k***i 发帖数: 662 | 1 最近全世界对能源问题都非常关心。
俺也正在想,以后在哪个方向能混口饭吃,能吃多久, :p。
我抛砖引玉,请各路大侠多发表宝贵意见和建议。
先列3个讨论的清单吧:
1、能源问题哪个方向比较有前途? 石油、天然气、煤、生物质、核能、太阳能,等。
2、学化工的在能源这口能干些啥? 化工能成为解决能源问题的中心角色不?
3、能源问题在化工界将来会处于什么地位? | x*****o 发帖数: 62 | 2 现在做做天然气和煤还可以
【在 k***i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 最近全世界对能源问题都非常关心。 : 俺也正在想,以后在哪个方向能混口饭吃,能吃多久, :p。 : 我抛砖引玉,请各路大侠多发表宝贵意见和建议。 : 先列3个讨论的清单吧: : 1、能源问题哪个方向比较有前途? 石油、天然气、煤、生物质、核能、太阳能,等。 : 2、学化工的在能源这口能干些啥? 化工能成为解决能源问题的中心角色不? : 3、能源问题在化工界将来会处于什么地位?
| j***i 发帖数: 4975 | | b*******x 发帖数: 2469 | 4 个人感觉在未来的50年,甚至一百年里,石油都仍将是人类的主要能源。
其实普通人有个误解,石油只提供能源,其实现在生活中用的绝大部分塑料,甚至衣服
都来自石油化工,要寻找替代品还需要很长时间的。
其实核电站是比较不错的替代品,但是除了成本,技术要求高,负面因素也很多,一方
面本身安全,另一方面,一旦有战争,对方攻击的首先肯定是核电站。核电站多了,就
如同在自己的国家存了一堆定时炸弹。
美国的强大军事保证自己对石油价格的控制,传统的欧洲强国德国100%进口,法国95
%的原油进口,英国90%的原油进口,加上日本100%进口,所以美国政府这么积极去
打石油战争,加强对世界的控制(好听点,叫领导)。所以我猜美国政府也不愿意看到
真的有石油替代品的出现,同时也可以解释为什么欧洲对生物能源比美国的兴趣大多了
。(数据来自CIA factbook)
天然气现在大部分用来烧了,如果将来能用来合成乙烯,丙烯之类的,应该还是很有前
途的。(据说对于炼油厂来说,丙烯丙烷的混合物当燃料卖了比花大价钱分离出乙烯再
卖更挣钱的,因为好像95%的丙烯才能送去聚合,所以成本很高)
煤方面,看了今年春节国内的煤运输紧张 | j***i 发帖数: 4975 | 5 的确如此
至少在我们的有生之年,我们大概不需要担心石油问题。
石油的问题在于,对于我们这些搞化工的来讲,可挖掘的潜力实在是不太多。所以对于
这个坛子里的大量PHD来讲,这个行业倒不见得那么有前途。我觉得关于石油的研究会
逐渐转向如何从很贫的油矿里搞油,还有就是油沙,油页岩(不知道是不是这么翻译)
里搞那点儿油。
天然气是现在最好用的能源之一,好用,也干净,问题仍然是,储量不够多,据说比石
油稍微多点儿,可好象也就能多用几年。当然,这些不是我们需要担心的问题。对于搞
化工的来讲,问题还是有多少可挖掘的潜力。毕竟甲烷实在是太好用了。从甲烷开始几
乎什么都能弄,而且工艺都相当成熟。
煤肯定是重点之一。其实在七八十年代,很多煤的研究已经进行得相当深入。可惜八十
年代的石油危机使得这些都停下来了。最近的高油价使很多煤的应用,包括煤搞油,都
从经济上变成了可行的。虽然煤也是被用了几百年,可由于煤利用的复杂性,技术方面
应该是大有可为。
生物质现在很热,热得变态。不过我个人不看好这东西的前景,无论是玉米结杆还是蓝
藻或者是其他什么一年好几季的什么草,都不大有戏。一是太阳能能量密度太低,二是
这东西毕
【在 b*******x 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 个人感觉在未来的50年,甚至一百年里,石油都仍将是人类的主要能源。 : 其实普通人有个误解,石油只提供能源,其实现在生活中用的绝大部分塑料,甚至衣服 : 都来自石油化工,要寻找替代品还需要很长时间的。 : 其实核电站是比较不错的替代品,但是除了成本,技术要求高,负面因素也很多,一方 : 面本身安全,另一方面,一旦有战争,对方攻击的首先肯定是核电站。核电站多了,就 : 如同在自己的国家存了一堆定时炸弹。 : 美国的强大军事保证自己对石油价格的控制,传统的欧洲强国德国100%进口,法国95 : %的原油进口,英国90%的原油进口,加上日本100%进口,所以美国政府这么积极去 : 打石油战争,加强对世界的控制(好听点,叫领导)。所以我猜美国政府也不愿意看到 : 真的有石油替代品的出现,同时也可以解释为什么欧洲对生物能源比美国的兴趣大多了
| h***y 发帖数: 1657 | 6
前途都是虚的。在你我有生之年,还是石油。
过程工程都需要化工的。Petroleum refining可是化工人大舞台。具体的有催化剂开发
和评价,这个跟学校做的没什么大区别,就是有technician帮你动手了。
过程设计和中试操作;
过程模拟
过程控制
即使是upstream,也好多
化工的人在做,设计呀,模拟呀。你自己不就做upstream么。
一般意义上化工界不包括refining,而是包括从乙烯开始的petrochemical,
到speciality/pharmceutical。
【在 k***i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 最近全世界对能源问题都非常关心。 : 俺也正在想,以后在哪个方向能混口饭吃,能吃多久, :p。 : 我抛砖引玉,请各路大侠多发表宝贵意见和建议。 : 先列3个讨论的清单吧: : 1、能源问题哪个方向比较有前途? 石油、天然气、煤、生物质、核能、太阳能,等。 : 2、学化工的在能源这口能干些啥? 化工能成为解决能源问题的中心角色不? : 3、能源问题在化工界将来会处于什么地位?
| w*****n 发帖数: 77 | 7 感觉石油最不可替代的地方在于它是最重要的化工原料,几乎所有塑料,布,都
来自于石油,作为燃料(汽油,柴油等)烧掉是最浪费的方式。
其实化工学科起源和大发展都是因为石油工业的崛起`。化工在石油工业中的地
位是无可比拟的,说一句不客气的,在石油工业中,civil,mechanical,industry
engineering都是给学化工的打杂的
1。学化工可以在石油上游upstream(钻井,采油)找到工作,一是做上游流程设计,
一是做采油技术开发,其实很多学校的化工和石油工程系都是一起的(u of Houston,
Kansas state)
2。石油下游更是学化工的天下,一是做炼油厂流程设计,一是做催化剂。
现在总体来说在下游找工作形势还可以(Houston area),但是大伙有些悲观。因为
不知新总统(估计奥巴马会赢)上台后是否真的会起诉,迫害(prosecute&persecute
,我老板说的)石油公司,同时大力打压油价,让石油工业重蹈1980年大萧条时的惨状,
哎,在此乱世,只能自求多福了。。。。。 | B***t 发帖数: 115 | 8 1980年的萧条太惨了
刚去开会,遇到一个台湾夫妇,其中的那个大姐和我聊天说到那次大萧条
整个houston只有搬走和逃难的人,公司和店家几乎都完蛋了
10个邻居,9个搬
现在她也担心你说的事情会重演,有点恐怖
【在 w*****n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 感觉石油最不可替代的地方在于它是最重要的化工原料,几乎所有塑料,布,都 : 来自于石油,作为燃料(汽油,柴油等)烧掉是最浪费的方式。 : 其实化工学科起源和大发展都是因为石油工业的崛起`。化工在石油工业中的地 : 位是无可比拟的,说一句不客气的,在石油工业中,civil,mechanical,industry : engineering都是给学化工的打杂的 : 1。学化工可以在石油上游upstream(钻井,采油)找到工作,一是做上游流程设计, : 一是做采油技术开发,其实很多学校的化工和石油工程系都是一起的(u of Houston, : Kansas state) : 2。石油下游更是学化工的天下,一是做炼油厂流程设计,一是做催化剂。 : 现在总体来说在下游找工作形势还可以(Houston area),但是大伙有些悲观。因为
| k***i 发帖数: 662 | 9 你觉得能源公司大萧条会重演?
除非全美国都想搬到外国去
【在 B***t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 1980年的萧条太惨了 : 刚去开会,遇到一个台湾夫妇,其中的那个大姐和我聊天说到那次大萧条 : 整个houston只有搬走和逃难的人,公司和店家几乎都完蛋了 : 10个邻居,9个搬 : 现在她也担心你说的事情会重演,有点恐怖
| k***i 发帖数: 662 | 10
油价起伏是可能的。但是不管哪个总统上台,石油工业大萧条在近期是不可能的。原因很简单,现在对全世界来说,能源都是个战略资源。任何一个大国都离不开石油工业,无论是能源还是化工原料供应,无论是军事还是民用事业,都离不开。更重要的是,石油作为一种不可再生战略资源,各大国为此斗得不可开交,必要的情况下不惜用武力。在这种境况下,石油工业会大萧条么? 总而言之,短时间的油价起伏是有可能的,但在近15年内,大萧条的可能性微乎其微
【在 w*****n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 感觉石油最不可替代的地方在于它是最重要的化工原料,几乎所有塑料,布,都 : 来自于石油,作为燃料(汽油,柴油等)烧掉是最浪费的方式。 : 其实化工学科起源和大发展都是因为石油工业的崛起`。化工在石油工业中的地 : 位是无可比拟的,说一句不客气的,在石油工业中,civil,mechanical,industry : engineering都是给学化工的打杂的 : 1。学化工可以在石油上游upstream(钻井,采油)找到工作,一是做上游流程设计, : 一是做采油技术开发,其实很多学校的化工和石油工程系都是一起的(u of Houston, : Kansas state) : 2。石油下游更是学化工的天下,一是做炼油厂流程设计,一是做催化剂。 : 现在总体来说在下游找工作形势还可以(Houston area),但是大伙有些悲观。因为
| | | z*h 发帖数: 773 | 11 Future energy and fuels.
Primary energy sources: solar, wind, nuclear, fossil fuels (coal, oil,
natural gas), geothermal, tidy, hydroelectricity, biomass
Intermediates: Transportation fuels (liquid fuels or hydrogen or electricity
), electricity,
Utilization: thermal energy, kinetic energy (transportation), materials
When we draw interaction lines, the answers are very clear.
We will produce electricity from a number of primary energy sources, but low
energy storage density of batteries cannot s | z*h 发帖数: 773 | 12 Chemical engineering will have a second spring through biomass R&D. It is
like chemical engineering role for petroleum industry. | k***i 发帖数: 662 | 13 Your opinion is pretty important. Thanks.
Currently, the most challenging problem with biomass is that it's producing, gathering, and treating efficiency is pretty low, and therefore the net energy produced is much smaller than the energy used today, which is dominated by fossil fuel. Besides, the global energy demand may increase greatly in the future. Biomass is good and important, but many reports said, and I would agree, that it's very challenging that biomass can meet the requirement of ene
【在 z*h 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Future energy and fuels. : Primary energy sources: solar, wind, nuclear, fossil fuels (coal, oil, : natural gas), geothermal, tidy, hydroelectricity, biomass : Intermediates: Transportation fuels (liquid fuels or hydrogen or electricity : ), electricity, : Utilization: thermal energy, kinetic energy (transportation), materials : When we draw interaction lines, the answers are very clear. : We will produce electricity from a number of primary energy sources, but low : energy storage density of batteries cannot s
| z*h 发帖数: 773 | 14 Biomass growth, harvesting and transportation is not so terrible. It is why
dedicated bioenergy plants are better than agricultural waste (corn stover)
due to higher biomass yield (ton per acre).
Bioconversion and chemoconversion of biomass will co-exist for a long time
for different feedstocks. Now most of biofuels Research and start-up are
garbage. It is like dotcom. Most will die, only several ones will survive
and fluorish in the future. | c**********r 发帖数: 15 | 15 As of last month, much cheaper crude oil is spreading out around the world
and thus, is going to darken the future of biomass. | z*h 发帖数: 773 | 16 Price is one of key factors. Carbon credit will be important.
If low oil prize will kill biorefinery, after its death, you will pay triple
prize for oils again.
The history is repeating itself! Look at 1970's -- relationship between oil,
food, and biofuels. | w***a 发帖数: 1159 | 17 从infrastructure的角度来讲,至少将来20-50年石油还是主要的engergy source. 要改
变这个system 太难了,trucking and oiling companies have most powerful lobbis
ts in the congress. Carbon credits 是一群政客搞出来的, engineers 从来都是在
how to figure out the marriage between pure science and politics.
(感觉这话不该在这说,不过没兴趣出去跟人吵,大家见谅吧。)
【在 k***i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 最近全世界对能源问题都非常关心。 : 俺也正在想,以后在哪个方向能混口饭吃,能吃多久, :p。 : 我抛砖引玉,请各路大侠多发表宝贵意见和建议。 : 先列3个讨论的清单吧: : 1、能源问题哪个方向比较有前途? 石油、天然气、煤、生物质、核能、太阳能,等。 : 2、学化工的在能源这口能干些啥? 化工能成为解决能源问题的中心角色不? : 3、能源问题在化工界将来会处于什么地位?
| c**********r 发帖数: 15 | 18 I totoally agree with you....carbon credit is itslef of a business created
by greedy businessmen and craby politician.
发信人: whata (Noinker), 信区: ChemEng
标 题: Re: 能源问题
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 5 18:18:03 2008), 转信
从infrastructure的角度来讲,至少将来20-50年石油还是主要的engergy source. 要改
变这个system 太难了,trucking and oiling companies have most powerful lobbis
ts in the congress. Carbon credits 是一群政客搞出来的, engineers 从来都是在
how to figure out the marriage between pure science and politics.
(感觉这话不该在这说,不过没兴趣出去跟人吵,大家见谅吧。) | r***e 发帖数: 6 | 19 你是搞Biomass的?自卖自夸吧
electricity
low
【在 z*h 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Future energy and fuels. : Primary energy sources: solar, wind, nuclear, fossil fuels (coal, oil, : natural gas), geothermal, tidy, hydroelectricity, biomass : Intermediates: Transportation fuels (liquid fuels or hydrogen or electricity : ), electricity, : Utilization: thermal energy, kinetic energy (transportation), materials : When we draw interaction lines, the answers are very clear. : We will produce electricity from a number of primary energy sources, but low : energy storage density of batteries cannot s
| j***i 发帖数: 4975 | 20 BIOMASS还会热几年的
出来的成果也会比当年的NANO什么的多
不过恐怕只能做能源的辅助
而且是政治上正确却不赚钱的辅助能源
【在 r***e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 你是搞Biomass的?自卖自夸吧 : : electricity : low
| | | b*******r 发帖数: 62 | 21 for chemical engineers with background in thermal fluid, computer simulation
and mathematics, upstream in oil industry is a good area to go. | M****l 发帖数: 1954 | 22 这几个都多少占一点边,但怎么往上游里扎阿?有什么指教么?
simulation
【在 b*******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : for chemical engineers with background in thermal fluid, computer simulation : and mathematics, upstream in oil industry is a good area to go.
| y*****a 发帖数: 580 | 23 That may not be true. For upstream, it requires more than those. Chemical
engineers could be working in the lab for say chemical flooding (ASP etc.),
but require many more knowledge in other topics, particularly geology and
multi-phase fluid flow in porous media to do a typical petroleum engineering
job. The chance for a general chemical engineer to be in upstream, (except
doing experiments), is comparably slim. I would say, thermodynamics and
simulation are useful, but not in a petroleum en
【在 b*******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : for chemical engineers with background in thermal fluid, computer simulation : and mathematics, upstream in oil industry is a good area to go.
| k***i 发帖数: 662 | 24 good point
【在 y*****a 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : That may not be true. For upstream, it requires more than those. Chemical : engineers could be working in the lab for say chemical flooding (ASP etc.), : but require many more knowledge in other topics, particularly geology and : multi-phase fluid flow in porous media to do a typical petroleum engineering : job. The chance for a general chemical engineer to be in upstream, (except : doing experiments), is comparably slim. I would say, thermodynamics and : simulation are useful, but not in a petroleum en
| y*****a 发帖数: 580 | 25 1. In the next ~100 years, the majority energy will be coming from Natural
Gas, Coal and Oil, Please see EIA annual outlook. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html
2. Nuclear can be another source (particularly fission, not fussion).
3. The next would hydropower.
4. Biomass, solar, wind can at most be supplymentary.
Why I say that? This is because of the electricity peak usage/capacity.
Nuclear, hydropower and others required to be in the form of electricity.
Another thing is the ecomomi
【在 k***i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 最近全世界对能源问题都非常关心。 : 俺也正在想,以后在哪个方向能混口饭吃,能吃多久, :p。 : 我抛砖引玉,请各路大侠多发表宝贵意见和建议。 : 先列3个讨论的清单吧: : 1、能源问题哪个方向比较有前途? 石油、天然气、煤、生物质、核能、太阳能,等。 : 2、学化工的在能源这口能干些啥? 化工能成为解决能源问题的中心角色不? : 3、能源问题在化工界将来会处于什么地位?
| y*****a 发帖数: 580 | 26 I read through the thread and there were several error that I am pretty sure.
(1) Natural gas. The resource and reserve is huge and more than enough for
200 years at current comsumption speed, and will be more important than oil.
Downside is that transportation require lots of energy. However, it would
partly be compensated by the higher heat value per weight, and produce
about 50% less CO2 per unit of energy (and thus cleanest among oil, coal and
gas.)
(2) Nuclear. Fussion is very short-te | S*****n 发帖数: 6055 | 27 in the long term, energy would come from solar or fusion, and chemicals
would come from CO2, but I don't know how long it would take...
95
【在 b*******x 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 个人感觉在未来的50年,甚至一百年里,石油都仍将是人类的主要能源。 : 其实普通人有个误解,石油只提供能源,其实现在生活中用的绝大部分塑料,甚至衣服 : 都来自石油化工,要寻找替代品还需要很长时间的。 : 其实核电站是比较不错的替代品,但是除了成本,技术要求高,负面因素也很多,一方 : 面本身安全,另一方面,一旦有战争,对方攻击的首先肯定是核电站。核电站多了,就 : 如同在自己的国家存了一堆定时炸弹。 : 美国的强大军事保证自己对石油价格的控制,传统的欧洲强国德国100%进口,法国95 : %的原油进口,英国90%的原油进口,加上日本100%进口,所以美国政府这么积极去 : 打石油战争,加强对世界的控制(好听点,叫领导)。所以我猜美国政府也不愿意看到 : 真的有石油替代品的出现,同时也可以解释为什么欧洲对生物能源比美国的兴趣大多了
| k***i 发帖数: 662 | 28
Remark: fusion and fission are inversely used here.
【在 y*****a 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I read through the thread and there were several error that I am pretty sure. : (1) Natural gas. The resource and reserve is huge and more than enough for : 200 years at current comsumption speed, and will be more important than oil. : Downside is that transportation require lots of energy. However, it would : partly be compensated by the higher heat value per weight, and produce : about 50% less CO2 per unit of energy (and thus cleanest among oil, coal and : gas.) : (2) Nuclear. Fussion is very short-te
| b*******r 发帖数: 62 | 29
Chemical
,
engineering
except
【在 y*****a 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : That may not be true. For upstream, it requires more than those. Chemical : engineers could be working in the lab for say chemical flooding (ASP etc.), : but require many more knowledge in other topics, particularly geology and : multi-phase fluid flow in porous media to do a typical petroleum engineering : job. The chance for a general chemical engineer to be in upstream, (except : doing experiments), is comparably slim. I would say, thermodynamics and : simulation are useful, but not in a petroleum en
| l*w 发帖数: 646 | 30 不敢苟同。
Chemical
,
engineering
except
【在 y*****a 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : That may not be true. For upstream, it requires more than those. Chemical : engineers could be working in the lab for say chemical flooding (ASP etc.), : but require many more knowledge in other topics, particularly geology and : multi-phase fluid flow in porous media to do a typical petroleum engineering : job. The chance for a general chemical engineer to be in upstream, (except : doing experiments), is comparably slim. I would say, thermodynamics and : simulation are useful, but not in a petroleum en
| | | m*******r 发帖数: 295 | 31 I am quite sure that, at the time when Franklin Orr, Fred Stalkup,
Gary Pope, Larry Lake, Goerge Hirasaki etc in school, petroleum engineering
is already an independent displine.
It would be easier for chemical
engineers joining upstream a few decades ago, when petroleum engineering, as
a decipline was not born yet. Examples are, Franklin Orr, Fred Stalkup,
Gary Pope, Larry Lake, Goerge Hirasaki etc. are all chemical engineers.
That simply because, there is no petroleum engineering as an indipe
【在 y*****a 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I read through the thread and there were several error that I am pretty sure. : (1) Natural gas. The resource and reserve is huge and more than enough for : 200 years at current comsumption speed, and will be more important than oil. : Downside is that transportation require lots of energy. However, it would : partly be compensated by the higher heat value per weight, and produce : about 50% less CO2 per unit of energy (and thus cleanest among oil, coal and : gas.) : (2) Nuclear. Fussion is very short-te
| y*****a 发帖数: 580 | 32 oops, Fred is about 85 now ... Even though Aziz is said having a PE degree
who is about 72, I still would count PE as dependent discipline. At least
PE in UT is very young, beginning not long before Gary and Larry joined.
engineering
as
【在 m*******r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I am quite sure that, at the time when Franklin Orr, Fred Stalkup, : Gary Pope, Larry Lake, Goerge Hirasaki etc in school, petroleum engineering : is already an independent displine. : : It would be easier for chemical : engineers joining upstream a few decades ago, when petroleum engineering, as : a decipline was not born yet. Examples are, Franklin Orr, Fred Stalkup, : Gary Pope, Larry Lake, Goerge Hirasaki etc. are all chemical engineers. : That simply because, there is no petroleum engineering as an indipe
| o*********5 发帖数: 894 | |
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