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发帖数: 518 | 1 http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/about
2019年10月18日纽约有一场由约翰霍普金斯健康安全中心、世界经济论坛、比尔与梅琳
达盖兹基金会联合举办的一场特殊研讨会：《项目201——一全球流行疾病演习》（
Event 201—a global pandemic exercise：
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/about），
15名来自商业、政府、公共健康领域的菁英对一虚拟流行疾病的爆发作出桌面推演。
中国疾控中心主任高福（George F. Gao）即是其中唯一的黃面孔。（http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/players/gao.html）
2020年1月17日该活动发布新闻：
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/newsroom/center-news/2020-01-17-Event201-recommendations.html
January 17, 2020 - The next severe pandemic will not only cause great
illness and loss of life but could also trigger major cascading economic and
societal consequences that could contribute greatly to global impact and
suffering. Efforts to prevent such consequences or respond to them as they
unfold will require unprecedented levels of collaboration between
governments, international organizations, and the private sector.
The Event 201 pandemic exercise, conducted on October 18, 2019 co-hosted by
the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill
& Melinda Gates Foundation, vividly demonstrated a number of these
important gaps in pandemic preparedness as well as some of the elements of
the solutions between the public and private sectors that will be needed to
fill them.
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill
& Melinda Gates Foundation jointly propose the following:
Governments, international organizations, and businesses should plan now
for how essential corporate capabilities will be utilized during a large-
scale pandemic.
Industry, national governments, and international organizations should
work together to enhance internationally held stockpiles of medical
countermeasures (MCMs) to enable rapid and equitable distribution during a
severe pandemic.
Countries, international organizations, and global transportation
companies should work together to maintain travel and trade during severe
pandemics.
Governments should provide more resources and support for the
development and surge manufacturing of vaccines, therapeutics, and
diagnostics that will be needed during a severe pandemic.
Global business should recognize the economic burden of pandemics and
fight for stronger preparedness.
International organizations should prioritize reducing economic impacts
of epidemics and pandemics.
Governments and the private sector should assign a greater priority to
developing methods to combat mis- and disinformation prior to the next
pandemic response. | s******n
发帖数: 518 | 2 剧本：
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html
The Event 201 scenario
Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted
from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently
transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The
pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is
more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.
The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil, quietly and slowly at first, but
then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings. When it starts
to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income, densely
packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America, the
epidemic explodes. It is first exported by air travel to Portugal, the
United States, and China and then to many other countries. Although at first
some countries are able to control it, it continues to spread and be
reintroduced, and eventually no country can maintain control.
There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year.
There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not
significantly limit spread of the disease.
Since the whole human population is susceptible, during the initial months
of the pandemic, the cumulative number of cases increases exponentially,
doubling every week. And as the cases and deaths accumulate, the economic
and societal consequences become increasingly severe.
The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The
pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible
people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective
vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From
that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.
Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security logo
World Economic Forum logo
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation logo
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发帖数: 518 | 3 当时的推演剧本和现在正在武汉和中国发生的差不多。
剧本大略翻译如下:
从一个贫穷人口密集的地区，一个新冠状病毒出现了，首先从蝙蝠，到猪，再到人，传
递起来，并逐渐传遍世界。第一年里根本没有有效解药，有的药有点帮助但是无法防止
传播。一年半之后，6千5百万人死亡，传播终于下降，那是因为可感人群减少了。 |
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