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发帖数: 33885 | 2 老外总结中国的三十年的成绩比中国人写得还好！
Classified By: Ambassador Clark T. Randt. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)
¶1. (C) January 1, 2009, marked the 30th Anniversary of the
establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and the
People’s Republic of China. This anniversary followed the PRC commemoration
of roughly 30 years of China’s “reform and opening” policy under Deng
Xiaoping, which led to China’s staggering economic growth.
¶2. (C) Thirty years ago, China was just emerging from the nightmare of
the Cultural Revolution and 30 years of fratricidal misrule. China’s
economy was crippled by years of disastrous policies like the Great Leap
Forward. The population was coming to terms with the world’s most draconian
population controls enacted in 1976 after decades of Maoist state-subsidies
encouraging large families. Chinese foreign relations tended to be more
influenced by ideological yardsticks than economic links since China had
very few commercial links with the outside world. In 1979, Chinese urbanites
on average made the equivalent of five dollars per month.
¶3. (C) Just as no one in 1979 would have predicted that China would
become the United States’ most important relationship in thirty years, no
one today can predict with certainty where our relations with Beijing will
be thirty years hence. However, given the current significance of the
bilateral relationship and the risk of missing opportunities to jointly
address ongoing and predictable future challenges, below we look at trends
currently affecting China with an eye to how those trends might affect
relations. Several issues leap out, including China’ insatiable resource
needs, our growing economic interdependence, China’s rapid military
modernization, a surge in Chinese nationalism, China’s demographic
challenges, and the PRC’s increasing influence and confidence on the world
stage.
¶4. (C) China has been plagued over the millennia by unforeseen events
that devastated formerly prosperous regimes. Mongol invasion, the Black
Death, uncountable peasant uprisings, warlords, tax revolts, communist
dictatorship, colonialism, famine, earthquakes and other plagues were
largely unforeseen by the China watchers of the past. This report focuses
generally on more optimistic projections. Given China’s history, however,
the United States should also gird itself for the possibility that China
will fall short of today’s mostly sanguine forecasts.
Resource Consumption |
