p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 1 Assumption: 1 perm = 1 485
Reason: (EB2perm + NIW )X family people - (Demand destruction + EB3) = 0
So FY2008 to FY2010 total EB2 + EB3 IC 485 is 65K.
Assume 20K is EB3 PERM, then EB2IC is 45K.
Assume EB2IC 485 before FY2008 is 20K, then total EB2IC 485 inventory is 65K.
Assume EB2IC supply is 30K SO + 5.6K quote = 36K, then PD up to FY2010 can
get GC less than 2 years from the beginning of FY2012, and 1.5 year from now.
Conclusion: All of PD before FY2010 can get GC by the red-leaf season in
2013. |
f*c
发帖数: 2726 | 2 这些assumption准不准阿。我觉得你太乐观了
65K.
now.
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: Assumption: 1 perm = 1 485
: Reason: (EB2perm + NIW )X family people - (Demand destruction + EB3) = 0
: So FY2008 to FY2010 total EB2 + EB3 IC 485 is 65K.
: Assume 20K is EB3 PERM, then EB2IC is 45K.
: Assume EB2IC 485 before FY2008 is 20K, then total EB2IC 485 inventory is 65K.
: Assume EB2IC supply is 30K SO + 5.6K quote = 36K, then PD up to FY2010 can
: get GC less than 2 years from the beginning of FY2012, and 1.5 year from now.
: Conclusion: All of PD before FY2010 can get GC by the red-leaf season in
: 2013.
|
s******t
发帖数: 926 | 3 I think 1 perm will generate a little more than 1 485.
We have estimated 21k EB2CI demand from Nov.15, 2007 -- Dec.31, 2008, while
2008 PERM total is around 28k for EBCI (EB3 inclusive), assuming 10-12k are
EB3, we will have 16-18k PERM yielding about 20k 485 demand.
I-140 demand also confirms a close to 1-by-1 match between PERM and 485.
Perhaps using 1.2 is more appropriate.
But where did you come up with that 65k number?
65K.
now.
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: Assumption: 1 perm = 1 485
: Reason: (EB2perm + NIW )X family people - (Demand destruction + EB3) = 0
: So FY2008 to FY2010 total EB2 + EB3 IC 485 is 65K.
: Assume 20K is EB3 PERM, then EB2IC is 45K.
: Assume EB2IC 485 before FY2008 is 20K, then total EB2IC 485 inventory is 65K.
: Assume EB2IC supply is 30K SO + 5.6K quote = 36K, then PD up to FY2010 can
: get GC less than 2 years from the beginning of FY2012, and 1.5 year from now.
: Conclusion: All of PD before FY2010 can get GC by the red-leaf season in
: 2013.
|
H******i
发帖数: 4704 | |
s******t
发帖数: 926 | 5 OK, now EB2/3 ratio is a big assumption.
If we have this ratio, everything would be very clear....
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31447163_0.html
|
H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 6 下面这个链接的数据是民间数据，各位自行处理：
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/p/perm-database-eb-catego
【在 s******t 的大作中提到】
: OK, now EB2/3 ratio is a big assumption.
: If we have this ratio, everything would be very clear....
|
s******t
发帖数: 926 | 7 Link didn't work, but I think somebody used prevailing wage 60k as cutoff. I
don't think that's accurate at all, definitely an overestimate for EB2.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: 下面这个链接的数据是民间数据，各位自行处理：
: http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/p/perm-database-eb-catego
|
H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 8 link works now.
I
【在 s******t 的大作中提到】
: Link didn't work, but I think somebody used prevailing wage 60k as cutoff. I
: don't think that's accurate at all, definitely an overestimate for EB2.
|
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 9 OK
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: link works now.
:
: I
|
