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发帖数: 159 | 1 Link: https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
Breaking News: Following determination of the dates listed in the September
2019 visa bulletin, the EB-3 category has become unavailable and will remain
so through the end of this fiscal year. This includes not only EB-3 China
and EB-3 India, but the entire category, including EB-3 Worldwide, EB-3 El
Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, EB-3 Philippines and EB-3
Vietnam.
Charlie mentioned the possibility that this might occur on page 8 of the
September visa bulletin when he stated that “(i)t is likely that corrective
action will also be required for other preferences prior to the end of the
fiscal year.”
Unless advised otherwise by USCIS, EB-3 applicants should still appear for
scheduled AOS interviews, as failure to attend can result in a denial of the
AOS application. The officer may not proceed with the interview and could
dismiss the applicant saying that the interview will be rescheduled. In many
cases, officers will proceed with the interview. If the interview does
proceed, all clearances are received and the application is deemed
approvable, the officer should request a visa number. This request will go
into Charlie’s “pending demand file” at the Department of State. When
this occurs, a visa number will automatically be authorized to USCIS for use
effective the first day of the month in which the applicant’s priority
date becomes current again.
Charlie cautions that, similar to EB-3, an immediate cut-off in visa usage
could very well occur in the EB-1 and EB-2 categories at any time before the
end of the fiscal year if the level of demand results in those annual
limits being reached prior to the end of the fiscal year.
The fact that demand has resulted in various annual limits having been
reached is not a surprise to Charlie and is his goal each year. What is
unexpected is that it is happening much sooner than expected. Prior to FY-
2018 if such action were required it had normally occurred in September, and
the FY-2018 issues could be attributed to the changes in USCIS processing
of employment cases.
At a macro level, the fact that there may be a need to limit/cut-off future
use of numbers is a positive situation to the extent that it means that all
of the numbers available under the applicable annual limits will have been
used. However, for individual applicants in which the ability to immediately
file for Adjustment of Status is critical to remaining in the U.S., the
retrogression may have significant negative impact.
Family-based Preference Categories
As has been the case for the past few months, the F2A Final Action Date will
remain current across categories for September 2019.
Fairly sizeable USCIS demand in the FB Mexico preference categories
continues.
The continued lack of significant demand in the FB Philippines preference
categories has resulted in artificially rapid movement in those final action
dates. This continues to be done to maximize number use under the various
annual limits.
Apart from Mexico, there seems to be lack of interest in the family-
sponsored preference categories based on the failure of applicants to act on
their case in timely manner. As we move into the next fiscal year, AILA
members should expect movements in the family-sponsored preference
categories that are consistent with what we have seen in FY2019; until the
demand patterns sufficiently improve.
Employment-based Preference Categories
EB-1:
As we enter FY2020, you can expect to see the EB-1 categories continue to be
separated into three different Final Action Dates – one for EB-1 Worldwide
(including EB-1 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-1 Mexico, EB-1
Philippines, and EB-1 Vietnam), two others for EB-1 China and EB-1 India
respectively.
Do not expect any of the EB-1 categories to become current at any time in
the foreseeable future. Charlie is hesitant to predict what the Final Action
Dates will be in the EB-1 categories for October. While he hopes the EB-1
Worldwide and EB-1 China dates will revert to where they were in July 2019,
it is possible they will not fully recover. However, regarding EB-1 India,
which is now unavailable, Charlie is confident that it will not recover in
October and may not do so for the foreseeable future.
In September 2019, EB-1 Worldwide (including EB-1 El Salvador, Guatemala and
Honduras, EB-1 Mexico, EB-1 Philippines, and EB-1 Vietnam) advances 15
months, from July 1, 2016 to October 1, 2017. The reason these categories
were able to advance is that the heavy surge in USCIS demand for that began
in mid-May through early July 2019 did not persist. Not only did this demand
not persist, but the return of unused EB-1numbers from consular posts
abroad provided additional room to allow the advancement of these categories.
In contrast, EB-1 India has become unavailable due to continued high demand,
which resulted in full use of its numbers for FY19. The pent-up demand that
will continue to accrue for the 6 weeks that this category remains
unavailable will further delay the category’s ability to recover.
EB-1 China demand remains strong, resulting in a retrogression of 2.5 years
in the September visa bulletin to January 1, 2014 in order to limit any use
of numbers for the remainder of the year.
EB-2:
EB-2 Worldwide (including EB-2 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-2
Mexico, EB-2 Philippines,and EB-2 Vietnam) advances one year to January 1,
2018, while EB-2 India inches forward 6 days to May 8, 2009. EB-2 China
holds at January 1, 2017 for September 2019. Like EB-1 Worldwide, the
movement for EB-2 Worldwide is due to the lessened demand and additional
room made available after consular posts returned unused numbers.
Unlike the other employment-based preference categories, the demand trends
for EB-2 are such that Charlie is more confident that the Final Action Dates
for this category (i.e., EB-2 Worldwide, including EB-2 El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, EB-2 Mexico, EB-2 Philippines, and EB-2 Vietnam)
will be able to recover to current in either October or November 2019.
EB-3:
Charlie is unable to say when the Final Action Dates for EB-3 Worldwide, EB-
3 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, EB-3 Philippines, and EB-3
Vietnam, will once again become current. While it is possible that this
could occur in October 2019, it might also take longer. Charlie hopes that
there can be rapid recovery for EB-3 India, which also retrogressed earlier,
over a period of several months. However, a timeline for recovery is not
guaranteed.
Already scheduled USCIS interviews may continue in USCIS’ discretion for
all categories that have either retrogressed or become “unavailable”. If
the application is approvable, rather than receiving a visa number
immediately, USCIS’s request for a visa number will be placed in Charlie’s
pending demand file and will be authorized for use once the Final Action
Date advances beyond the applicant’s priority date. Having cases in the
pending demand file provides Charlie with much needed visibility to demand
which allows him to move the Final Action Dates in a more calculated manner
without the volatility which has been experienced.
For September 2019, EB-3 China Other Workers holds at November 22, 2007.
EB-4
The entire EB-4 category is “Unavailable” for September, and that status
has already been imposed during August 2019. Charlie discussed demand
resulting from an increase in decisions for Special Immigrant Juvenile (SIJ)
cases in June 2019. The result of these decisions being a significant and
unexpected increase in demand for June and July 2019. Charlie mentioned that
had this unexpected increase in demand not happened, it would have been
possible to allow most EB-4 categories to be listed as “Current” for the
month of September.
Diversity Visa Lottery
All categories will be current for September. To the extent that the winners
are eligible and had promptly submitted their documentation and timely
responded to any inquiries from the Kentucky Consular Center (KCC) and/or
the post in order to be scheduled for interview, they should be able to
receive their immigrant visas by the end of September. Any such cases not
finalized and approved by close of business (COB) September 30, 2019 will no
longer be entitled to status or eligible to receive DV immigrant visas.
Since 1999, 5,000 DV numbers were offset to support the NACARA program. As
there are very few remaining NACARA matters, going into 2020 the vast
majority of these previously diverted 5,000 numbers will once again be
available for the DV program usage. |
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