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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 2 债券价格下跌，利率上升
债券价格下跌，利率上升
What determines the 债券价格 (price of a bond) in the open market?
Put simply, bond prices fluctuate on the open market in response to supply
and demand for the bond. The price of a bond is determined by discounting
the expected cash flow to the present using a discount rate. Three primary
influences on bond pricing on the open market are
(1) supply and demand,
(2) age-to-maturity and
(3) credit ratings.
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So, 联邦10年债券 ... only (1) supply and demand, | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 3 债券价格下跌，利率上升
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So, 联邦10年债券 ... (1) supply and demand,
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"supply and demand" ... 更多供应联邦债券 -> 债券价格下跌，利率上升
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特朗普打印新的联邦债券 -> 供应更多的债券 -> 债券价格下跌 -> 债券利息上升
耶伦告诉特朗普，请不要这样做
Yellen: We don't need a spending binge to reach full employment
Yellen: Fiscal policy not obviously needed for full employment Yellen:
Fiscal policy not obviously needed for full employment
Wednesday, 14 Dec 2016 | 2:48 PM ET | 01:37
The labor market has improved enough that the United States will not need
big U.S. government spending to reach full employment, Fed Chair Janet
Yellen said Wednesday.
"I would judge that the degree of slack has diminished. I would say at this
point that fiscal policy is not, obviously, needed to help us get up to full
employment," the central bank chief told reporters after the Fed hiked
interest rates.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/14/yellen-we-dont-need-a-spending-binge-to-reach-full-employment.html | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 4 特朗普他会做什么？
(1) U.S. government spending -> 打印新的联邦债券, -> 债券利息上升 -> 债券泡
沫破裂 ? 也许不会破裂, 但带来金融市场不稳定.
(2) NOT 打印新的联邦债券, same as before, boiling frog ... | g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 5
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在12月份的美联储会议上，几乎所有的参会人都反对特朗普的扩张性财政政策，认为这
会给美国的经济增长带来严重影响。
但是在国会的法令正式出台之前，美联储暂时无法预测经济的走势。
去年12月14日，美联储在10内第二次加息，联邦基金利率将从0.25%~0.5%调升到0.5%~0
.75%。其中包括提高超额存款储备金利率至0.75%和提高逆回购利率至0.50%，并且在今
年，还会有3次加息。而现在特朗普的政策充满不确定性，美联储暂时只能保持观望。
他希望使用积极的财政来扩大赤字、增加支出，从而刺激经济。但是美联储也在通过加息
让美元回流美国，同时收紧货币，避免特朗普的政策导致通货膨胀。
现在特朗普支持的减税政策等于是变相增加支出，美联储必须加息来保持平衡。
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: 特朗普他会做什么？
: (1) U.S. government spending -> 打印新的联邦债券, -> 债券利息上升 -> 债券泡
: 沫破裂 ? 也许不会破裂, 但带来金融市场不稳定.
: (2) NOT 打印新的联邦债券, same as before, boiling frog ...
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