China EB2 will not retrogress in October - EB23版

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EB23版 - China EB2 will not retrogress in October

相关主题
● 2012年配额1月用完，为什么？	● where to get h-1b approval notice for 485
● 17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 are waiting	● 行动起来！if you are current in June.
● EB2-India & China Movement Analysis	● EB3 PD Quarterly Progress Prediction based on new data
● EB2 Demand for Oct'2007 to Sept'2010	● 关于移民批准数据的问题，请帮助分析。
● 只有一种可能：就是目前2012已经批了大量名额，老中2800也悬了	● 广州CP，排期未到，大使馆就备案了。(老猪说的)
● CO 对VB的预测	● FY2010 perm data
● July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis ZT	● 中国EB2的形势
● 律师关于最近EB2的批准情况	● 剩余名额

相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: eb2话题: china话题: cases话题: pd话题: he

进入EB23版参与讨论

(共1页)

r********n
发帖数: 1162

Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
around 1000 maximum.
2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
can get through all the paperwork ready in October. DOS determines the PD
based on how many cases are ready for approval, not how many cases are in
their database. It is a huge difference between "approvable cases" and "
pending cases".
3. China EB3-EB2 upgrade is negligible. The poring will not increase China
EB2 demand at all. Totally China has around 5000 EB3 and very few of them
are porting.
4. His thinks that China EB2 will not retrogess at all. He believes
China EB2 will move forward steadily from now.
I think what he said makes sense. There is no reason to retrogress for China
EB2. But it's hard to predict Mr.O's next move. He never followed the law and he made wrong decisions based on his personal understanding and interpolation. Let's see what will happen in October.

r**********u
发帖数: 1343

Very reasonable,
Hopefully O is not crazy

a****l
发帖数: 8211

那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
进build up inventory.

all.
EB2
cases

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases

y*****w
发帖数: 1350

The attorney's judgment and reasoning should be directed to O by NIU.

S*******r
发帖数: 11017

You are very lucky to have such an accessible and insightful lawyer.
Most of XDJMs here including me are stuck with stupid lawyers that don't
have any clue of what's going on.
Thanks again for sharing!

y***n
发帖数: 6764

你律师专业的解释基本上符合了我的猜想：如果这次绿潮能解决中国07大潮的话，中印
的EB2应该松绑了。

all.
EB2
cases

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

S*******r
发帖数: 11017

还得看O傻如何预测大潮后EB2C的需求啊
要是那B死活认定EB2C每年需求还大于2800
肯定不肯给我们松绑啊

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 你律师专业的解释基本上符合了我的猜想：如果这次绿潮能解决中国07大潮的话，中印
: 的EB2应该松绑了。
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases

c**s
发帖数: 3796

If not retrogress in October, aug/sep VB will be small movement.

t*****e
发帖数: 2228

恕欧直言，您这也太消极了，横竖都不好，难道八九月大前进十月倒退才是好消息才是
可信的消息？如果不前进就停滞好了。anyway..

【在 a****l 的大作中提到】

: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases

y***n
发帖数: 6764

怎么是坏消息？PD越靠后就说明之前的case都解决了。07大潮过后，中国本身的perm
case是不多的，尤其是09年。
可以这么说：只要07大潮能在今年暑假被解决，接下来的两年里，中国的EB2是能自给
自足的，这难道不是好消息么？

【在 a****l 的大作中提到】

: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases

相关主题
● CO 对VB的预测	● where to get h-1b approval notice for 485
● July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis ZT	● 行动起来！if you are current in June.
● 律师关于最近EB2的批准情况	● EB3 PD Quarterly Progress Prediction based on new data
进入EB23版参与讨论

x****e
发帖数: 641

我看了也很担心。火箭扇，你的律师让你准备485的东西了吗？如果没有，那不是好消
息。

【在 a****l 的大作中提到】

: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases

J********t
发帖数: 240

我个人认为不是松绑，而是中国EB2大致可以自给自足，如果有大量的so，我们才分一
些，如果so数量不够巨大的话，我们用自己名额也在老印前面。

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 你律师专业的解释基本上符合了我的猜想：如果这次绿潮能解决中国07大潮的话，中印
: 的EB2应该松绑了。
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases

S*******r
发帖数: 11017

假设9月放水到2008年初（算大的前进了吧）
然后事实情形是2007-2008EB2C没多少人交485（3000人左右）
这样的话10月VB总没理由后退了吧

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】

: If not retrogress in October, aug/sep VB will be small movement.

Q*******e
发帖数: 939

ding!

all.
EB2
cases

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

r********n
发帖数: 1162

No, EB2 PD will move forward for sure!
But my attorney thinks that China EB2 PD may stay to the date after jump,
not retrogress.
If they retrogress PD to May 2007, China EB2 approvable cases will be much
less than 800, which is the quarter limit.
Out of the 1000 PWMB, maximum 200 of them can be ready for approval in
October. There is no way to consume of own quota if they retrogress.
But Mr.O is a crazy man. We can not predict him at all.

【在 a****l 的大作中提到】

: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases

y***n
发帖数: 6764

这个说法的问题我不在乎，底线是只要中国EB2能自给自足，我们还有什么可以担心的
呢？

【在 J********t 的大作中提到】

: 我个人认为不是松绑，而是中国EB2大致可以自给自足，如果有大量的so，我们才分一
: 些，如果so数量不够巨大的话，我们用自己名额也在老印前面。

c**s
发帖数: 3796

If PD jump to Q1/Q2 2008, I don't think OCT VB will stay there.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: No, EB2 PD will move forward for sure!
: But my attorney thinks that China EB2 PD may stay to the date after jump,
: not retrogress.
: If they retrogress PD to May 2007, China EB2 approvable cases will be much
: less than 800, which is the quarter limit.
: Out of the 1000 PWMB, maximum 200 of them can be ready for approval in
: October. There is no way to consume of own quota if they retrogress.
: But Mr.O is a crazy man. We can not predict him at all.

c*****o
发帖数: 139

I have a strong feeling that rocketfan is 'my attorney' he mentioned. He
might be a real attorney.

y***n
发帖数: 6764

你说的没错，但火箭的原意是说PD不会退到 may 07

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】

: If PD jump to Q1/Q2 2008, I don't think OCT VB will stay there.

b******k
发帖数: 244

In this case, does that mean if PD moves to 08, Q1, whoever submitted at
Sept could expect to be approved soon after 485 submission instead of
waiting for a long time?

相关主题
● 关于移民批准数据的问题，请帮助分析。	● 中国EB2的形势
● 广州CP，排期未到，大使馆就备案了。(老猪说的)	● 剩余名额
● FY2010 perm data	● some useful EB2, EB3, perm data collected from web.
进入EB23版参与讨论

J********t
发帖数: 240

我们的观点是一致的
本来递485到绿卡批就有半年的延迟，只要0707大潮过去了，进到08年是很reasonable
的，往回退个半年，还有什么demand，哪里有绿卡可批？

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 这个说法的问题我不在乎，底线是只要中国EB2能自给自足，我们还有什么可以担心的
: 呢？

r********n
发帖数: 1162

My personal prediction is:
VB in September: April 2008
VB in October: sometime between Dec.2007 to April 2008
VB in December: move forward maybe 3 months or even more!
The reason for big jump in September is that India needs to build an
inventory.
Our China EB2 demand:
Before July 2007 is around 1000 maximum, out of these 1000, 20% maximum can
be ready for approval in October.
Between July 2007 and April 2008 is around 3000 maximum, out of these 3000,
20% maximum can be ready for approval in the next Spring (Feburary or sth).
In a word, I think Chinese EB2 demand will be low, the approvalbe cases will
be very small!

【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】

: 假设9月放水到2008年初（算大的前进了吧）
: 然后事实情形是2007-2008EB2C没多少人交485（3000人左右）
: 这样的话10月VB总没理由后退了吧

c**s
发帖数: 3796

sorry. I haven't read it carefully.
if sep VB is Q1/Q2 2008, the OCT VB must retrogress.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 你说的没错，但火箭的原意是说PD不会退到 may 07

J********t
发帖数: 240

我觉得老印会，老中不会

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】

: sorry. I haven't read it carefully.
: if sep VB is Q1/Q2 2008, the OCT VB must retrogress.

r********n
发帖数: 1162

But the thing is that there will not be enough number of cases to consume
the monthly quota.
Given how busy they are, they have no time to go through the newly submitted
cases. No way to get ready in October.

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】

: sorry. I haven't read it carefully.
: if sep VB is Q1/Q2 2008, the OCT VB must retrogress.

y***n
发帖数: 6764

嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
情况随时会变...
说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。

reasonable

【在 J********t 的大作中提到】

: 我们的观点是一致的
: 本来递485到绿卡批就有半年的延迟，只要0707大潮过去了，进到08年是很reasonable
: 的，往回退个半年，还有什么demand，哪里有绿卡可批？

c**s
发帖数: 3796

For the first half year of 2012, O only needs 1400 demand. He could open the
gate again in April 2012(one more month earlier than this year).

submitted

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: But the thing is that there will not be enough number of cases to consume
: the monthly quota.
: Given how busy they are, they have no time to go through the newly submitted
: cases. No way to get ready in October.

c**s
发帖数: 3796

I agree.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable

r********n
发帖数: 1162

When he opens gate in April 2012, it might be too late.
It's very difficult to get all the cases ready for approval in 4-5 months.
Nobody wants to waste visa.

the

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】

: For the first half year of 2012, O only needs 1400 demand. He could open the
: gate again in April 2012(one more month earlier than this year).
:
: submitted

z****l
发帖数: 69

潜深水的说一句，这几天也老琢磨来着，10月份如果做决定的人明智的话应该保持PD不
动，让新递交的申请被受理，被分配VISA。
多谢楼主的信息!

相关主题
● NIU只要做一件事	● 17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 are waiting
● EB２剩余名额分法的阴办法	● EB2-India & China Movement Analysis
● 2012年配额1月用完，为什么？	● EB2 Demand for Oct'2007 to Sept'2010
进入EB23版参与讨论

S*******r
发帖数: 11017

哈哈如果看PD密集度的话应该是09PD最幸运吧

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

J********t
发帖数: 240

每个阶段的pd都有自己的幸于不幸吧
无论如何只要0707 大潮过去了，形式确实明朗多了，

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

L***a
发帖数: 3674

heihei
bbs上面不都是这样子么
我同事
我同学
我邻居
其实呢
就是
我____
：D

【在 c*****o 的大作中提到】

: I have a strong feeling that rocketfan is 'my attorney' he mentioned. He
: might be a real attorney.

i******t
发帖数: 11048

其实只要07年的大潮过了，就每年交上来的那么点申请USCIS还是能够搞定的

【在 z****l 的大作中提到】

: 潜深水的说一句，这几天也老琢磨来着，10月份如果做决定的人明智的话应该保持PD不
: 动，让新递交的申请被受理，被分配VISA。
: 多谢楼主的信息!

a****l
发帖数: 8211

你的想法是不符合o的做法的.比如说(完全是假设),10月初一个待批的案子都没有了,然
后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.

reasonable

【在 J********t 的大作中提到】

l**********8
发帖数: 314

请问8 月份的EB2 预测会前进到多少啊? 能到July, 2007 吗? 谢谢你

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: When he opens gate in April 2012, it might be too late.
: It's very difficult to get all the cases ready for approval in 4-5 months.
: Nobody wants to waste visa.
:
: the

r********n
发帖数: 1162

Mr.O is hard to predict.
He does everything based on his personal understanding. He never digged deep
into the data and facts.
We are suffering here because of his mistakes.
In the next fiscal year, it will be critical for us to monitor the visa
consumption on a monthly basis.
Mr.O may put our PD into a date that we don't have too many approvable cases
, then all our quota will be wasted, just like what happened to China EB3
several years ago. We have to monitor and push!

1000

【在 a****l 的大作中提到】

: 你的想法是不符合o的做法的.比如说(完全是假设),10月初一个待批的案子都没有了,然
: 后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
: 如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
: 国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
: 的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
: 个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
: 确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
: 要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
: 希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.
:

r********n
发帖数: 1162

I think it's very likely the PD will move to July 2007.

【在 l**********8 的大作中提到】

: 请问8 月份的EB2 预测会前进到多少啊? 能到July, 2007 吗? 谢谢你

s******n
发帖数: 340

what yr lawyer said is kind of self-contradictary.

c**s
发帖数: 3796

If you look at the trackitt sample data(ROW EB2) like JEW point it out, the
normal process time for a new 485 are 4 months. April 2012 is good enough to
deal with any unexpected large amount SO.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: When he opens gate in April 2012, it might be too late.
: It's very difficult to get all the cases ready for approval in 4-5 months.
: Nobody wants to waste visa.
:
: the

相关主题
● EB2 Demand for Oct'2007 to Sept'2010	● July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis ZT
● 只有一种可能：就是目前2012已经批了大量名额，老中2800也悬了	● 律师关于最近EB2的批准情况
● CO 对VB的预测	● where to get h-1b approval notice for 485
进入EB23版参与讨论

l**********8
发帖数: 314

你的贴很好,

deep
cases
EB3

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: Mr.O is hard to predict.
: He does everything based on his personal understanding. He never digged deep
: into the data and facts.
: We are suffering here because of his mistakes.
: In the next fiscal year, it will be critical for us to monitor the visa
: consumption on a monthly basis.
: Mr.O may put our PD into a date that we don't have too many approvable cases
: , then all our quota will be wasted, just like what happened to China EB3
: several years ago. We have to monitor and push!
:

l**********8
发帖数: 314

谢谢你啊!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: I think it's very likely the PD will move to July 2007.

r********n
发帖数: 1162

hehe, thanks!
just some info for your reference.

【在 l**********8 的大作中提到】

: 你的贴很好,
:
: deep
: cases
: EB3

b*********n
发帖数: 2975

sounds reasonable, however, it really depends on if Mr.O is also reasonable

Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
around 1000 maximum.
2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB
cases
can get through all the paperwork ready in October. DOS determines the PD
based on how many cases are ready for approval, not how many cases are in
their database. It is a huge difference between "approvable cases" and "
pending cases".
3. China EB3-EB2 upgrade is negligible. The poring will not increase China
EB2 demand at all. Totally China has around 5000 EB3 and very few of them
are porting.
4. His thinks that China EB2 will not retrogess at all. He believes
China EB2 will move forward steadily from now.
I think what he said makes sense. There is no reason to retrogress for China
EB2. But it's hard to predict Mr.O's next move. He never followed the law
and he made wrong decisions based on his personal understanding and
interpolation. Let's see what will happen in October.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

i******t
发帖数: 11048

if he is, china and india should not be binded together

reasonable
all.
EB2

【在 b*********n 的大作中提到】

: sounds reasonable, however, it really depends on if Mr.O is also reasonable
:
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through

r********n
发帖数: 1162

From the previous patterns, I believe they prefer to move PD in the last
quarter.
last year they did the same thing to family based GC.
Again, Mr.O does things based on his personal understanding, there is no way
to predict him 100% accurately.

the
to

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】

: If you look at the trackitt sample data(ROW EB2) like JEW point it out, the
: normal process time for a new 485 are 4 months. April 2012 is good enough to
: deal with any unexpected large amount SO.

P****S
发帖数: 2286

分析的没错。有大前进必然有大后退，除非O今年变风格了。
律师确实不一定比申请人更明白。

1000

【在 a****l 的大作中提到】

b*********n
发帖数: 2975

//nod, hehe

if he is, china and india should not be binded together
reasonable
all.
EB2

【在 i******t 的大作中提到】

: if he is, china and india should not be binded together
:
: reasonable
: all.
: EB2

c**s
发帖数: 3796

Yes. Could anyone/org talk with O to see what is his plan for AUG/SEP/NEXT
YEAR?

way

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: From the previous patterns, I believe they prefer to move PD in the last
: quarter.
: last year they did the same thing to family based GC.
: Again, Mr.O does things based on his personal understanding, there is no way
: to predict him 100% accurately.
:
: the
: to

r********n
发帖数: 1162

My personal opinion is that China EB2 should never have had retrogression in the
first place! Mr.O never understood the law until the 2007 event. If the
horizontal spillover were in place before 2007, we should have never waited
for so long!
The reason why we are seeing the huge number of China EB2 demand is that Mr.
O assigned the visa numbers in a random sequence before 2007. They assigned
17k visas to India EB3 in 2007 and 12k in 2005.
Why assigned so many to EB3 Indians in 2007? Because Mr.O himself didn't
know the law clearly before 2007. Everything was a mess before 2007.
Mr.O himself is self contradictory. He does things based on his personal
understanding. In one hand, he asked our Chinese EB2 to wait and retrogess, on the other hand, he assigned all the visas to India EB3. After 2007, he stopped doing that after he figured out the law. But is that over? Isn't this mess caused by him? Shouldn't he take the responsbility of his mis-judgement before 2007? Is it a joke to change regulations before 2007 and after 2007?
We are waiting for so many years just because they made so many mistakes in
the past. We are paying a heavy price for these stupid people's mistakes.

【在 i******t 的大作中提到】

: if he is, china and india should not be binded together
:
: reasonable
: all.
: EB2

相关主题
● 行动起来！if you are current in June.	● 广州CP，排期未到，大使馆就备案了。(老猪说的)
● EB3 PD Quarterly Progress Prediction based on new data	● FY2010 perm data
● 关于移民批准数据的问题，请帮助分析。	● 中国EB2的形势
进入EB23版参与讨论

P****S
发帖数: 2286

USCIS肯定会把O给骂死的。就象当年07大潮，虽然前面有PD03和04的，但PD06年也有批
的。
假设9月放水到2008年初，十月还停着不动的话。类似事情又可能重演。因为上万人分
不到三千名额，PD倒退是不可避免的。赶在PD倒退之前，PD靠后的人为了一线早批的希
望，肯定会使出浑身解数，把USCIS给折腾死。

【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】

: 假设9月放水到2008年初（算大的前进了吧）
: 然后事实情形是2007-2008EB2C没多少人交485（3000人左右）
: 这样的话10月VB总没理由后退了吧

j*e
发帖数: 1987

标题有误导性。10月排期会不会倒退完全取决于9月排期前进多少。9月前进多，10月必
倒退，9月前进少，10月不倒退。在前提都不明确的情况下，谈10月倒不倒退没有意义
。

g**o
发帖数: 15

acectl, there is a 27% per quarter limit for first three quarters, they can'
t use more than 81% of 2800 before July 2012.

1000

【在 a****l 的大作中提到】

r********n
发帖数: 1162

In October, there will not be enough approvable cases for EB2 China to
consume the monthly quota.
It't totally different from 07 event. PD06 got approved before PD03 because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.

【在 P****S 的大作中提到】

: USCIS肯定会把O给骂死的。就象当年07大潮，虽然前面有PD03和04的，但PD06年也有批
: 的。
: 假设9月放水到2008年初，十月还停着不动的话。类似事情又可能重演。因为上万人分
: 不到三千名额，PD倒退是不可避免的。赶在PD倒退之前，PD靠后的人为了一线早批的希
: 望，肯定会使出浑身解数，把USCIS给折腾死。

z******y
发帖数: 192

re, Aug, Sep VB will set the tone.

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】

: 标题有误导性。10月排期会不会倒退完全取决于9月排期前进多少。9月前进多，10月必
: 倒退，9月前进少，10月不倒退。在前提都不明确的情况下，谈10月倒不倒退没有意义
: 。

l********7
发帖数: 1089

基本同意，除了０８　ＰＤ的ＰＥＲＭ申请相对难了点，被ＡＵＤＩＴ的多，拖得时间
长。当相对等的时间还算少了，马上就能得解放了。

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

d****n
发帖数: 301

your attorney is awesome! I think this is good news for all future EB2C.

c**s
发帖数: 3796

PD大潮后到２００８年前的，一个月平均中印需求有２２００到２５００人，中国EB２
每个月只有２５０可用。我对２０１２年前半年的排期非常不乐观。
YOU ARE A NICE GUY。只是讨论

because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: In October, there will not be enough approvable cases for EB2 China to
: consume the monthly quota.
: It't totally different from 07 event. PD06 got approved before PD03 because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.

y***n
发帖数: 6764

嗯，08PD的perm很折腾，后来09的一下子就都放水了。但08的被audit也不耽误时间，
所以从时间上来讲丝毫没损失。他们，尤其是08Q1Q2的，3年半拿到绿卡，not bad at
all! 但当然，这是可遇不可求的。

【在 l********7 的大作中提到】

: 基本同意，除了０８　ＰＤ的ＰＥＲＭ申请相对难了点，被ＡＵＤＩＴ的多，拖得时间
: 长。当相对等的时间还算少了，马上就能得解放了。

P****S
发帖数: 2286

07年的时候，待批的I-485从03到06都有是因为RIR变成PERM造成的。但06年的I-485比
03年的先批是因为06年的先完成了NC。当时NC拖个两年很平常。很多人靠打官司通过NC。
如果九月PD进到08年Q1停着不动，08年Q1只要比07年Q3的先过NC，就能先被批。

because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

相关主题
● 剩余名额	● EB２剩余名额分法的阴办法
● some useful EB2, EB3, perm data collected from web.	● 2012年配额1月用完，为什么？
● NIU只要做一件事	● 17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 are waiting
进入EB23版参与讨论

r********n
发帖数: 1162

yes, India and China together have a huge demand, but Chinese demand is not
high!
Even for India, the approvable cases will be small. Although the true
monthly demand between july 2007 and 2008 is 1500-2000 for India and 300-400 for
China, the approvalble cases are much smaller than these two numbers.
For India, they will retrogress not because of the new cases, but because of
the porting from eb3-eb2. Their 485 have been reviewed and ready for
approval immediately. For the new cases, I don't think they can approve any
until the next year.

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】

: PD大潮后到２００８年前的，一个月平均中印需求有２２００到２５００人，中国EB２
: 每个月只有２５０可用。我对２０１２年前半年的排期非常不乐观。
: YOU ARE A NICE GUY。只是讨论
:
: because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.

r********n
发帖数: 1162

Yes, previously the name check was a long process. Now I think the name
check is much faster than before. Additionally, 06 PD passed name check
earlier because they submitted 485 earlier than 03-04 folks. 03-04 folks got
stuck in BEC for a long time and their labor took 3-4 years to get approval
and they submitted 485 later than 06 folks. But now it's a different story
because 07 Q3 folks will submit 485 earlier than 08 Q1 folks or around the
same time. Generally speaking, the 07 Q3 folks will pass the name check
earlier than 08 Q1 folks. Plus there are not many China EB2 people anyway!

NC。

【在 P****S 的大作中提到】

: 07年的时候，待批的I-485从03到06都有是因为RIR变成PERM造成的。但06年的I-485比
: 03年的先批是因为06年的先完成了NC。当时NC拖个两年很平常。很多人靠打官司通过NC。
: 如果九月PD进到08年Q1停着不动，08年Q1只要比07年Q3的先过NC，就能先被批。
:
: because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.

c**s
发帖数: 3796

It is so normal for 4 months to get a new case green. USCIS also set 6 months to get a case green no matter what is the situation of name check.
400 enough for 1.5 month VB movement.

not
400 for
of
any

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: yes, India and China together have a huge demand, but Chinese demand is not
: high!
: Even for India, the approvable cases will be small. Although the true
: monthly demand between july 2007 and 2008 is 1500-2000 for India and 300-400 for
: China, the approvalble cases are much smaller than these two numbers.
: For India, they will retrogress not because of the new cases, but because of
: the porting from eb3-eb2. Their 485 have been reviewed and ready for
: approval immediately. For the new cases, I don't think they can approve any
: until the next year.

y***n
发帖数: 6764

火箭，请普及一下：file 了485后，除了name check(FBI?),主要还要等什么？

got
approval
story

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: Yes, previously the name check was a long process. Now I think the name
: check is much faster than before. Additionally, 06 PD passed name check
: earlier because they submitted 485 earlier than 03-04 folks. 03-04 folks got
: stuck in BEC for a long time and their labor took 3-4 years to get approval
: and they submitted 485 later than 06 folks. But now it's a different story
: because 07 Q3 folks will submit 485 earlier than 08 Q1 folks or around the
: same time. Generally speaking, the 07 Q3 folks will pass the name check
: earlier than 08 Q1 folks. Plus there are not many China EB2 people anyway!
:
: NC。

c**s
发帖数: 3796

Name check usually takes only a couple of weeks after they updated the
system in 2009.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 火箭，请普及一下：file 了485后，除了name check(FBI?),主要还要等什么？
:
: got
: approval
: story

y***n
发帖数: 6764

谢谢，那么file了485后，直到被approve，还有什么hurdle? 为什么要take好几个月呢？
对不起，我现在在恶补知识。

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】

: Name check usually takes only a couple of weeks after they updated the
: system in 2009.

P****S
发帖数: 2286

因为政府工作都很lay back

呢？

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 谢谢，那么file了485后，直到被approve，还有什么hurdle? 为什么要take好几个月呢？
: 对不起，我现在在恶补知识。

J********t
发帖数: 240

08年的pd最多能在今年递485，今年批不太可能，进入2012年，不也是4年吗？

at

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 嗯，08PD的perm很折腾，后来09的一下子就都放水了。但08的被audit也不耽误时间，
: 所以从时间上来讲丝毫没损失。他们，尤其是08Q1Q2的，3年半拿到绿卡，not bad at
: all! 但当然，这是可遇不可求的。

c**s
发帖数: 3796

我建议你看PINGJIANG的微博，在文学城。过去看过些文章关于处理流程，有点忘了。
FBI是一个，还有一个什么CHECK忘了，总之这些CHECK正常情况１个月够了。主要处理
的时间是收材料，录入４８５申请的数据，内部之间文件传送等等。
所以四个月是很正常的处理时间，TRACKITT上面ROWEB２一直CURRENT，基本你看它提交时间到批准日的区间，４个月是大流。

呢？

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 谢谢，那么file了485后，直到被approve，还有什么hurdle? 为什么要take好几个月呢？
: 对不起，我现在在恶补知识。

r********n
发帖数: 1162

If we assume it takes 4 months to process everything for 485, a PWMB case
needs to rush into the pipeline before June 1st in order to get his green
card in Oct.1st.
In other words, a case has to be submitted before June 1st in order to use a
visa number in Oct.1st.
As we know, the PWMB demand are mainly in May-July range (90%). These folks
haven't submitted their cases yet because the July VB is still March 2007.
The earliest date for PWMB to submit 485 is in August 1st, there is no way
for the PWMB cases to be approved before December 1st.
Additionally, I really doubt the USCIS will touch any of these new cases in
this summer. They will focus all their resources on 06-07 cases.
In this October and November, the approvable cases are minimum. Even in this
December, the approvable cases are small numbers.
In my opinion, they will start approving the PWMB cases in the next Feburary
or so.

months to get a case green no matter what is the situation of name check.

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】

: It is so normal for 4 months to get a new case green. USCIS also set 6 months to get a case green no matter what is the situation of name check.
: 400 enough for 1.5 month VB movement.
:
: not
: 400 for
: of
: any

相关主题
● 17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 are waiting	● 只有一种可能：就是目前2012已经批了大量名额，老中2800也悬了
● EB2-India & China Movement Analysis	● CO 对VB的预测
● EB2 Demand for Oct'2007 to Sept'2010	● July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis ZT
进入EB23版参与讨论

S******y
发帖数: 1330

08最幸运？07/07 PD笑了

j*e
发帖数: 1987

That's true. 所以在8，9月排期不确定的情况下，讨论10月会不会倒退没有意义。
不如讨论如果奥本为了在下一财年第一季度不倒退排期，他应该在9月底前收多少新485
吧。
按照第一季度名额2800 X 27% = 756，如果9月底之前交上的新485有50%会在12月底前
批准，那么奥本会在9月底前收大概756X2大约1500份新485。如楼主所估计，PD为07年8
月前的PWMB就有大约1000，再收07年7月后大约500份485，那9月排期最多到07年9月。
（07年7月后每个月至少有700人等着交485。）

can'

【在 g**o 的大作中提到】

: acectl, there is a 27% per quarter limit for first three quarters, they can'
: t use more than 81% of 2800 before July 2012.
:
: 1000

a***n
发帖数: 665

Similar here: rocketsfan probably is working in a law firm, and
he is the attorney or assistant to the attorney.
Thanks, rocketsfan, for all the news/info here. That's both informative
and encouraging.

【在 c*****o 的大作中提到】

: I have a strong feeling that rocketfan is 'my attorney' he mentioned. He
: might be a real attorney.

s*****v
发帖数: 145

火箭大师，请问08年1月底的什么时候能拿到呢？明年4月有个会在加拿大，如果拿到了
就不用签证了。不然又是一番折腾谢谢！

a
folks
in

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: If we assume it takes 4 months to process everything for 485, a PWMB case
: needs to rush into the pipeline before June 1st in order to get his green
: card in Oct.1st.
: In other words, a case has to be submitted before June 1st in order to use a
: visa number in Oct.1st.
: As we know, the PWMB demand are mainly in May-July range (90%). These folks
: haven't submitted their cases yet because the July VB is still March 2007.
: The earliest date for PWMB to submit 485 is in August 1st, there is no way
: for the PWMB cases to be approved before December 1st.
: Additionally, I really doubt the USCIS will touch any of these new cases in

a***n
发帖数: 665

My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
years.

r********n
发帖数: 1162

Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
cases in this summer.
But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
spillover.
Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
have to admit more than 15k for sure!

485
年8

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】

: That's true. 所以在8，9月排期不确定的情况下，讨论10月会不会倒退没有意义。
: 不如讨论如果奥本为了在下一财年第一季度不倒退排期，他应该在9月底前收多少新485
: 吧。
: 按照第一季度名额2800 X 27% = 756，如果9月底之前交上的新485有50%会在12月底前
: 批准，那么奥本会在9月底前收大概756X2大约1500份新485。如楼主所估计，PD为07年8
: 月前的PWMB就有大约1000，再收07年7月后大约500份485，那9月排期最多到07年9月。
: （07年7月后每个月至少有700人等着交485。）
:
: can'

r********n
发帖数: 1162

hehe, no, I am a petroleum engineer.

【在 a***n 的大作中提到】

: Similar here: rocketsfan probably is working in a law firm, and
: he is the attorney or assistant to the attorney.
: Thanks, rocketsfan, for all the news/info here. That's both informative
: and encouraging.

y***n
发帖数: 6764

多谢耐心回答

提交时间到批准日的区间，４个月是大流。

【在 c**s 的大作中提到】

: 我建议你看PINGJIANG的微博，在文学城。过去看过些文章关于处理流程，有点忘了。
: FBI是一个，还有一个什么CHECK忘了，总之这些CHECK正常情况１个月够了。主要处理
: 的时间是收材料，录入４８５申请的数据，内部之间文件传送等等。
: 所以四个月是很正常的处理时间，TRACKITT上面ROWEB２一直CURRENT，基本你看它提交时间到批准日的区间，４个月是大流。
:
: 呢？

r********n
发帖数: 1162

Yes, if Mr.O is crazy and move our PD back too much, the only consequence is
that our quota will be wasted big time because there won't be any
approvable cases before December.

of

【在 a***n 的大作中提到】

: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.

r********n
发帖数: 1162

相关主题
● 律师关于最近EB2的批准情况	● EB3 PD Quarterly Progress Prediction based on new data
● where to get h-1b approval notice for 485	● 关于移民批准数据的问题，请帮助分析。
● 行动起来！if you are current in June.	● 广州CP，排期未到，大使馆就备案了。(老猪说的)
进入EB23版参与讨论

r********n
发帖数: 1162

s*****v
发帖数: 145

如果这的是这样，你应该推荐推荐你的律师。大部分都是混吃等死型，不出错就烧高香了

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: hehe, no, I am a petroleum engineer.

r********n
发帖数: 1162

I think you will get EAP/AP this summer.

【在 s*****v 的大作中提到】

: 火箭大师，请问08年1月底的什么时候能拿到呢？明年4月有个会在加拿大，如果拿到了
: 就不用签证了。不然又是一番折腾谢谢！
:
: a
: folks
: in

y***n
发帖数: 6764

说的是走PERM的
07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。

【在 S******y 的大作中提到】

: 08最幸运？07/07 PD笑了

b********7
发帖数: 12906

说实话. 这个预测是基于O有理智的前期下的. 实际情况是, O的大部分决定显示他没有
这种理智的分析能力. 所以具体10月EB2C会不会倒退, 只有他自己知道(或者说只有到
时候他自己才知道).

r********n
发帖数: 1162

Thanks for your kind words!
I am not very sucessful!
I am a small engineer working for boss.
I like punching numbers.

【在 a***n 的大作中提到】

J********t
发帖数: 240

08，09，10 这3年eb2c最多也就2万人吧。

to
least
They

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
: cases in this summer.
: But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
: admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
: Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
: 15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
: spillover.
: Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
: have to admit more than 15k for sure!
:

j*e
发帖数: 1987

移民法规定年度配额的同时，规定每个季度不得超过年度配额的27%.所以奥本也是按季
度分名额。见http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dosebn.html
“DOS Answers Questions on Employment-Based Visa Numbers ”
Quarterly Percentages
Rather than making all visa numbers available at the beginning of each
fiscal year and then having a period of unavailability, visa number
allotments must be spread throughout the year. Therefore, in each of the
first three quarters of every fiscal year, the DOS can only release up to 27
% of the available visa numbers per category, per quarter. By contrast, the
DOS confirmed that there is no percentage limit on visa numbers in the
fourth quarter of every year.

to
least
They

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

r********n
发帖数: 1162

yes, agree.
Mr.O is crazy and unpredictable.
Let's see what will happen.

【在 b********7 的大作中提到】

: 说实话. 这个预测是基于O有理智的前期下的. 实际情况是, O的大部分决定显示他没有
: 这种理智的分析能力. 所以具体10月EB2C会不会倒退, 只有他自己知道(或者说只有到
: 时候他自己才知道).

s*****v
发帖数: 145

也都有风险的，尤其是拿F visa，没有金刚钻一般不敢乱揽活

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 说的是走PERM的
: 07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。

相关主题
● FY2010 perm data	● some useful EB2, EB3, perm data collected from web.
● 中国EB2的形势	● NIU只要做一件事
● 剩余名额	● EB２剩余名额分法的阴办法
进入EB23版参与讨论

J********t
发帖数: 240

我就是太不人精了，当年听说这事，但是一点都没想起来递一个niw

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 说的是走PERM的
: 07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。

r********n
发帖数: 1162

yes, just because of these regulations, his only option is to admit more
cases in the summer, not in the next April.
In the summer, he can use the excuse that demand is not enough, but he can't
use this excuse in the next april.

27
the

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】

: 移民法规定年度配额的同时，规定每个季度不得超过年度配额的27%.所以奥本也是按季
: 度分名额。见http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dosebn.html
: “DOS Answers Questions on Employment-Based Visa Numbers ”
: Quarterly Percentages
: Rather than making all visa numbers available at the beginning of each
: fiscal year and then having a period of unavailability, visa number
: allotments must be spread throughout the year. Therefore, in each of the
: first three quarters of every fiscal year, the DOS can only release up to 27
: % of the available visa numbers per category, per quarter. By contrast, the
: DOS confirmed that there is no percentage limit on visa numbers in the

a****l
发帖数: 8211

exactly.

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】

r********n
发帖数: 1162

no, much less than that!
totally only 11k China PERM from 2007 to 2010.
The chinese demand is very low.

【在 J********t 的大作中提到】

: 08，09，10 这3年eb2c最多也就2万人吧。
:
: to
: least
: They

r********n
发帖数: 1162

really? you are so sweet!
thanks again!
Best luck to all of us!

【在 a***n 的大作中提到】

i******t
发帖数: 11048

当年我律师的建议
硕士也可以交上niw
拿着EAD找到工作了
再让雇主给你弄h1-b

【在 J********t 的大作中提到】

: 我就是太不人精了，当年听说这事，但是一点都没想起来递一个niw

j*e
发帖数: 1987

To be honest,我看不出9月排期跟明年是否会浪费SO之间有任何联系。奥本只要保证在
明年最后一个季度有足够的485被批，就能不浪费名额，他不需要什么excuse就能做到
这一点。

't

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: yes, just because of these regulations, his only option is to admit more
: cases in the summer, not in the next April.
: In the summer, he can use the excuse that demand is not enough, but he can't
: use this excuse in the next april.
:
: 27
: the

J********t
发帖数: 240

我都没想起来去咨询律师，刚毕业总觉得申请绿卡是很遥远的事情，其实当时h1b已经
递上去了
anyway，没有后悔药吃了

【在 i******t 的大作中提到】

: 当年我律师的建议
: 硕士也可以交上niw
: 拿着EAD找到工作了
: 再让雇主给你弄h1-b

e******e
发帖数: 10121

good!
only October, how about November, December, 01/2012,02/2012.... until my PD:)
Hope never retrogress, bless!

y***n
发帖数: 6764

100

如果不回国的话，有什么风险？F1毕业后找工作走H1，然后老婆用EAD找工作所向披靡.
..

【在 s*****v 的大作中提到】

: 也都有风险的，尤其是拿F visa，没有金刚钻一般不敢乱揽活

相关主题
● 2012年配额1月用完，为什么？	● EB2 Demand for Oct'2007 to Sept'2010
● 17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 are waiting	● 只有一种可能：就是目前2012已经批了大量名额，老中2800也悬了
● EB2-India & China Movement Analysis	● CO 对VB的预测
进入EB23版参与讨论

y***n
发帖数: 6764

101

exactly, 从“听说”，到上心，到着手联系律师，准备材料，time window也就几个礼
拜。
不是一般人如你我之辈能做得到的。

【在 J********t 的大作中提到】

: 我就是太不人精了，当年听说这事，但是一点都没想起来递一个niw

D**M
发帖数: 168

102

走PERM的
06 和 07PD的拿EAD/AP<=1年
08PD>=3年。

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 说的是走PERM的
: 07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。

y***n
发帖数: 6764

103

其实pain不在我们自己，往往是老婆，我同事里好几个老婆在家里，就巴巴得在等EAD
，说实话，不人道

【在 i******t 的大作中提到】

: 当年我律师的建议
: 硕士也可以交上niw
: 拿着EAD找到工作了
: 再让雇主给你弄h1-b

y***n
发帖数: 6764

104

11k和我看到的差不多
其中10年的最多，08年的其次，09年的最少。

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: no, much less than that!
: totally only 11k China PERM from 2007 to 2010.
: The chinese demand is very low.

s******n
发帖数: 340

105

Nobody knows whether there will be Spillover for the next year, let alone
the specific number. Those information will not be clear until 3q OF 2012!

to
least
They

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

D**M
发帖数: 168

106

没错。
自己也pain。

EAD

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 其实pain不在我们自己，往往是老婆，我同事里好几个老婆在家里，就巴巴得在等EAD
: ，说实话，不人道

s******n
发帖数: 340

107

This is not true. New cases that are submitted in July will be qualified for
visa numbers in OCt, 2011, given the avg 485 processing time=4 month.
There are a lot of people who missed the July 07 boat, such as me.
After a few years, you will know that the GC game is a balance of conflict
interest. The so-called rules are execuces.

is

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: Yes, if Mr.O is crazy and move our PD back too much, the only consequence is
: that our quota will be wasted big time because there won't be any
: approvable cases before December.
:
: of

s******n
发帖数: 340

108

U should count depends as well!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: no, much less than that!
: totally only 11k China PERM from 2007 to 2010.
: The chinese demand is very low.

y***n
发帖数: 6764

109

算了，前几天有ID给出了08,09,10年的perm数据：
2010： 1603
2009： 852
2008： 1491
x3也就12K不到

【在 s******n 的大作中提到】

: U should count depends as well!

J********t
发帖数: 240

110

过一年这个版上还有人气吗？
assume 10%的人上这个版，09年才200人，一个月才20个人
话说回来，如果政策透明，数据清晰，这个版就不会存在了，

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 11k和我看到的差不多
: 其中10年的最多，08年的其次，09年的最少。

相关主题
● CO 对VB的预测	● where to get h-1b approval notice for 485
● July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis ZT	● 行动起来！if you are current in June.
● 律师关于最近EB2的批准情况	● EB3 PD Quarterly Progress Prediction based on new data
进入EB23版参与讨论

d**u
发帖数: 537

111

那就是说要浪费很多名额了?

all.
EB2
cases

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

J********t
发帖数: 240

112

怎么这么少啊，之前看的远远不止这么多啊，
是这个
perm: china, india
2007: 6846, 24573
2008: 3328, 16569
2009: 2094, 11387
2010: 4000, 29000【在 yqwen (小少爷) 的大作中提到: 】

D**M
发帖数: 168

113

x3太多了。小孩不是公民的应该是少数。

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 算了，前几天有ID给出了08,09,10年的perm数据：
: 2010： 1603
: 2009： 852
: 2008： 1491
: x3也就12K不到

L***a
发帖数: 3674

114

其实
那三个礼拜真的不堪回首
不知道浪费了多少的脑细胞
跟ld两个人伏案埋头码字
据说后面发文章的字数都没有那时候写的多。。。

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: exactly, 从“听说”，到上心，到着手联系律师，准备材料，time window也就几个礼
: 拜。
: 不是一般人如你我之辈能做得到的。

L***a
发帖数: 3674

115

没错，人是会呆傻掉的

EAD

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 其实pain不在我们自己，往往是老婆，我同事里好几个老婆在家里，就巴巴得在等EAD
: ，说实话，不人道

D**M
发帖数: 168

116

赞“所向披靡”。

靡.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 如果不回国的话，有什么风险？F1毕业后找工作走H1，然后老婆用EAD找工作所向披靡.
: ..

y***n
发帖数: 6764

117

靠，血泪感受啊，我老婆是中学老师，要中学给办个H1B，可真是难啊，两年前被lay，
好不容易找到下家（同学们，09年找老师，找得到就不容易啊，所有的town都在cut
budget）
然后转H1，当时我自己的律师（公司钦定的）不肯走灵活路线（非要学校出那个$850-
学校是非赢利，那$1500不用出），结果找了个版上放照片做广告的无良律师，差点把
好好的offer给搅黄了。
当时那个无良货给我老婆打电话说，要做好准备，学校可能要rescind offer, 你们能
理解我们当时的悲催么？

【在 D**M 的大作中提到】

: 赞“所向披靡”。
:
: 靡.

J********t
发帖数: 240

118

你是男的啊，
看你头像以为你是女的

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 靠，血泪感受啊，我老婆是中学老师，要中学给办个H1B，可真是难啊，两年前被lay，
: 好不容易找到下家（同学们，09年找老师，找得到就不容易啊，所有的town都在cut
: budget）
: 然后转H1，当时我自己的律师（公司钦定的）不肯走灵活路线（非要学校出那个$850-
: 学校是非赢利，那$1500不用出），结果找了个版上放照片做广告的无良律师，差点把
: 好好的offer给搅黄了。
: 当时那个无良货给我老婆打电话说，要做好准备，学校可能要rescind offer, 你们能
: 理解我们当时的悲催么？

a****l
发帖数: 8211

119

今年和后面几年肯定是不可能浪费任何名额的.那么多的eb3在那里了,都已经是pre-
approved的了,有多少名额就能消耗掉多少,绝对浪费不了.

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】

: To be honest,我看不出9月排期跟明年是否会浪费SO之间有任何联系。奥本只要保证在
: 明年最后一个季度有足够的485被批，就能不浪费名额，他不需要什么excuse就能做到
: 这一点。
:
: 't

B*****g
发帖数: 34098

120

不给EB２C就是浪费，hoho。

【在 a****l 的大作中提到】

: 今年和后面几年肯定是不可能浪费任何名额的.那么多的eb3在那里了,都已经是pre-
: approved的了,有多少名额就能消耗掉多少,绝对浪费不了.

相关主题
● 关于移民批准数据的问题，请帮助分析。	● 中国EB2的形势
● 广州CP，排期未到，大使馆就备案了。(老猪说的)	● 剩余名额
● FY2010 perm data	● some useful EB2, EB3, perm data collected from web.
进入EB23版参与讨论

y***n
发帖数: 6764

121

男的，照片是老婆的

【在 J********t 的大作中提到】

: 你是男的啊，
: 看你头像以为你是女的

f***r
发帖数: 528

122

I grabbed number of certified perm cases from the txt files on flcdatacenter
.com
FY2010
767 2009
3307 2010
FY2009
254 2008
1876 2009
These numbers are for both EB2 and EB3 China.
I dont know how to filter EB2 only data. can someone give some pointers?
by job title and/or prevailing salary?

【在 J********t 的大作中提到】

: 怎么这么少啊，之前看的远远不止这么多啊，
: 是这个
: perm: china, india
: 2007: 6846, 24573
: 2008: 3328, 16569
: 2009: 2094, 11387
: 2010: 4000, 29000【在 yqwen (小少爷) 的大作中提到: 】

s******7
发帖数: 1091

123

哇，到现在才看到火箭盖了这么高一幢楼阿。。
那10月不倒退，会是好消息咯？

l********7
发帖数: 1089

124

啊？为毛要把好好的ＯＦＦＥＲ脚黄啊？？？

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

L***a
发帖数: 3674

125

pp
可惜手挡住了

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 男的，照片是老婆的

s******7
发帖数: 1091

126

re
hoho。。。娶到pp的老婆，发包子吧

【在 L***a 的大作中提到】

: pp
: 可惜手挡住了

L***a
发帖数: 3674

127

热

【在 s******7 的大作中提到】

: re
: hoho。。。娶到pp的老婆，发包子吧

b********9
发帖数: 1061

128

how about NIW?

flcdatacenter

【在 f***r 的大作中提到】

: I grabbed number of certified perm cases from the txt files on flcdatacenter
: .com
: FY2010
: 767 2009
: 3307 2010
: FY2009
: 254 2008
: 1876 2009
: These numbers are for both EB2 and EB3 China.
: I dont know how to filter EB2 only data. can someone give some pointers?

D**M
发帖数: 168

129

我见过更悲催的。07初的PD。无良律师填错支票金额导致退件错过大潮。

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

f***r
发帖数: 528

130

its certified perm only

【在 b********9 的大作中提到】

: how about NIW?
:
: flcdatacenter

相关主题
● NIU只要做一件事	● 17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 are waiting
● EB２剩余名额分法的阴办法	● EB2-India & China Movement Analysis
● 2012年配额1月用完，为什么？	● EB2 Demand for Oct'2007 to Sept'2010
进入EB23版参与讨论

w*l
发帖数: 2550

131

08Q1Q2 pd wont get their gcs until next summer.
Demand in Aug-Dec 2007 would certainly use up yearly quota, if those 08Q1Q2
can be approved, they should be covered with next year's SO.

at

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

y***n
发帖数: 6764

132

无良律师么，只知道让paralegal做paperwork, 自己签字，连给学校律师打个电话都不
敢，后来我自己律师要出手援救也太迟了（关于钱的事，他想了个很creative的办法）
，故事说过去，让我律师+他的paralegal笑翻！

【在 l********7 的大作中提到】

: 啊？为毛要把好好的ＯＦＦＥＲ脚黄啊？？？

B*****g
发帖数: 34098

133

啥reative的办法？我猜就是律师给支票，然后再当服务费charge回来。

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 无良律师么，只知道让paralegal做paperwork, 自己签字，连给学校律师打个电话都不
: 敢，后来我自己律师要出手援救也太迟了（关于钱的事，他想了个很creative的办法）
: ，故事说过去，让我律师+他的paralegal笑翻！

w*l
发帖数: 2550

134

Then the pd can surely move to 08Q3Q4 or even 09Q1 for EB2CI if there are 30
% more SO, which about 50K!

to
least
They

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

y***n
发帖数: 6764

135

我律师说他先全埋单，然后等我自己file 140的时候，再假装给我寄个bill过来cover
我老婆的$850。正经美国律师啊，我不把他逼到那个份上，是出不来这个歪点子的。

【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】

: 啥reative的办法？我猜就是律师给支票，然后再当服务费charge回来。

s******7
发帖数: 1091

136

神马时候？
next　summer？

30

【在 w*l 的大作中提到】

: Then the pd can surely move to 08Q3Q4 or even 09Q1 for EB2CI if there are 30
: % more SO, which about 50K!
:
: to
: least
: They

f***r
发帖数: 528

137

by filtering out all the "level 1" jobs I got refined data
FY2009
190 2008
1198 2009
FY2010
524 2009
2102 2010
Those should be closer to EB2 China certified perms in those 2 years. again,
NIW not included.

flcdatacenter

【在 f***r 的大作中提到】

w*l
发帖数: 2550

138

By the end of next fiscal year.
This year has 35k-37k SO, 30% for next year would be around 50k. That really
can push EB2CI to almost the June/July of 2008.

【在 s******7 的大作中提到】

: 神马时候？
: next　summer？
:
: 30

S***k
发帖数: 370

139

有人在iv上说:
Some one on Chinese site posted that person with PD of 4/21/2008 got email
for fees from NVC. If that is true then date will rest at least 4/15/2008
for EB2 I C in Sep 2011 bulletin.
"Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled
to allotment of a visa
number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since
VO groups demand
for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh
of a month are grouped
under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under the 8th, etc.) "
然后那个admin 回:
It is incorrect from what we heard recently. This is all I can say on the
public forum.
比较有趣.

a***n
发帖数: 665

140

wql, what they said was "30%", not "30% more".

really

【在 w*l 的大作中提到】

: By the end of next fiscal year.
: This year has 35k-37k SO, 30% for next year would be around 50k. That really
: can push EB2CI to almost the June/July of 2008.

相关主题
● EB2 Demand for Oct'2007 to Sept'2010	● July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis ZT
● 只有一种可能：就是目前2012已经批了大量名额，老中2800也悬了	● 律师关于最近EB2的批准情况
● CO 对VB的预测	● where to get h-1b approval notice for 485
进入EB23版参与讨论

c**s
发帖数: 3796

141

lol

entitled
since
seventh

【在 S***k 的大作中提到】

: 有人在iv上说:
: Some one on Chinese site posted that person with PD of 4/21/2008 got email
: for fees from NVC. If that is true then date will rest at least 4/15/2008
: for EB2 I C in Sep 2011 bulletin.
: "Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled
: to allotment of a visa
: number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since
: VO groups demand
: for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh
: of a month are grouped

g*******a
发帖数: 149

142

pd 08年6月初的今年是不是不太可能递485了？
诶，急啊，等着绿卡换工作呢

s*****m
发帖数: 2024

143

我觉得没问题

【在 g*******a 的大作中提到】

: pd 08年6月初的今年是不是不太可能递485了？
: 诶，急啊，等着绿卡换工作呢

l********7
发帖数: 1089

144

哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？

entitled
since
seventh

【在 S***k 的大作中提到】

b*********n
发帖数: 2975

145

no somebody here also watering on iv, hehe

哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？
entitled
since
seventh

【在 l********7 的大作中提到】

: 哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？
:
: entitled
: since
: seventh

c**s
发帖数: 3796

146

lol

【在 b*********n 的大作中提到】

: no somebody here also watering on iv, hehe
:
: 哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？
: entitled
: since
: seventh

S*******r
发帖数: 11017

147

我觉得以后大家还是尽量用中文比较好
有些东西还是不要让A3知道为妙

g*******a
发帖数: 149

148

谢谢，真的很希望如此啊，现在的工作做的难受死了

【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】

: 我觉得没问题

H*V
发帖数: 2770

149

all people who could submit their 485 in Aug can not get them approved in 2
or 3 months, the 485 processing needs couple of months, so in Oct, Nov, Dec
we (china) will not have more cases for GC.probably still those previous (<
Sept, 2007) cases

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

: 你说的没错，但火箭的原意是说PD不会退到 may 07

r********n
发帖数: 1162

150

The whole purpose of this topic was to prove that the demand in this winter
is lower than my original estimation.
There won't be too many approvable cases in Q1 of FY 2012. It does not make
any difference if they retrogress the PD or not.
Very few people can be processed in Q1 of FY 2012. Most of the PWMB cases
will be approved in this December of next spring.

2
Dec

【在 H*V 的大作中提到】

: all people who could submit their 485 in Aug can not get them approved in 2
: or 3 months, the 485 processing needs couple of months, so in Oct, Nov, Dec
: we (china) will not have more cases for GC.probably still those previous (<
: Sept, 2007) cases

相关主题
● 行动起来！if you are current in June.	● 广州CP，排期未到，大使馆就备案了。(老猪说的)
● EB3 PD Quarterly Progress Prediction based on new data	● FY2010 perm data
● 关于移民批准数据的问题，请帮助分析。	● 中国EB2的形势
进入EB23版参与讨论

a******e
发帖数: 36306

151

谈不上理智不理智吧。。。大家思考角度不同而已。你们在这里老中烙印大比拼，在O
看来都是移民，没啥区别，他要做的无非就是让整个堆栈move的快点。

【在 b********7 的大作中提到】

A*r
发帖数: 2253

152

re

in the
waited
Mr.
assigned

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】

: My personal opinion is that China EB2 should never have had retrogression in the
: first place! Mr.O never understood the law until the 2007 event. If the
: horizontal spillover were in place before 2007, we should have never waited
: for so long!
: The reason why we are seeing the huge number of China EB2 demand is that Mr.
: O assigned the visa numbers in a random sequence before 2007. They assigned
: 17k visas to India EB3 in 2007 and 12k in 2005.
: Why assigned so many to EB3 Indians in 2007? Because Mr.O himself didn't
: know the law clearly before 2007. Everything was a mess before 2007.
: Mr.O himself is self contradictory. He does things based on his personal

r******e
发帖数: 396

153

不管怎样，顶一个先！

A**********g
发帖数: 987

154

hehe, 懂中文的阿三

entitled
since
seventh

【在 S***k 的大作中提到】

a****l
发帖数: 8211

155

不要这么凶吧?还是给eb3的同学们留点活路吧.

【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】

: 不给EB２C就是浪费，hoho。

m**a
发帖数: 1840

156

miss了2007/7大潮, 整天在门外风吹日晒,
我看不出来我幸运在哪里.
PD 2008.1月底.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】

s*******e
发帖数: 629

157

Feb. 2008. :(

f*****r
发帖数: 264

158

PD08 11月什么时候能递485？？

H******i
发帖数: 4704

159

August 2011

【在 f*****r 的大作中提到】

: PD08 11月什么时候能递485？？

s*******e
发帖数: 629

160

Are you serious?

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

: August 2011

相关主题
● 剩余名额	● EB２剩余名额分法的阴办法
● some useful EB2, EB3, perm data collected from web.	● 2012年配额1月用完，为什么？
● NIU只要做一件事	● 17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 are waiting
进入EB23版参与讨论

H******i
发帖数: 4704

161

my best wish

【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】

: Are you serious?

(共1页)

进入EB23版参与讨论

相关主题
● 剩余名额	● 只有一种可能：就是目前2012已经批了大量名额，老中2800也悬了
● some useful EB2, EB3, perm data collected from web.	● CO 对VB的预测
● NIU只要做一件事	● July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis ZT
● EB２剩余名额分法的阴办法	● 律师关于最近EB2的批准情况
● 2012年配额1月用完，为什么？	● where to get h-1b approval notice for 485
● 17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 are waiting	● 行动起来！if you are current in June.
● EB2-India & China Movement Analysis	● EB3 PD Quarterly Progress Prediction based on new data
● EB2 Demand for Oct'2007 to Sept'2010	● 关于移民批准数据的问题，请帮助分析。

相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: eb2话题: china话题: cases话题: pd话题: he

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未名新帖统计// 7月16日

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