s********h
发帖数: 158 | 1 the federal deficit now hits $1.38 trillion and still growing fast. so just
how big is this number?
the u.s. population is 305 million, which means that the per capita
indebtedness is $4,525. That being said, if we exclude those under age 20
and over 65, which account for 3/8 of the population, the debt per capita
becomes $7,239.
just the thought of this make me cringe... | m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 2 I do not worry about such small debt at all. Average net worth per person is
around $170, 000 in USA, a decreasing from $220, 000 peaking on Oct 2007. $
8000 debt is only 5% of the net worth. | L****a
发帖数: 572 | 3 这个是 deficit, 不是 national debt. National debt is close to 12 trillion.
到 2018 年预计是 18 trillion.
注意这是 public debt, 还没有记入 private debt. | k**u
发帖数: 698 | 4 even that is not that big a number when total wealth is in the context
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: 这个是 deficit, 不是 national debt. National debt is close to 12 trillion.
: 到 2018 年预计是 18 trillion.
: 注意这是 public debt, 还没有记入 private debt.
| s*******d
发帖数: 126 | 5 In the 1940's, the US national debt is 120% of the GDP, and now it is about
80%. I guess we are really not in uncharted territory.
Think of it this way, even if the US defaults on its debt and reissues new
currency and new bonds, it would still be the most trustworthy currency/
bonds in the world - which other country do you think can issue more credit-
worthy debts? England, EU, Russia, Japan, China? I seriously doubt it.
Also, if every country in the world now is printing money and issusing de
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: 这个是 deficit, 不是 national debt. National debt is close to 12 trillion.
: 到 2018 年预计是 18 trillion.
: 注意这是 public debt, 还没有记入 private debt.
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 6 LOL, thinking of it your way, if US will issue new currency, what's
the credit of it's current currency?
If you are a middle class in the US, the government is trying hard to
redistribute your wealth to top class and poor class by inflating your
money away. I just don't think that's the best possible side.
about
credit-
debts
【在 s*******d 的大作中提到】
: In the 1940's, the US national debt is 120% of the GDP, and now it is about
: 80%. I guess we are really not in uncharted territory.
: Think of it this way, even if the US defaults on its debt and reissues new
: currency and new bonds, it would still be the most trustworthy currency/
: bonds in the world - which other country do you think can issue more credit-
: worthy debts? England, EU, Russia, Japan, China? I seriously doubt it.
: Also, if every country in the world now is printing money and issusing de
| s*******d
发帖数: 126 | 7 If the US issues new currency, the old currency will be worth nothing. And
domestically, it accounts to a massive redistribution of wealth, from the
elderly to the youth, from people whose wealth is more concentrated on
government bonds to those who are not. I am not saying that it will be a
pretty picture.
If that were to happen and you have investement in government bonds, yes,
you will be wiped out, but if you own a small percentage of the stock market
(again, index funds), you will be alrigh
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: LOL, thinking of it your way, if US will issue new currency, what's
: the credit of it's current currency?
: If you are a middle class in the US, the government is trying hard to
: redistribute your wealth to top class and poor class by inflating your
: money away. I just don't think that's the best possible side.
:
: about
: credit-
: debts
| m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 8 American have accumulated $60 trillion dollars in the past held in dollar
denominated assets. Printing more money will dilute such asset and issuing
new currency is so crazy and this is the last thing will happen, which
definitely will lead to revolution. Fed just want to inflate 3% each year to
make some interest and keep economy humming. | s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 9 I agree with what you said. But what you said is basically that US has
the lowest risk. However, having lowest risk doesn't mean it's the best
place for your wealth because it may have a negative expected return.
market
as
【在 s*******d 的大作中提到】
: If the US issues new currency, the old currency will be worth nothing. And
: domestically, it accounts to a massive redistribution of wealth, from the
: elderly to the youth, from people whose wealth is more concentrated on
: government bonds to those who are not. I am not saying that it will be a
: pretty picture.
: If that were to happen and you have investement in government bonds, yes,
: you will be wiped out, but if you own a small percentage of the stock market
: (again, index funds), you will be alrigh
| L****a
发帖数: 572 | 10 1940's 的 debt 是二战引起的. 战争停止后, 因为 military spending 减少,
debt 很快就减少了. 现在的情形是 debt 很难减少, 而且越来越多. 因为很多
spending 很难cut. 比如 medicare 这种, 很不容易 cut.
about
credit-
debts
【在 s*******d 的大作中提到】
: In the 1940's, the US national debt is 120% of the GDP, and now it is about
: 80%. I guess we are really not in uncharted territory.
: Think of it this way, even if the US defaults on its debt and reissues new
: currency and new bonds, it would still be the most trustworthy currency/
: bonds in the world - which other country do you think can issue more credit-
: worthy debts? England, EU, Russia, Japan, China? I seriously doubt it.
: Also, if every country in the world now is printing money and issusing de
| | | s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 11 一人四万美元债务?
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: 这个是 deficit, 不是 national debt. National debt is close to 12 trillion.
: 到 2018 年预计是 18 trillion.
: 注意这是 public debt, 还没有记入 private debt.
| w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 12 分析来分析去，你们的出发点还是中国式的，哎呀，我欠了很多年债要还，回头看看，
美国欠了多少年债了，有还过吗，不是连联合国会费还一直欠着吗？跟强盗还讲道理，
真是秀才遇着兵 | D*****a
发帖数: 2847 | 13 Did they ever default?
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】
: 分析来分析去，你们的出发点还是中国式的，哎呀，我欠了很多年债要还，回头看看，
: 美国欠了多少年债了，有还过吗，不是连联合国会费还一直欠着吗？跟强盗还讲道理，
: 真是秀才遇着兵
| w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 14 "美国：最讨厌你们这些Default的(比如俄罗斯),一点技术含量都没有"
Default这么伤人品，又没有技术含量的事，美国不会干的，
要得就是大家对它前景的Illusion,如果Default了，不摆明说，我不行了。
(看俄罗斯，坏了人品，伤了元气，没人敢进去投资了）
Think out of the box, 不能以新债抵旧债啊？这也是它正在做的。
这样可以永远欠债，只要有人肯买帐,这点很重要，
换一个国家，比如津巴布韦，这样搞是不行的，没人买它帐啊
//借钱的最高境界就是不还
【在 D*****a 的大作中提到】
: Did they ever default?
| b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 15 I don't agree with you. Default is not good, however indebt forever is the
same. Only fools think indebt forever is better than default unless u can
sell ur holding to other investors.
It's obvious than it became harder for US to find potential buyers for their
debt and the trend will continue.
Btw, I am a big fan of Russia investing and holding high stake in that
country. I believe their mkt will become more and more interesting to
investors.
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】
: "美国：最讨厌你们这些Default的(比如俄罗斯),一点技术含量都没有"
: Default这么伤人品，又没有技术含量的事，美国不会干的，
: 要得就是大家对它前景的Illusion,如果Default了，不摆明说，我不行了。
: (看俄罗斯，坏了人品，伤了元气，没人敢进去投资了）
: Think out of the box, 不能以新债抵旧债啊？这也是它正在做的。
: 这样可以永远欠债，只要有人肯买帐,这点很重要，
: 换一个国家，比如津巴布韦，这样搞是不行的，没人买它帐啊
: //借钱的最高境界就是不还
| D*****a
发帖数: 2847 | 16 Why stop there? Why do you think the US can raise money
forever by Ponzi scheme?
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】
: "美国：最讨厌你们这些Default的(比如俄罗斯),一点技术含量都没有"
: Default这么伤人品，又没有技术含量的事，美国不会干的，
: 要得就是大家对它前景的Illusion,如果Default了，不摆明说，我不行了。
: (看俄罗斯，坏了人品，伤了元气，没人敢进去投资了）
: Think out of the box, 不能以新债抵旧债啊？这也是它正在做的。
: 这样可以永远欠债，只要有人肯买帐,这点很重要，
: 换一个国家，比如津巴布韦，这样搞是不行的，没人买它帐啊
: //借钱的最高境界就是不还
| w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 17 You are right,it definetly will not last forever，but at least, it will not
be now, it may take at least another 20-30 years. From trading/investing
purspestive, I only worry what I CAN worry,like the market is strong/weak.
How US handle its debt,it's not something I can control, so, I neverworry
about that. The bottom line is, think, but don't overthink | s********h
发帖数: 158 | 18 there are fundamental differences btwn the 1940s and now: back then, the
indebtedness was planned; factories in this country were in full production
mode in support of the war; there was near full employment and talents from
other countries were flowing into the u.s.; u.s. had huge surplus in exports
; the country was emerging as a (if not the most) dominating nation in the
world; USD did not have the reserve currency status. as soon as the war
ended, the debt level went on to decrease for the
【在 s*******d 的大作中提到】
: In the 1940's, the US national debt is 120% of the GDP, and now it is about
: 80%. I guess we are really not in uncharted territory.
: Think of it this way, even if the US defaults on its debt and reissues new
: currency and new bonds, it would still be the most trustworthy currency/
: bonds in the world - which other country do you think can issue more credit-
: worthy debts? England, EU, Russia, Japan, China? I seriously doubt it.
: Also, if every country in the world now is printing money and issusing de
|
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