t*******h
发帖数: 30 | 1 or deflation first and then hyperinflation next year and beyond?
Can anyone who knows macro-economics shares his thoughts?
Its a kind of scary outside now. |
b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 2 why always think about extremes? in my opinion, neither, hehe |
t*******h
发帖数: 30 | 3 thanks for your thoughts，but with all those huge debt,
the debt will eventually be paid off, right? but how,
if there is not hyperinflation, how are US gov pay off
the monstrous size debt? why would you say neither?
mind elaborate a little more?
Thanks!
【在 b********y 的大作中提到】
: why always think about extremes? in my opinion, neither, hehe
|
b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 4 US government has had huge debt for many years, why it will collapse this
time?
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: thanks for your thoughts，but with all those huge debt,
: the debt will eventually be paid off, right? but how,
: if there is not hyperinflation, how are US gov pay off
: the monstrous size debt? why would you say neither?
: mind elaborate a little more?
: Thanks!
|
t*******h
发帖数: 30 | 5 It is true and had always been true. But it doesn't mean it will be true in
20 years, and 30 years.
What if someday, EU/Asia or even Africa united and start to chanllege USD
and abandon USD as their international currency. What would happen?
【在 b********y 的大作中提到】
: US government has had huge debt for many years, why it will collapse this
: time?
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 6 it will happen in future, but not now.
USD is still the safe currency you can rely on during the next year or two,
hehe
in
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: It is true and had always been true. But it doesn't mean it will be true in
: 20 years, and 30 years.
: What if someday, EU/Asia or even Africa united and start to chanllege USD
: and abandon USD as their international currency. What would happen?
|
t*******h
发帖数: 30 | 7 what about after 1 or 2 years?
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: it will happen in future, but not now.
: USD is still the safe currency you can rely on during the next year or two,
: hehe
:
: in
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 8 A diversification strategy would be dividing your money into 100
portions, and hold 100 different currencies in the world.
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: what about after 1 or 2 years?
|
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | |
b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 10 I believe core inflation will rise to about 2-3% but it's unlikely we will
repeat sth like 1970s
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 还是温和的inflation最好
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g****g
发帖数: 310 | |
s****i
发帖数: 2993 | 12 I think as the fed pumps in trillions of money, the chance
of having deflation is very low.
I'm planning on converting my bond funds to stable value
or money market. |
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 13 这么容易想到的事情通常和事实相反。
想想为什么pump了这么多钱，就好像化成水一样消失不见了
思考一下美国地面上地产的市值有多少
下跌20%减少的资产又有多少，你就明白为什么trillions还是无济于事了
当然，不仅仅房产，大部分资产，都会因为经济衰退而贬值
【在 s****i 的大作中提到】
: I think as the fed pumps in trillions of money, the chance
: of having deflation is very low.
: I'm planning on converting my bond funds to stable value
: or money market.
|
p********t
发帖数: 1219 | 14 再pump2到3个trillions，就显现出效果了。
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 这么容易想到的事情通常和事实相反。
: 想想为什么pump了这么多钱，就好像化成水一样消失不见了
: 思考一下美国地面上地产的市值有多少
: 下跌20%减少的资产又有多少，你就明白为什么trillions还是无济于事了
: 当然，不仅仅房产，大部分资产，都会因为经济衰退而贬值
|
i******l
发帖数: 828 | 15 现在几个吹根本打不起水花来。 响儿都听不见。
强烈呼吁以Q开头的货币单位。 吸吸
【在 p********t 的大作中提到】
: 再pump2到3个trillions，就显现出效果了。
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 16 commercial Real Estate,
corp bonds,
...
Banks know it's coming so they don't lend. At the same time, banks
buy Ts to earn interests. That's why even Paulson has to sell $500B but
yields drop more than 70 bps in a quater.
Let's look at Japan.
"Japs pumped huge YEN to banks but turned out to be a mere palliative for
the deleveraging in the private sector. Money velocity and the multiplier
are contracting and as a result, the expansion of the money supply is merely
sticking to banking sector balanc
【在 p********t 的大作中提到】
: 再pump2到3个trillions，就显现出效果了。
|
