f****t
发帖数: 1063 | |
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 2 That's 16% annual increase, not impossible on good stock.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: what do you folks think? unbelievable?
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/ChinaStock/31216367.html
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 3 but the point is:
1) it is etfs?
2) for 20-30 years, each year 16%, this is hard, right?
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: That's 16% annual increase, not impossible on good stock.
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 4 There're good years and bad years. But the point is,
some stock 20x in a span much less than that.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: but the point is:
: 1) it is etfs?
: 2) for 20-30 years, each year 16%, this is hard, right?
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 5
sorry, I don't get your point?
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: There're good years and bad years. But the point is,
: some stock 20x in a span much less than that.
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 6 一看就是拍脑袋忽悠出来的数
我始终认为 数 只是个结果
关键是方法是否正确
就像跑步一样，跑多快是个数
练习的方法再正确也不能保证我们人人都跑博尔特的数
但是练习方法不正确肯定不行
股市里的问题是
大家太关心数了
忘了方法
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: but the point is:
: 1) it is etfs?
: 2) for 20-30 years, each year 16%, this is hard, right?
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 7 Impossible is nothing.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
:
: sorry, I don't get your point?
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 8 black cat, or white cat, ... you know that ...
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 一看就是拍脑袋忽悠出来的数
: 我始终认为 数 只是个结果
: 关键是方法是否正确
: 就像跑步一样，跑多快是个数
: 练习的方法再正确也不能保证我们人人都跑博尔特的数
: 但是练习方法不正确肯定不行
: 股市里的问题是
: 大家太关心数了
: 忘了方法
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 9 还有一点是偶一直鼓吹的：
在开始练习之前，先得买一个秒表，否则连自己跑了多少秒都不知道。
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 一看就是拍脑袋忽悠出来的数
: 我始终认为 数 只是个结果
: 关键是方法是否正确
: 就像跑步一样，跑多快是个数
: 练习的方法再正确也不能保证我们人人都跑博尔特的数
: 但是练习方法不正确肯定不行
: 股市里的问题是
: 大家太关心数了
: 忘了方法
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 10 Right, but we got to learn how to catch mouse rather than to predict how
many mice we can catch with certain method.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: black cat, or white cat, ... you know that ...
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|
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 11 But cats change colors in stock market.
10 years black cat; next 10 years white cat. hoho.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: black cat, or white cat, ... you know that ...
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 12 是,看秒表当然重要
不过科学的训练这个整体我以为也很重要
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 还有一点是偶一直鼓吹的：
: 在开始练习之前，先得买一个秒表，否则连自己跑了多少秒都不知道。
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 13 borrow human gas to ask a question:
in the long run, should stock market track GDP?
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: That's 16% annual increase, not impossible on good stock.
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 14 ok. what is the correct way? I think this is also a big question ...
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Right, but we got to learn how to catch mouse rather than to predict how
: many mice we can catch with certain method.
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 15 1) standardize measurement equipment.
2) do experiments and record measurements.
3) compare and track the results to decide the performance.
4) Propose new experiment methods on new projects based on past
experiment results.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: ok. what is the correct way? I think this is also a big question ...
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 16 I mean I am never very serious about future return rate, that's not
important. It's something nobody can predict accurately. However, whether
the investment strategy is sound is more important.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: ok. what is the correct way? I think this is also a big question ...
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 17 My 2 cents, the overall stock market shouldn't be far away from the GDP.
But GDP is kind of total revenue, stock is kind of earning power.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: borrow human gas to ask a question:
: in the long run, should stock market track GDP?
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 18
so when you are 100, you are still doing your experiment ...
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 1) standardize measurement equipment.
: 2) do experiments and record measurements.
: 3) compare and track the results to decide the performance.
: 4) Propose new experiment methods on new projects based on past
: experiment results.
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 19 do you think his method in the ChinaStock is sound?
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: I mean I am never very serious about future return rate, that's not
: important. It's something nobody can predict accurately. However, whether
: the investment strategy is sound is more important.
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 20 That's exactly the spirit of a scientist, hehe.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: do you think his method in the ChinaStock is sound?
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 21 this is the old way.
the new way, get a N prize at 40, and then retire ;)
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: That's exactly the spirit of a scientist, hehe.
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 22 Although what he proposed is not too much different from
a 1-year DCA which is OK, I frowned when I read "然后开始换
一种计算方法".
I just hate sth like that, //sigh...
Again, standardize your measurement equipment before doing
experiments.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: do you think his method in the ChinaStock is sound?
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 23 You mean now scientists also start to gamble? @_@
Like proposing some very aggressive experiment plan, with only 1%
chance of success, but if succeeded, that'll be a N-Prize level
blast.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: this is the old way.
: the new way, get a N prize at 40, and then retire ;)
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 24 It doesn't sound bad to try to chip in gradually when market is low. But, I
won't buy something without even looking at the price.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: do you think his method in the ChinaStock is sound?
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 25 Then there is no way China can sustain 16% GDP in the next 20-30
years.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents, the overall stock market shouldn't be far away from the GDP.
: But GDP is kind of total revenue, stock is kind of earning power.
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 26 any one on the earth can do that?
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Then there is no way China can sustain 16% GDP in the next 20-30
: years.
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 27 Wait, there seems to be inflation too. So GDP doesn't need
to be 16%.
But again, I still don't think there is any way China can sustain
10% GDP for 20-30 years.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Then there is no way China can sustain 16% GDP in the next 20-30
: years.
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 28 At 1800 point, I think Chinese stocks are just fair priced rather than
bargain priced. So, at that level I won't put everything in it.
I
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: It doesn't sound bad to try to chip in gradually when market is low. But, I
: won't buy something without even looking at the price.
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 29 currently us market is also low, but who knows what will happen in the next
20-30 years, china market is better, or us market is better. sigh...
I
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: It doesn't sound bad to try to chip in gradually when market is low. But, I
: won't buy something without even looking at the price.
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 30 Right, it's really hard to say. My personal evaluation is that US market is
cheaper than Chinese market. But, most US companies are in their senior ages
and most Chinese companies are relatively young. When you get an old
company, chances are it has a lot of problems because of its age. And, most
Chinese manufacturers are low cost producers, which I like very much. But,
whether these things can offset the price difference, it's hard to say. I
personally prefer cheap things.
next
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: currently us market is also low, but who knows what will happen in the next
: 20-30 years, china market is better, or us market is better. sigh...
:
: I
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P***a
发帖数: 774 | 31 按照每年 11%算, 30年后是22倍
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: what do you folks think? unbelievable?
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/ChinaStock/31216367.html
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P***a
发帖数: 774 | 32 按照每年16%算, 30年后是85.5倍
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: That's 16% annual increase, not impossible on good stock.
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d*******d
发帖数: 15 | 33 Stock market is nominal growth, GDP is real growth.
Nominal rate=real rate+inflation rate
16% of nominal growth/year is very possible in the next 20 years
just 10% real growth and 6% inflation each year.
China's gdp per capita is like $2000-3000/year,
I think it will be over $20000/year in 20 years.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Wait, there seems to be inflation too. So GDP doesn't need
: to be 16%.
: But again, I still don't think there is any way China can sustain
: 10% GDP for 20-30 years.
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 34 My 2 cents,
Stock return = capital gain + dividend
SP500 Captical growth should match US GDP growth if the weight of SP500
companies in US economy is stable.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: My 2 cents, the overall stock market shouldn't be far away from the GDP.
: But GDP is kind of total revenue, stock is kind of earning power.
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