m**i
发帖数: 8296 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 astrology 讨论区 】
发信人: muai (暮霭：俯仰之间 Q *^O^* P 告别一年狗血~`), 信区: astrology
标 题: 哇哇哇哇！NCBI里找到的占星科技文！~`
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jan 29 01:06:27 2011, 美东)
刚刚看到的。。。思考占星是否伪科学的时候随手一搜。。。哇、哇、哇~`
J Clin Epidemiol. 2006 Sep;59(9):964-9. Epub 2006 Jul 11.
Testing multiple statistical hypotheses resulted in spurious associations: a
study of astrological signs and health.
Austin PC, Mamdani MM, Juurlink DN, Hux JE.
Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, G1 06, 2075 Bayview Avenue,
Toronto, Ontario, M4N 3M5 Canada. p**********[email protected]
Comment in:
* J Clin Epidemiol. 2006 Sep;59(9):871-2.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To illustrate how multiple hypotheses testing can produce
associations with no clinical plausibility.
STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a study of all 10,674,945 residents
of Ontario aged between 18 and 100 years in 2000. Residents were randomly
assigned to equally sized derivation and validation cohorts and classified
according to their astrological sign. Using the derivation cohort, we
searched through 223 of the most common diagnoses for hospitalization until
we identified two for which subjects born under one astrological sign had a
significantly higher probability of hospitalization compared to subjects
born under the remaining signs combined (P<0.05).
RESULTS: We tested these 24 associations in the independent validation
cohort. Residents born under Leo had a higher probability of
gastrointestinal hemorrhage (P=0.0447), while Sagittarians had a higher
probability of humerus fracture (P=0.0123) compared to all other signs
combined. After adjusting the significance level to account for multiple
comparisons, none of the identified associations remained significant in
either the derivation or validation cohort.
CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses illustrate how the testing of multiple, non-
prespecified hypotheses increases the likelihood of detecting implausible
associations. Our findings have important implications for the analysis and
interpretation of clinical studies.
PMID: 16895820 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16895820 |
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