m*********e
发帖数: 121 | 1 In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times
the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income
will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and
also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average
Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average
Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country
in 2040. Although it will not have overtaken the Un | U*****e
发帖数: 2882 | 2 呵呵。就现在的经济学模型，超过20年的预测有多大准头？
times
income
and
country
40
hegemony
【在 m*********e 的大作中提到】
: In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times
: the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income
: will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and
: also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average
: Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average
: Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country
: in 2040. Although it will not have overtaken the Un
| m*********e
发帖数: 121 | 3 他的估计确实挺乐观。不过他用了什么fancy model 吗？也就是说说人口增长问题吧，
还有就是中国服务业的增长被严重低估。
【在 U*****e 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵。就现在的经济学模型，超过20年的预测有多大准头？
:
: times
: income
: and
: country
: 40
: hegemony
|
|
