c**s
发帖数: 159 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Immigration 讨论区 】
发信人: tybms (昵称太短), 信区: Immigration
标 题: 7月18 奥本checking in
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jul 19 10:59:21 2019, 美东)
Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (7-18-19)
Question: We have heard rumblings from local USCIS field officers that the
July 2019 Visa Bulletin is “no longer in effect” and the August 2019 Visa
Bulletin is now applicable. I know there’s not a simple answer, but is that
correct? If so, do you know whether USCIS will still accept adjustment of
status (AOS) filings based on the July 2019 Visa Bulletin?
Answer: Beginning during the last two weeks of May 2019, the actual use of
numbers by USCIS began to increase significantly in most employment-based
categories. The most recent USCIS report of future demand for visa numbers (
i.e., July through September 2019) indicated totals which could not be
accommodated under the FY2019 annual limits.
What you heard is partially correct for the Employment Third (EB-3) and EB-3
Other Workers (EW) preference categories (only), where it was necessary to
impose the August 2019 Final Action Dates on future requests for numbers to
control number use within the annual limits for those countries. Prior to
this happening, USCIS had already received July visa authorizations for all
requests which had been subsequently submitted to my office, and for
applicants with priority dates within the August dates. Additional
corrective action will be required to control number use in particular
preference categories on a Worldwide or individual country basis prior to
the end of September 2019. In fact, it has just become necessary to make the
India EB-1 preference “unavailable” for the remainder of the fiscal year.
USCIS will be able to continue processing such cases at their discretion and
submit requests for visa authorization as they normally would. The
difference is that cases which are not within the August Final Action Date
will be held in my database pending future availability of numbers, most
likely effective October 1, 2019. If the return of unused EB-3/EW numbers
which have already been provided for July use (primarily overseas cases)
were to permit such action, it is (remotely) possible that we could make
some numbers available in September by slightly advancing the EB-3 Final
Action Date.
Language in Section 1. of the August 2019 Visa Bulletin covers the possible
need to take such corrective action:
Procedures for determining dates. Consular officers are required to report
to the Department of State documentarily qualified applicants for
numerically limited visas; USCIS reports applicants for adjustment of status
. Allocations in the charts below were made, to the extent possible, in
chronological order of reported priority dates, for demand received by July
5th. If not all demand could be satisfied, the category or foreign state in
which demand was excessive was deemed oversubscribed. The final action date
for an oversubscribed category is the priority date of the first applicant
who could not be reached within the numerical limits. If it becomes
necessary during the monthly allocation process to retrogress a final action
date, supplemental requests for numbers will be honored only if the
priority date falls within the new final action date announced in this
bulletin. If at any time an annual limit were reached, it would be necessary
to immediately make the preference category “unavailable”, and no further
requests for numbers would be honored.
Question: Has there been an official announcement or notice about the August
2019 Visa Bulletin being put into effect on July 11, 2019? Does this apply
to the Employment Fifth (EB-5) preference category?
Answer: As mentioned above, the August 2019 Final Action Dates have been
imposed on the EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers preference categories. This has
been required to control number use within those annual limits.
There is no update to the Department of State web site when such action
occurs as numbers have already been provided for use by applicants whose
cases have been deemed qualified when the July 2019 Final Action Dates were
announced. Subsequent applications were acted upon until the need for
corrective action, as described in Section 1. of the August 2019 Visa
Bulletin, became necessary.
Comment: USCIS’s inability to continue to issue immigrant visas in
categories which would otherwise be current per the July 2019 Visa Bulletin
but for the annual visa limit being reached does not necessarily prevent
scheduled interviews from being conducted by USCIS. USCIS interviews that
were already scheduled may continue in USCIS’s discretion.
Family-Based Preference Categories
Similar to last month, the August F-2A Final Action Date will remain current
across categories, and the Dates for Filing for F-2A applications has been
advanced. Charlie expects that, absent an unanticipated surge in demand, the
F-2A Final Action Date will continue to remain current across categories
through September 2019. Nonetheless, one should not expect this category to
remain current for long. When the expected surge in demand materializes, it
will prompt the imposition of a Final Action Date. This date will likely be
sometime in 2017 or 2018.
The family-based (FB) Mexico preference categories continue to receive
fairly sizeable demand for numbers from USCIS, impacting movement in those
categories. In contrast, very low levels of overseas demand continue in many
of the FB Philippines categories.
Employment-Based Preference Categories
General Predictions:
Employment based demand has increased steadily since late May 2019 in the EB
-1, EB-2, EB-3 and EB-3 Other Worker categories.
Whereas in past years, Charlie often predicted that employment-based
preference categories which retrogressed towards the end of the fiscal year
“would have a full recovery” in October (the beginning of the next fiscal
year), his prediction in the August 2019 Visa Bulletin is much more guarded.
Charlie merely indicates in Section D. of the August 2019 Visa Bulletin
that “every effort will be made to return these final action dates to those
which applied for July.” This means that while Charlie hopes that he will
be able to bring these dates back to where they were in July, demand levels
are so high and unpredictable, that one should not automatically count on a
return to the July Final Action Date levels at the start of FY2020.
Charlie cautions that an immediate cut-off in visa usage, similar to that
for EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers, could very well occur in the EB-1 and EB-2
categories at any time before the end of the fiscal year if demand continues
to remain high for these categories. No forward movement in these Final
Action Dates should be expected before October for certain employment-based
visa categories. Any potential movement in these preferences would be
subject to a change in the current USCIS demand pattern, and a larger than
expected return of unused July numbers by overseas posts.
EB-1:
As predicted last month, the Final Action Date for EB-1 Worldwide (including
EB-1 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-1 Mexico, EB-1 Philippines,
and EB-1 Vietnam) retrogresses in August 2019 almost two years to July 1,
2016. The Final Action Date for EB-1 China, which was May 8, 2017 in July,
joins the rest of world countries in retrogressing to July 1, 2016 in August
2019. The Final Action Date for EB-1 India holds at January 1, 2015.
EB-2:
The week prior to Memorial Day, Charlie started receiving data from USCIS
that was different than what he had received in the past. This data showed
that demand in the employment-based categories started picking up, with the
daily totals increasing quickly. For example, through May 21, 2019, 1,800
numbers were used in the EB-2 category. Between May 22nd and May 31st,
another 1,300 numbers were used, with this high pace continuing into June.
Not only is the actual demand high, but as mentioned earlier, USCIS’s
projected future usage also remains high relative to the monthly demand
targets for number use.
As a result of this high demand, all countries are subject to a Final Action
Date in August. EB-2 Worldwide (including EB-2 China and EB-2 for all
countries except for India) will have a Final Action Date of January 1, 2017
, while EB-2 India advances one week to May 2, 2009.
EB-3:
EB-3 China Other Workers holds at November 22, 2007
The August 2019 Final Action Date for EB-3 Worldwide, EB-3 El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, EB-3 Philippines, and EB-3 Vietnam
remains at July 1, 2016. Charlie indicated that it is very difficult to say
at this time whether these categories will become current again in October
2019. EB-3 India, which already had a Final Action Date, retrogresses
further to January 1, 2006 in August.
Between April and May 2019, EB-3 demand increased over 25%. From May to June
, the overall demand increased by more than 45%. During the first week of
July 2019, EB-3 had already used 36% of the total numbers used during the
entire month of June. This in turn necessitated immediate action to limit
future number use by applicants with priority dates later than the Final
Action Dates imposed for each country in the August 2019 Visa Bulletin. This
is happening because number use is approaching the worldwide annual limit,
and some countries have reached or are very close to reaching, their annual
limits. USCIS interviews that were already scheduled may continue in USCIS’
s discretion. If the application is approvable, rather than receiving a visa
number, USCIS’s request for a visa number will be placed in Charlie’s
pending demand file and will be authorized for use once the applicant’s
priority date is once again “current”. Having cases in the pending demand
file provides Charlie with much needed visibility to demand which allows him
to move the Final Action Dates in a more calculated manner.
Charlie cautions that an immediate cut-off in visa usage could very well
occur in the EB-1 and EB-2 categories at any time before the end of the
fiscal year if demand continues to remain high.
The fact that demand has increased so dramatically is not a surprise to
Charlie. What is unexpected is that it is happening much sooner than
expected. Prior to FY2018, if such corrective action was required, it
normally occurred in September. In addition, the issues that arose in FY2018
were attributed to the changes in USCIS processing of employment cases.
At a macro level, the fact that it may be necessary to limit/cut-off future
use of numbers means that all of the numbers available under the applicable
annual limits will have been used. However, for applicants for which the
ability to immediately file an I-485 adjustment of status application is
critical to remaining in the U.S., the retrogression may have significant
negative impact.
EB-4:
The Final Action Date for EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras and EB-4
Mexico remains at July 1, 2016 for August 2019, with all other countries
remaining current. While it is possible that there may be slight movement in
these categories in September, it is unlikely. At present it is expected
that EB-4 India will remain current through the end of FY2019.
EB-5:
In August, the Final Action Dates for EB-5 India and EB-5 Vietnam retrogress
to October 15, 2014. Contrary to expectations which may have been set in
blog posts, one should not expect EB-5 India or Vietnam to return to current
status in October 2019. As with the retrogressions in the EB-1 category,
going forward, EB-5 India and EB-5 Vietnam should be expected to have a
Final Action Date imposed. Charlie unequivocally stated that EB-5 India and
EB-5 Vietnam will not return to current status in October, and that both
will be subject to Final Action Dates for the foreseeable future.
Diversity Visa Lottery:
The August Visa Bulletin posts results of the Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery
for this fiscal year. All categories will be current for both August and
September 2019. To the extent that the winners are eligible and promptly
submitted their documentation and timely responded to any inquiries from the
Kentucky Consular Center (KCC) and/or the consular post in order to be
scheduled for interview, they should be able to receive their immigrant
visas by the end of September 2019. Any such cases not finalized and
approved by close of business (COB) September 30, 2019 will no longer be
entitled to status or eligible to receive DV immigrant visas.
Since 1999, 5,000 DV numbers were offset to support the NACARA program. As
there are very few remaining NACARA matters, going into 2020, the vast
majority of these previously diverted 5,000 numbers will once again be
available for usage under the DV program. | z******6
发帖数: 1 | | c**s
发帖数: 159 | 3 8月3的排期已经在7月启用了
：感觉很像上个月这个时候的预测啊，再说一遍? | s*********t
发帖数: 1 | 4 看不懂eb3，求大牛解释一下。感觉啥也没说啊，还不如上个月信息多 | s*****k
发帖数: 7 | 5
好像EB3在7月中旬前就已经开始honor8月的排期了，一部分7月后面投递的eb3没法在这
个财年确认一个RD？
总体的感觉是新财年开始后要慢慢地走。
【在 s*********t 的大作中提到】
: 看不懂eb3，求大牛解释一下。感觉啥也没说啊，还不如上个月信息多
| s*********t
发帖数: 1 | 6 所以其实他没有提eb3到了下一年的quota会怎么样，看起来是快不了了。 | c**s
发帖数: 159 | 7 那8月eb3咋办。。。
：
：【 在 snakerabbit (snakerabbit) 的大作中提到: 】 | s*****k
发帖数: 7 | 8 看起来奥本没有明确回复那个问题在打太极啊...我感觉是下面两个因素：
1. 7月的EB3C进得太多，ROW排期没有退到让奥本comfortable的地步。
2. USCIS发visa就像美国人施工高速路一样，旁边挂一个牌子说工期是18.10-19.9月，
实际上前80%的时间你都看着工人聊天和挖掘机闲在那里，奥本的办公室也跟我们一样
在旁边看着。结果突然一夜之间新的沥青也铺好了，道路桥水泥也灌上了，今年工期好
像可以按期完成了。这样一旦visa名额到达了预期目标就变成了U，EB3收AOS这件事情
，就得等到新财年再开始“施工”新一段的时候奥本根据发的visa节奏来调整收AOS的
速度。
我的猜测是7月后半的AOS就作为PD没有current就提交的人，要等待新财年的排期才能
收到一个RD。一个positive的因素是：由于USCIS给走CP的预留了名额，如果到财年结
束这些名额没用完的话能让EB3稍进一些。如果新财年进不到16年7月就得再等着。如果
是这样的话8月EB3排期还要再退，退到没什么人可以交表的一个时间。欢迎拍砖。
在窗外看着施工房子的老墨10分钟后。。。想到另外一个理解的方式：
1.EB3 ROW 7月份是C，但8月份要退到16年7月份，所以在8月截止前涌入了一大批ROW的
人士投递AOS。
2.结合USCIS发visa从5月下旬增速开始，奥本预测不到8月份今年的任务达标了，所以
希望提前关上提交AOS的门。也就是说对于7月下旬投递AOS的ROW人士统一使用16.7这个
时间，我猜几乎所有ROW人的PD都会在这之后，这一波人士将在新财年后拿到RD。
如果是这样，下个月可能不会再退（因为ROW的人交AOS已经被挡住），新财年EB3C能够
慢慢往前走。希望这个理解更准确一些。。。
: 那8月eb3咋办。。。
: ：
: ：【 在 snakerabbit (snakerabbit) 的大作中提到: 】
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 那8月eb3咋办。。。
:
: ：
: ：【 在 snakerabbit (snakerabbit) 的大作中提到: 】
| c**s
发帖数: 159 | 9 关心的是面试的怎么办。。。
：看起来奥本没有明确回复那个问题在打太极啊...我感觉是下面两个因素：
： | s*****k
发帖数: 7 | 10 面完然后等表a再次超过你的pd后发卡。
: 关心的是面试的怎么办。。。
: ：看起来奥本没有明确回复那个问题在打太极啊...我感觉是下面两个因素：
: ：
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 关心的是面试的怎么办。。。
:
: ：看起来奥本没有明确回复那个问题在打太极啊...我感觉是下面两个因素：
: ：
| y******8
发帖数: 48 | | a******5
发帖数: 1 | 12 他这个说的是EB3 other worker吧
你知道EB3分两种, 有两个排期的
我感觉他这次预测完全没提EB3 | s*****k
发帖数: 7 | 13
"What you heard is partially correct for the Employment Third (EB-3) and EB-
3
Other Workers (EW) preference categories (only), where it was necessary to
impose the August 2019 Final Action Dates on future requests for numbers to
control number use within the annual limits for those countries"
【在 a******5 的大作中提到】
: 他这个说的是EB3 other worker吧
: 你知道EB3分两种, 有两个排期的
: 我感觉他这次预测完全没提EB3
| c**s
发帖数: 159 | 14 both
：他这个说的是EB3 other worker吧
：你知道EB3分两种, 有两个排期的 |
|
