s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 1 Fed must have decided to follow British for quantitative easing, this
time it's real. |
m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 2
Heh, meanwhile the dollar is getting its ass kicked...
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Fed must have decided to follow British for quantitative easing, this
: time it's real.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 3 indeed
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090318/fed_interest_rates.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Fed must have decided to follow British for quantitative easing, this
: time it's real.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 4 That's for sure.
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
:
: Heh, meanwhile the dollar is getting its ass kicked...
|
m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 5
And look at how the oil spreads explode! Just beautiful...
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: That's for sure.
|
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | |
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 7 why quantitative easing will cause treasury jump? i thought it will
cause inflation. maybe it's because of the fed's statement about
keeping the rate low for a long time.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Fed must have decided to follow British for quantitative easing, this
: time it's real.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 8 End of road, treasuries will crash. We'll probably see that some time next
year. And that will eventually crash stock market again. And if we are
lucky enough, we can call a long-term bottom by 2011.
But for now, come on, Fed is printing money to buy treasuries. You tell
me why treasury is up?
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: why quantitative easing will cause treasury jump? i thought it will
: cause inflation. maybe it's because of the fed's statement about
: keeping the rate low for a long time.
|
t***o
发帖数: 462 | 9 I understand that US government will borrow too much money, and that will
devalue treasuries.
But, unless China, Japan and other major US treasury holders try to
liquidate their position, how will the crash happen?
Do you think if US government can't find buyers for treasuries, they will
ask FED to print money anyway?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: End of road, treasuries will crash. We'll probably see that some time next
: year. And that will eventually crash stock market again. And if we are
: lucky enough, we can call a long-term bottom by 2011.
: But for now, come on, Fed is printing money to buy treasuries. You tell
: me why treasury is up?
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 10 According to Treasury: http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
JAN NET LONG TERM TIC FLOWS:
- $43B V $45BE; TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS -$148.9B V $86.2B PRIOR
- China holding of US Treasuries rose by $12.2B to $739.6B
- Japan Holdings rose by $8.8B
...
Others already dumped Ts.
【在 t***o 的大作中提到】
: I understand that US government will borrow too much money, and that will
: devalue treasuries.
: But, unless China, Japan and other major US treasury holders try to
: liquidate their position, how will the crash happen?
: Do you think if US government can't find buyers for treasuries, they will
: ask FED to print money anyway?
|
|
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 11 They have to stop printing when inflation kicks in.
【在 t***o 的大作中提到】
: I understand that US government will borrow too much money, and that will
: devalue treasuries.
: But, unless China, Japan and other major US treasury holders try to
: liquidate their position, how will the crash happen?
: Do you think if US government can't find buyers for treasuries, they will
: ask FED to print money anyway?
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 12 Actually, I don't know it is really dumping treasury and how realistically
China can dump the treasury. Someone enlightens me please:
Now we all know that China runs a trade surplus with USA. So each months,
say China sells US $20B clothes and nothing else, and then China buys from
US $10B Boeing airplanes and nothing else. And the end of the month, China
is hold $10B USD, there is no way to avoid it. Now, what can China do with
this $10B if not buying treasury? It could buy oil, but US doesn't
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: According to Treasury: http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
: JAN NET LONG TERM TIC FLOWS:
: - $43B V $45BE; TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS -$148.9B V $86.2B PRIOR
: - China holding of US Treasuries rose by $12.2B to $739.6B
: - Japan Holdings rose by $8.8B
: ...
: Others already dumped Ts.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 13 That's why China is lending Russia money and Russia returns oil to China.
That's why Chinese Gov is pushing US Gov for assets safety.
Do I understand it correctly?
it
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Actually, I don't know it is really dumping treasury and how realistically
: China can dump the treasury. Someone enlightens me please:
: Now we all know that China runs a trade surplus with USA. So each months,
: say China sells US $20B clothes and nothing else, and then China buys from
: US $10B Boeing airplanes and nothing else. And the end of the month, China
: is hold $10B USD, there is no way to avoid it. Now, what can China do with
: this $10B if not buying treasury? It could buy oil, but US doesn't
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 14 中国的外汇储备这回增值了。
中美真成了捆在一切的蚂蚱
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Fed must have decided to follow British for quantitative easing, this
: time it's real.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 15 也不是
我感觉
美国外债只有三条出路
１还钱，子子孙孙无穷尽也
２破产，大家再也不用美元了
３忽悠一个大象埋单
美元贬值是介乎于１和２的一个办法
中国只要小心３，别像日本那样被忽悠的埋单就行
纯粹个人浅见
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 中国的外汇储备这回增值了。
: 中美真成了捆在一切的蚂蚱
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 16 当然，八飞以前提出过一个进口许可券的办法。
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 也不是
: 我感觉
: 美国外债只有三条出路
: １还钱，子子孙孙无穷尽也
: ２破产，大家再也不用美元了
: ３忽悠一个大象埋单
: 美元贬值是介乎于１和２的一个办法
: 中国只要小心３，别像日本那样被忽悠的埋单就行
: 纯粹个人浅见
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 17 暂时还不好说，不过长期看美元贬值是必然的。
当然，也许那个欧元贬的更多，如果大家都贬，就不好说了。
英国是18－19世纪的超级大国，衰落了100年以后英镑也还在流通，虽然地位越来越差
美元长期看地位下降，但也许我们的有生之年美元还是会广泛流通。
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 也不是
: 我感觉
: 美国外债只有三条出路
: １还钱，子子孙孙无穷尽也
: ２破产，大家再也不用美元了
: ３忽悠一个大象埋单
: 美元贬值是介乎于１和２的一个办法
: 中国只要小心３，别像日本那样被忽悠的埋单就行
: 纯粹个人浅见
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 18 但是如果美国输出的钱全给了中国和印度，那么取代美元的应该是……
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 暂时还不好说，不过长期看美元贬值是必然的。
: 当然，也许那个欧元贬的更多，如果大家都贬，就不好说了。
: 英国是18－19世纪的超级大国，衰落了100年以后英镑也还在流通，虽然地位越来越差
: 美元长期看地位下降，但也许我们的有生之年美元还是会广泛流通。
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 19 大牛们看看我的理解对不对
Treasury Notes某种程度上是欠钱还钱
印美元买Treasury Note就是赖账
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 也不是
: 我感觉
: 美国外债只有三条出路
: １还钱，子子孙孙无穷尽也
: ２破产，大家再也不用美元了
: ３忽悠一个大象埋单
: 美元贬值是介乎于１和２的一个办法
: 中国只要小心３，别像日本那样被忽悠的埋单就行
: 纯粹个人浅见
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 20 not really bah.
t-bonds is issued by the government to fund the deficit.
fed usually increase the money supply by the multiplication
effect. but these days nobody is lending, so that mechanism
is not functional. so they buy t-bonds to fund the stimulus etc.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 大牛们看看我的理解对不对
: Treasury Notes某种程度上是欠钱还钱
: 印美元买Treasury Note就是赖账
|
|
|
u*****n
发帖数: 160 | 21 Well, we will certainly be happy to take Alaska ir Hawaii if they cannot
afford to pay the debt. No? US bought Alaska from russia some time ago, I
remember.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 也不是
: 我感觉
: 美国外债只有三条出路
: １还钱，子子孙孙无穷尽也
: ２破产，大家再也不用美元了
: ３忽悠一个大象埋单
: 美元贬值是介乎于１和２的一个办法
: 中国只要小心３，别像日本那样被忽悠的埋单就行
: 纯粹个人浅见
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 22 USA will probably consider selling North Dakota first.
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: Well, we will certainly be happy to take Alaska ir Hawaii if they cannot
: afford to pay the debt. No? US bought Alaska from russia some time ago, I
: remember.
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | |
t***o
发帖数: 462 | 24 刚才看dick morris在fox news上说，FED自危机以来已经triple money supply,他说现
在银行把口袋捂得紧一些，不过经济稍微缓解，美元就会烂大街。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: They have to stop printing when inflation kicks in.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 25 Chinese government can refuse to export $20B, instead, export $10B
and buy another $10B with RMB and give them to the poors for cheap
or free. And sell this $10B deficit as treasury to other country,
and repay with US treasury.
So instead of lending more and feed the bustards for garbage notes,
we can borrow instead.
it
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Actually, I don't know it is really dumping treasury and how realistically
: China can dump the treasury. Someone enlightens me please:
: Now we all know that China runs a trade surplus with USA. So each months,
: say China sells US $20B clothes and nothing else, and then China buys from
: US $10B Boeing airplanes and nothing else. And the end of the month, China
: is hold $10B USD, there is no way to avoid it. Now, what can China do with
: this $10B if not buying treasury? It could buy oil, but US doesn't
|
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 26 金子昨天一开始还在继续回调，收到消息后一根垂直线上扬
【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】
: 现在应该买金子了？
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 27 so it is a good time to invest on gov bonds?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Fed must have decided to follow British for quantitative easing, this
: time it's real.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 28 I don't dare to buy anything now, //sigh...
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: so it is a good time to invest on gov bonds?
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 29 reasons, especially for gov bonds? thx
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I don't dare to buy anything now, //sigh...
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 30 reason for bond: I never bought any bond in my whole life, so don't dare.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: reasons, especially for gov bonds? thx
|
|
|
m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 31
That's not gonna happen until the RMB becomes freely exchangeable
with open-market rates.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Chinese government can refuse to export $20B, instead, export $10B
: and buy another $10B with RMB and give them to the poors for cheap
: or free. And sell this $10B deficit as treasury to other country,
: and repay with US treasury.
: So instead of lending more and feed the bustards for garbage notes,
: we can borrow instead.
:
: it
|
o***e
发帖数: 164 | 32 how to "doesn't allow"?
If you have $$, couldn't you buy oil future contracts on markets?
it |
