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发帖数: 159 | 1 https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
Visa Bulletin Predictions by DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (10-22-19)
Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-based Preference Categories
The F2A Final Action Date, which became current in July 2019, remains
current across all countries for November. This trend has been surprising
because Charlie expected that there would be a surge in demand which would
have required imposition of a Final Action Date no later than January. The
demand for F2A across countries remains extremely low, with applicants not
responding to the agent of choice letters, and at this time there is no
indication that a date will need to be imposed in the near future.
The Mexico family-based preference categories, with the exception of F2A
Mexico which is current, will continue to experience limited movement for
the foreseeable future due to a high level of demand. Expect movements
consistent with those experienced during the past fiscal year.
Expect to see continued rapid movement in the Final Action Dates for the
Philippines family-based preference categories, in an effort to generate
demand.
The demand trends in the family-based preference categories are unusual. In
the past, the Final Action Dates were also very old, yet demand materialized
when the dates advanced. More recently, despite rapid forward movement in
the Final Action Dates, applicants are simply not coming forward to process
their immigrant visas at the rate that they had done so in the past.
As a result of this low demand, Charlie may start to advance the family-
based Final Action Dates at a faster rate than reported in the October 2019
Visa Bulletin. Keep in mind that when significant demand finally starts to
materialize from this forward movement, it could cause date movements to
slow, stop, or retrogress.
Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-based Preference Categories
For November, the EB-1 Final Action Dates advanced according to this
prediction with EB-1 Worldwide(including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras
, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) advancing approximately 5 weeks from
April 22, 2018 to June 1, 2018; EB-1 China advancing a full three months
from November 1, 2016 to February 1, 2017; and EB-1 India holding at January
1, 2015.
Charlie noted that for November, EB-1 China advanced the anticipated three
full months due to lower than expected demand, but cautioned that the rate
of advancement could slow down.
Do not expect EB-1 India to advance for some time since there is already
significant number use and pending demand in that category. Charlie noted
that he has already given out 17% of the targeted EB-1 India numbers set
aside for Q1 of the fiscal year.
Since EB-1 China and EB-1 India will be subject to their per country limits
in the foreseeable future, the only possibility of more rapid movement in
these categories is if demand for visas in EB-1 Worldwide (including El
Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) were to
fall below that allowed under the overall annual limit.
The latest report Charlie received from USCIS shows significantly lower
demand in EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras,
Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) compared to the last few years. He notes
that the potential demand reported for EB-2 Worldwide and EB-3 Worldwide
combined dwarfs the reported demand for EB-1 Worldwide (including El
Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam).
If this low demand trend continues, EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) could potentially
return to current at some point this fiscal year. Do not expect to see this
happen prior to April at the earliest, and be cautioned that a significant
increase in demand in this category could prevent this possibility. If EB-1
Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico,
Philippines, and Vietnam) does return to current again, EB-1 India, and
possibly China, would benefit from the “otherwise unused numbers” which
would allow the Final Action Date to advance at a faster pace for those two
countries.
In the past, Charlie was able to wait until closer to the end of the fiscal
year to redistribute the otherwise unused worldwide numbers in the EB-3 and
EB-1 categories, allowing the India and China categories to advance. More
recently, the high demand in EB-3 and EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam), prevented these
categories for China and India from advancing as they had in the past. This
has resulted in significant amounts of pending demand awaiting forward
movement of the Final Action Dates, particularly for India. Charlie reports
that there are 17,000 pre-adjudicated EB-1 Indiarequests pending at USCIS or
overseas posts. No forward movement is expected in EB-1 India through
January. However, when the date does begin to move, there is a potential for
EB-1 India to leap forward by up to 6-8 months because of low concentration
of demand in the weekly groupings.
EB-2:
EB-2 Worldwide (including EB-2 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-2
Mexico, EB-2 Philippines, and EB-2 Vietnam) remains current for November and
is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future.
In November, EB-2 India advances only one day from May 12, 2009 to May 13,
2009, which is consistent with last month’s prediction that it would
advance at a pace of “(u)p to one week.” Charlie is starting to see an
increase in upgrades from EB-3 India to EB-2 India, with the numbers
requested so far in October most likely being attributable to upgrade
requests.
EB-2 China advances two months in November from January 1, 2015 to March 1,
2015. Given that the Final Action Date for EB-3 China (November 1, 2015) is
eight months ahead of EB-2 China, it is likely to prompt downgrades which
could take the pressure off of EB-2 China demand, causing that category to
advance.
EB-3:
The EB-3 category bears watching as we continue to move into Q2 of the
fiscal year and beyond, and especially EB-3 Other Workers. Charlie is very
surprised at the high level of numbers used in this category this fiscal
year as well as pending demand for this category, noting that it is
significantly higher than it has been in the past to the tune of thousands.
Nevertheless, Charlie still expects EB-3 Worldwide (including EB-3 El
Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, and EB-3 Vietnam) to remain
current through at least January.
EB-3 China is receiving a high level of downgrade requests, with 300
requests in October alone, causing its Final Action Date to hold at November
1, 2015 for November. As noted above, if this trend continues it will limit
the advancement of EB-3 China while potentially increasing the rate of
advancement for EB-2 China.
EB-3 Philippines had pent up demand but the lower incoming demand trend
allowed the date to advance 3.5 months to February 1, 2018 for November.
EB-4:
The Final Action Date for EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras continues
to hold at July 1, 2016 for November, while EB-4 Mexico advances just under
two months to July 22, 2017. All other countries (EB-4 Worldwide, including
China, India, Philippines and Vietnam) remain current.
Do not expect to see any forward movement in EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and
Honduras for the foreseeable future, as a result of high levels of demand
within the established date.
Demand in EB-4 Mexico is starting to rise and Charlie plans to watch this
category closely.
EB-4 India, which became unavailable at the end of the fiscal year, is
recovering at a higher than normal rate. If its current demand trend
continues, the category will become oversubscribed much earlier than in past
years, but the category should remain available through at least January.
Whereas in the past, we were cautioned that there might be a Final Action
Date imposed for EB-4 India in the last quarter of the fiscal year, current
demand trends suggest that this could occur as early as Q2 of the fiscal
year.
EB-5:
As Charlie will be speaking at the Invest in the USA (IIUSA) EB-5 Conference
in Seattle on Tuesday, October 29, 2019, we are not be including EB-5
projections. |
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