d***t
发帖数: 133 | 1 作者： 李稻葵 清华经管学院金融系主任
来源： 新财富 发布时间：2008年3月15日
入主华尔街，中美软脱钩
今天的美国财长和美联储主席组成了经济政策的“梦之队”，他们应对次贷危机的政策
非常合理，因此，美国实体经济不会因此进入持续的衰退。反而某些新兴市场会因为资
金倒流成为次贷危机的最大受害者。次贷危机为中国提供了重大的战略机遇：入主华尔
街主流金融机构，提升金融控制力，从而扫清中国作为经济大国崛起的未来障碍，同时
采取合理政策，实现中美经济的软脱钩。
若干年后，当我们重温次贷危机这一历史事件时会发现，它既是世界格局的拐点，也是
中国作为经济大国崛起的重大历史机遇。
次贷危机的本质
以美国为发源地的次贷危机，带来了两大后果。其一是世人有目共睹的金融危机。
由于在金融领域，一大批原本属于银行经营的房屋抵押贷款被打包转让给了证券市场，
在这一过程中，风险被大大低估了。随着宏观经济转冷，许多买房家庭付不起贷款利息
，风险才大规模暴露出来，于是产生了一系列连锁反应。次贷危机的基本教训是，即便
在美国这个世界上最发达的金融市场，如果一个金融产品的交易链条拉得特别长，其中
由道德风险产生的 | f*****0
发帖数: 489 | 2 "由于在金融领域，一大批原本属于银行经营的房屋抵押贷款被打包转让给了证券市场
，在这一过程中，风险被大大低估了。随着宏观经济转冷，许多买房家庭付不起贷款利
息，风险才大规模暴露出来，于是产生了一系列连锁反应。"
that really isn't why this is a crisis. starting in the late 1980s and early
1990s, the government pushed hard for high home ownership (aka the american
dream), especially among low income families. Under the CRA, the banks were
enticed to advance risky loans to the low income borrowers who otherwise
wouldn't have qualified; and under the legal threat of "discriminatory
lending", the banks w | i*******e
发帖数: 349 | 3 Well said, it appears to me(I don't know much about this crisis). It seems
some people claim, the pricing models of financial firms take the historical
path/data as given (partial equilibrium model?), but fails to recognize the
effect of their collective behavior on such "historical path". Is that true
or a valid argument?
early
american
were
borrowers.
【在 f*****0 的大作中提到】
: "由于在金融领域，一大批原本属于银行经营的房屋抵押贷款被打包转让给了证券市场
: ，在这一过程中，风险被大大低估了。随着宏观经济转冷，许多买房家庭付不起贷款利
: 息，风险才大规模暴露出来，于是产生了一系列连锁反应。"
: that really isn't why this is a crisis. starting in the late 1980s and early
: 1990s, the government pushed hard for high home ownership (aka the american
: dream), especially among low income families. Under the CRA, the banks were
: enticed to advance risky loans to the low income borrowers who otherwise
: wouldn't have qualified; and under the legal threat of "discriminatory
: lending", the banks w
| k***y
发帖数: 133 | 4 I don't buy this argument personally. I do not know much practice, so my
opinion may be completely wrong.
From what I know, the rating is so important in this market, which is kinda
weird to me. For example, no institution investors will buy equities just
based on recommendations of some experts, say, analysts, however, they buy
fixed income products just based on ratings (not all, but a lot).
Those who could know best of the quality of the loan won't care much about
the risk as long as they c
【在 i*******e 的大作中提到】
: Well said, it appears to me(I don't know much about this crisis). It seems
: some people claim, the pricing models of financial firms take the historical
: path/data as given (partial equilibrium model?), but fails to recognize the
: effect of their collective behavior on such "historical path". Is that true
: or a valid argument?
:
: early
: american
: were
: borrowers.
| f*****0
发帖数: 489 | 5
historical
the
true
the models used are most stochastic models assuming no systematic failures
that would upset historical patterns.
In other words, there are small disturbances to the history.
This goes into the foundamentals of risk management: expect the unexpected.
many seemingly unreleated factors can all in a sudden become highly
correlated, and that can kill you.
【在 i*******e 的大作中提到】
: Well said, it appears to me(I don't know much about this crisis). It seems
: some people claim, the pricing models of financial firms take the historical
: path/data as given (partial equilibrium model?), but fails to recognize the
: effect of their collective behavior on such "historical path". Is that true
: or a valid argument?
:
: early
: american
: were
: borrowers.
| w********a
发帖数: 32 | 6 不知道pricing models 有多大的影响. 证劵化场和投资银行是这个链上的中间环节,最
后的当然是投资者. 开始的环节是发放贷款的公司,还有把贷款打包卖给下手的金融信
贷机构. 前两个环节出的问题就很多了.
historical
the
true
【在 i*******e 的大作中提到】
: Well said, it appears to me(I don't know much about this crisis). It seems
: some people claim, the pricing models of financial firms take the historical
: path/data as given (partial equilibrium model?), but fails to recognize the
: effect of their collective behavior on such "historical path". Is that true
: or a valid argument?
:
: early
: american
: were
: borrowers.
|
|
