g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 1 “影子库存”，伤害了房屋市场
How 'Shadow Inventory' Hurts the Housing Market
April 11, 2012 chicago tribune
[破题: One of the main reasons ...."shadow inventory"]
While it's bad for broad recovery, inventory is great for buyers
There were high hopes that 2012 would be the year when the housing market,
battered by the explosion of the real estate bubble, would finally begin to
recover. But any good news on the housing front has quickly been followed by
negative news.
For instance, it was reported in February that foreclosure rates were down
and the number of new houses being built was up. For the first time since
2006, housing prices in some markets actually rose.
But February's optimism is fading fast. One of the main reasons for this is
what is referred to as a "shadow inventory" of houses, or foreclosed homes
that remain on the market. And according to a recent report, an additional 1
.25 million foreclosed homes are set to flood the market following a year-
long investigation into lending practices.
----------------------
[Cleveland] This is horrible news for the housing market, as it will push
prices lower and lower. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,
foreclosed homes that have been on the market for less than a year sell for
35 percent below value. If homes remain on the market for more than a year,
their price drops 60 percent.
----------------------
[CoreLogic] "The shadow inventory remains persistent even though many other
metrics of the housing market show signs of improvement," says Anand
Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic, a consulting firm that closely
tracks the real estate market. "As we move into what is traditionally the
peak selling season for real estate, servicers will certainly be watching
closely to see if now is the time to move more inventory out of the shadows."
----------------------
[NAR] A persistent problem.Walter Molony, a public affairs officer at the
National Association of Realtors (NAR), says the shadow inventory problem
has been a prime factor in the inability of the market to gain traction.
"The high level of foreclosures in recent years dampened overall home
prices, and they have now over-corrected in most areas," Molony says. "Homes
are selling for less than replacement-construction costs in most of the
country, and in most areas, it's now cheaper to buy than rent a comparably-
sized property."
Molony adds that he believes the market is in a "period of transition" and
that signs point to a sea change in shadow inventory. "Inventory levels have
been trending down since setting a record of just over four million in July
2007. Currently, there are 2.43 million homes on the market, which is 19.3
percent below a year ago," Molony says. "Shadow inventory ... also is
declining. Currently, it's projected at 2.1 million, down from 2.5 million
two years ago."
-----------------------------
[John Hopkins]
A shadow inventory explosion? Roger Staiger, an adjunct faculty member of
the John Hopkins Carey Business School, warns that the numbers cited by the
National Association of Realtors are too low. He believes the shadow
inventory is going to get much, much bigger.
"I'm predicting another 2 million homes to be foreclosed," says Staiger. "I
would say there are about 3 million homes close to foreclosure or in
distress, meaning owners are 90 days delinquent on payments."
---------------
According to Staiger, two factors will contribute to the explosion of the
shadow market. The first is a tepid economic recovery. "If you look at wage
growth over the last five or six years, it's almost nonexistent," he says. "
We are on the way to $5 gas. Things are not getting better. Unemployment is
getting better because more people quit looking for jobs."
The second factor is what he characterizes as a repeat of the mistakes that
led to the subprime crisis. Right now, the U.S. government is offering
loans with interest payments of less than 4 percent in an attempt to spur
real estate growth. Buyers are not required to provide large down payments
to qualify for these loans.
"The bank owns the home and we're renting from the bank," Staiger says. "We
're renters masquerading as owners. Ownership is a state of mind. People
convince themselves, 'I'm underwater, but I'm still an owner.'"
---------------------------
[NAR's Molony]
A buyer's market. While the shadow inventory is bad for the broader housing
market, it's an advantage for buyers. As long as there are foreclosed homes
on the market, prices will be depressed. According to NAR's Molony, these
low prices will help to clear out homes stuck in the shadows.
"Foreclosures are selling quickly because they are heavily discounted," he
says. "Investors and first-time buyers are competing for lower-priced homes
in most of the country, with frequent reports of multiple bidding in the low
price ranges."
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-04-11/news/sns-20120411 | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 2 [1] 在上篇文章,
"约翰霍普金斯凯里商学院兼职教师罗杰Staiger警告，全国房地产经纪人协会所列举的
数字是太低了。他认为影子库存多的多。"
"Roger Staiger, an adjunct faculty member of the John Hopkins Carey Business
School, warns that the numbers cited by the National Association of
Realtors are too low. He believes the shadow inventory is going to get much,
much bigger."
[2] 去年发生的事情可能影响我们对全国房地产经纪人协会所列数据的看法
NAR: National Association of Realtors
NAR今日将2007-2010年的二手房总销量下调14%，由早先公布的2060万幢降至1770
万幢。NAR指出的修正理由包括：美国人口统计局改变了收集数据的方法，人口构成的
转变和某些二手房销售被计算了两次。
NAR就数据修正事宜已与政府部门和私营房地产业专家进行了磋商，其中包括美联
储、美国住房和城市发展部、美国抵押贷款银行协会、美国住房建筑商协会、抵押贷款
业巨头房利美和房地美，以及加州数据公司CoreLogic。
今年初CoreLogic率先对NAR的二手房年化销量数据提出了质疑。 CoreLogic估计，
NAR至少将2010年的二手房销量高估了15%。
今天如此大幅修正可能影响到经济学家对NAR数据的看法。此外，此事还可能影响
那些依据NAR的数据来制定雇佣和扩张计划的公司。
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/nar-existing-home-sales | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 3 到底什么是影子库存 ???
*** What is shadow inventory?
This is important, as lowering the total inventory of houses for sale is how
prices stabilize and sales volume moves higher.
Most buyers are familiar with ordinary inventory — houses listed for sale
with real estate agents or by owners. Unfortunately, shadow inventory adds
to the backlog. It includes bank-owned real estate, distressed houses not
yet for sale, short sales and delinquencies that have not yet defaulted.
Foreclosure properties are also in the shadow inventory.
These houses will eventually become part of the total supply for sale.
Although there is no official count, estimates of potential shadow inventory
run as high as 10 million.
That’s not all. There’s also a huge overhang of underwater homeowners —
whose houses are worth as much as 25 percent less than what is owed. The
owners don’t qualify for a mortgage modification. They may be delinquent
but aren’t in default.
Two-thirds of all U.S. houses have mortgages. Of those, an estimated 21 to
29 percent of the mortgages are underwater, or up to 16 million houses. When
prices finally do rise, we can expect many of these no-longer-underwater
owners to put their houses up for sale. If only one in three do, that is
another 5 million homes in inventory.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/barry-ritholtz-on-investing-house | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 4 'Shadow' inventory weighs on Chicago housing market
by Angie Chung
June 01, 2011
Springtime is usually boom time for those looking to buy or sell a home. But
in 2011, three years into the worst housing bust since the Great Depression
, both buyers and sellers are sitting on their hands.
Take Nikkie Hartmann, whose Albany Park condo is now worth $80,000, 44
percent less than the $143,000 she paid for it in 2006. She carries a
mortgage for 100 percent of the purchase price.
“I am so underwater in my loan that I don’t believe I will be able to sell
it for many years,” Hartmann said. She is renting out the property for $
850 per month.
Hartmann’s condo is part of the “shadow” inventory of properties waiting
to be sold if and when home prices rebound. Other properties in this
category are delinquent, in foreclosure or bank-owned.
......
http://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=187007 | T*R
发帖数: 36302 | 5 你累不累啊？
你都影子多少年了？
估计再过10年你就该下手买房了？
那时候我老二估计都要上大学了。
人生苦短，还是该享受的就享受，研究是研究不出房子的。
房子有两个价值，一个是提供安居的地方，一个是投资。
前者应该是房子的主要价值所在。
你不能因为投资的价值就忽略了房子的基本功能。
这也是任何年代任何时候都有人买房的原因。 | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 6
我喜欢学习，不觉得累.
General topic. Nothing personal.
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 你累不累啊？
: 你都影子多少年了？
: 估计再过10年你就该下手买房了？
: 那时候我老二估计都要上大学了。
: 人生苦短，还是该享受的就享受，研究是研究不出房子的。
: 房子有两个价值，一个是提供安居的地方，一个是投资。
: 前者应该是房子的主要价值所在。
: 你不能因为投资的价值就忽略了房子的基本功能。
: 这也是任何年代任何时候都有人买房的原因。
| N********n
发帖数: 13236 | 7 其实你可以把这些东西放到blog里面，或者开个讨论website，适当收费，这样喜欢的
人自己去看，不喜欢的人也不用点进来，说不定还能发个小财。。。。
：）
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: 我喜欢学习，不觉得累.
: General topic. Nothing personal.
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 8 有理,我改标题. 不喜欢的人也不点进来la
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: 其实你可以把这些东西放到blog里面，或者开个讨论website，适当收费，这样喜欢的
: 人自己去看，不喜欢的人也不用点进来，说不定还能发个小财。。。。
: ：）
| a****9
发帖数: 642 | 9 这事好事啊，你赶快买，赶快卖，能flip多少算多少，能搞一大笔。 | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 10 我只是搜索数据和分析. 怎么做,买或卖或投机 是另一个主题.
【在 a****9 的大作中提到】
: 这事好事啊，你赶快买，赶快卖，能flip多少算多少，能搞一大笔。
| | | x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 11 租房子不享受么？
1500刀，tides building，one bedroom，you get everything you want， plus
service
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 你累不累啊？
: 你都影子多少年了？
: 估计再过10年你就该下手买房了？
: 那时候我老二估计都要上大学了。
: 人生苦短，还是该享受的就享受，研究是研究不出房子的。
: 房子有两个价值，一个是提供安居的地方，一个是投资。
: 前者应该是房子的主要价值所在。
: 你不能因为投资的价值就忽略了房子的基本功能。
: 这也是任何年代任何时候都有人买房的原因。
| x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 12 不需要。
一个人很重要的一点是要学会share和giving。
一点点小知识就藏起来开博客赚未必，开玩笑ok啦，serious起来真是恶心啊。
要赚未必去对簿博彩好了，有一次对簿，1:5，我100未必，500进账。
不要管别人怎么想，一个人出来总会有人喜欢，有人不喜欢，这么多人，难免观点不一
样。
比如买房，如果你enjoy 大空间，那ok，你得选择只有house，如果你觉得空间不是主
要concern，为什么不rent呢。
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: 有理,我改标题. 不喜欢的人也不点进来la
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 13
100% agree.
Well said !
【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】
: 不需要。
: 一个人很重要的一点是要学会share和giving。
: 一点点小知识就藏起来开博客赚未必，开玩笑ok啦，serious起来真是恶心啊。
: 要赚未必去对簿博彩好了，有一次对簿，1:5，我100未必，500进账。
: 不要管别人怎么想，一个人出来总会有人喜欢，有人不喜欢，这么多人，难免观点不一
: 样。
: 比如买房，如果你enjoy 大空间，那ok，你得选择只有house，如果你觉得空间不是主
: 要concern，为什么不rent呢。
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 14 [1] foreclosure: Illinois and Chicago metro areas
(calculated by dividing the number of homes with a mortgage in each area by
the sum of completed foreclosures for the prior 12 months) as of April 2012.
The five states with the highest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of
all mortgaged homes were:
Florida (12.0 percent),
New Jersey (6.7 percent),
Illinois (5.3 percent),
Nevada (5.0 percent) and
New York (5.0 percent).
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/corelogic-reports-66,000
Chicago, at 6.3%, had the fourth-highest foreclosure inventory among 25
large metro areas, trailing Tampa – St Petersburg (12.4%), Orlando (12.3%)
and Nassau-Suffolk NY (6.8%).
http://www.chicagonow.com/homeward-bound-west/2012/05/chicago-f
[2] underwater
Posted: May 24, 2012 10:48 AM CDT Updated: May 31, 2012 10:49 AM CDT
CHICAGO (FOX Chicago News) -
Almost 700,000 houses in the Chicago area are underwater on their mortgages.
In Cook County alone, 44.5% of houses are underwater
.....
http://www.myfoxchicago.com/story/18615393/almost-700000-chicag | c*******u
发帖数: 1269 | 15 换个角度想想，影子库存也许是客观存在的，但和房价的关系是怎么样的就不好说了。
如果用正常思维那市场是供求关系决定的，但华尔街从来不是fair play的。希拉里曾
经问格林斯潘美国的赤字外债那么高怎么办，格林斯潘的回答大概意思是没关系，都是
数字。房子的bubble破了，老百姓还不起贷款把房子交给了银行，于是银行手里拿到了
一个房子和一个负的数字。负的数字加起来有多少呢？谁也说不清，因为层层保险把这
个数字弄得复杂无比。但是没关系，只是数字而已，大笔一划这个数字就消失了，美名
其曰quantative erasing。为什么要划掉这个数字？因为符合各路老板的利益，房市稳
定，经济才能稳定，股市才能繁荣，总统才能再选上，花街才能发奖金。。银行要确保
房市稳定宁可多养几年收回的房子。或者把房子租出去，或者减低贷款让老百姓自己养
房子。 | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 16 You have a good point: the banks and gov have been manipulating the housing
market.
Actually, the manipulation delays the inevitable and prolongs any truly
sustainable recovery.
【在 c*******u 的大作中提到】
: 换个角度想想，影子库存也许是客观存在的，但和房价的关系是怎么样的就不好说了。
: 如果用正常思维那市场是供求关系决定的，但华尔街从来不是fair play的。希拉里曾
: 经问格林斯潘美国的赤字外债那么高怎么办，格林斯潘的回答大概意思是没关系，都是
: 数字。房子的bubble破了，老百姓还不起贷款把房子交给了银行，于是银行手里拿到了
: 一个房子和一个负的数字。负的数字加起来有多少呢？谁也说不清，因为层层保险把这
: 个数字弄得复杂无比。但是没关系，只是数字而已，大笔一划这个数字就消失了，美名
: 其曰quantative erasing。为什么要划掉这个数字？因为符合各路老板的利益，房市稳
: 定，经济才能稳定，股市才能繁荣，总统才能再选上，花街才能发奖金。。银行要确保
: 房市稳定宁可多养几年收回的房子。或者把房子租出去，或者减低贷款让老百姓自己养
: 房子。
| t******2
发帖数: 2265 | 17 i like this topic, pay attention on mid-east next month, that maybe take
housing down it's 2nd leg. | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 18
Can you zkss ?
【在 t******2 的大作中提到】
: i like this topic, pay attention on mid-east next month, that maybe take
: housing down it's 2nd leg.
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 19 October 25, 2012
Judith Ruiz-Branch
Foreclosures in Illinois are up 34 percent in the third quarter compared to
the same time last year, according to a report released by RealtyTrac, a
firm that monitors foreclosures. Chicago’s increase is in stark contrast to
national figures, which are showing a downward trend.
Geoff Smith, the Executive Director from the Institute of Housing Studies,
says Chicago-area market is processing a backlog of foreclosures, so the
numbers can seem misleading.
http://www.wbez.org/foreclosure-rate-chicago-area-buck-nation%E
by
2012.
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: [1] foreclosure: Illinois and Chicago metro areas
: (calculated by dividing the number of homes with a mortgage in each area by
: the sum of completed foreclosures for the prior 12 months) as of April 2012.
: The five states with the highest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of
: all mortgaged homes were:
: Florida (12.0 percent),
: New Jersey (6.7 percent),
: Illinois (5.3 percent),
: Nevada (5.0 percent) and
: New York (5.0 percent).
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | | | | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 21 Four-Quarter Percent Change in FHFA MSA-Level House Price Indexes (All
Transactions Index, 2012Q2)
--------------------------------------
Year Quarter Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL (MSAD)
2012 2 -3.34
2012 1 -3.55
2011 4 -5.54
2011 3 -6.19
2011 2 -6.07
2011 1 -5.29
2010 4 -3.58
2010 3 -3.85
2010 2 -8.14
2010 1 -10.51
2009 4 -9.05
2009 3 -8.77
2009 2 -8.71
2009 1 -7.15
2008 4 -7.25
2008 3 -6.52
2008 2 -3.78
2008 1 -1.72
2007 4 -0.55
2007 3 0.24
2007 2 2.05
2007 1 3.55
2006 4 4.69
2006 3 6.24
http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=216&Type=compare&Area1=16 | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 22 Per the latest release of the Case-Shiller Index:
Average home prices in the Chicago area in July rose 2.7 percent from June,
but remain slightly below year-ago levels.
The increase represents the fourth consecutive month of improvement in local
pricing.
Additionally, on average, July condo prices rose 2.3 percent from June (but
still were 4.7 percent lower than in July 2011).
http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=resources&id=8844650
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.chicagorealestatedaily.com/article/20120925/CRED0701
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 23 “影子库存”，伤害了房屋市场
How 'Shadow Inventory' Hurts the Housing Market
April 11, 2012 chicago tribune
[破题: One of the main reasons ...."shadow inventory"]
While it's bad for broad recovery, inventory is great for buyers
There were high hopes that 2012 would be the year when the housing market,
battered by the explosion of the real estate bubble, would finally begin to
recover. But any good news on the housing front has quickly been followed by
negative news.
For instance, it was reported in February that foreclosure rates were down
and the number of new houses being built was up. For the first time since
2006, housing prices in some markets actually rose.
But February's optimism is fading fast. One of the main reasons for this is
what is referred to as a "shadow inventory" of houses, or foreclosed homes
that remain on the market. And according to a recent report, an additional 1
.25 million foreclosed homes are set to flood the market following a year-
long investigation into lending practices.
----------------------
[Cleveland] This is horrible news for the housing market, as it will push
prices lower and lower. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,
foreclosed homes that have been on the market for less than a year sell for
35 percent below value. If homes remain on the market for more than a year,
their price drops 60 percent.
----------------------
[CoreLogic] "The shadow inventory remains persistent even though many other
metrics of the housing market show signs of improvement," says Anand
Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic, a consulting firm that closely
tracks the real estate market. "As we move into what is traditionally the
peak selling season for real estate, servicers will certainly be watching
closely to see if now is the time to move more inventory out of the shadows."
----------------------
[NAR] A persistent problem.Walter Molony, a public affairs officer at the
National Association of Realtors (NAR), says the shadow inventory problem
has been a prime factor in the inability of the market to gain traction.
"The high level of foreclosures in recent years dampened overall home
prices, and they have now over-corrected in most areas," Molony says. "Homes
are selling for less than replacement-construction costs in most of the
country, and in most areas, it's now cheaper to buy than rent a comparably-
sized property."
Molony adds that he believes the market is in a "period of transition" and
that signs point to a sea change in shadow inventory. "Inventory levels have
been trending down since setting a record of just over four million in July
2007. Currently, there are 2.43 million homes on the market, which is 19.3
percent below a year ago," Molony says. "Shadow inventory ... also is
declining. Currently, it's projected at 2.1 million, down from 2.5 million
two years ago."
-----------------------------
[John Hopkins]
A shadow inventory explosion? Roger Staiger, an adjunct faculty member of
the John Hopkins Carey Business School, warns that the numbers cited by the
National Association of Realtors are too low. He believes the shadow
inventory is going to get much, much bigger.
"I'm predicting another 2 million homes to be foreclosed," says Staiger. "I
would say there are about 3 million homes close to foreclosure or in
distress, meaning owners are 90 days delinquent on payments."
---------------
According to Staiger, two factors will contribute to the explosion of the
shadow market. The first is a tepid economic recovery. "If you look at wage
growth over the last five or six years, it's almost nonexistent," he says. "
We are on the way to $5 gas. Things are not getting better. Unemployment is
getting better because more people quit looking for jobs."
The second factor is what he characterizes as a repeat of the mistakes that
led to the subprime crisis. Right now, the U.S. government is offering
loans with interest payments of less than 4 percent in an attempt to spur
real estate growth. Buyers are not required to provide large down payments
to qualify for these loans.
"The bank owns the home and we're renting from the bank," Staiger says. "We
're renters masquerading as owners. Ownership is a state of mind. People
convince themselves, 'I'm underwater, but I'm still an owner.'"
---------------------------
[NAR's Molony]
A buyer's market. While the shadow inventory is bad for the broader housing
market, it's an advantage for buyers. As long as there are foreclosed homes
on the market, prices will be depressed. According to NAR's Molony, these
low prices will help to clear out homes stuck in the shadows.
"Foreclosures are selling quickly because they are heavily discounted," he
says. "Investors and first-time buyers are competing for lower-priced homes
in most of the country, with frequent reports of multiple bidding in the low
price ranges."
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-04-11/news/sns-20120411 | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 24 [1] 在上篇文章,
"约翰霍普金斯凯里商学院兼职教师罗杰Staiger警告，全国房地产经纪人协会所列举的
数字是太低了。他认为影子库存多的多。"
"Roger Staiger, an adjunct faculty member of the John Hopkins Carey Business
School, warns that the numbers cited by the National Association of
Realtors are too low. He believes the shadow inventory is going to get much,
much bigger."
[2] 去年发生的事情可能影响我们对全国房地产经纪人协会所列数据的看法
NAR: National Association of Realtors
NAR今日将2007-2010年的二手房总销量下调14%，由早先公布的2060万幢降至1770
万幢。NAR指出的修正理由包括：美国人口统计局改变了收集数据的方法，人口构成的
转变和某些二手房销售被计算了两次。
NAR就数据修正事宜已与政府部门和私营房地产业专家进行了磋商，其中包括美联
储、美国住房和城市发展部、美国抵押贷款银行协会、美国住房建筑商协会、抵押贷款
业巨头房利美和房地美，以及加州数据公司CoreLogic。
今年初CoreLogic率先对NAR的二手房年化销量数据提出了质疑。 CoreLogic估计，
NAR至少将2010年的二手房销量高估了15%。
今天如此大幅修正可能影响到经济学家对NAR数据的看法。此外，此事还可能影响
那些依据NAR的数据来制定雇佣和扩张计划的公司。
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/nar-existing-home-sales | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 25 到底什么是影子库存 ???
*** What is shadow inventory?
This is important, as lowering the total inventory of houses for sale is how
prices stabilize and sales volume moves higher.
Most buyers are familiar with ordinary inventory — houses listed for sale
with real estate agents or by owners. Unfortunately, shadow inventory adds
to the backlog. It includes bank-owned real estate, distressed houses not
yet for sale, short sales and delinquencies that have not yet defaulted.
Foreclosure properties are also in the shadow inventory.
These houses will eventually become part of the total supply for sale.
Although there is no official count, estimates of potential shadow inventory
run as high as 10 million.
That’s not all. There’s also a huge overhang of underwater homeowners —
whose houses are worth as much as 25 percent less than what is owed. The
owners don’t qualify for a mortgage modification. They may be delinquent
but aren’t in default.
Two-thirds of all U.S. houses have mortgages. Of those, an estimated 21 to
29 percent of the mortgages are underwater, or up to 16 million houses. When
prices finally do rise, we can expect many of these no-longer-underwater
owners to put their houses up for sale. If only one in three do, that is
another 5 million homes in inventory.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/barry-ritholtz-on-investing-house | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 26 'Shadow' inventory weighs on Chicago housing market
by Angie Chung
June 01, 2011
Springtime is usually boom time for those looking to buy or sell a home. But
in 2011, three years into the worst housing bust since the Great Depression
, both buyers and sellers are sitting on their hands.
Take Nikkie Hartmann, whose Albany Park condo is now worth $80,000, 44
percent less than the $143,000 she paid for it in 2006. She carries a
mortgage for 100 percent of the purchase price.
“I am so underwater in my loan that I don’t believe I will be able to sell
it for many years,” Hartmann said. She is renting out the property for $
850 per month.
Hartmann’s condo is part of the “shadow” inventory of properties waiting
to be sold if and when home prices rebound. Other properties in this
category are delinquent, in foreclosure or bank-owned.
......
http://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=187007 | T*R
发帖数: 36302 | 27 你累不累啊？
你都影子多少年了？
估计再过10年你就该下手买房了？
那时候我老二估计都要上大学了。
人生苦短，还是该享受的就享受，研究是研究不出房子的。
房子有两个价值，一个是提供安居的地方，一个是投资。
前者应该是房子的主要价值所在。
你不能因为投资的价值就忽略了房子的基本功能。
这也是任何年代任何时候都有人买房的原因。 | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 28
我喜欢学习，不觉得累.
General topic. Nothing personal.
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 你累不累啊？
: 你都影子多少年了？
: 估计再过10年你就该下手买房了？
: 那时候我老二估计都要上大学了。
: 人生苦短，还是该享受的就享受，研究是研究不出房子的。
: 房子有两个价值，一个是提供安居的地方，一个是投资。
: 前者应该是房子的主要价值所在。
: 你不能因为投资的价值就忽略了房子的基本功能。
: 这也是任何年代任何时候都有人买房的原因。
| N********n
发帖数: 13236 | 29 其实你可以把这些东西放到blog里面，或者开个讨论website，适当收费，这样喜欢的
人自己去看，不喜欢的人也不用点进来，说不定还能发个小财。。。。
：）
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: 我喜欢学习，不觉得累.
: General topic. Nothing personal.
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 30 有理,我改标题. 不喜欢的人也不点进来la
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: 其实你可以把这些东西放到blog里面，或者开个讨论website，适当收费，这样喜欢的
: 人自己去看，不喜欢的人也不用点进来，说不定还能发个小财。。。。
: ：）
| | | a****9
发帖数: 642 | 31 这事好事啊，你赶快买，赶快卖，能flip多少算多少，能搞一大笔。 | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 32 我只是搜索数据和分析. 怎么做,买或卖或投机 是另一个主题.
【在 a****9 的大作中提到】
: 这事好事啊，你赶快买，赶快卖，能flip多少算多少，能搞一大笔。
| x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 33 租房子不享受么？
1500刀，tides building，one bedroom，you get everything you want， plus
service
【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 你累不累啊？
: 你都影子多少年了？
: 估计再过10年你就该下手买房了？
: 那时候我老二估计都要上大学了。
: 人生苦短，还是该享受的就享受，研究是研究不出房子的。
: 房子有两个价值，一个是提供安居的地方，一个是投资。
: 前者应该是房子的主要价值所在。
: 你不能因为投资的价值就忽略了房子的基本功能。
: 这也是任何年代任何时候都有人买房的原因。
| x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 34 不需要。
一个人很重要的一点是要学会share和giving。
一点点小知识就藏起来开博客赚未必，开玩笑ok啦，serious起来真是恶心啊。
要赚未必去对簿博彩好了，有一次对簿，1:5，我100未必，500进账。
不要管别人怎么想，一个人出来总会有人喜欢，有人不喜欢，这么多人，难免观点不一
样。
比如买房，如果你enjoy 大空间，那ok，你得选择只有house，如果你觉得空间不是主
要concern，为什么不rent呢。
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: 有理,我改标题. 不喜欢的人也不点进来la
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 35
100% agree.
Well said !
【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】
: 不需要。
: 一个人很重要的一点是要学会share和giving。
: 一点点小知识就藏起来开博客赚未必，开玩笑ok啦，serious起来真是恶心啊。
: 要赚未必去对簿博彩好了，有一次对簿，1:5，我100未必，500进账。
: 不要管别人怎么想，一个人出来总会有人喜欢，有人不喜欢，这么多人，难免观点不一
: 样。
: 比如买房，如果你enjoy 大空间，那ok，你得选择只有house，如果你觉得空间不是主
: 要concern，为什么不rent呢。
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 36 [1] foreclosure: Illinois and Chicago metro areas
(calculated by dividing the number of homes with a mortgage in each area by
the sum of completed foreclosures for the prior 12 months) as of April 2012.
The five states with the highest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of
all mortgaged homes were:
Florida (12.0 percent),
New Jersey (6.7 percent),
Illinois (5.3 percent),
Nevada (5.0 percent) and
New York (5.0 percent).
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/corelogic-reports-66,000
Chicago, at 6.3%, had the fourth-highest foreclosure inventory among 25
large metro areas, trailing Tampa – St Petersburg (12.4%), Orlando (12.3%)
and Nassau-Suffolk NY (6.8%).
http://www.chicagonow.com/homeward-bound-west/2012/05/chicago-f
[2] underwater
Posted: May 24, 2012 10:48 AM CDT Updated: May 31, 2012 10:49 AM CDT
CHICAGO (FOX Chicago News) -
Almost 700,000 houses in the Chicago area are underwater on their mortgages.
In Cook County alone, 44.5% of houses are underwater
.....
http://www.myfoxchicago.com/story/18615393/almost-700000-chicag | c*******u
发帖数: 1269 | 37 换个角度想想，影子库存也许是客观存在的，但和房价的关系是怎么样的就不好说了。
如果用正常思维那市场是供求关系决定的，但华尔街从来不是fair play的。希拉里曾
经问格林斯潘美国的赤字外债那么高怎么办，格林斯潘的回答大概意思是没关系，都是
数字。房子的bubble破了，老百姓还不起贷款把房子交给了银行，于是银行手里拿到了
一个房子和一个负的数字。负的数字加起来有多少呢？谁也说不清，因为层层保险把这
个数字弄得复杂无比。但是没关系，只是数字而已，大笔一划这个数字就消失了，美名
其曰quantative erasing。为什么要划掉这个数字？因为符合各路老板的利益，房市稳
定，经济才能稳定，股市才能繁荣，总统才能再选上，花街才能发奖金。。银行要确保
房市稳定宁可多养几年收回的房子。或者把房子租出去，或者减低贷款让老百姓自己养
房子。 | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 38 You have a good point: the banks and gov have been manipulating the housing
market.
Actually, the manipulation delays the inevitable and prolongs any truly
sustainable recovery.
【在 c*******u 的大作中提到】
: 换个角度想想，影子库存也许是客观存在的，但和房价的关系是怎么样的就不好说了。
: 如果用正常思维那市场是供求关系决定的，但华尔街从来不是fair play的。希拉里曾
: 经问格林斯潘美国的赤字外债那么高怎么办，格林斯潘的回答大概意思是没关系，都是
: 数字。房子的bubble破了，老百姓还不起贷款把房子交给了银行，于是银行手里拿到了
: 一个房子和一个负的数字。负的数字加起来有多少呢？谁也说不清，因为层层保险把这
: 个数字弄得复杂无比。但是没关系，只是数字而已，大笔一划这个数字就消失了，美名
: 其曰quantative erasing。为什么要划掉这个数字？因为符合各路老板的利益，房市稳
: 定，经济才能稳定，股市才能繁荣，总统才能再选上，花街才能发奖金。。银行要确保
: 房市稳定宁可多养几年收回的房子。或者把房子租出去，或者减低贷款让老百姓自己养
: 房子。
| t******2
发帖数: 2265 | 39 i like this topic, pay attention on mid-east next month, that maybe take
housing down it's 2nd leg. | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 40
Can you zkss ?
【在 t******2 的大作中提到】
: i like this topic, pay attention on mid-east next month, that maybe take
: housing down it's 2nd leg.
| | | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 41 October 25, 2012
Judith Ruiz-Branch
Foreclosures in Illinois are up 34 percent in the third quarter compared to
the same time last year, according to a report released by RealtyTrac, a
firm that monitors foreclosures. Chicago’s increase is in stark contrast to
national figures, which are showing a downward trend.
Geoff Smith, the Executive Director from the Institute of Housing Studies,
says Chicago-area market is processing a backlog of foreclosures, so the
numbers can seem misleading.
http://www.wbez.org/foreclosure-rate-chicago-area-buck-nation%E
by
2012.
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: [1] foreclosure: Illinois and Chicago metro areas
: (calculated by dividing the number of homes with a mortgage in each area by
: the sum of completed foreclosures for the prior 12 months) as of April 2012.
: The five states with the highest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of
: all mortgaged homes were:
: Florida (12.0 percent),
: New Jersey (6.7 percent),
: Illinois (5.3 percent),
: Nevada (5.0 percent) and
: New York (5.0 percent).
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 43 Four-Quarter Percent Change in FHFA MSA-Level House Price Indexes (All
Transactions Index, 2012Q3)
Year Quarter Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL (MSAD)
2012 3 -2.36
2012 2 -2.88
2012 1 -3.60
2011 4 -5.65
2011 3 -6.33
2011 2 -6.19
2011 1 -5.34
2010 4 -3.74
2010 3 -3.98
2010 2 -8.30
2010 1 -10.69
2009 4 -9.20
2009 3 -8.90
2009 2 -8.82
2009 1 -7.21
2008 4 -7.33
2008 3 -6.60
2008 2 -3.84
2008 1 -1.77
2007 4 -0.59
2007 3 0.20
http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=216&Type=compare&Area1=16 | q****e
发帖数: 3660 | 44 what does the data mean?
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: Four-Quarter Percent Change in FHFA MSA-Level House Price Indexes (All
: Transactions Index, 2012Q3)
: Year Quarter Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL (MSAD)
: 2012 3 -2.36
: 2012 2 -2.88
: 2012 1 -3.60
: 2011 4 -5.65
: 2011 3 -6.33
: 2011 2 -6.19
: 2011 1 -5.34
| g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 45
There is a link on the bottom.
【在 q****e 的大作中提到】
: what does the data mean?
| q****e
发帖数: 3660 | 46
这是说房子价格还在向下走？
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: There is a link on the bottom.
| E********M
发帖数: 1372 | 47 起码要给个摘要啊, 最好是中文翻译好的.
to
by
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: “影子库存”，伤害了房屋市场
: How 'Shadow Inventory' Hurts the Housing Market
: April 11, 2012 chicago tribune
: [破题: One of the main reasons ...."shadow inventory"]
: While it's bad for broad recovery, inventory is great for buyers
: There were high hopes that 2012 would be the year when the housing market,
: battered by the explosion of the real estate bubble, would finally begin to
: recover. But any good news on the housing front has quickly been followed by
: negative news.
: For instance, it was reported in February that foreclosure rates were down
|
|
