d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 1 Originally Posted by gc_on_demand
Visa allocation chief mentioned in AILA comment that USCIS knows visa usage
pattern. Which means that they know pending I 140 for EB1 in pipeline and
they also know that average time to get approve new I 140 is X months ( 4
months ) so they know if person files in May 2011 chances are rare that he/
she can get GC from 2011 quota.I am not saying is that applicant can't get
it but when u look at I 485 complexity and add scrutinity on EB1 I 140 its
more than 4 months to get GC from start to finish without any RFE.
That is why they are so confident to release quota now. which may bring date
so much forward so that can attract new cases and move back dates to
certain point in time. Specially this is how DOS does for all family based
CP cases. When they think they have 10k visas coming they move dates to
cover 15k out of which 12k may reply on time and they always have control to
retrogress dates if they run out of visas.
Big question is how far they want to go and get new cases. If they don't go
upto Mid 2008 in next 1 year , Eb2 will loose some visas to EB3 and dates
for EB2 will be "C" , if they go with some calculated guess and usage
pattern + buffer they should go well into early 2009 with in next 1 year.
Very well said.
1. DOS has to move fast in May to test if there are hidden demand (ppl who
missed 07/2007 filing, porting, dependent filing). Those new filing cannot
get be approved before October 2011. So they can move up to Nov/Dec 2006
safely in May. Also DOS/CIS, who communicate with each other for sure, will
know they should process those pre-adjudicated cased first to clear the
inventory.
2. In June, July, August, they could be cautious but still move ahead up to
March 2007.
3. September is critical, as that time, if DOS doesn't want to waste any
quota, (100% CIS cannot approve any cased filed in that month), they have to
move to a point to get all quota used. Based on 12K/half year, or 12K/year
from EB1, say 20K be safe this year from EB1. 7K from EB2 ROW as last year,
8K from EB3, 0 from FB (EB2 get only 10k/4 last year as 10K FB is divided by
Eb1/2/3/4), and normal 2.8K for EB2 I/C each (6K total), there are total
41K possibly for EB2 I/C.
4. Porting (6K this year), New filing (ppl who missed 07/07 with PD before
07/07), could have a negative efffect
5. The inventory for EB2 I/C is about 34K before 07/2007 (based on DOS
October/2010 and CIS inventory)
6. This is very close. Will DOS move beyond 07/2007 a little to allow new
filings (those won't get approved in Sept) and also make CIS easier to clear
all 07/2007? This will be a judgement call. I am 50/50 on that.
7. There are many factors that will play in the scenario.. But I am sure EB2
I/C 09/2011 PD will be pass
May 2007 100%
June 2007 80%
July 2007 60%
Sept 2007 30%
Nov 2007 10%
Dec 2007 or Current 0% (DOS/CIS learned the lesson) | p***e
发帖数: 29053 | |
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