s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 1 The top might have passed. Whatever you do, don't buy dip.
I am not sure if it can be pulled up back to 1070 or not in the next
week, but I think a major correction is finally here.
If it is what I think it is, 950 is an easy target, and we might be
looking at 900. Cannot predict what will happen after that though. |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 No, not really. That's why 1. I cannot say for sure. and 2. I don't know
yet what will happen after the correction. If the bond market turns bad,
we'll be looking at much lower point. |
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 3 老大， 入 25% SPY950， 另外25% 900.
I hope that this is a major pullback. Bond market performs much better than
stock market last week. So market is not in a risk of major failure.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: The top might have passed. Whatever you do, don't buy dip.
: I am not sure if it can be pulled up back to 1070 or not in the next
: week, but I think a major correction is finally here.
: If it is what I think it is, 950 is an easy target, and we might be
: looking at 900. Cannot predict what will happen after that though.
|
h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 4 bond market and stock market dont' crash at the same time frame,
in late 80', after the bond crash, stock reached a climax run to new high,
before a final crash.
than
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 老大， 入 25% SPY950， 另外25% 900.
: I hope that this is a major pullback. Bond market performs much better than
: stock market last week. So market is not in a risk of major failure.
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 5 I means stock market won't crash without bond market crashing. Stock market
always follows bond market.
【在 h****h 的大作中提到】
: bond market and stock market dont' crash at the same time frame,
: in late 80', after the bond crash, stock reached a climax run to new high,
: before a final crash.
:
: than
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 6 I means stock market won't crash without bond market crashing. Stock market
always follows bond market.
【在 h****h 的大作中提到】
: bond market and stock market dont' crash at the same time frame,
: in late 80', after the bond crash, stock reached a climax run to new high,
: before a final crash.
:
: than
|
h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 7 there's no always.
last oct crash is not ofcs.
market
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: I means stock market won't crash without bond market crashing. Stock market
: always follows bond market.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 8 What do you think if positive earning suprise comes off in 3Qtr again?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: The top might have passed. Whatever you do, don't buy dip.
: I am not sure if it can be pulled up back to 1070 or not in the next
: week, but I think a major correction is finally here.
: If it is what I think it is, 950 is an easy target, and we might be
: looking at 900. Cannot predict what will happen after that though.
|
o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 9 nothing major happened last week, except PE ratio crossing above high level.
It means stock is "expensive" valued by some fundamental shops, but stock
can be
much more expensive before it corrected itself in the history.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: The top might have passed. Whatever you do, don't buy dip.
: I am not sure if it can be pulled up back to 1070 or not in the next
: week, but I think a major correction is finally here.
: If it is what I think it is, 950 is an easy target, and we might be
: looking at 900. Cannot predict what will happen after that though.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 10 What you said is true. But the market sentiment seems to be changed.
level.
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: nothing major happened last week, except PE ratio crossing above high level.
: It means stock is "expensive" valued by some fundamental shops, but stock
: can be
: much more expensive before it corrected itself in the history.
|
|
|
o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 11 what did you see the sentiment change? mitbbs stock board? @@
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: What you said is true. But the market sentiment seems to be changed.
:
: level.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 12 I rarely visited stock board. That's my personal observation from the global
market (not just the U.S.)
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: what did you see the sentiment change? mitbbs stock board? @@
|
a***x
发帖数: 26368 | 13 这儿怎么还没和死刀客合并？
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: The top might have passed. Whatever you do, don't buy dip.
: I am not sure if it can be pulled up back to 1070 or not in the next
: week, but I think a major correction is finally here.
: If it is what I think it is, 950 is an easy target, and we might be
: looking at 900. Cannot predict what will happen after that though.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 14 If you come more often, you'll see this board is totally different
from stock board.
【在 a***x 的大作中提到】
: 这儿怎么还没和死刀客合并？
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 15 I don't even look at PE... because the E is just as unpredictable as P.
And no matter the P is reasonable or not, at least it's real. On the
other hand, the E may not even be real ...
level.
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: nothing major happened last week, except PE ratio crossing above high level.
: It means stock is "expensive" valued by some fundamental shops, but stock
: can be
: much more expensive before it corrected itself in the history.
|
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | 16 这个版的人比较正常，隔壁的像疯人院，怎么可能合并 |
a***x
发帖数: 26368 | 17 really?!
，还露着小GG…"
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 这个版的人比较正常，隔壁的像疯人院，怎么可能合并
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 18 有一点我一直困惑着。难道中国的正常人和疯人院出来的人比例就像两个板在线人数比
例显示的那样吗？
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 这个版的人比较正常，隔壁的像疯人院，怎么可能合并
|
o******8
发帖数: 620 | 19 好像不好这样说Stocks版的朋友，那里浮躁一些（正面地说是充满激情地
热炒和灌水）。所以热闹很多，人也多一些。
相信来这里的人还是很多的，读一下各位的分析，都回家思考去了。
板在线人数比
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 有一点我一直困惑着。难道中国的正常人和疯人院出来的人比例就像两个板在线人数比
: 例显示的那样吗？
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 20
我至今还没见过这个板在线人数超过40位。
【在 o******8 的大作中提到】
: 好像不好这样说Stocks版的朋友，那里浮躁一些（正面地说是充满激情地
: 热炒和灌水）。所以热闹很多，人也多一些。
: 相信来这里的人还是很多的，读一下各位的分析，都回家思考去了。
:
: 板在线人数比
|
|
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 21 People don't have to come to this board every single day, because we don't
work on daily movement. And there are definitely times when 在线人数超过40位.
I think the best part for this board is that people don't get excited
here, which is good for our account.
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
:
: 我至今还没见过这个板在线人数超过40位。
|
o******8
发帖数: 620 | 22 Agreed.
Or think of it this way: the service time of this board is 30 minutes and
frequency is every 15 days. The service time of Stock board is 120 minutes
and frequency is every day. This board will be helping out more people than
Stock board as long as it has no less than 1/60 of the # of visitors to
Stock board.
The numbers may differ, but the math remains. |
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 23 so today, with the rise, is a good time to sell and get cash?
will the coming correction change the mid-term trend of gld/gdx?
thanks!
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: The top might have passed. Whatever you do, don't buy dip.
: I am not sure if it can be pulled up back to 1070 or not in the next
: week, but I think a major correction is finally here.
: If it is what I think it is, 950 is an easy target, and we might be
: looking at 900. Cannot predict what will happen after that though.
|
i*****h
发帖数: 169 | 24 Co-ask.
From what I read, money was steadily flowing from money market to stock and
other investment vehicles since March 2009 till now. If the stock market
corrects itself soon, will cash increases after selling? If so, will gold or
other investment items break out earlier and stronger because investors
look for other places to put their cash into work?
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: so today, with the rise, is a good time to sell and get cash?
: will the coming correction change the mid-term trend of gld/gdx?
: thanks!
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 25 It's hard to say at this stage.
Usually the answer should be treasury bonds. But given the fact that 50%
of treasuries and 80% of MBS were actually bought by the Fed in the last
few months, we just cann't tell how strong or how weak the bond market
can be. That yields a huge uncertain about all other asset types.
At this stage there is not much to say but to watch. Commodities are
very weak recently. That's one of the reasons I think a correction is
coming.
and
or
【在 i*****h 的大作中提到】
: Co-ask.
: From what I read, money was steadily flowing from money market to stock and
: other investment vehicles since March 2009 till now. If the stock market
: corrects itself soon, will cash increases after selling? If so, will gold or
: other investment items break out earlier and stronger because investors
: look for other places to put their cash into work?
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 26 One of these days this "jobless" recovery will turn into a "recovery-less"
recovery and Wall St. blind optimism will have to meet Main St. reality,
and then the 2nd leg of this collapse will erupt.
The only thing to prop it up is an outright Dollar crash that gets even
the junkiest stock soaring but that likelihood is low for now. I'd say
there's a 90% of chance market crashing past March low, 10% for it to
maintain its current level b/c of a coming mass inflation. Either way,
US economy is dead |
i*****h
发帖数: 169 | 27 Thx!
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: It's hard to say at this stage.
: Usually the answer should be treasury bonds. But given the fact that 50%
: of treasuries and 80% of MBS were actually bought by the Fed in the last
: few months, we just cann't tell how strong or how weak the bond market
: can be. That yields a huge uncertain about all other asset types.
: At this stage there is not much to say but to watch. Commodities are
: very weak recently. That's one of the reasons I think a correction is
: coming.
:
: and
|
i*****h
发帖数: 169 | 28 I like this board because opinions are well said and well taken in a
rational way. More important, I am learning a lot and getting benefits from
it.
Is there a relationship between 'Stock market' and 'Economy'? Most time, I
think there is a positivle relationship with a time shift. I still have a
high hope on economy(don't laugh at me) even though I like to see that the
stock market corrects a lot more. Because I do see a lot of great co-
operation during daily work life. In a broader scope, I d |
l******n
发帖数: 641 | 29 not even 1% of new high of spx 15xx?
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: One of these days this "jobless" recovery will turn into a "recovery-less"
: recovery and Wall St. blind optimism will have to meet Main St. reality,
: and then the 2nd leg of this collapse will erupt.
: The only thing to prop it up is an outright Dollar crash that gets even
: the junkiest stock soaring but that likelihood is low for now. I'd say
: there's a 90% of chance market crashing past March low, 10% for it to
: maintain its current level b/c of a coming mass inflation. Either way,
: US economy is dead
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 30 3Q should be all right.
But I don't predict their ER. Rather, I'll look at the market reaction.
If market sells on good ER, I will sell for mid-term.
If market goes up on good ER, I will buy for short-term.
If market sells on bad ER, I will sell for mid-term.
If market goes up on bad ER, I will buy for mid-term.
No matter AAPL is good or bad, I am gonna short it the day after its ER.
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: What do you think if positive earning suprise comes off in 3Qtr again?
|
|
|
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | 31 老大跟jobs有仇？
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 3Q should be all right.
: But I don't predict their ER. Rather, I'll look at the market reaction.
: If market sells on good ER, I will sell for mid-term.
: If market goes up on good ER, I will buy for short-term.
: If market sells on bad ER, I will sell for mid-term.
: If market goes up on bad ER, I will buy for mid-term.
: No matter AAPL is good or bad, I am gonna short it the day after its ER.
|
o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 32 Commodities are not weak IMHO. metals, softs, industrials and energy
subgroups are doing fine. only grains and meats are lagging. u may blame
those Midwest farmers. it has nothing to do with the global economy.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: It's hard to say at this stage.
: Usually the answer should be treasury bonds. But given the fact that 50%
: of treasuries and 80% of MBS were actually bought by the Fed in the last
: few months, we just cann't tell how strong or how weak the bond market
: can be. That yields a huge uncertain about all other asset types.
: At this stage there is not much to say but to watch. Commodities are
: very weak recently. That's one of the reasons I think a correction is
: coming.
:
: and
|
p********t
发帖数: 1219 | 33 I also feel that a major pull back is coming, starting as early as this week.
I plan to buy a house early next year, and give up all fund operation. Is it
a good timing? I'll do it anyway even it is not a good timing though.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: The top might have passed. Whatever you do, don't buy dip.
: I am not sure if it can be pulled up back to 1070 or not in the next
: week, but I think a major correction is finally here.
: If it is what I think it is, 950 is an easy target, and we might be
: looking at 900. Cannot predict what will happen after that though.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 34 老大这次是不是又猜对了？@_@
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: The top might have passed. Whatever you do, don't buy dip.
: I am not sure if it can be pulled up back to 1070 or not in the next
: week, but I think a major correction is finally here.
: If it is what I think it is, 950 is an easy target, and we might be
: looking at 900. Cannot predict what will happen after that though.
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | |
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 36 The stock market looks exceptionally strong even after today's bad job report.
Consumer spending is dead. Manufacturing is dead. So unlike 1930s, when US can rely on manufacturing and export to pull itself out of the Great Depression, there seems to be nothing there to rescue the US economy. And FED is preparing to wind down the stimulus.
Yet, the stock market refused to crash and the bond yield just kept getting lower. The US companies are helped by cost-cutting in the previous few quarters but
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: The top might have passed. Whatever you do, don't buy dip.
: I am not sure if it can be pulled up back to 1070 or not in the next
: week, but I think a major correction is finally here.
: If it is what I think it is, 950 is an easy target, and we might be
: looking at 900. Cannot predict what will happen after that though.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 37 Warning!!!
CDS spread start to ptick up already!!!
report.
can rely on manufacturing and export to pull itself out of the Great
Depression, there seems to be nothing there to rescue the US economy. And
FED is preparing to wind down the stimulus.
getting lower. The US companies are helped by cost-cutting in the previous
few quarters but now they may be helped by the exceptional low yields on
corporate bonds in the near future. Many are issuing bonds at low rate and
getting themselves a perfect b
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: The stock market looks exceptionally strong even after today's bad job report.
: Consumer spending is dead. Manufacturing is dead. So unlike 1930s, when US can rely on manufacturing and export to pull itself out of the Great Depression, there seems to be nothing there to rescue the US economy. And FED is preparing to wind down the stimulus.
: Yet, the stock market refused to crash and the bond yield just kept getting lower. The US companies are helped by cost-cutting in the previous few quarters but
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 38 Since stockdemon's prediction on 9/27, the market has gone up
and down and eventually back to almost exactly the same location.
So what's the direction now? @_@
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 老大这次是不是又猜对了？@_@
|
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 39 a perfect brownian movement?
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Since stockdemon's prediction on 9/27, the market has gone up
: and down and eventually back to almost exactly the same location.
: So what's the direction now? @_@
|
a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 40 en
不知道老大是不是还是坚持原来的观点
感觉又要突破了
nnd
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Since stockdemon's prediction on 9/27, the market has gone up
: and down and eventually back to almost exactly the same location.
: So what's the direction now? @_@
|
|
|
r****y
发帖数: 3412 | 41 correction难道就这么完了..
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 老大这次是不是又猜对了？@_@
|
G******t
发帖数: 1782 | 42 貌似如此，澳洲加息了，牛市信号啊。
【在 r****y 的大作中提到】
: correction难道就这么完了..
|
s******y
发帖数: 15 | 43 老大，现在怎么看?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: The top might have passed. Whatever you do, don't buy dip.
: I am not sure if it can be pulled up back to 1070 or not in the next
: week, but I think a major correction is finally here.
: If it is what I think it is, 950 is an easy target, and we might be
: looking at 900. Cannot predict what will happen after that though.
|
t*******n
发帖数: 446 | |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 45 As I said, watch how market reacts to ER, particularly to revenue but not
profit. And watch the garbage dollar ...
【在 s******y 的大作中提到】
: 老大，现在怎么看?
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 46 If dollar is garbage, pls deliver to me. LOL
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: As I said, watch how market reacts to ER, particularly to revenue but not
: profit. And watch the garbage dollar ...
|
o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 47 surprisely, Ted spread starts to pick up although still at a low level.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: As I said, watch how market reacts to ER, particularly to revenue but not
: profit. And watch the garbage dollar ...
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 48 Banks are scared for some reason. Look at the excess reserve growth:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCRESNS
That's why there are no inflation risks in near term.
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: surprisely, Ted spread starts to pick up although still at a low level.
|
u**o
发帖数: 4652 | 49 How about now?
buy for mid-term?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 3Q should be all right.
: But I don't predict their ER. Rather, I'll look at the market reaction.
: If market sells on good ER, I will sell for mid-term.
: If market goes up on good ER, I will buy for short-term.
: If market sells on bad ER, I will sell for mid-term.
: If market goes up on bad ER, I will buy for mid-term.
: No matter AAPL is good or bad, I am gonna short it the day after its ER.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 50 Dont give him too much pressure. :)
【在 u**o 的大作中提到】
: How about now?
: buy for mid-term?
|
|
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 51 nod. nod. 俺又不是股神，哪能啥时都能预测。
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: Dont give him too much pressure. :)
|
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 52 I think the top reached, and the pull back is coming. |
u**o
发帖数: 4652 | 53 但至少分享下，大家也好聊聊嘛
现在股票确实不便宜了
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: nod. nod. 俺又不是股神，哪能啥时都能预测。
|
u*****n
发帖数: 160 | 54 Hi stockdemon,
Admired your call for quite a while. Would you care to elaborate a bit how
you get to the feeling/conclusion of topping? Thanks! |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 55 唉，上次那个 topping 显然喊早了，喊完之后又见了新高...
现在不知道是真的不知道，只能说市场现在处在一个很不稳定的状态。上窜 1200，下
跳 900 都不是什么不可能的事。一定要问我，我就说现在最好的状态是现金，等待
trigger。什么样的 trigger？天知道。You'll know when and only when it comes.
其实美国胡搞也就罢了，我最不明白的是中国为啥不让 RMB 继续升值，现在中国就是
world imbalance 的核心。RMB 不升值，问题永远也解决不了。也许这一天快到了，希
望吧，否则领导人缺乏远见啊 ...
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: Hi stockdemon,
: Admired your call for quite a while. Would you care to elaborate a bit how
: you get to the feeling/conclusion of topping? Thanks!
|
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 56 the bottom of this year will be about 900.
【在 s***w 的大作中提到】
: I think the top reached, and the pull back is coming.
|
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 57 why RMB should 继续升值？
是
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 唉，上次那个 topping 显然喊早了，喊完之后又见了新高...
: 现在不知道是真的不知道，只能说市场现在处在一个很不稳定的状态。上窜 1200，下
: 跳 900 都不是什么不可能的事。一定要问我，我就说现在最好的状态是现金，等待
: trigger。什么样的 trigger？天知道。You'll know when and only when it comes.
: 其实美国胡搞也就罢了，我最不明白的是中国为啥不让 RMB 继续升值，现在中国就是
: world imbalance 的核心。RMB 不升值，问题永远也解决不了。也许这一天快到了，希
: 望吧，否则领导人缺乏远见啊 ...
|
