h*9
发帖数: 38 | 1 Too fast too soon, IMHO. |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 not as good as platinum, which I am holding, hoho.
【在 h*9 的大作中提到】
: Too fast too soon, IMHO.
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 3 我会在适当的时候卖空黄金
$1000下方是个比较理想的位置，虽然我怀疑到不了1000就会倒跌了
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: not as good as platinum, which I am holding, hoho.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 4 while gold price is violate because the market is relatively small, I
don't see any strong reason to short gold.
1. physical demand is high by investors (although not consumers)
2. supply is shrinking.
3. Precious metals are the strongest market so far comparing with
stock, bond, agriculture, and oil.
4. why fight the trend anyway?
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 我会在适当的时候卖空黄金
: $1000下方是个比较理想的位置，虽然我怀疑到不了1000就会倒跌了
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 5 if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced，就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
和黄金的比价关系，黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: while gold price is violate because the market is relatively small, I
: don't see any strong reason to short gold.
: 1. physical demand is high by investors (although not consumers)
: 2. supply is shrinking.
: 3. Precious metals are the strongest market so far comparing with
: stock, bond, agriculture, and oil.
: 4. why fight the trend anyway?
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 6 For one thing, over-pricing can last a long time and go to extremes.
For another, there is some serious contango problem going on with
crude oil. I cannot say the oil price is unfair, but I am sure
somebody out there are really frustrated.
personally I don't see too much meaning in gold/silver ratio, because
silver is more an industrial metal nowsaday, while gold is not. However,
even it means something, it could also imply that the silver price is
low...
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced，就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系，黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 7 你是对的，泡沫也可以吹的很大，但总有破裂的一天。
黄金和石油受各类资金操纵的情况更多，但联系各类商品的比价关系得出黄金价格过高
的结论还是非常公平的。
如果要规避通胀，可以考虑买入几种标的。买入黄金的同时，也买进白银和其它贵
金属。如果你相信黄金会不断新高，那可以考虑更为稀有的白金，因为白金的生成
量只有黄金的1/10,但是价格基本相等。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: For one thing, over-pricing can last a long time and go to extremes.
: For another, there is some serious contango problem going on with
: crude oil. I cannot say the oil price is unfair, but I am sure
: somebody out there are really frustrated.
: personally I don't see too much meaning in gold/silver ratio, because
: silver is more an industrial metal nowsaday, while gold is not. However,
: even it means something, it could also imply that the silver price is
: low...
|
h****r
发帖数: 2056 | 8 白金的工业用途已经在diminishing， 做首饰上面用途不如黄金，硬通货上没有黄金的
地位。一句话：白金的前途渺茫。
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 你是对的，泡沫也可以吹的很大，但总有破裂的一天。
: 黄金和石油受各类资金操纵的情况更多，但联系各类商品的比价关系得出黄金价格过高
: 的结论还是非常公平的。
: 如果要规避通胀，可以考虑买入几种标的。买入黄金的同时，也买进白银和其它贵
: 金属。如果你相信黄金会不断新高，那可以考虑更为稀有的白金，因为白金的生成
: 量只有黄金的1/10,但是价格基本相等。
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 9
so the oil price would be up or down?
thanks.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: For one thing, over-pricing can last a long time and go to extremes.
: For another, there is some serious contango problem going on with
: crude oil. I cannot say the oil price is unfair, but I am sure
: somebody out there are really frustrated.
: personally I don't see too much meaning in gold/silver ratio, because
: silver is more an industrial metal nowsaday, while gold is not. However,
: even it means something, it could also imply that the silver price is
: low...
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 10 工业用途为什么在 diminishing ？
硬通货上没有黄金的地位是肯定的，否则的话白金和黄金的价格就不会相差
那么一点了。白金主要产地在俄罗斯，俄罗斯曾经想推崇白金的硬通货地位，
但是因为影响力有限，不是很成功。如果俄罗斯能提前复苏的话，必然带动
白金价格。
【在 h****r 的大作中提到】
: 白金的工业用途已经在diminishing， 做首饰上面用途不如黄金，硬通货上没有黄金的
: 地位。一句话：白金的前途渺茫。
|
|
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 11 all I can say is that eventually it will go up.
But next week or next month or even next year? only god knows.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
:
: so the oil price would be up or down?
: thanks.
|
h****r
发帖数: 2056 | 12 汽车行业的新技术的普及和运用，造成了白金的工业用途diminishing。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 工业用途为什么在 diminishing ？
: 硬通货上没有黄金的地位是肯定的，否则的话白金和黄金的价格就不会相差
: 那么一点了。白金主要产地在俄罗斯，俄罗斯曾经想推崇白金的硬通货地位，
: 但是因为影响力有限，不是很成功。如果俄罗斯能提前复苏的话，必然带动
: 白金价格。
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 13 what do u mean?
【在 h*9 的大作中提到】
: Too fast too soon, IMHO.
|
i******l
发帖数: 828 | 14 现在无论怎么说，黄金的货币功能已经在价格里面充分体现了这一点应该没有悬念把
【在 h****r 的大作中提到】
: 白金的工业用途已经在diminishing， 做首饰上面用途不如黄金，硬通货上没有黄金的
: 地位。一句话：白金的前途渺茫。
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 15 it is related to "someone out there is frustrated"?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: all I can say is that eventually it will go up.
: But next week or next month or even next year? only god knows.
|
y***a
发帖数: 840 | 16 "黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右"
where do u get this data? I highly doubt it is true.
still
two,
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced，就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系，黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 17 google is your best teacher
【在 y***a 的大作中提到】
: "黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右"
: where do u get this data? I highly doubt it is true.
:
: still
: two,
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 18
what is the normal price you think it would be? thanks.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: all I can say is that eventually it will go up.
: But next week or next month or even next year? only god knows.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 19 I don't think there is any "normal" price after all. Even there is, it
would be too complicated to figure it out.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
:
: what is the normal price you think it would be? thanks.
|
g****g
发帖数: 310 | 20 silver is between copper/gold, so it drops between copper/gold.
still
two,
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced，就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系，黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
|
|
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 21 Pt is between gold/silver, it has no value even 100 years ago, but it wo
rth more than gold today.
so what?
【在 g****g 的大作中提到】
: silver is between copper/gold, so it drops between copper/gold.
:
: still
: two,
|
o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 22 sometimes, extreme gold/silver ratio shows the scare in the equity market.
Gold is not just a metal commodity like silver.
still
two,
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: if you consider the ratio of gold/silver, you will find another answer
: historically, the ratio is 16 on average. While the production ratio of
: silver to gold is only 8 to 1, based on the data of recent year average.
: Even you consider the ratio of gold/crude oil and many other commodities
: on average in history, the gold is over-priced too much.
: 黄金白银的总储量比值也是1:8左右
: 现在1:60的比值如果不是黄金overpriced，就是白银太便宜了。考虑所有其它商品
: 和黄金的比价关系，黄金仍然是过于昂贵了。
: personally, I hold silver as a substitute to avoid inflation, while I s
|
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 23 I am predicting a DOW/GOLD ratio of 3, so maybe DOW 6000, GOLD 2000
if US dollar doesn't collapse totally.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
:
: what is the normal price you think it would be? thanks.
|
g****g
发帖数: 310 | 24 overvalued, Rhodium, Palladium and Platinum all had much higher price than
gold some time ago.
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: Pt is between gold/silver, it has no value even 100 years ago, but it wo
: rth more than gold today.
: so what?
|
K******l
发帖数: 39 | 25 1923 Weimar Germany, gold/silver =160
do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime."
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: sometimes, extreme gold/silver ratio shows the scare in the equity market.
: Gold is not just a metal commodity like silver.
:
: still
: two,
|
K******l
发帖数: 39 | 26 even in that case, inflation will bring Dow up to 10000+, so gold will be
at
least 3000
Since US can't afford a second Paul Volcker, as long as real interest rate
is less than 5%, gold will continue to go up.
If gold standard comes back, 50000$/oz is a piece of cake.
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: I am predicting a DOW/GOLD ratio of 3, so maybe DOW 6000, GOLD 2000
: if US dollar doesn't collapse totally.
|
m*h
发帖数: 85 | 27 hehe, when gold standard comes back, government loses power to inflate any
enonomy, like now, japanese style deep deflation is expected.
【在 K******l 的大作中提到】
: even in that case, inflation will bring Dow up to 10000+, so gold will be
: at
: least 3000
: Since US can't afford a second Paul Volcker, as long as real interest rate
: is less than 5%, gold will continue to go up.
: If gold standard comes back, 50000$/oz is a piece of cake.
|
K******l
发帖数: 39 | 28 that deflation will be a new currency with gold standard, then deflation.
Now, if we want to go back to gold standard, dollar has to go deeply down to
let gold skyrocket.
And actually Japan is not deflation, It exports inflation. carry-trade based
on JPY contributes a lot to commodities bull and financial derivative bull.
Now it collapses.
People criticize Greenspan for his low interest rate. Ben "cures" this by
doing exactly the same mistake Greenspan did.Lower interest rate, roaring M0
.
If US
【在 m*h 的大作中提到】
: hehe, when gold standard comes back, government loses power to inflate any
: enonomy, like now, japanese style deep deflation is expected.
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 29
He wants to be. But not sure he can or not :)
When was the gold confiscation rule gone?
this rule is very interesting one, since gold is a private property.
【在 K******l 的大作中提到】
: that deflation will be a new currency with gold standard, then deflation.
: Now, if we want to go back to gold standard, dollar has to go deeply down to
: let gold skyrocket.
: And actually Japan is not deflation, It exports inflation. carry-trade based
: on JPY contributes a lot to commodities bull and financial derivative bull.
: Now it collapses.
: People criticize Greenspan for his low interest rate. Ben "cures" this by
: doing exactly the same mistake Greenspan did.Lower interest rate, roaring M0
: .
: If US
|
g****g
发帖数: 310 | |
|
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 31 Monthly update:
closed below 900 today.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: while gold price is violate because the market is relatively small, I
: don't see any strong reason to short gold.
: 1. physical demand is high by investors (although not consumers)
: 2. supply is shrinking.
: 3. Precious metals are the strongest market so far comparing with
: stock, bond, agriculture, and oil.
: 4. why fight the trend anyway?
|
m**********r
发帖数: 887 | |
