C**N
发帖数: 27 | 1 Family-Based Preference Categories
The across the board advancement to “current” of the F-2A category is
perhaps the most noteworthy update on the family-based side of the July 2019
Visa Bulletin. This advancement is attributable to a failure of applicants
to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letters. Interestingly, although the
Final Action Date for this category is current, the Date for Filing is March
8, 2019. This was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to
consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final
Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but
is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal
year (FY2019).
Movements in the Final Action Dates are often made slowly and carefully for
some time in order to test demand before making any dramatic movements. To
better understand why these movements are made, Charlie provides a “Party
Invitation Analogy.” Moving the Final Action Date is like planning for a
party. You may prepare a certain amount of food for your guests. However,
when only a few people respond that they are coming to the party, you keep
inviting more and more guests. Then, at the last minute, everyone you
invited decides to attend the party and you don’t have enough food for
everyone. That is analogous to a gradual and then rapid advancement in Final
Action Dates followed by a flood of demand that requires a retrogression.
This is what Charlie believes could potentially happen at some point after
making this category current.
Employment-Based Preference Categories
General Trends and Observations:
In the July 2019 Visa Bulletin, Charlie modifies previous projections for EB
-1, EB-2 and EB-3 Worldwide, based on new data received from USCIS. This
data reflects a rapid increase in actual demand across these categories that
has materialized over the past 2.5 weeks, and projections of continued
higher levels of demand during the summer than had been experienced through
mid-May.
EB-1:
The Final Action Date for EB-1 Worldwide (including EB-1 El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, EB-1 Mexico, EB-1 Philippines, and EB-1 Vietnam)
remains the same at April 22, 2018. Furthermore, Charlie predicts that there
will be retrogression in this category as early as August 2019. If demand
trends allow, the goal is that the Final Action Date in this category will
return to the current level (i.e., April 22, 2018) in October 2019.
The Final Action Date for EB-1 India remains the same at January 1, 2015. No
further forward movement will occur in this category during FY2019. If
possible, Charlie’s goal is for EB-1 India to return to a Final Action Date
of February 22, 2017 in October 2019.
EB-1 China will advance approximately two months to May 8, 2017 in July. No
additional forward movement is expected in this category for the remainder
of FY2019. This preference may also become subject to the corrective action
that Charlie mentions above for EB-1 Worldwide. The reason why EB-1 China
was able to advance in July is that, unlike India, China has otherwise
unused numbers in the EB-4 category that “fall up” to EB-1 to allow
additional number usage. In contrast, there is sufficient EB-4 India number
usage which restricts the ability to have unused numbers “fall up” to EB-1
India.
Charlie expects that going forward EB-1 Worldwide, EB-1 China, and EB-1
India will have distinct Final Action Dates. He also expects that the Final
Action Dates for EB-1 China and EB-1 India will differ, with both lagging
behind the Final Action Date for EB-1 Worldwide.
EB-2:
The week prior to Memorial Day, Charlie started receiving a different demand
pattern from USCIS than what he had received in recent months. During this
time, the demand in the employment-based categories began to pick up, with
the daily totals increasing quickly. For example, through May 21, 2019,
approximately 1,800 visa numbers were used in the EB-2 category, and between
May 22, 2019 and May 31, 2019, another 1,300 numbers were used. The June
2019 pace of demand continues to be higher than earlier in FY2019. This is
in combination with USCIS’s projected high summer usage.
Based on this data, whereas Charlie previously believed EB-2 Worldwide might
remain current through FY2019, this no longer remains the case. Charlie now
anticipates that this category will have a Final Action Date imposed during
FY19, and possibly as early as August 2019. At this time, he is unable to
predict how far back the date imposed might be. As Charlie knows how many
numbers remain available and how many USCIS predicts will materialize, he
will continue to watch the demand in this category very closely. While it is
possible that the Final Action Date for EB-2 Worldwide will hold in August
2019 and be limited to September 2019, AILA members are cautioned to file
any current cases through the month of July 2019, as it is unclear whether
these priority dates will still be current in August 2019. Charlie’s goal
is, if possible, to return the Final Action Date for this category to
current in October 2019
In July, EB-2 China advances three months to November 1, 2016. Charlie
predicts that this category may share a Final Action Date with the EB-2
Worldwide category, if corrective action is required for EB-2 Worldwide in
August 2019.
EB-2 India advances 5 days to April 24, 2009 in July. Charlie predicts that
this category will continue to advance at a pace of up to one week until the
limit is reached.
EB-3:
As with EB-2, Charlie is starting to see heavy demand in the EB-3 category,
in addition to USCIS projections for additional demand. This demand is
causing similar changes in the projections for this category.
Whereas Charlie had been predicting that EB-3 Worldwide (including EB-3 El
Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras and EB-3 Mexico) seemed likely to remain
current through FY2019, that is no longer the case. Charlie has now modified
his prediction and expects retrogression at some point during this fiscal
year, perhaps as early as August 2019.
EB-3 China advances 3.5 months to January 1, 2016 in July, and EB-3 China
Other Workers advances about two months to November 22, 2007. Charlie
continues to predict advancement of up to several months for the EB-3
category.
The Final Action Date for EB-3 India continues to hold at July 1, 2009, with
little if any forward movement predicted in the immediate future. Last year
, action on all of the pre-adjudicated EB-3 India numbers from the 2007
Adjustment of Status filings were finalized. Charlie’s only visibility to
the demand in this category comes from new filings, which are coming in at a
steady pace. Part of the reason that this category was allowed to advance
is that Charlie assumed that the rest of the world numbers would not be used
, as had been the case for the past five fiscal years. However, this year
there are no extra EB-3 numbers available from other countries to transfer
to EB-3 India.Therefore, in order to limit future use of numbers, any
required corrective action for EB-3 Worldwide will also impact the Final
Action Date for EB-3 India.
As recently predicted, EB-3 Philippines will become current in July 2019,
advancing from the June 2019 Final Action Date of November 1, 2018. However,
Charlie expects this category to reflect the EB-3 Worldwide date, meaning
that there may be a short window for applicants to file between now and the
end of July 2019, when the Final Action Date for EB-3 Worldwide may
retrogress.
EB-4:
As noted in the last column, EB-4 will remain current in July 2019 for most
countries, with the exception of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras and
Mexico, which advance to July 1, 2016 in July, due to the use of otherwise
unused numbers from other countries. These countries should hold at this
Final Action Date through FY2019.
Demand for EB-4 India numbers has dropped off and the pace of usage has
slowed. It still appears likely that this category will remain current
during FY2019.
EB-5:
In July 2019, a Final Action Date of May 1, 2017 is imposed for EB-5 India,
which had until now been current. Charlie expects EB-5 India to continue to
be subject to a Final Action Date moving forward. The EB-5 China Final
Action date will hold at October 1, 2014, and EB-5 Vietnam will hold at a
Final Action Date of October 1, 2016. All other countries remain current for
this category. In August and September 2019, EB-5 India and EB-5 Vietnam
are expected reflect the same Final Action Date as EB-5 China.
来源：https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/ | a*******t
发帖数: 1356 | 2 能说脏话吗，不能的话就没话可说了
2019
applicants
March
but
【在 C**N 的大作中提到】
: Family-Based Preference Categories
: The across the board advancement to “current” of the F-2A category is
: perhaps the most noteworthy update on the family-based side of the July 2019
: Visa Bulletin. This advancement is attributable to a failure of applicants
: to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letters. Interestingly, although the
: Final Action Date for this category is current, the Date for Filing is March
: 8, 2019. This was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to
: consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final
: Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but
: is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal
| a**********y
发帖数: 233 | 3 真后悔搞eb1
eb2 和row同final date
我真是哭啊
真是一步错步步错
2019
applicants
March
but
【在 C**N 的大作中提到】
: Family-Based Preference Categories
: The across the board advancement to “current” of the F-2A category is
: perhaps the most noteworthy update on the family-based side of the July 2019
: Visa Bulletin. This advancement is attributable to a failure of applicants
: to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letters. Interestingly, although the
: Final Action Date for this category is current, the Date for Filing is March
: 8, 2019. This was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to
: consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final
: Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but
: is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal
| r*x
发帖数: 411 | 4 是指ROW的EB2排期倒退时share相同的FAD
【在 a**********y 的大作中提到】
: 真后悔搞eb1
: eb2 和row同final date
: 我真是哭啊
: 真是一步错步步错
:
: 2019
: applicants
: March
: but
| a**********y
发帖数: 233 | 5 花大半年准备材料
还不如perm
命不好
ead都被分配到nbc，那个shithole
【在 a**********y 的大作中提到】
: 真后悔搞eb1
: eb2 和row同final date
: 我真是哭啊
: 真是一步错步步错
:
: 2019
: applicants
: March
: but
| p******o
发帖数: 147 | 6 感觉EB2 China还能继续前进？没说demand增加，而且EB2 ROW能一下退到2016 NOV？会
不会一起到2017 JAN？ | r*x
发帖数: 411 | 7 去年九月EB2 ROW退到了13年
【在 p******o 的大作中提到】
: 感觉EB2 China还能继续前进？没说demand增加，而且EB2 ROW能一下退到2016 NOV？会
: 不会一起到2017 JAN？
| a********6
发帖数: 22 | | m*******1
发帖数: 3 | 9
有没有可能是一起退回史前？发生这种情况的概率恐怕是更大
【在 p******o 的大作中提到】
: 感觉EB2 China还能继续前进？没说demand增加，而且EB2 ROW能一下退到2016 NOV？会
: 不会一起到2017 JAN？
| r*x
发帖数: 411 | 10 在文章最下方
【在 a********6 的大作中提到】
: source??
| | | i******w
发帖数: 1 | 11 EB1朋友们，别担心啦。EB2退起来可能是6年起退，奥本这么说，其实只是说EB2退的日
期很有可能在EB2C之前，所以干脆大家一起退起来。EB1能稳定前进还是很好的。只不
过从此和EB1三 解绑了，我们很难吃到SO, 除非世界再突然恢复到current | r*x
发帖数: 411 | 12 EB1还是吃到SO了，不过是中国自己EB4的SO....
EB1朋友们，别担心啦。EB2退起来可能是6年起退，奥本这么说，其实只是说EB2退的日
期很有可能在EB2C之前，所以干脆大家一起退起来。EB1能稳定前进还是很好的。只不
过从此和EB1三 解绑了，我们很难吃到SO, 除非世界再突然恢复到current
【在 i******w 的大作中提到】
: EB1朋友们，别担心啦。EB2退起来可能是6年起退，奥本这么说，其实只是说EB2退的日
: 期很有可能在EB2C之前，所以干脆大家一起退起来。EB1能稳定前进还是很好的。只不
: 过从此和EB1三 解绑了，我们很难吃到SO, 除非世界再突然恢复到current
| i******w
发帖数: 1 | 13 所以咱们中国的EB1，还有机会回到C么。。。
【在 r*x 的大作中提到】
: EB1还是吃到SO了，不过是中国自己EB4的SO....
:
: EB1朋友们，别担心啦。EB2退起来可能是6年起退，奥本这么说，其实只是说EB2退的日
: 期很有可能在EB2C之前，所以干脆大家一起退起来。EB1能稳定前进还是很好的。只不
: 过从此和EB1三 解绑了，我们很难吃到SO, 除非世界再突然恢复到current
| F****P
发帖数: 2049 | 14 两三年内没戏
【在 i******w 的大作中提到】
: 所以咱们中国的EB1，还有机会回到C么。。。
| H********t
发帖数: 4 | 15 我有一个特别阴险的猜想 三哥是不是也跟中美洲偷渡客一样开始搞EB4 SIJ了？
还有就是全世界都不够用了 隔壁eb23版还在吵那个提高国别上限的事情 岂不是万一万
一万一真的通过了 ROW eb23也要排三年起了 一起向F类看齐
2019
applicants
March
but
【在 C**N 的大作中提到】
: Family-Based Preference Categories
: The across the board advancement to “current” of the F-2A category is
: perhaps the most noteworthy update on the family-based side of the July 2019
: Visa Bulletin. This advancement is attributable to a failure of applicants
: to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letters. Interestingly, although the
: Final Action Date for this category is current, the Date for Filing is March
: 8, 2019. This was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to
: consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final
: Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but
: is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal
| H********t
发帖数: 4 | 16 别再试图重新发明轮子了好么 就算只想清完去年四月前的库存 三年内基本也不可能
【在 i******w 的大作中提到】
: 所以咱们中国的EB1，还有机会回到C么。。。
| x**a
发帖数: 1 | 17 全世界只有中国有unused eb4吗？
ROW吃不到他们自己国家的unused eb4？？？
2019
applicants
March
but
【在 C**N 的大作中提到】
: Family-Based Preference Categories
: The across the board advancement to “current” of the F-2A category is
: perhaps the most noteworthy update on the family-based side of the July 2019
: Visa Bulletin. This advancement is attributable to a failure of applicants
: to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letters. Interestingly, although the
: Final Action Date for this category is current, the Date for Filing is March
: 8, 2019. This was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to
: consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final
: Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but
: is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal
| a**********y
发帖数: 233 | 18 row是最无解的
几万的名额还是不够用
他们应该还有eb5和eb4用
这十几万大军到底是谁啊
【在 x**a 的大作中提到】
: 全世界只有中国有unused eb4吗？
: ROW吃不到他们自己国家的unused eb4？？？
:
: 2019
: applicants
: March
: but
| H********t
发帖数: 4 | 19 ROW都有 往年EB1能吃到EB4剩下来的巨大一部分SO 后来被中美洲难民abuse得EB4 SO越
来越少了
EB1 ROW的话其实也就只有那么几个国家超了一年两千八 看再早几年数据的话也就是英
国韩国加拿大澳大利亚之类的 它们自己如果有EB4 SO的话应该也是能吃的
不过你这么一说 突然想到了另外一个问题 好多袖珍国 举例比如梵蒂冈 无论如何每年
EB1也不可能用满2800 那么他们按理说是不是不应该被EB1排期的？那为什么他们也要
排？
说到底还是USCIS有病
【在 x**a 的大作中提到】
: 全世界只有中国有unused eb4吗？
: ROW吃不到他们自己国家的unused eb4？？？
:
: 2019
: applicants
: March
: but
| i******w
发帖数: 1 | 20 大哥。我没乱重新发明轮子。。。我只是想知道，为啥EB1就不能C了。。而且全世界一
起来不C...这个说不过去的。。
【在 H********t 的大作中提到】
: 别再试图重新发明轮子了好么 就算只想清完去年四月前的库存 三年内基本也不可能
| | | p*********h
发帖数: 16 | | x**a
发帖数: 1 | 22 我觉得是uscis/dos没有办法把所有国家都像中印一样单挑出来，比如除中印以外A,B,C
三国今年都过了2800, D,E,F没过，如果FAD前进，按现在的系统，没有理由只给DEF批
不给不给ABC批卡，所以现在还是很有可能，DEF用不完的都给了烙印(现在唯一的MRC)
。。。
【在 H********t 的大作中提到】
: ROW都有 往年EB1能吃到EB4剩下来的巨大一部分SO 后来被中美洲难民abuse得EB4 SO越
: 来越少了
: EB1 ROW的话其实也就只有那么几个国家超了一年两千八 看再早几年数据的话也就是英
: 国韩国加拿大澳大利亚之类的 它们自己如果有EB4 SO的话应该也是能吃的
: 不过你这么一说 突然想到了另外一个问题 好多袖珍国 举例比如梵蒂冈 无论如何每年
: EB1也不可能用满2800 那么他们按理说是不是不应该被EB1排期的？那为什么他们也要
: 排？
: 说到底还是USCIS有病
| a**********y
发帖数: 233 | 23 中国也有这么多，为啥不给中国
,C
【在 x**a 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得是uscis/dos没有办法把所有国家都像中印一样单挑出来，比如除中印以外A,B,C
: 三国今年都过了2800, D,E,F没过，如果FAD前进，按现在的系统，没有理由只给DEF批
: 不给不给ABC批卡，所以现在还是很有可能，DEF用不完的都给了烙印(现在唯一的MRC)
: 。。。
| p*********g
发帖数: 453 | | i******w
发帖数: 1 | 25 我现在看着EB1的排期。感觉很可怕。ROW的EB3从有排期开始到再次current, 花了整整
13年。 | a**********y
发帖数: 233 | 26 我觉得这是唯一的解释
【在 p*********h 的大作中提到】
: 全世界的模特和文体工作者一下子都来了
| w*****t
发帖数: 10 | 27 没看错的话EB1的ROW还要倒退？这能说明eb1的需求都是真的吗 | n******a
发帖数: 2 | 28 移民法规定每个国家不能超过7%，即2800名，但没有说所有国家都要发满2800，所以梵
蒂冈并不是有自己的2800名额
之所以中印能发满2800，是因为两国都有排期，按照FIFO的原则，中印在正常情况下肯
定会发满2800。
其他国家都是一个pool，发满ROW名额以后，如果PD回退到比中国早，那ROW就可以去吃
中国的名额。这也就意味着，中国排期不可能快过ROW排期，因为如果ROW退回2015，中
国也必须退回2015，哪怕中国还没发满2800个。因为中国的2800是上限，不是必须发给
中国的。
另外，排期是国务院制定的，不是USCIS
【在 H********t 的大作中提到】
: ROW都有 往年EB1能吃到EB4剩下来的巨大一部分SO 后来被中美洲难民abuse得EB4 SO越
: 来越少了
: EB1 ROW的话其实也就只有那么几个国家超了一年两千八 看再早几年数据的话也就是英
: 国韩国加拿大澳大利亚之类的 它们自己如果有EB4 SO的话应该也是能吃的
: 不过你这么一说 突然想到了另外一个问题 好多袖珍国 举例比如梵蒂冈 无论如何每年
: EB1也不可能用满2800 那么他们按理说是不是不应该被EB1排期的？那为什么他们也要
: 排？
: 说到底还是USCIS有病
| H********t
发帖数: 4 | 29 我本来也是这么猜的 但一年半载的可以理解 年年这样就想不通了
【在 p*********h 的大作中提到】
: 全世界的模特和文体工作者一下子都来了
| H********t
发帖数: 4 | 30 话是这么说 但墨国、中美洲四国、菲律宾、越南全部都被拉出来了 而且实际情况很可
能是只有那么五个左右的国家demand巨大 然后连累了所有的人
,C
【在 x**a 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得是uscis/dos没有办法把所有国家都像中印一样单挑出来，比如除中印以外A,B,C
: 三国今年都过了2800, D,E,F没过，如果FAD前进，按现在的系统，没有理由只给DEF批
: 不给不给ABC批卡，所以现在还是很有可能，DEF用不完的都给了烙印(现在唯一的MRC)
: 。。。
| | | a**********y
发帖数: 233 | 31 一类还是有标准的
这几个国家一直需求很大，但是过标准的这么多，是不是不符合常理，东欧西欧应该是
唯一的解释
【在 H********t 的大作中提到】
: 话是这么说 但墨国、中美洲四国、菲律宾、越南全部都被拉出来了 而且实际情况很可
: 能是只有那么五个左右的国家demand巨大 然后连累了所有的人
:
: ,C
| s*******o
发帖数: 1 | 32 不是很理解那个不断测试的理由，所有的PD和485申请数据都在，测试个毛啊 | x**a
发帖数: 1 | 33 https://www.murthy.com/2019/06/26/july-2019-visa-bulletin-check-in/
上面链接说ROW在FY20开始的时候会return to be current不是current level (i.e. 4
/18)
哪个准？
2019
applicants
March
but
【在 C**N 的大作中提到】
: Family-Based Preference Categories
: The across the board advancement to “current” of the F-2A category is
: perhaps the most noteworthy update on the family-based side of the July 2019
: Visa Bulletin. This advancement is attributable to a failure of applicants
: to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letters. Interestingly, although the
: Final Action Date for this category is current, the Date for Filing is March
: 8, 2019. This was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to
: consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final
: Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but
: is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal
| C**N
发帖数: 27 | 34 ROW应该是回到4/22, return to being current感觉应该是指现在的日期（4/22). 另
一家律所的解读也是这样：
http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-for-august-2019/
4
【在 x**a 的大作中提到】
: https://www.murthy.com/2019/06/26/july-2019-visa-bulletin-check-in/
: 上面链接说ROW在FY20开始的时候会return to be current不是current level (i.e. 4
: /18)
: 哪个准？
:
: 2019
: applicants
: March
: but
|
|
