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o******d
发帖数: 743 | 1 现在说起中国政府债务，英文媒体一般都是引用下面这个政治学家，似乎还没有见到哪
个经济学家在搞这方面研究。据我所知此人的数量能力极其一般，但因为没有别人做同
样研究，大家也只好听他的。请问有经济学家在做这方面的计算吗？
Combined with central government debt and other liabilities such as bad
bank loans, analysts estimate China’s overall explicit debt load is about
70 per cent of gross domestic product.
But some analysts believe the contingent liabilities of the government
are much higher, once debts on the books of state-owned enterprises and
other entities implicitly backed by the state are included.
“If you take a very broad view of the Chinese government’s contingent
liabilities rather than explicit debt on the books then the number comes to
well over 150 per cent of China’s GDP in 2010,” according to Victor Shih,
a political economist at Northwestern University in the US. The US has a
debt-to-GDP ratio of 93 per cent, while Japan’s ratio is over 225 per cent.
文章来自financial times. | k****h
发帖数: 944 | 2
bad
contingent
“The US has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 93 per cent”, 这是 federal government的
负债吧，加上state and local的，因该是over 113 per cent
【在 o******d 的大作中提到】
: 现在说起中国政府债务，英文媒体一般都是引用下面这个政治学家，似乎还没有见到哪
: 个经济学家在搞这方面研究。据我所知此人的数量能力极其一般，但因为没有别人做同
: 样研究，大家也只好听他的。请问有经济学家在做这方面的计算吗？
: Combined with central government debt and other liabilities such as bad
: bank loans, analysts estimate China’s overall explicit debt load is about
: 70 per cent of gross domestic product.
: But some analysts believe the contingent liabilities of the government
: are much higher, once debts on the books of state-owned enterprises and
: other entities implicitly backed by the state are included.
: “If you take a very broad view of the Chinese government’s contingent
| k****h
发帖数: 944 | 3 The part unknown is sub-national debt, which were issued as off-budget
through state-owned/controlled investment corporation.
It does not require very advanced econometric skills to dig out those off-
budget debt and add them up. It takes time and effect, but not advanced
econometric skills.
bad
contingent
【在 o******d 的大作中提到】
: 现在说起中国政府债务，英文媒体一般都是引用下面这个政治学家，似乎还没有见到哪
: 个经济学家在搞这方面研究。据我所知此人的数量能力极其一般，但因为没有别人做同
: 样研究，大家也只好听他的。请问有经济学家在做这方面的计算吗？
: Combined with central government debt and other liabilities such as bad
: bank loans, analysts estimate China’s overall explicit debt load is about
: 70 per cent of gross domestic product.
: But some analysts believe the contingent liabilities of the government
: are much higher, once debts on the books of state-owned enterprises and
: other entities implicitly backed by the state are included.
: “If you take a very broad view of the Chinese government’s contingent
| h*******l
发帖数: 359 | 4 华尔街上关于地方融资平台具体的数字，都是银行分析员在看，做这个关键是对银行的
情况要熟悉，有名的像高盛的Ma Ning，美林的Wnnie Wu，去年到现在都写了好多了。
Victor Shih讲的一看就是胡说八道，不过也没人听他的。
bad
contingent
【在 o******d 的大作中提到】
: 现在说起中国政府债务，英文媒体一般都是引用下面这个政治学家，似乎还没有见到哪
: 个经济学家在搞这方面研究。据我所知此人的数量能力极其一般，但因为没有别人做同
: 样研究，大家也只好听他的。请问有经济学家在做这方面的计算吗？
: Combined with central government debt and other liabilities such as bad
: bank loans, analysts estimate China’s overall explicit debt load is about
: 70 per cent of gross domestic product.
: But some analysts believe the contingent liabilities of the government
: are much higher, once debts on the books of state-owned enterprises and
: other entities implicitly backed by the state are included.
: “If you take a very broad view of the Chinese government’s contingent
| G******7
发帖数: 55 | |
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