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发帖数: 629 | 1 United States: Visa Office Predicts Significant Movement For EB-2 India &
China; But EB-3 India Stuck In Neutral
05 November 2011
Article by Valentine A. Brown
Last week, Charles Oppenheim, the man behind the mysterious Visa Bulletin
curtain, also known as Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division of
the Department of State, made some significant predictions regarding
priority date movement in the coming months.
The best news came for Indian and Chinese nationals in the EB-2 category.
For these individuals, Mr. Oppenheim predicted that priority dates would be
advanced "significantly" over the next few visa bulletins. He indicated that
"significantly" could mean a four month jump to March 1, 2008 for the
December bulletin, and that this trend could continue into the January and
February 2012 bulletins. He also predicted that EB-2 for the Rest of the
World (ROW) category will remain current throughout 2012.
The worst news came for Indian nationals in the EB-3 category. Mr. Oppenheim
predicted that the category will remain stagnant throughout the year. This
is due to the per country limitations placed on each visa category, which
for Indians in EB-3 amounts to only 3000 green cards per year. The queue in
this category is estimated at 210,000, thus making a 70 year wait, "
plausible" according to Oppenheim. There is some hope on the horizon for
persons in EB-3 due to pending legislation, which would eliminate the per
country limitation. See my previous blog on this topic for more information.
Although the news is not as bad for Chinese nationals in EB-3,- a steady
advancement of one to three weeks per month for the next several months - it
still means long waits for visa numbers for applicants in this category.
The wait may be shorter for those EB-3 applicants in the ROW category, as
Oppenheim predicts a 3-4 week movement per month for the next several months
. The chart below demonstrates what these advancements might look like over
the next seven months. Please note that this is only a prediction, but may
help applicants prepare their finances, travel plans and documentation for
possible filing of adjustment of status applications.
Dec '11
Jan '12
Feb '12
Mar '12
Apr '12
May '12
June '12
EB-2 India & China
03/01/2008
07/01/2008
11/01/2008
11/01/2008
11/01/2008
11/01/2008
Possible Retrogression
EB-3 China
09/12/2004
10/3/2004
10/24/2004
11/14/2004
12/5/2004
12/26/2004
01/15/2005
EB-3 India
07/22/2002
07/22/2002
08/01/2002
08/01/2002
08/15/2002
08/15/2002
08/22/2002
EB-3 ROW
01/22/2006
02/15/2006
03/15/2006
04/07/2006
04/21/2006
05/15/2006
06/04/2006
Number crunching by the Visa Office is a difficult business. As explained by
Oppenheim, it is a guessing game for several reasons; (1) it is impossible
to identify the exact number of people in the queue because the number of
spouses and minor children who will be counted against the visa numbers are
unknown until they actually apply for a visa number. This has been
especially the case in EB-3, as the long waits have increased, applicants'
families have grown. (2) Visa numbers are not actually requested until the
end of the green card application process, leaving a 6 month lag time
between priority date movement and actual visa allocation by the State
Department. This problem is what often leads to the retrogression in the
priority dates.
Oppenheim stated that retrogression of EB-2 for India and China is a good
possibility in the Summer of 2012, due to the inexact science of visa number
usage estimation. Oppenheim's theory is that he will advance the numbers
significantly in the early part of the Fiscal Year, develop a queue for visa
numbers, hold the dates steady from March 2012-June 2012, to allow USCIS to
catch up with visa allocation then retrogress in June 2012 or later if
necessary. Even though retrogression is unnerving to those affected by it,
it is a better result than having precious visa numbers unused and then lost
forever if they are not allocated before 9/30/2012. Based upon this
timeline, it is possible that there could be additional EB-2 movement in
September 2012 to ensure that all of the numbers are used before the fiscal
year ends on September 30, 2012.
With the possibility of retrogression, it is important to get I-485
applications filed in the first month of visa availability.
Just like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, we have been fooled before by the
Visa Office, so there is no use in getting too excited by the good news, as
it means that certain applicants will be able to file their green card
applications earlier than they might have previously thought. But for those
Indian nationals in EB-3 who have been debating whether to do the necessary
to refile in EB-2, this confirms their worst fears, and suggests that all
steps necessary to get in to EB-2 be initiated, the sooner the better.
We are prepared to handle the anticipated significant movement in the EB-2
China and India Categories. Please contact us if we can be of any assistance.
This article is for general information and does not include full legal
analysis of the matters presented. It should not be construed or relied upon
as legal advice or legal opinion on any specific facts or circumstances.
The description of the results of any specific case or transaction contained
herein does not mean or suggest that similar results can or could be
obtained in any other matter. Each legal matter should be considered to be
unique and subject to varying results. The invitation to contact the authors
or attorneys in our firm is not a solicitation to provide professional
services and should not be construed as a statement as to any availability
to perform legal services in any jurisdiction in which such attorney is not
permitted to practice.
Duane Morris LLP, a full-service law firm with more than 700 attorneys in 24
offices in the United States and internationally, offers innovative
solutions to the legal and business challenges presented by today's evolving
global markets. Duane Morris LLP, a full-service law firm with more than
700 attorneys in 24 offices in the United States and internationally, offers
innovative solutions to the legal and business challenges presented by
today's evolving global markets. The Duane Morris Institute provides
training workshops for HR professionals, in-house counsel, benefits
administrators and senior managers. | f*****r
发帖数: 264 | 2 要过08 12月！
be
【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: United States: Visa Office Predicts Significant Movement For EB-2 India &
: China; But EB-3 India Stuck In Neutral
: 05 November 2011
: Article by Valentine A. Brown
: Last week, Charles Oppenheim, the man behind the mysterious Visa Bulletin
: curtain, also known as Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division of
: the Department of State, made some significant predictions regarding
: priority date movement in the coming months.
: The best news came for Indian and Chinese nationals in the EB-2 category.
: For these individuals, Mr. Oppenheim predicted that priority dates would be
| s*******e
发帖数: 629 | | H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 4 越前进越好，总比浪费绿卡名额好。
EB-2 India & China
Dec '11---03/01/2008
Jan '12---07/01/2008
Feb '12---11/01/2008
Mar '12---11/01/2008
Apr '12---11/01/2008
May '12---11/01/2008
June '12---Possible Retrogression
【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: Hope so.
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