w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: warren (蛙人 -- 重返井底), 信区: Stock
标 题: 说到黄金,给大家一个有趣的发现.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 14 00:19:43 2008), 转信
前几天reveiw公司 PWM 部门的 gold investment speical research report,
虽然写于2007年初, 数据用的是up to 2006.12, 但是它分析很全面, 预测的大
趋势也很准. 很多数据很有意思, 挑几个跟大家分享. (sorry, I wish I could
share the report with you guys)
1. gold is precous metal 全世界至今为止所有的gold全部堆积在一起有
160,000 ton, 不要看这个数字大, 全部融化后 , 只有一个 20x20x20 m3 的立方体.
(I didn't buy it at the beginning. gold has 19,800 kg/m3 density)
看来以前传说中的金山那是传 | w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 2 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: warren (蛙人 -- 重返井底), 信区: Stock
标 题: 说到黄金,给大家一个有趣的发现.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 14 00:19:43 2008), 转信
前几天reveiw公司 PWM 部门的 gold investment speical research report,
虽然写于2007年初, 数据用的是up to 2006.12, 但是它分析很全面, 预测的大
趋势也很准. 很多数据很有意思, 挑几个跟大家分享. (sorry, I wish I could
share the report with you guys)
1. gold is precous metal 全世界至今为止所有的gold全部堆积在一起有
160,000 ton, 不要看这个数字大, 全部融化后 , 只有一个 20x20x20 m3 的立方体.
(I didn't buy it at the beginning. gold has 19,800 kg/m3 density)
看来以前传说中的金山那是传说, 什么national treasury里的成片的
黄金宝藏也是电影21.
2. 真正用gold里, 73%都是jewelry, 10%工业.
3. 印度需求 18%, 美国 14%, 欧洲 9%,中国 7%
4. finance demand increases significantly 投资者开始意识到
gold在保值和分散风险所处的重要地位, ETF 极大促进了交易的方便.
而且趋势还逐渐扩大, 有可能成为黄金的最主要需求.
5. 美国和欧洲央行自从美金和黄金挂钩体系崩溃後, 一直卖黄金.
中国印度日本将会大幅增加黄金储备以降低汇率风险,和多元化大量外汇储备
6. 黄金矿主在几年前就停止hedge (sell futures before produce), 现在
大量买回黄金实货,either cover hedge or long for appreciation.
总之, 矿主们都觉得黄金还会大涨.
7. 黄金挖掘成本越来越高, 容易挖的都快瓦光了, 前10年的黄金低迷,
矿主们都没动力去投资, 现在有动力, 缺面临技术和矿源的瓶颈.
supply估计要2010才能match demand
8. 现在gold recycle 月来约有赚头了.
9. 很多数据表明现在gold的牛市是一种持续的长久的大牛 (不同于以前几个中短期
的小牛)
10. gold开始牛的时候(2005?), 通货膨胀极地, 美元也不匝地贬值,没啥大灾难动乱
这种理论上不该牛的时候都能这么牛, 可想而知,gold要真的要大牛一把.
呵呵. 最后声明, I long Gold in middle of last year. I might have biases | w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 3 for those who want to know some FA of Gold
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: warren (蛙人 -- 重返井底), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: 说到黄金,给大家一个有趣的发现.
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 14 00:19:43 2008), 转信
: 前几天reveiw公司 PWM 部门的 gold investment speical research report,
: 虽然写于2007年初, 数据用的是up to 2006.12, 但是它分析很全面, 预测的大
: 趋势也很准. 很多数据很有意思, 挑几个跟大家分享. (sorry, I wish I could
: share the report with you guys)
: 1. gold is precous metal 全世界至今为止所有的gold全部堆积在一起有
: 160,000 ton, 不要看这个数字大, 全部融化后 , 只有一个 20x20x20 m3 的立方体.
| E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 4 美国黄金的capital gain tax是28%。算上这个还能有多少增长潜力？能好过其他投资？
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: for those who want to know some FA of Gold
| i*****h
发帖数: 169 | 5 如果只用退休金账户投，就和capital gain tax没有关系了。
我就只炒退休金。有没有人知道，美国股市里，有多少比例的资金是退休金？
资？
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 美国黄金的capital gain tax是28%。算上这个还能有多少增长潜力？能好过其他投资？
| c***u
发帖数: 190 | 6 why don't invest on the real estate, farm and land?
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: for those who want to know some FA of Gold
| h*x
发帖数: 207 | 7 Eventually, people will be able to make Gold, diamond etc in lab.
So long term wise, I avoid invest in these "precious" goods.
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: for those who want to know some FA of Gold
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 8 dont expect people can manufacture these things with a lower cost than
mining
in my life time
【在 h*x 的大作中提到】
: Eventually, people will be able to make Gold, diamond etc in lab.
: So long term wise, I avoid invest in these "precious" goods.
| h*x
发帖数: 207 | 9 It doesn't matter.
Once there is a break through, our gold becomes silver. Diamond becomes
crystal.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: dont expect people can manufacture these things with a lower cost than
: mining
: in my life time
| h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 10 just keep dreaming.
do not stop and wake up.
【在 h*x 的大作中提到】
: It doesn't matter.
: Once there is a break through, our gold becomes silver. Diamond becomes
: crystal.
| | | h*x
发帖数: 207 | 11 Not sure who needs to wake up.
Holding some gold is understandable and reasonable.
But betting on gold for the future is not right. | s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 12 I like the way you think.
But have you paid attention to law of physics?
Basically you need nuclear reaction (either fusion or fission) to make gold
out of other materials. Fusion from lighter atoms is pretty much forbidden
by energy conservation in the case of Au unless you infuse astronomical
amount of energy into it. For fission, are there any cheaper and abundunt
heavier atom to begin with?
I will not call it completely impossible given that our understanding of
nature is quite limited. But this should be a more remote possibility than,
say, we find and are able to mine gold from another planet.
By the way, diamond can certainly be made in lab, no big deal. It's just
carbon after all.
【在 h*x 的大作中提到】
: Eventually, people will be able to make Gold, diamond etc in lab.
: So long term wise, I avoid invest in these "precious" goods.
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 13 人类要是能在实验室里成批做出黄金来，估计 99% 的科幻小说都已经成真了。
【在 h*x 的大作中提到】
: Eventually, people will be able to make Gold, diamond etc in lab.
: So long term wise, I avoid invest in these "precious" goods.
| c******k
发帖数: 617 | 14 exactly.
gold
,
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: I like the way you think.
: But have you paid attention to law of physics?
: Basically you need nuclear reaction (either fusion or fission) to make gold
: out of other materials. Fusion from lighter atoms is pretty much forbidden
: by energy conservation in the case of Au unless you infuse astronomical
: amount of energy into it. For fission, are there any cheaper and abundunt
: heavier atom to begin with?
: I will not call it completely impossible given that our understanding of
: nature is quite limited. But this should be a more remote possibility than,
: say, we find and are able to mine gold from another planet.
| h*x
发帖数: 207 | | s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 16 是啊。问题是到时候大家都移民外太空了，还操心金子的事情干嘛？
【在 h*x 的大作中提到】
: 好的科幻小说是能预言未来的。
| h*x
发帖数: 207 | 17 It's not if we can or can not make gold in lab.
It's if it's worth it.
If gold current price is 1 million $ an ounce, what do you think many
scientists are working on? | n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 18 I wouldn't care what the scientists will be working on if gold price is $1m
a ounce. Though I do know they are not working on making gold out of lab at
this moment.
In addition, it's naive to think human beings can always beat the nature.
【在 h*x 的大作中提到】
: It's not if we can or can not make gold in lab.
: It's if it's worth it.
: If gold current price is 1 million $ an ounce, what do you think many
: scientists are working on?
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 19 No, you don't get it. It is exactly about our capability.
Making gold or most of chemical elements except those very
heavy or very light ones out of other elements is way way
beyond human's technology. This is not about money at all.
You need to learn some physics to understand it. Galaxy
travel would be like an elementary school thing comparing
with making gold in a lab.
【在 h*x 的大作中提到】
: It's not if we can or can not make gold in lab.
: It's if it's worth it.
: If gold current price is 1 million $ an ounce, what do you think many
: scientists are working on?
| h*x
发帖数: 207 | 20 No it's not as hard as Galaxy travel.
People did it in lab already:
"Nuclear experiments have successfully transmuted lead into gold, but the
expense far exceeds any gain"
excerpt from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_transmutation#cite_note-4 | | | s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 21 I was talking about meaningful production.
Not your 1 milligram experience.
【在 h*x 的大作中提到】
: No it's not as hard as Galaxy travel.
: People did it in lab already:
: "Nuclear experiments have successfully transmuted lead into gold, but the
: expense far exceeds any gain"
: excerpt from:
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_transmutation#cite_note-4
| l****y
发帖数: 8847 | 22 批量造原子弹/氢弹？
【在 h*x 的大作中提到】
: No it's not as hard as Galaxy travel.
: People did it in lab already:
: "Nuclear experiments have successfully transmuted lead into gold, but the
: expense far exceeds any gain"
: excerpt from:
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_transmutation#cite_note-4
| l******n
发帖数: 641 | 23 he's saying it's so easy,
that he can make nuke at home by hand
everyday and whenever he wants.
so he discard gold as trush.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I was talking about meaningful production.
: Not your 1 milligram experience.
| f*****b
发帖数: 1649 | 24 赞分享
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: for those who want to know some FA of Gold
| f*****b
发帖数: 1649 | 25 You don't buy and hold gold because it is GOLD. You buy and hold gold
because it has good buying power NOW and it has potential exchange power
during the APOCALYPSE.
Besides, the investors who can afford lots of gold now will surely stay on
top of any futuristic technology that makes gold worthless.
【在 h*x 的大作中提到】
: It doesn't matter.
: Once there is a break through, our gold becomes silver. Diamond becomes
: crystal.
|
|
