c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 1 The four reports are closely related.
(1) Regional Jets Struggle For Traction In China. Aviation Week, Apr 25,
2011.
This report is for subscribers only. It talks about regional jets. But most
important, it mentions airports in China are mostly underutilized. I will go
to a library tonight and make a few quotes available tomorrow.
My point is return on investment (ROI) dimishes over time even under the
best of circumstances. China seems profligate and prodigal to me.
(2) George Magnus, China Risks Credit-Fuelled Minsky Moment; Reluctance to
hit growth or alienate workers might lead to a premature call of victory
over inflation. Financial Times, May 4, 2011.
http://gonzaloraffoinfonews.blogspot.com
/2011/05/china-risks-credit-fuelled-minsky.html
("it is worth asking whether China’s investment-intensive growth model, and
developments in credit and inflation, are pushing it towards its own
version of a “Minsky moment” – named after the US economist who warned
that the process of leverage always culminates in instability")
Note:
(a) Hyman Minsky
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_Minsky
(1919-1996; professor of economics at Washington University in St. Louis;
section 4 Financial theory)
(b) total social financing 社会融资总量
(c) Paragraph 5 suggests that excessive credit may be the underlying,
indigenous cause of inflation.
(3) Michael Forsythe and Luzi Ann Javier, In China, Factories vs. Farms;
More farmland is giving way to manufacturing, and food supplies are
threatened. Bloomberg BusinessWeek,
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine
/content/11_19/b4227009958677.htm
Note:
(a) Chonche Group 中车集团
http://www.zhongche.com.cn/
Somehow URL is spelled differently from the real name of the state-owned
enterprise.
(b) QIAN Keming 钱克明 (中国农业科学院国产局)
(4) John Bussey, Analysis: Will Costs Drive Firms Home? Wall Street Journal,
May 5, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240
52748704322804576303470987508998.html
Note:
(a) slough (n; akin to Middle High German slouche ditch)
"1a : a place of deep mud or mire
b also slew or slue \ˈslü\ (1) : swamp (2) : an inlet on a river; also
: backwater (3) : a creek in a marsh or tide flat
2: a state of moral degradation or spiritual dejection"
www.m-w.com
The pronunciation and etymology of this slough is different from another
noun of the same spelling buit means "something that may be shed or cast off
."
(b) The report states, "Employment at manufacturing companies in the U.S.
may have dropped over the last 40 years. But those companies have gotten a
lot more productive, and manufacturing output has actually risen. Companies
are making — in the U.S. — more than double what they did four decades ago
."
Based on the same (BCG), Financial Times today has a report that carries
illustrations, one of which is a historical graph showing between 1972 and
2011 (probably the 40 years referred to in the WSJ report) US manufacturing
"employment" has dropped by ~60% but "output" has soared to ~240% of the
1972 level.
(c) The report purposefully cites GlobalFoudries twice, as if it is an
American company. It is not--AMD owns less than 20% of teh company; the rest
goes to UAE.
(d) The bar chart of the WSj report shows in2010, on average Chinese worker'
s productivity and comepensation are 29% and 31%, respectively, of American
worker. In other words, there is little economic advantage to outsource to
China.
(e) The report is based on
Press release: Made in the USA, Again: Manufacturing Is Expected to Return
to America as China’s Rising Labor Costs Erase Most Savings from Offshoring
. Boston Consulting Group, May 5, 2011.
http://www.bcg.com/media
/PressReleaseDetails.aspx?id=tcm:12-75973
("With Chinese wages rising at about 17 percent per year and the value of
the yuan continuing to increase * * * manufacturing in China will be only 10
to 15 percent cheaper than in the U.S.—even before inventory and shipping
costs are considered. After those costs are factored in, the total cost
advantage will drop to single digits or be erased entirely, Sirkin said")
* Victoria, Texas
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria,_Texas
(located thirty miles inland from the Gulf of Mexico; known as "The
Crossroads" because of its location within a two-hour drive of Corpus
Christi, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin)
* I introduced Mr Sirkin to you in a Apr 15, 2011 posting titled "China's
Inflation" in this board. |
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