p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 1 The demand cannot be guessed from Perms and not even approved I-140s. Simply
because, there is no way to tell all those from Perms and I-140s will
eventually apply for I-485.
The only way to know the demand is to count the no of I-485 applications
filed so far. Period.
And from Feb bulletin all 2009 people will file start filing 485s and as
everybody know 2009 has very low turn out and moreover the data won't be
available until April.
I believe the demand data for March bulletin and April bulletin will still
be low. The actual demand will be seen from May bulletin.
So very good forward movement until May bulletin. June/July will be slow. |
m******g
发帖数: 3667 | 2 我昨天看了这个了。
首先他先说没人知道有多少人会申485，然后又说三月和四月还会前进。逻辑上不通啊。
Simply
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: The demand cannot be guessed from Perms and not even approved I-140s. Simply
: because, there is no way to tell all those from Perms and I-140s will
: eventually apply for I-485.
: The only way to know the demand is to count the no of I-485 applications
: filed so far. Period.
: And from Feb bulletin all 2009 people will file start filing 485s and as
: everybody know 2009 has very low turn out and moreover the data won't be
: available until April.
: I believe the demand data for March bulletin and April bulletin will still
: be low. The actual demand will be seen from May bulletin.
|
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 3 不算08年的了？
Simply
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: The demand cannot be guessed from Perms and not even approved I-140s. Simply
: because, there is no way to tell all those from Perms and I-140s will
: eventually apply for I-485.
: The only way to know the demand is to count the no of I-485 applications
: filed so far. Period.
: And from Feb bulletin all 2009 people will file start filing 485s and as
: everybody know 2009 has very low turn out and moreover the data won't be
: available until April.
: I believe the demand data for March bulletin and April bulletin will still
: be low. The actual demand will be seen from May bulletin.
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 4 我觉得原帖很中肯。
第一点也是我一直在强调的：大潮后到底有多少实际DEMAND,什么140什么PERM都是浮云
。唯有真正收到多少485才是王道。鳌拜就是因为过去几个月没收到多少485才放水，要
是他跟着老印论坛上的那些预测走，绝无可能放那么大水。
其次，如果鳌拜严格遵循有多少实际DEMAND放多少水的原则来制定VB（从过去两个月的
表现来看他确实如此），三月乃至四月VB继续前进。这个预测我同意。为啥？08-09年
两年的PD至少还要两三个月才能形成DEMAND。不要跟我说根据140或者PERM来看08-09年
应该有20K还是30K人，参看第一点，这TMD都是浮云。真正matter的是收上来多少新件。
第一点是第二点的原因，逻辑上很严密。
啊。
【在 m******g 的大作中提到】
: 我昨天看了这个了。
: 首先他先说没人知道有多少人会申485，然后又说三月和四月还会前进。逻辑上不通啊。
:
: Simply
|
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 5 how many inventory does O want to build? In other words, how many 485
applications O want to receive before closing the door?
How many 485 will you expect to receive after Feb VB? |
