f****t
发帖数: 1063 | |
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 2 以前不是讨论过吗？不过偶也找不到那个thread了。
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 蒸发了？从经济学上来说。
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 3 can you please enlight from your memory?
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 以前不是讨论过吗？不过偶也找不到那个thread了。
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 4 云南的普洱茶，本来一两就几块钱，炒到一两好几百，
于是上市，大家投资，炒到了一两好几万。这一共是好多
好多钱。
突然有专家论证，普洱茶有毒。一两几块钱都没人要了，
投资者大亏，公司破产。钱都到哪里去了呢？
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 蒸发了？从经济学上来说。
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j*a
发帖数: 14423 | 5 所以我觉得大印钞票也不会通胀
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 云南的普洱茶，本来一两就几块钱，炒到一两好几百，
: 于是上市，大家投资，炒到了一两好几万。这一共是好多
: 好多钱。
: 突然有专家论证，普洱茶有毒。一两几块钱都没人要了，
: 投资者大亏，公司破产。钱都到哪里去了呢？
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p****n
发帖数: 21 | 6 被banker发成奖金了, AIG 还在发呢
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 蒸发了？从经济学上来说。
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 7 这些钱从来就没有存在过。
比如A公司，股票给炒到$100，市值号称牛B轰轰的100亿，你觉得这100亿真的存在么？
真的象小山一样实打实的堆在那里可以全部或大部分套现么？一旦形势不好，有人开始
抛售，公司业绩下滑，全面经济萧条，如雪崩一样，你其实发现这股票就值一个钢蹦(
真实故事)。
同理，股市也一样。
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 蒸发了？从经济学上来说。
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 8 Not that simple. You forgot all the people who made money out of the
bubble.
Basically, if there is only one bubble in the whole economy, the money
will not evaporate. It just changes hand.
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: 这些钱从来就没有存在过。
: 比如A公司，股票给炒到$100，市值号称牛B轰轰的100亿，你觉得这100亿真的存在么？
: 真的象小山一样实打实的堆在那里可以全部或大部分套现么？一旦形势不好，有人开始
: 抛售，公司业绩下滑，全面经济萧条，如雪崩一样，你其实发现这股票就值一个钢蹦(
: 真实故事)。
: 同理，股市也一样。
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u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 9 this is not true. say, 90% of the shares fo Company A were bought at $1
before the bubble was inflated, then 5% was traded at $100 when the bubble
was inflated half-way, and 5% was traded/bought at $1000 when the bubble was
at its full swing. The market cap of A has grown 100 times, but how much
real money was actually invested in? The average cost of the shares is less
than $2, and far less than $1000. So, when the bubble deflate, all the so
called wealth destruction is on paper.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Not that simple. You forgot all the people who made money out of the
: bubble.
: Basically, if there is only one bubble in the whole economy, the money
: will not evaporate. It just changes hand.
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 10 是，但这些钱只是“总体”的一小部分。
粗略的咋一看，从峰值100亿到最后几乎一文不值，好像这100亿都曾经存在过，而后来
蒸发了，难免会产生“股市没有的钱到哪里去了”这种问题。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Not that simple. You forgot all the people who made money out of the
: bubble.
: Basically, if there is only one bubble in the whole economy, the money
: will not evaporate. It just changes hand.
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t*****n
发帖数: 225 | 11 市值峰值100亿没有什么物理意义吧，它只反应当时交易的价格很高而已。
比如有1亿粒大米，有一天有一个人被忽悠以为那是钻石花了100元买了1粒，
这时可以说大米的市值100亿了，而这100亿事实上根本不存在,哪来的蒸发？
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: 是，但这些钱只是“总体”的一小部分。
: 粗略的咋一看，从峰值100亿到最后几乎一文不值，好像这100亿都曾经存在过，而后来
: 蒸发了，难免会产生“股市没有的钱到哪里去了”这种问题。
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 12 解铃还须系铃人
泡沫里股市里赚的钱是哪里来的？
当然是泡沫破掉的时候亏的钱里面预支的
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: 是，但这些钱只是“总体”的一小部分。
: 粗略的咋一看，从峰值100亿到最后几乎一文不值，好像这100亿都曾经存在过，而后来
: 蒸发了，难免会产生“股市没有的钱到哪里去了”这种问题。
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 13 SIGH，从微观个体来讲，还是收手时机最重要，多少股神风云变幻。
股市如赌场，不怕你赢钱，就怕你不来了。
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 解铃还须系铃人
: 泡沫里股市里赚的钱是哪里来的？
: 当然是泡沫破掉的时候亏的钱里面预支的
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 14 that's the point.
【在 t*****n 的大作中提到】
: 市值峰值100亿没有什么物理意义吧，它只反应当时交易的价格很高而已。
: 比如有1亿粒大米，有一天有一个人被忽悠以为那是钻石花了100元买了1粒，
: 这时可以说大米的市值100亿了，而这100亿事实上根本不存在,哪来的蒸发？
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 15 Ok, I see your point.
I thought most people who got in at $1 would have sold all shares
before it reaches $1000... hehe, I forgot the greediness.
But again, how do stock market evaluate the "wealth"? Remember once
GOOG had a glitch and traded at $0.01? It recovered above $300 almost
immediately. Does that mean for that minute, Google Inc's wealth
shrinked to zero?
I personally won't consider myself wealthier if I see a +100% spike
of my stock at market close, with a minimal volume. I need to see
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: this is not true. say, 90% of the shares fo Company A were bought at $1
: before the bubble was inflated, then 5% was traded at $100 when the bubble
: was inflated half-way, and 5% was traded/bought at $1000 when the bubble was
: at its full swing. The market cap of A has grown 100 times, but how much
: real money was actually invested in? The average cost of the shares is less
: than $2, and far less than $1000. So, when the bubble deflate, all the so
: called wealth destruction is on paper.
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u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 16 hehe, price is all about supply and demand, nothing else. One of my friends
described to me vividly what happened to the Florida housing market.
Everybody was holding and holding, nobody wanted to sell, so the supply drys
up...until one day, literally over one night (or couple of nights I guess),
everybody started to sell at the same time, price plunged, multi-year
housing boom is over.
I still try to comprehend that "one night" description.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Ok, I see your point.
: I thought most people who got in at $1 would have sold all shares
: before it reaches $1000... hehe, I forgot the greediness.
: But again, how do stock market evaluate the "wealth"? Remember once
: GOOG had a glitch and traded at $0.01? It recovered above $300 almost
: immediately. Does that mean for that minute, Google Inc's wealth
: shrinked to zero?
: I personally won't consider myself wealthier if I see a +100% spike
: of my stock at market close, with a minimal volume. I need to see
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 17 市值100亿是纸上富贵，这个我明白。
问题时如果1亿粒大米将到他原来实实在在付出的钱（比如说$50)的时候，钱是不是不
见了? 尤其是整个市场都市如此的情况下。
【在 t*****n 的大作中提到】
: 市值峰值100亿没有什么物理意义吧，它只反应当时交易的价格很高而已。
: 比如有1亿粒大米，有一天有一个人被忽悠以为那是钻石花了100元买了1粒，
: 这时可以说大米的市值100亿了，而这100亿事实上根本不存在,哪来的蒸发？
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 18 If rice is the only broken bubble in the world, no, money just changed
hands.
If everything is broken bubble, then yes, money is gone.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 市值100亿是纸上富贵，这个我明白。
: 问题时如果1亿粒大米将到他原来实实在在付出的钱（比如说$50)的时候，钱是不是不
: 见了? 尤其是整个市场都市如此的情况下。
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f**********r
发帖数: 2137 | 19 交易了的钱就转手了嘛，没交易的就是不存在的。牛市时不断有人来接手，不断把钱转
去前面的人，等找不到转手的人了，最后那个人就破产了。但是虽然票面价钱增加了，
没有进行交易的那部分钱都是不存在的，比如你1块钱买的，涨到10块， 你没出手，那
9块都是不存在的。 |
p********t
发帖数: 1219 | 20 你的脑筋没有转过来，并不是所有的大米都被实实在在的交易过(你所谓的实实在在付
出的钱)。股市的股票，只有一部分是一路交易上来的。被交易的部分是确实有人赚钱
有人亏钱的，但是大部分的股票并没有被交易过，价格却也随着交易价格变化，从而产
生了泡沫。
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 市值100亿是纸上富贵，这个我明白。
: 问题时如果1亿粒大米将到他原来实实在在付出的钱（比如说$50)的时候，钱是不是不
: 见了? 尤其是整个市场都市如此的情况下。
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 21 他问的是：有个人$100买了袋大米，结果5年后以$50卖了。请问剩下那$50哪里去
了。
【在 p********t 的大作中提到】
: 你的脑筋没有转过来，并不是所有的大米都被实实在在的交易过(你所谓的实实在在付
: 出的钱)。股市的股票，只有一部分是一路交易上来的。被交易的部分是确实有人赚钱
: 有人亏钱的，但是大部分的股票并没有被交易过，价格却也随着交易价格变化，从而产
: 生了泡沫。
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p********t
发帖数: 1219 | 22 交易的亏损自然是被别人赚走了。$50到别人口袋了。这个问题前面已经回答了。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 他问的是：有个人$100买了袋大米，结果5年后以$50卖了。请问剩下那$50哪里去
: 了。
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 23 let us make a simple model.
if all rice are actually trade except the last holder,
1) when the price is up, then gov needs to print money, more paper money in
the market.
2) when the price is down, then where is the money? paper money in the flow
is too much.
【在 p********t 的大作中提到】
: 你的脑筋没有转过来，并不是所有的大米都被实实在在的交易过(你所谓的实实在在付
: 出的钱)。股市的股票，只有一部分是一路交易上来的。被交易的部分是确实有人赚钱
: 有人亏钱的，但是大部分的股票并没有被交易过，价格却也随着交易价格变化，从而产
: 生了泡沫。
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u*****n
发帖数: 160 | 24 Why "when the price is up, then gov needs to print money"? it is much more
like "when gov print too much money which leads too much money chase rice/
cloth/house hence price inflation". No?
in
flow
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: let us make a simple model.
: if all rice are actually trade except the last holder,
: 1) when the price is up, then gov needs to print money, more paper money in
: the market.
: 2) when the price is down, then where is the money? paper money in the flow
: is too much.
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 25 assumption --> if all rice are actually trade except the last holder
let us say 10 people, each have $1, there is A has 10 rices, each worthy $1.
He sells rich to other 9 people, so A has all $10.
Now rice is up, B wants to sell rice to C for $100. Where does the money
come from? print?
more
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: Why "when the price is up, then gov needs to print money"? it is much more
: like "when gov print too much money which leads too much money chase rice/
: cloth/house hence price inflation". No?
:
: in
: flow
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 26 so even in the very very very deep depression,
it is: some is richer, some is poorer,
it is not this case: every one is poorer?
I think in the very very very deep depression, every one is poorer.
【在 p********t 的大作中提到】
: 交易的亏损自然是被别人赚走了。$50到别人口袋了。这个问题前面已经回答了。
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s**********d
发帖数: 36899 | 27
every is poorer because they mistakenly thought they were rich
when the stock market was in orgasm.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: so even in the very very very deep depression,
: it is: some is richer, some is poorer,
: it is not this case: every one is poorer?
: I think in the very very very deep depression, every one is poorer.
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m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 28
That sounds like an argument _for_ getting rid of mark-to-market...
【在 p********t 的大作中提到】
: 你的脑筋没有转过来，并不是所有的大米都被实实在在的交易过(你所谓的实实在在付
: 出的钱)。股市的股票，只有一部分是一路交易上来的。被交易的部分是确实有人赚钱
: 有人亏钱的，但是大部分的股票并没有被交易过，价格却也随着交易价格变化，从而产
: 生了泡沫。
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p********t
发帖数: 1219 | 29 With your assumption(which is definitely wrong in the real world), the $100
can be paid off in the form of debt.
If B agrees, even C doesn't have any cash, he/she owns the rice now, owing $
100 to B. That's the current situation, right?
1.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: assumption --> if all rice are actually trade except the last holder
: let us say 10 people, each have $1, there is A has 10 rices, each worthy $1.
: He sells rich to other 9 people, so A has all $10.
: Now rice is up, B wants to sell rice to C for $100. Where does the money
: come from? print?
:
: more
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p********t
发帖数: 1219 | 30 There is not enough paper money in this world. That is the problem now. You
miss something called debt. Not all goods are traded in paper money.
in
flow
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: let us make a simple model.
: if all rice are actually trade except the last holder,
: 1) when the price is up, then gov needs to print money, more paper money in
: the market.
: 2) when the price is down, then where is the money? paper money in the flow
: is too much.
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 31 No, in that case B won't sell his rice in 1 year.
A more reasonable case would be: B wants to sell rice for $2, because
rice suddenly becomes rare.
C and D decide to chip in and come up with $2 and bought the rice.
They then share the bag, each having 50%.
Now back to your question: if B sells rice for $100 and succeeded,
it means there are at least $100 floating cash out there. That's why
I said before: "if rice is the only bubble in the economy, then money
just changed hands, didn't disappear.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: assumption --> if all rice are actually trade except the last holder
: let us say 10 people, each have $1, there is A has 10 rices, each worthy $1.
: He sells rich to other 9 people, so A has all $10.
: Now rice is up, B wants to sell rice to C for $100. Where does the money
: come from? print?
:
: more
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 32 there is inflation every year (or most of years). Does it mean that the gov
has to print some money every year?
You
【在 p********t 的大作中提到】
: There is not enough paper money in this world. That is the problem now. You
: miss something called debt. Not all goods are traded in paper money.
:
: in
: flow
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