c**s
发帖数: 159 | 1 In October, we typically see full recovery or essentially full recovery of
the final action dates from the previous year. Until several years ago,
stakeholders could normally anticipate that low levels of demand would allow
for thousands of unused numbers from EB-4 and EB-5 to become available for
use in the EB-1 category. Not only have those numbers not been available in
recent years, the high demand for numbers has required the application of
final action dates for all countries, and the dates for China and India have
actually retrogressed during the past year. Going into the upcoming fiscal
year, there is no expectation that there will be any extra unused numbers
available to EB-1 India and EB-1 China in the foreseeable future. Charlie
anticipates that both EB-1 India and EB-1 China will be subject to their
minimum statutory limits of (approximately) 2,803 visa numbers for at least
the first half of Fiscal Year 2020.
USCIS has designated the Dates for Filing charts for both family and
employment-based preference cases. For the F2A category, there are
dates listed on the Dates for Filing chart. However, the category is “
current” on the Final Action Dates chart. USCIS has indicated that
applicants in the F2A category may file using the Final Action Dates chart
for October 2019.
Family-based Preference Categories
Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based preference categories will likely remain around the same with
most categories moving at a steady pace similar to what we have seen over
the past few months.
For worldwide family dates, Charlie anticipates potential monthly movement:
F1: Up to two months
F2A: CURRENT, corrective action should be expected by February
F2B: Up to six weeks
F3: Up to one month
F4: Up to six weeks
In a surprising trend F2A demand is still very low with applicants failing
to apply in a timely manner despite the availability of visa numbers on a “
current” basis since July 2019. It is anticipated that F2A demand will
increase in late 2019 or early 2020 and a final action date will be
reestablished. As has been the case for the past few months, the F2A final
action date will remain current across categories for October 2019.
Fairly sizeable demand in the FB Mexico preference categories continues. The
ongoing lack of significant demand in the FB Philippines preference
categories has resulted in artificially rapid movement in those final action
dates. This continues to be done to maximize number use under the various
annual limits. There may need to be some corrective action to this pattern
when/if demand should materialize.
Employment-based Preference Categories
Visa Bulletin Predictions
EB-1:
For more information see the “Breaking News” item at the top of this month
’s check-in. In FY2020, AILA members can expect to see the EB-1 categories
continue to be separated into three different final action dates: One for EB
-1 Worldwide (including EB-1 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-1
Mexico, EB-1 Philippines, and EB-1 Vietnam) and two others for EB-1 China
and EB-1 India respectively. EB-1 India and EB-1 China will continue to have
separate dates and will be subject to the annual minimum per country limit
of approximately 2,803. Charlie would like to remind AILA members that for
planning purposes they should not expect any of the EB-1 categories to
become current at any time in the foreseeable future.
Charlie further predicts that there will not be any movement for EB-1 India
until January 2020 at the earliest. There are currently approximately 16,000
EB-1 India applicants that were interviewed, adjudicated, and are simply
waiting for a visa to become available. Potential upgrades from EB-2 India
could make EB-1 India backlogs worse. EB-1 India is expected to remain
severely backlogged for years, but it is too early to predict what the date
movement may be in the coming years.
Potential EB-1 movement:
Worldwide: Up to 3 months
China: Up to three months
India: Little if any forward movement
EB-2:
EB-2 India will continue to have limited forward movement for the
foreseeable future. This is also true to a lesser extent for EB-2 China,
which reflects a change from years past where there was generally a full
recovery from early year retrogression. Due to overall increase in EB-2
China, Charlie does not expect a full recovery in FY2020.
EB-3 China does not appear to have the same level of demand at this time.
With the inversion of the EB-2 and EB-3 dates, it is possible the EB-2
downgrades will impact movement of the EB-3 China date later in FY2020.
At this point, demand is within the amount of available numbers to satisfy
the needs for EB-2 and EB-3 worldwide. Should increasing levels of demand
begin to materialize it may necessitate setting a final action date for
either EB-2 and/or EB-3 worldwide at some point during the second half of
the fiscal year.
Potential EB-2 movement:
Worldwide: CURRENT
China: Up to two months
India: Up to one week
EB-3:
EB-3 has returned to current status for worldwide, El Salvador, Honduras,
Guatemala, Mexico and Vietnam.
There has been a partial recovery of the dates for EB-3 India, EB-3 China,
and the EB-3 Philippines categories. There may be irregularity in movement
for these categories as Charlie does not have as much visibility into
pending demand. EB-3 India will have little if any forward movement until
possibly January 2020.
As discussed above, at this point, demand is keeping pace with available
numbers to satisfy the needs for EB-2 and EB-3 worldwide. In the coming
months, increased demand may materialize which would necessitate setting a
priority date for EB-2 and/or EB-3 worldwide.
Demand has been steadily increasing for EB-3 Other Workers. Of particular
note is the tremendous increase in demand for EB-3 Other Workers from Mexico
. The final action date is typically the same for EB-3 and EB-3 Other
Workers, however, separate dates may need to be imposed for some categories
later in FY2020.
Potential EB-3 movement:
Worldwide: CURRENT
China: Little if any forward movement
India: Little if any forward movement
Mexico: Will remain at the Worldwide date
Philippines: Up to several months
EB-4
Special Immigrant Juveniles (SIJ) is using a vast amount of numbers under
the EB-4 annual limit. The uptick in demand explains why EB-4 El Salvador,
Guatemala, and Honduras are subject to final action date. In years past,
many of the EB-4 numbers would have been unused, allowing them to fall up to
EB-1.
Potential EB-4 movement:
Most Countries: CURRENT
El Salvador: Little if any forward movement
Guatemala: Little if any forward movement
Honduras: Little if any forward movement
Mexico: Up to four months
EB-5
It is still too early to know how much movement there will be in the EB-5
preference. EB-5 China, EB-5 India, and EB-5 Vietnam will continue to have
final action dates. Despite rumors to the contrary, EB-5 India will continue
to have a final action date in the foreseeable future and is not expected
to return to “current” status. The same will be true for EB-5 Vietnam. If
the annual limit for EB-5 were higher, it would benefit China, India, and
Vietnam. More information is expected to be available for this category
after mid-October.
Potential EB-5 movement:
Worldwide: CURRENT
China: Too early to predict
India: Too early to predict
Vietnam: Too early to predict | s*****k
发帖数: 7 | 2 感谢，升降梯的部分和对EB2C一整年没法recovery的预测基本和我看到10月VB时想得一
致。 | A*****a
发帖数: 1 | | b********0
发帖数: 1 | | a******i
发帖数: 283 | 5 感谢cpcs!
allow
for
in
have
fiscal
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: In October, we typically see full recovery or essentially full recovery of
: the final action dates from the previous year. Until several years ago,
: stakeholders could normally anticipate that low levels of demand would allow
: for thousands of unused numbers from EB-4 and EB-5 to become available for
: use in the EB-1 category. Not only have those numbers not been available in
: recent years, the high demand for numbers has required the application of
: final action dates for all countries, and the dates for China and India have
: actually retrogressed during the past year. Going into the upcoming fiscal
: year, there is no expectation that there will be any extra unused numbers
: available to EB-1 India and EB-1 China in the foreseeable future. Charlie
| a******i
发帖数: 283 | 6 目前看也就睡up to 一年。可能会提前醒也不一定。
【在 A*****a 的大作中提到】
: 就是说走eb2没交表的基本可以洗洗睡了是吧
| c**s
发帖数: 159 | | b********0
发帖数: 1 | | t*******5
发帖数: 27 | 9 不觉得很奇怪吗？ EB2积压多却预计每个月进两个月，EB3积压少预计Move little if
any | a******i
发帖数: 283 | 10 我觉得不矛盾。
Eb3 move little是不是已经把eb2 降级那些人考虑进去了？这样看起来变化更smooth.
eb2积压多，可能是指2015年下半年以后的demand上来了？并不影响排期从2015年1月开
始前进两个月。
if
【在 t*******5 的大作中提到】
: 不觉得很奇怪吗？ EB2积压多却预计每个月进两个月，EB3积压少预计Move little if
: any
| | | s***d
发帖数: 15421 | 11 cp niw大量出现？
smooth.
【在 a******i 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得不矛盾。
: Eb3 move little是不是已经把eb2 降级那些人考虑进去了？这样看起来变化更smooth.
: eb2积压多，可能是指2015年下半年以后的demand上来了？并不影响排期从2015年1月开
: 始前进两个月。
:
: if
| H********t
发帖数: 4 | 12 EB-4
Special Immigrant Juveniles (SIJ) is using a vast amount of numbers under
the EB-4 annual limit. The uptick in demand explains why EB-4 El Salvador,
Guatemala, and Honduras are subject to final action date. In years past,
many of the EB-4 numbers would have been unused, allowing them to fall up to
EB-1.
我老很久很久之前就说了 EB绿卡的乱象里 有相当大一部分来自于EB4 SIJ的abuse
本版左逼也好川粉也好 只知道中国人内部互掐 压根就没人想去解决根本问题
allow
for
in
have
fiscal
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: In October, we typically see full recovery or essentially full recovery of
: the final action dates from the previous year. Until several years ago,
: stakeholders could normally anticipate that low levels of demand would allow
: for thousands of unused numbers from EB-4 and EB-5 to become available for
: use in the EB-1 category. Not only have those numbers not been available in
: recent years, the high demand for numbers has required the application of
: final action dates for all countries, and the dates for China and India have
: actually retrogressed during the past year. Going into the upcoming fiscal
: year, there is no expectation that there will be any extra unused numbers
: available to EB-1 India and EB-1 China in the foreseeable future. Charlie
| s*****k
发帖数: 7 | 13 不矛盾啊 - EB2退了2年后再两个月两个月的进呀。
: 不觉得很奇怪吗？ EB2积压多却预计每个月进两个月，EB3积压少预计Move
little if
: any
【在 t*******5 的大作中提到】
: 不觉得很奇怪吗？ EB2积压多却预计每个月进两个月，EB3积压少预计Move little if
: any
| s****y
发帖数: 958 | 14 15年4月排期的还在等新公司的PERM下来（估计年底之前）应该交EB2还是EB3？ | c**s
发帖数: 159 | 15 这么早pd...
：15年4月排期的还在等新公司的PERM下来（估计年底之前）应该交EB2还是EB3？ |
|
