a*******9
发帖数: 2265 | 1 房屋价格达到创纪录的速度下降
纽约（ CNNMoney.com ） -指数房价在20个主要都市地区达到创纪录的下跌速度在每年
11月的水平2004年以来从未见过的一份报告称，周二公布。
check for detail
http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2009/01/blog-post_27.html |
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 2 from the news only, the decision should be no.
We need to see the speed to be zero in order to reach the local bottom yah.
【在 a*******9 的大作中提到】
: 房屋价格达到创纪录的速度下降
: 纽约（ CNNMoney.com ） -指数房价在20个主要都市地区达到创纪录的下跌速度在每年
: 11月的水平2004年以来从未见过的一份报告称，周二公布。
: check for detail
: http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2009/01/blog-post_27.html
|
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | 3 同意啃泥弟弟，等没有人谈抄房底的时候才是进入的时候 |
x*o
发帖数: 1037 | 4 下跌速度创纪录，那为啥不等一等到价额更低的时候再买？
【在 a*******9 的大作中提到】
: 房屋价格达到创纪录的速度下降
: 纽约（ CNNMoney.com ） -指数房价在20个主要都市地区达到创纪录的下跌速度在每年
: 11月的水平2004年以来从未见过的一份报告称，周二公布。
: check for detail
: http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2009/01/blog-post_27.html
|
a*****z
发帖数: 87 | 5 i think anyone want to buy house also need to look at the interest rate
if the house price bottoms, but the interest rate is up, it might be better
to buy earlier to lock in lower rate
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: from the news only, the decision should be no.
: We need to see the speed to be zero in order to reach the local bottom yah.
|
l****n
发帖数: 6773 | 6 Buying house is like interest rate swap now. If you believe high inflation
in the near future, buying a house is the best investment. Of couse, you
need a house is a must.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: from the news only, the decision should be no.
: We need to see the speed to be zero in order to reach the local bottom yah.
|
l****n
发帖数: 6773 | 7 When you know where is the lowest, the lowest had already passed.
【在 x*o 的大作中提到】
: 下跌速度创纪录，那为啥不等一等到价额更低的时候再买？
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u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 8 house will never appreicate like it did in the mid decade in our lifetime.
the same bubble can't be inflated twice so quickly.
People should worry more about their cash flow than catching housing bottom.
Even if hyper inflation is coming, the likely scenario is stagflation, a
nightmire for housing market (skyrocketing interest rate will kill the
housing market, just think about what 18% interest rate will do).
【在 l****n 的大作中提到】
: When you know where is the lowest, the lowest had already passed.
|
l****n
发帖数: 6773 | 9 that's why you need lock 5% 30 year fixed now...
bottom.
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: house will never appreicate like it did in the mid decade in our lifetime.
: the same bubble can't be inflated twice so quickly.
: People should worry more about their cash flow than catching housing bottom.
: Even if hyper inflation is coming, the likely scenario is stagflation, a
: nightmire for housing market (skyrocketing interest rate will kill the
: housing market, just think about what 18% interest rate will do).
|
u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 10 at today's price, or at future price (when interest rate is 18%)? You
understand 18% interest rate means much lower housing price, do you?
【在 l****n 的大作中提到】
: that's why you need lock 5% 30 year fixed now...
:
: bottom.
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l****n
发帖数: 6773 | 11 18% interest rate does not mean much lower housing price (you can look at 80
's), otherwise, in Zimbabuwe, you can buy a house in cents. You fogot your
salary will increase at least same pace with the inflation...
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: at today's price, or at future price (when interest rate is 18%)? You
: understand 18% interest rate means much lower housing price, do you?
|
u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 12 try to ask for a raise when the recession is in full swing? Even now, CPI is still in +1.xx%, look at how many people are laid off. Can they just walk back to their
previous boss and ask for a raise instead of being let go?
80
【在 l****n 的大作中提到】
: 18% interest rate does not mean much lower housing price (you can look at 80
: 's), otherwise, in Zimbabuwe, you can buy a house in cents. You fogot your
: salary will increase at least same pace with the inflation...
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 13 So the best solution would be saving cash now and pay 100% cash when
interest rate is 18%, hehe.
80
【在 l****n 的大作中提到】
: 18% interest rate does not mean much lower housing price (you can look at 80
: 's), otherwise, in Zimbabuwe, you can buy a house in cents. You fogot your
: salary will increase at least same pace with the inflation...
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 14 No, you should buy mortgage-backed securities when interest
rate is 18%.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: So the best solution would be saving cash now and pay 100% cash when
: interest rate is 18%, hehe.
:
: 80
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 15 That vs gold, which one is better?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: No, you should buy mortgage-backed securities when interest
: rate is 18%.
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 16 you should be considering dump gold at that time. Very possible gold will
have been already overvalued at that time.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: That vs gold, which one is better?
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 17 oh, makes sense.
I just don't understand if the house price is dropping, why would interest
rate become 18%? Can't imagine ah...
House price drops --> economy is bad --> high unemployment --> deflation |
m*h
发帖数: 85 | 18 fed can only cut short term interest rate, not long term. mortgage is
affected by long term interest rate, like 10y, 30y, not short term rate.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: oh, makes sense.
: I just don't understand if the house price is dropping, why would interest
: rate become 18%? Can't imagine ah...
: House price drops --> economy is bad --> high unemployment --> deflation
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u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 19 your second scenario can have a modified version:
deflation stops --> nominal market comes back (real market continues to
crash or stays low)--> nominal economy comes back (real economy continues to
shink)-->unemployment continues to deteriorate-->Fed is forced to raise
interest rate to prevent further foreign capital escape -->housing market is
destroyed-->new administration re-affirms their stand on strong dollar-->
interest rate is raised to 18%, while people's income stays unchanged-->US
ave
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: oh, makes sense.
: I just don't understand if the house price is dropping, why would interest
: rate become 18%? Can't imagine ah...
: House price drops --> economy is bad --> high unemployment --> deflation
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c*u
发帖数: 916 | 20 your event chain has several errors.
You mixed up the cause and results. Usually the economy turning bad is the
cause, and house price drop is the result. The recent subprime crisis and
the resulting bad economy is not normal. It was built on "debt-based
economy" in US. We all know a "debt based economy" is not stable and is
destined to bust.
"high unemployment" does not necessarily lead to deflation. It may be
stagflation or hyperinflation. In either case, both the inflation is high
and the
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: oh, makes sense.
: I just don't understand if the house price is dropping, why would interest
: rate become 18%? Can't imagine ah...
: House price drops --> economy is bad --> high unemployment --> deflation
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a******g
发帖数: 1538 | 21 要等到living版至少有三个“急问：如何快速卖房子”的帖子才行
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 同意啃泥弟弟，等没有人谈抄房底的时候才是进入的时候
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 22 现在有几个？
【在 a******g 的大作中提到】
: 要等到living版至少有三个“急问：如何快速卖房子”的帖子才行
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a******g
发帖数: 1538 | 23 If I didn't miss any, I just saw one so far.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 现在有几个？
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a******g
发帖数: 1538 | 24 hope I am not the next...
【在 a******g 的大作中提到】
: If I didn't miss any, I just saw one so far.
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 25 Ok, once you post, I'll buy house, haha.
【在 a******g 的大作中提到】
: hope I am not the next...
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