m******l
发帖数: 33 | 1 Many people without econ training also visit this website and propose their
views on the current crisis.
It's true that economists should listen to others' view. But sometimes there
are just way many people trying to help economists and most of their ideas
make no sense at all. We shouldn't say the ideas are all wrong but
economists don't have energy to deal with those millions of "potentially
interesting" ideas. Then they just blame economists.
The similar scenario is what happened in China af |
e****c
发帖数: 183 | 2 Makes sense.
On the other hand, there is no need to be upset, since the market for ideas
should clear in the end. Or does it fail (too)? Or maybe your agony and
noneconomists' agony are part of the path toward market clearance. So please
be upset, but realize at the same time that this is all natural. :) |
i*******e
发帖数: 349 | 3 I agree. Among a million opinions of non-economists, there must be some very
good ones. However, I would not have the time to go through all of them to
find some gems. It's easier to read works of economists or researchers with
solid record in related fields (stat, math, sociology, psychology etc.) to
get new ideas.
Even within the circle of economists, we don't read every working paper out
there, do we? We often judge ex ante the quality of work by looking into
authors' track record and update |
d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 4 Economists should not feel upset as this "upset or not" has never been
modeled in economics before. Most likely, it does not exist.:-)
Non-economists' opinion should be respected as those opinions are still
rational based on all the information they have, at least that's what
economics models have been telling us for a while.
Even if non-economists' opinion might not be right due to lack of
information, they still might be counted as difference of opinion. Suppose
if you give them the same infor |
e***t
发帖数: 14386 | 5 economists are experts on economic THEORY mostly.
Regarding the real-life economics, economists' opinions are no better than
others. Remember most "non-economists" have their own jobs and careers,
usually much more related to and affected by the real world than the
economists, or I should say economics phd and fresh ap in the university.
very
to
with
out
.
【在 i*******e 的大作中提到】
: I agree. Among a million opinions of non-economists, there must be some very
: good ones. However, I would not have the time to go through all of them to
: find some gems. It's easier to read works of economists or researchers with
: solid record in related fields (stat, math, sociology, psychology etc.) to
: get new ideas.
: Even within the circle of economists, we don't read every working paper out
: there, do we? We often judge ex ante the quality of work by looking into
: authors' track record and update
|
i*******e
发帖数: 349 | 6 First, according to Mankiw's survey economists do agree on some important
issues: http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/02/news-flash-economists-agree.html
Second, why people including economists continue to disagree on many issues?
One explanation is provided by Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukov, and
Muhamet Yildiz:
http://econ-www.mit.edu/files/3795
They show difference in priors (or initial opinions) may persist even if
everyone observes the same world.
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: Economists should not feel upset as this "upset or not" has never been
: modeled in economics before. Most likely, it does not exist.:-)
: Non-economists' opinion should be respected as those opinions are still
: rational based on all the information they have, at least that's what
: economics models have been telling us for a while.
: Even if non-economists' opinion might not be right due to lack of
: information, they still might be counted as difference of opinion. Suppose
: if you give them the same infor
|
t*******s
发帖数: 492 | 7 i think Obama and McCain should be banned from talking about economy,
because they don't have econ phd. haha... |
i*******e
发帖数: 349 | 8 Sure I don't deny non-economists can have good points about the economy, and
I do enjoy chatting with average people about that. As a matter of fact, I had
been working for three years and had experience in import and marketing. My
previous boss is very sharp and very street smart. Theoretical models are
too simplified to mean much in firms' decision making, and theorems are just
like metaphors. Instead of going to books for a model, every manager's brain
functions as a complex model of very hig
【在 e***t 的大作中提到】
: economists are experts on economic THEORY mostly.
: Regarding the real-life economics, economists' opinions are no better than
: others. Remember most "non-economists" have their own jobs and careers,
: usually much more related to and affected by the real world than the
: economists, or I should say economics phd and fresh ap in the university.
:
: very
: to
: with
: out
|
s*******t
发帖数: 1743 | 9 是
经济学家克鲁格曼先生在两次撰文论述08年中期油价没有泡沫的时候
一堆人不服气，坚持说有投机和炒作，在那里叫嚣个没完没了，在纽约时报网站留言好多好多页
结果克鲁格曼先生年底就拿了诺奖
给了那些民科一个响亮的耳光
their
there
ideas
was
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: Many people without econ training also visit this website and propose their
: views on the current crisis.
: It's true that economists should listen to others' view. But sometimes there
: are just way many people trying to help economists and most of their ideas
: make no sense at all. We shouldn't say the ideas are all wrong but
: economists don't have energy to deal with those millions of "potentially
: interesting" ideas. Then they just blame economists.
: The similar scenario is what happened in China af
|
z*****r
发帖数: 967 | 10 I think you misinterpreted the situation by overestimating your self-importance.
It is really fine that economists don't pay attention to laymen's opinions.
What makes people somewhat frustrated is some econ phds' the bigotry and
arrogance. They assume only they can think logically. Well, we really don't
care about your career, your publication or whether our views are accepted
by you. We merely hope that if you want to communicate in the bbs, just show
some basic manners. If you have reasoning
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: Many people without econ training also visit this website and propose their
: views on the current crisis.
: It's true that economists should listen to others' view. But sometimes there
: are just way many people trying to help economists and most of their ideas
: make no sense at all. We shouldn't say the ideas are all wrong but
: economists don't have energy to deal with those millions of "potentially
: interesting" ideas. Then they just blame economists.
: The similar scenario is what happened in China af
|
|
|
w*****n
发帖数: 2693 | 11 看来真正的牛人出手了
赶紧从专业角度给大家讲讲这次危机吧
免得那些外行整天唧唧歪歪的
现在就是缺你这样一言九鼎的人，才这么乱的
their
there
ideas
was
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: Many people without econ training also visit this website and propose their
: views on the current crisis.
: It's true that economists should listen to others' view. But sometimes there
: are just way many people trying to help economists and most of their ideas
: make no sense at all. We shouldn't say the ideas are all wrong but
: economists don't have energy to deal with those millions of "potentially
: interesting" ideas. Then they just blame economists.
: The similar scenario is what happened in China af
|
b********y
发帖数: 63 | 12 The first advice from my economics professor is that if you cannot explain
your doctoral thesis in a layman's language to your grandma in half an hour,
you better go back and re-think what you are doing.
The economists themselves cannot agree on some major issues, how can you
expect the laymen to agree? You have to convince yourselves that you are
doing the right thing in order NOT to be upset.
Talking about economy should not be the privilege of economists. |
b*******8
发帖数: 20 | 13 我觉得他跟你说的不矛盾。
当经济学家有idea的时候他会去验证。比如想模型人在不确定下的decision,跟layman
谈谈，看他们是否能理解你想要干的。很多经济学家甚至去做survey等等验证他们的研
究。他们通过与layman谈得到他们想要的信息。
但当layman有idea的时候跟经济学家谈，就是反方向的了。因为你丝毫不知道layman会
给你什么样的信息。很多时候只是违反了经济学的一些基本principle.
经济学家之间的确有很多分歧，但他们在很多principle上是一致的。比如incentive,
比如competition。只用这些经济学家已经达成基本一致的原则就可以更正layman的很
多idea了。 个人觉得layman最容易犯的错误是总喜欢partial equilibrium下讨论问题
。说白了就是喜欢用拆东墙补西墙的办法。 比如其他帖子有人说对富人征重property
税。这样就不会因为穷人换不清贷款而产生次贷危机了。看来是个很好的结论。但收多
少合适？最后贫富差异到多少算是达到目的了? 征税太轻达不到消除贫富差距的目的。
征收重税后富人积累资本的incen
【在 b********y 的大作中提到】
: The first advice from my economics professor is that if you cannot explain
: your doctoral thesis in a layman's language to your grandma in half an hour,
: you better go back and re-think what you are doing.
: The economists themselves cannot agree on some major issues, how can you
: expect the laymen to agree? You have to convince yourselves that you are
: doing the right thing in order NOT to be upset.
: Talking about economy should not be the privilege of economists.
|
t*******s
发帖数: 492 | 14 其实民科只是做做墙头草，看几群所谓的economist互打耳光，民科在边上摇旗呐喊罢
了。haha
好多好多页
【在 s*******t 的大作中提到】
: 是
: 经济学家克鲁格曼先生在两次撰文论述08年中期油价没有泡沫的时候
: 一堆人不服气，坚持说有投机和炒作，在那里叫嚣个没完没了，在纽约时报网站留言好多好多页
: 结果克鲁格曼先生年底就拿了诺奖
: 给了那些民科一个响亮的耳光
:
: their
: there
: ideas
: was
|
s**6
发帖数: 1 | 15 I agree.
Don't you think in most of time,(especially when people are discussing hot
economic issues like crisis), non-economists' ideas are still from magzines,
news report, which are writen by economists? In this sense they don't make
much contribution to the pool of ideas.
Economists should care non-economists' ideas only when they are highly
relevant. For example, if an economist is going to do research on medical
insurance, definitely he'd communicate with doctors and patients. However,
if
【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: 其实民科只是做做墙头草，看几群所谓的economist互打耳光，民科在边上摇旗呐喊罢
: 了。haha
:
: 好多好多页
|
z*****r
发帖数: 967 | 16 1. 经济学的principles你能保证都是对的？仅仅拿最低工资是否会使失业率增加着一
条来说，据mankiw说90%以上的经济学家同意。可是即使是这样一个不具争议性的问题
在经济学里其实并没有解决。因为同时存在很多实证检验表面并没有使失业率提高（包
括最新的实证研究）。起码可以说明你所说的principles很多并不是普遍真理。要具体
问题具体分析。包括高税收会影响富人的incentive。
2，我们可以讨论多收富人多少税，但是不可否认的是现在的capital gain tax是太低
了，而不是太高了，一个人通过投资可以赚到的钱只收15%，辛辛苦苦去天天上班的中
产阶级却要收30%多，还不算social security等等
3，1/3的capital gain不算多吗？另外，很多投资收益都被reinvest了，要知道富人不
会拿了钱放床底，你是否有算这一部分？还有你算的只是流量，那么存量呢？
4，我一向很尊重经济学家，（事实上，我认为凡是人都值得尊重）
只是板上有几个不摆事实，不讲道理，喜欢给人戴帽子的
才提醒一下。说实话，我遇到过的更著名更牛x的经济学家（有中国有美国）也没有某
【在 b*******8 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得他跟你说的不矛盾。
: 当经济学家有idea的时候他会去验证。比如想模型人在不确定下的decision,跟layman
: 谈谈，看他们是否能理解你想要干的。很多经济学家甚至去做survey等等验证他们的研
: 究。他们通过与layman谈得到他们想要的信息。
: 但当layman有idea的时候跟经济学家谈，就是反方向的了。因为你丝毫不知道layman会
: 给你什么样的信息。很多时候只是违反了经济学的一些基本principle.
: 经济学家之间的确有很多分歧，但他们在很多principle上是一致的。比如incentive,
: 比如competition。只用这些经济学家已经达成基本一致的原则就可以更正layman的很
: 多idea了。 个人觉得layman最容易犯的错误是总喜欢partial equilibrium下讨论问题
: 。说白了就是喜欢用拆东墙补西墙的办法。 比如其他帖子有人说对富人征重property
|
z***n
发帖数: 30 | 17 Man, I dont know why u say "只是板上有几个不摆事实，不讲道理，喜欢给人戴帽子
的", I did not see those kinds of posts actually.
I think economics is far different from those nature sciences.
Since we can not do experiments in usual, we should focus on some factors
that we regard as important. Under such a abstract environment, it is not
strange that econ theories are so different from reality.
That's what i think why we emphasize principle badly. Those principles are
the only conclusion economists can get.
We are not eng |
b********y
发帖数: 63 | 18 I doubt you have any idea on the oil price in 2008. If the oil price shock
in 2008 was not a bubble, what else could be called a bubble? The Nobel
price was no proof to Mr. Krugman's comments on oil price.
好多好多页
【在 s*******t 的大作中提到】
: 是
: 经济学家克鲁格曼先生在两次撰文论述08年中期油价没有泡沫的时候
: 一堆人不服气，坚持说有投机和炒作，在那里叫嚣个没完没了，在纽约时报网站留言好多好多页
: 结果克鲁格曼先生年底就拿了诺奖
: 给了那些民科一个响亮的耳光
:
: their
: there
: ideas
: was
|
e***t
发帖数: 14386 | 19 他说反话呢
【在 b********y 的大作中提到】
: I doubt you have any idea on the oil price in 2008. If the oil price shock
: in 2008 was not a bubble, what else could be called a bubble? The Nobel
: price was no proof to Mr. Krugman's comments on oil price.
:
: 好多好多页
|
W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 20
their
there
ideas
was
All economists in amerika are sleeping at the switch!
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: Many people without econ training also visit this website and propose their
: views on the current crisis.
: It's true that economists should listen to others' view. But sometimes there
: are just way many people trying to help economists and most of their ideas
: make no sense at all. We shouldn't say the ideas are all wrong but
: economists don't have energy to deal with those millions of "potentially
: interesting" ideas. Then they just blame economists.
: The similar scenario is what happened in China af
|
|
|
z*******g
发帖数: 416 | 21 Well, many economists just forgot the common sense: if a cow eats 10 lb of
grass a day but too many people(house owners, lending banks,invest banks...)
milk it too much too often (sometimes before it is fully grown), it is
only a matter of time it collapses.
a good economist is one who has common sense, who has vision. those who like
to build so-called model are nothing but technicians.
their
there
ideas
was
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: Many people without econ training also visit this website and propose their
: views on the current crisis.
: It's true that economists should listen to others' view. But sometimes there
: are just way many people trying to help economists and most of their ideas
: make no sense at all. We shouldn't say the ideas are all wrong but
: economists don't have energy to deal with those millions of "potentially
: interesting" ideas. Then they just blame economists.
: The similar scenario is what happened in China af
|
o******s
发帖数: 64 | 22 真理越辩越明，互相打耳光也是能打出来research idea的。
【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: 其实民科只是做做墙头草，看几群所谓的economist互打耳光，民科在边上摇旗呐喊罢
: 了。haha
:
: 好多好多页
|
c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 23 Are you kidding?
经济学家克鲁格曼先生 is not alone. In 2005/2006, Greenspan insisted
that there was no national housing bubble. He insisted housing bubble
can be only local ones.
In 2000, when NASDAQ at 5000, many economists argued no tech bubble.
Without 投机和炒作, bubble scales would be much smaller.
好多好多页
【在 s*******t 的大作中提到】
: 是
: 经济学家克鲁格曼先生在两次撰文论述08年中期油价没有泡沫的时候
: 一堆人不服气，坚持说有投机和炒作，在那里叫嚣个没完没了，在纽约时报网站留言好多好多页
: 结果克鲁格曼先生年底就拿了诺奖
: 给了那些民科一个响亮的耳光
:
: their
: there
: ideas
: was
|
c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 24 Excessive 投机和炒作 is the twin sister of every bubble.
In middle 2007, every body believes that oil can only goes up.
Oil can not be reproduced...the oil supply is limited ...
demand from India and China will go up infinitely, blah blah blah
As results, not only hedge funds are buying oil futures, many
companies, who do not routinely buy oil futures, began long
oil. China Easten Airline is an example.
Like every Ponzi scheme, every bubble will colapse. It took
only 5 months for oil price to fall f
【在 s*******t 的大作中提到】
: 是
: 经济学家克鲁格曼先生在两次撰文论述08年中期油价没有泡沫的时候
: 一堆人不服气，坚持说有投机和炒作，在那里叫嚣个没完没了，在纽约时报网站留言好多好多页
: 结果克鲁格曼先生年底就拿了诺奖
: 给了那些民科一个响亮的耳光
:
: their
: there
: ideas
: was
|
