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发帖数: 18403 | 1 12 flippable races:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/03/02/us/politics/senat
May 13
West Virginia
Republicans are optimistic that their likely nominee, Representative Shelley
Moore Capito, can break the Democrats' longtime lock on the state's Senate
seats. Natalie Tennant, West Virginia's secretary of state and the likely
Democratic nominee, will distance herself from President Obama.
Could flip to Republican Democratic Retiring Senator John D. Rockefeller IV
has held the seat since 1985. NO INCUMBENT
May 20
Arkansas
Senator Mark Pryor is trying to hold on to his seat in what will be a
difficult race against Tom Cotton, a freshman representative who is
supported by both Tea Party and establishment factions.
Could flip to Republican Democratic Mark Pryor
has held the seat
since 2003.
May 20
Georgia
Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn, could be the
Democrats' best chance to pick up a seat. Ms. Nunn, who led the Points of
Light Foundation, the volunteer group inspired by the elder George Bush, is
positioning herself as a centrist. Some Republicans fear that a crowded G.O.
P. contest will produce a nominee too far to the right to win in November.
Could flip to Democratic Republican Retiring Senator Saxby Chambliss has
held the seat since 2003. NO INCUMBENT
May 20
Kentucky
The Kentucky G.O.P. primary has gotten a lot of national attention, but
Senator Mitch McConnell is expected to survive a challenge from Matt Bevin,
a Louisville businessman with endorsements from several conservative groups.
At the same time, Bluegrass Democrats are united around a candidate for the
first time in decades. Polls indicate that Alison Lundergan Grimes,
Kentucky's secretary of state, could give the most powerful Republican in
the Senate a strong challenge in November.
Could flip to Democratic Republican Mitch McConnell
has held the seat
since 1985.
May 20
Oregon
Senator Jeff Merkley could be in for a tougher-than-expected race in deep-
blue Oregon if a Portland pediatric neurosurgeon, Monica Wehby, wins the
Republican nomination. She is a moderate who could resonate with Oregonians
suffering from Obama fatigue.
Likely Democratic Democratic Jeff Merkley
has held the seat
since 2009.
June 3
Iowa
The race for the G.O.P. nomination to replace retiring Senator Tom Harkin is
a test case for the battle between Tea Party and establishment Republicans.
Representative Bruce Braley, running unopposed for the Democratic
nomination, is hoping that a bruising Republican primary will help keep the
seat on the Democratic side of the aisle.
Could flip to Republican Democratic Retiring Senator Tom Harkin has held the
seat since 1985. NO INCUMBENT
June 3
Montana
The state offers a pickup opportunity for Republicans, but the appointment
of Lt. Gov. John Walsh to serve the remaining term of Max Baucus, who
resigned to be United States ambassador to China, gives Democrats a chance
against the Republican candidate, Representative Steve Daines.
Could flip to Republican Democratic John Walsh
has held the seat
since 2014.
June 3
New Mexico
Tom Udall is making his first bid for re-election after winning the seat
held for more than 30 years by Pete V. Domenici, a Republican who retired in
2009.
Likely Democratic Democratic Tom Udall
has held the seat
since 2009.
June 3
South Dakota
The seat of retiring Senator Tim Johnson should be a strong pickup
opportunity for Republicans, but Larry Pressler's decision to run as an
independent inserts a dose of uncertainty into the race. Mr. Pressler is a
moderate Republican who served three terms in the Senate before losing his
seat to Mr. Johnson in 1996. Former Gov. Mike Rounds is the likely
Republican nominee, and Rick Weiland, a former aide to Tom Daschle, is the
lone Democrat in the race.
Could flip to Republican Democratic Retiring Senator Tim Johnson has held
the seat since 1997. NO INCUMBENT
June 10
Maine
In November, Susan Collins, one of the last moderate Republicans in the
Senate, will go up against Shenna Bellows, a Democrat who has been called "
the Elizabeth Warren of civil liberties." It is unclear if Ms. Bellows poses
a serious threat.
Solidly Republican Republican Susan Collins
has held the seat
since 1997.
June 10
Virginia
The entry of Ed Gillespie, former chairman of the Republican National
Committee, into the G.O.P. race has added a level of intensity to what
otherwise would have been a cakewalk for the Democratic incumbent, Mark
Warner.
Likely Democratic Democratic Mark Warner
has held the seat
since 2009.
June 24
Colorado
Colorado’s Senate race became more competitive at the end of February, when
Representative Cory Gardner, a top-tier Republican, announced he would
challenge the incumbent, Mark Udall. Until that point, Mr. Udall had
attracted only opponents whose campaigns were struggling to gain traction.
Could flip to Republican Democratic Mark Udall
has held the seat
since 2009.
Aug. 5
Michigan
The race to replace Senator Carl Levin, a Democrat who is retiring, is
shaping up to be a pickup opportunity for the Republicans. Terri Lynn Land,
Michigan's former secretary of state and the likely Republican nominee, has
a slight lead over Representative Gary Peters, the Democrat.
Could flip to Republican Democratic Retiring Senator Carl Levin has held the
seat since 1979. NO INCUMBENT
Aug. 12
Minnesota
Senator Al Franken may have a credible challenger with the entry of the
multimillionaire businessman Mike McFadden, a Republican, into the race.
Likely Democratic Democratic Al Franken
has held the seat
since 2009.
Aug. 19
Alaska
In 2008, Mark Begich was the first Democrat elected to the Senate from
Alaska since 1974. He may not make it another term. Republicans Dan Sullivan
and Mead Treadwell are competing for establishment support against Joe
Miller, the Tea Party candidate who famously beat Senator Lisa Murkowski in
the 2010 primary only to lose to her write-in campaign during the general
election.
Could flip to Republican Democratic Mark Begich
has held the seat
since 2009.
Sept. 9
New Hampshire
Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s hold on New Hampshire will become uncertain if
Scott Brown, a former senator in Massachusetts, enters the Republican
primary. Otherwise, Ms. Shaheen is expected to keep the seat.
Likely Democratic Democratic Jeanne Shaheen
has held the seat
since 2009.
Nov. 4 **
Louisiana
A Democrat in an increasingly red state, Senator Mary L. Landrieu narrowly
won the 1996 and 2002 elections, and was re-elected in 2008 with help from a
large African-American turnout. The Republican establishment candidate,
Representative Bill Cassidy, must beat the Tea Party favorite, Rob Maness,
before facing Ms. Landrieu. |
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