g**********y
发帖数: 14569 | 1 版上大拿们见多识广，怎么看lulumelon这个公司？长期股票有戏不？能不能做到
athleisure的VS? |
g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 2 i have a long history with LULU. They came IPO in '07 in a terrible retail/
consumer tape, and underwriter was GS. It was the hottest stock as they put
up 20%+ SSS when everyone else was doing negative SSS. It had a cult
following mostly in the yoga space.
i was a non-believer, but my (ex) firm was the biggest shareholder. I
remember I had this constant debate with my colleagues. Basically no
retailer in history was able to sustain their sales/sqft (over $1300) for
very long. For reference, the average mall retailer does $400. The last one
who sustained $1000+ was Chico's, which was a 100 bagger at one time but
crashed from $50 to $2 eventually.
So I thought history is on my side and I shorted the stock on and off -- I
felt 6x EV/sales was way too high and they are over-earning at 25% op margin
. I was actually was able to make some modest money, as they ran into a
couple of periods of high inventory/product issues. It was a hard experience
though -- I had to sit through a sizable loss, and borrow was very high --
there was one time that short interest was so high that there was no borrow
and I had to short calls (pretty risky, i have never done it before and
probably won't do it since).
Then last year, when it plunged below $40, I got interested from the long
side (I last covered at $50), as valuation started to make some sense and
many analysts were capitulating. And there was one trigger for me. My mother
loves hiking and she wanted to buy a pair of LULU training pants. Now my
mother is maybe the most frugal person in the world, and the fact she is
willing to pay UP for LULU completely blew my mind.
In the end, I didn't buy (wasn't quite cheap enough for me). the stock
obviously had a big rally since, and investors are buying into the story
again. In short, they are betting that LULU will become UA/NKE and VS of
athleisure. They definitely have the brand/cache, although competition is
also quite fierce. Success attracts competition. Again, I will point to
Chico's, whose wild success attracted a myriad of copycats, which ultimately
doomed the chain.
I wouldn't make that bet myself, but I wouldn't bet against it necessarily
either. in the too hard pile for me.
【在 g**********y 的大作中提到】
: 版上大拿们见多识广，怎么看lulumelon这个公司？长期股票有戏不？能不能做到
: athleisure的VS?
|
g**********y
发帖数: 14569 | 3 Wow，开眼界了，包子谢长文分析加信息。我没有时间去特别紧跟和分析，完全是凭直
觉。现代人的生活水平在提高，以前Walmart就可以满足的人群，逐渐会觉得Walmart过
于cheap, 他们会觉得Costco会好那么一点点。女人对时尚和身材拥有永不疲倦的追求
，所以直觉LULU会有自己的市场。当然最难的是，一旦开辟出一块特别profitable的市
场，门槛本身又不高的话，很容易招来疯狂的复制和竞争。
奇怪的是：VS感觉门槛也不高，为什么这么多年来能够在内衣市场上这么霸气地垄断呢？
put
one
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】
: i have a long history with LULU. They came IPO in '07 in a terrible retail/
: consumer tape, and underwriter was GS. It was the hottest stock as they put
: up 20%+ SSS when everyone else was doing negative SSS. It had a cult
: following mostly in the yoga space.
: i was a non-believer, but my (ex) firm was the biggest shareholder. I
: remember I had this constant debate with my colleagues. Basically no
: retailer in history was able to sustain their sales/sqft (over $1300) for
: very long. For reference, the average mall retailer does $400. The last one
: who sustained $1000+ was Chico's, which was a 100 bagger at one time but
: crashed from $50 to $2 eventually.
|
n***i
发帖数: 4627 | 4 你说的这部分已经price in了。。。长线没啥搞头，要做就是看看有没有波段能吃
呢？
【在 g**********y 的大作中提到】
: Wow，开眼界了，包子谢长文分析加信息。我没有时间去特别紧跟和分析，完全是凭直
: 觉。现代人的生活水平在提高，以前Walmart就可以满足的人群，逐渐会觉得Walmart过
: 于cheap, 他们会觉得Costco会好那么一点点。女人对时尚和身材拥有永不疲倦的追求
: ，所以直觉LULU会有自己的市场。当然最难的是，一旦开辟出一块特别profitable的市
: 场，门槛本身又不高的话，很容易招来疯狂的复制和竞争。
: 奇怪的是：VS感觉门槛也不高，为什么这么多年来能够在内衣市场上这么霸气地垄断呢？
:
: put
: one
|
g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 5 re VS, bras/undies are extremely hard to get right with respect to fit. It
is more SKU intensive and logistics are very hard. VS may be known for
marketing/models, but the barrier to entry is considerably higher than the
average apparel chain. So many players have tried to enter the space over
the years and most failed.
呢？
【在 g**********y 的大作中提到】
: Wow，开眼界了，包子谢长文分析加信息。我没有时间去特别紧跟和分析，完全是凭直
: 觉。现代人的生活水平在提高，以前Walmart就可以满足的人群，逐渐会觉得Walmart过
: 于cheap, 他们会觉得Costco会好那么一点点。女人对时尚和身材拥有永不疲倦的追求
: ，所以直觉LULU会有自己的市场。当然最难的是，一旦开辟出一块特别profitable的市
: 场，门槛本身又不高的话，很容易招来疯狂的复制和竞争。
: 奇怪的是：VS感觉门槛也不高，为什么这么多年来能够在内衣市场上这么霸气地垄断呢？
:
: put
: one
|
g**********y
发帖数: 14569 | 6 长线什么有搞头？
【在 n***i 的大作中提到】
: 你说的这部分已经price in了。。。长线没啥搞头，要做就是看看有没有波段能吃
:
: 呢？
|
g**********y
发帖数: 14569 | 7 Under Armor怎么这么火呢？我去他家，没感觉有什么特色
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】
: re VS, bras/undies are extremely hard to get right with respect to fit. It
: is more SKU intensive and logistics are very hard. VS may be known for
: marketing/models, but the barrier to entry is considerably higher than the
: average apparel chain. So many players have tried to enter the space over
: the years and most failed.
:
: 呢？
|
s*****o
发帖数: 22187 | 8 佩服佩服！
put
one
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】
: i have a long history with LULU. They came IPO in '07 in a terrible retail/
: consumer tape, and underwriter was GS. It was the hottest stock as they put
: up 20%+ SSS when everyone else was doing negative SSS. It had a cult
: following mostly in the yoga space.
: i was a non-believer, but my (ex) firm was the biggest shareholder. I
: remember I had this constant debate with my colleagues. Basically no
: retailer in history was able to sustain their sales/sqft (over $1300) for
: very long. For reference, the average mall retailer does $400. The last one
: who sustained $1000+ was Chico's, which was a 100 bagger at one time but
: crashed from $50 to $2 eventually.
|
J***o
发帖数: 7166 | 9 "女人对时尚和身材拥有永不疲倦的追求" 大赞
呢？
【在 g**********y 的大作中提到】
: Wow，开眼界了，包子谢长文分析加信息。我没有时间去特别紧跟和分析，完全是凭直
: 觉。现代人的生活水平在提高，以前Walmart就可以满足的人群，逐渐会觉得Walmart过
: 于cheap, 他们会觉得Costco会好那么一点点。女人对时尚和身材拥有永不疲倦的追求
: ，所以直觉LULU会有自己的市场。当然最难的是，一旦开辟出一块特别profitable的市
: 场，门槛本身又不高的话，很容易招来疯狂的复制和竞争。
: 奇怪的是：VS感觉门槛也不高，为什么这么多年来能够在内衣市场上这么霸气地垄断呢？
:
: put
: one
|
J***o
发帖数: 7166 | 10 太经典了！
许多lingerie只能想办法“做出”特色 譬如la perla做高端 elomi做大尺寸等等
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】
: re VS, bras/undies are extremely hard to get right with respect to fit. It
: is more SKU intensive and logistics are very hard. VS may be known for
: marketing/models, but the barrier to entry is considerably higher than the
: average apparel chain. So many players have tried to enter the space over
: the years and most failed.
:
: 呢？
|
s********k
发帖数: 6180 | 11 这是炒股票还是准备跳槽？
【在 g**********y 的大作中提到】
: 版上大拿们见多识广，怎么看lulumelon这个公司？长期股票有戏不？能不能做到
: athleisure的VS?
|
g**********y
发帖数: 14569 | 12 当然炒股了，我不管去设计衣服还是卖衣服，人家都不要啊。在不敢跳之际，就看着这
只股票不停地涨。。。哪天跳了就跌，想想还是不跳了
【在 s********k 的大作中提到】
: 这是炒股票还是准备跳槽？
|
