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发帖数: 3978 | 1 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）时事分析家札卡瑞亚（Fareed Zakaria），18日在CNN网站
撰文评论欧债危机，认为现行主要解决方法都无法奏效，必须靠外汇存底丰厚的中国大
陆解囊相救。
在这篇题为「只有中国能救欧洲」的评论中，札卡瑞亚认为，希腊经济规模只占欧盟的
2%，就已经很难救，而意大利名列世界七大经济体，债务比西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰和
希腊加起来更多，简直是「大到不能救」。发行欧元债券或给予欧盟执委会更大的征税
权力，都不可行，因为欧洲各国政府和人民都反对；况且要让欧盟更加整合至少还要十
年，缓不济急。
札卡瑞亚认为，现在欧洲只是需要一笔够庞大的钱，解决燃眉之急，就像2008年美国砸
大钱救次贷风暴。显然欧盟拿不出这笔钱。札卡利亚建议，应思考由拥有3兆美元外汇
存底的中国大陆出手。
他的构想是，由国际货币基金（IMF）出面，向几个外汇存底丰厚的国家借钱，主要是
大陆，但也包含日本、巴西、沙特阿拉伯等国，借款总额可以是7500亿美元。国际货币
基金将能用这笔款项，救助深陷债务泥淖的欧洲国家，但同时也要设下前提，唯有该国
致力于财政改革，才能获得援助。
如果这个构想实现，可以想见，大陆将会负担半数以上的援助款。这样的发展隐含的意
义是：大陆的国际地位将大幅提升，在IMF取得更大发言权，法国籍的现任IMF总裁拉加
德很可能会是末代「非中国籍」总裁。
文中指出，回顾世界近代史，当主要强权为债务所累时，有能力贷款相救的国家就会崛
起。一次世界大战后，德国背负巨额战败赔款，其它欧洲国家也因战费庞大而负债累累
，此时美国适时相救，从而跻身强权之列。如今场景似曾相识，这次欧洲危机，正是中
国大陆成为国际社会负责任利害关系者的契机。
札卡瑞亚说，假使大陆没有出手援助欧洲，世人就要抓紧扶手坐稳了，因为未来局势将
因欧债危机而非常颠簸。
The European crisis that you've been reading about in the paper is worth
watching carefully. In fact, it has now morphed into something much bigger
than a European crisis - it could batter the entire global economy, which is
pretty fragile anyway.
You've read a lot about Greece, but the problem in Europe is Italy. Greece
is a nano-state; it makes up about 2% of the European Union's gross domestic
product. Italy, on the other hand, is one of the seven largest economies in
the world. Its debts are greater than those of Spain, Portugal, Ireland and
Greece combined. It has long been governed in an almost cartoonishly bad
manner. Italy is too big to fail but might also be too big to bail. Even
Germany might not be able to credibly bail it out along with all the other
troubled countries. So what can be done?
I don't think the leading proposals will work - creating Eurobonds or giving
Brussels broader power to tax. They're simply not going to happen.
Governments oppose it and people oppose it. And anyway, creating a tighter
European Union will take ten years. Markets needs reassurance now.
So I have a proposal: We need a big bazooka. Facing a similar crisis in 2008
, then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson talked about the need for a sum of
money large enough to scare markets into submission. A bazooka. But the
problem is this: All of the EU combined doesn't have one big enough. So who
has the kind of money Italy needs?
Take a guess? They have $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. Yup, China
. In fact, today, 10 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves are
sitting around across the globe. That is the only pile of money large enough
from which a bazooka could be fashioned.
The International Monetary Fund could go to the leading holders of such
reserves - China, but also Japan, Brazil and Saudi Arabia - and ask for a $
750 billion line of credit. The IMF would then extend that credit to the
troubled EU economies, but insist on closely monitoring economic reforms,
granting funds only as restructuring occurs. That credit line would more
than cover the borrowing costs of both Italy and Spain for two years. The
IMF terms would ensure that the two nations remained under pressure to
reform and set up conditions for growth.
Now, the Chinese would have to devote at least half the funds. What's in it
for them? A new global role. This could be the spur to giving China a much
larger say at the IMF. In fact, it might be necessary to make clear that
Christine Lagarde would be the last non-Chinese head of the organization.
In a world awash in debt, power shifts to creditors. After World War I,
European nations were battered by debts, and Germany was battered by
reparation payments. The only country that could provide credit was the
United States. For America, providing desperately needed cash to Europe was
its entry into the councils of power, a process that ultimately brought a
powerful new player inside the global tent. Today's crisis is China's
opportunity to become a "responsible stakeholder" in the global system. If
this doesn't happen, hold on to your seat because we're in for a rough ride. |
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