m******t
发帖数: 165 | 1 通常的供需价格调节关系不work了。当一个东西供需有点失衡，供小于求时，价格会上
升，抑制需求，提高供给。但在一个投机社会，价格上升不但不会抑制需求，反而会引
来投机，造成需求越来越大，价格越来越高，并持续恒久，资本市场本来应该是调节和
有效配置资源的，也被投机扭曲，不但不能有效配置资源，反而变成政府和投机金融大
亨掠夺大众的工具。一个接着一个的泡末。投资变得很危险，你的辛辛苦苦缵的钱很大
的几率会泡末wipe out. 这几十年来，资本市场是个巨大的泡末。如果不能改革金融，
抑制投机，投资 is a dream |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 资本市场上百年来都是这样的 ...
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 通常的供需价格调节关系不work了。当一个东西供需有点失衡，供小于求时，价格会上
: 升，抑制需求，提高供给。但在一个投机社会，价格上升不但不会抑制需求，反而会引
: 来投机，造成需求越来越大，价格越来越高，并持续恒久，资本市场本来应该是调节和
: 有效配置资源的，也被投机扭曲，不但不能有效配置资源，反而变成政府和投机金融大
: 亨掠夺大众的工具。一个接着一个的泡末。投资变得很危险，你的辛辛苦苦缵的钱很大
: 的几率会泡末wipe out. 这几十年来，资本市场是个巨大的泡末。如果不能改革金融，
: 抑制投机，投资 is a dream
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 3 投机的人越多,不是越适合投资么? (因为投机导致价格脱离价值)
我觉得只有两个事情的发生会导致投资很危险:
1. 投资的人越多,Efficient Market的理想终于实现了.
2. 企业进化的速度越来越快,预测未来盈利同看以前的彩票数字预测下次开奖的号码一
样难.
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 通常的供需价格调节关系不work了。当一个东西供需有点失衡，供小于求时，价格会上
: 升，抑制需求，提高供给。但在一个投机社会，价格上升不但不会抑制需求，反而会引
: 来投机，造成需求越来越大，价格越来越高，并持续恒久，资本市场本来应该是调节和
: 有效配置资源的，也被投机扭曲，不但不能有效配置资源，反而变成政府和投机金融大
: 亨掠夺大众的工具。一个接着一个的泡末。投资变得很危险，你的辛辛苦苦缵的钱很大
: 的几率会泡末wipe out. 这几十年来，资本市场是个巨大的泡末。如果不能改革金融，
: 抑制投机，投资 is a dream
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 4 投资最常见于投机失败死捂安慰自己的时候。
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 通常的供需价格调节关系不work了。当一个东西供需有点失衡，供小于求时，价格会上
: 升，抑制需求，提高供给。但在一个投机社会，价格上升不但不会抑制需求，反而会引
: 来投机，造成需求越来越大，价格越来越高，并持续恒久，资本市场本来应该是调节和
: 有效配置资源的，也被投机扭曲，不但不能有效配置资源，反而变成政府和投机金融大
: 亨掠夺大众的工具。一个接着一个的泡末。投资变得很危险，你的辛辛苦苦缵的钱很大
: 的几率会泡末wipe out. 这几十年来，资本市场是个巨大的泡末。如果不能改革金融，
: 抑制投机，投资 is a dream
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 5 投资 vs. 投机 -- what's the fundamental difference? |
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 6 投机的人越多,不是越适合投资么? (因为投机导致价格脱离价值) |
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 7 One takes advantage of the alpha (yield), one takes advantage of the
beta (volatility).
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】
: 投资 vs. 投机 -- what's the fundamental difference?
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 8 偶持相反观点。
1) 偶认为投资的人(indexer)越多，市场就越不efficient.
2) 偶认为价格越脱离价值，就越不适合投资(indexing)，甚至包括价格
低于价值的情况（此种情况下投机仍有很大可能可以beat indexing).
当然，偶这里的indexer指的是盲目DCA的铁杆indexer.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 投机的人越多,不是越适合投资么? (因为投机导致价格脱离价值)
: 我觉得只有两个事情的发生会导致投资很危险:
: 1. 投资的人越多,Efficient Market的理想终于实现了.
: 2. 企业进化的速度越来越快,预测未来盈利同看以前的彩票数字预测下次开奖的号码一
: 样难.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 9 That only happens to newbie who knows neither speculation nor investment.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 投资最常见于投机失败死捂安慰自己的时候。
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 10 not sure about your definition of alpha and beta. But regardless whether you
are betting on idosyncratic (alpha) or systematic (beta) factors, it is
forsaking your current wealth with certainty for uncertain future gains (
loss) -- not much differnt from gambling.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: One takes advantage of the alpha (yield), one takes advantage of the
: beta (volatility).
|
|
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 11 In that sense, your whole life is gambling. Every step you make is based
on a prediction that some consequence will follow. Yet you don't know it
for sure. You make decison based on your best knowledge. You give up what
you have in your life hoping to make your life better. Sometimes you does
get what you want but sometimes you end up lossing more.
you
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】
: not sure about your definition of alpha and beta. But regardless whether you
: are betting on idosyncratic (alpha) or systematic (beta) factors, it is
: forsaking your current wealth with certainty for uncertain future gains (
: loss) -- not much differnt from gambling.
|
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 12 bubbles in recent years are much too big, too long, too frequent. look at
the SP500, house price curves in history. all are huge bubbles. and still
bubbles now even with the recent crash.
I start to invest my spare money from 2003, I believed investment would give
me positive return better than interest return in long term, I do not care
about fluctuation in stock market, alway buy and hold, but now after 7 years
, when I check my investment accout, total money (including dividens) has
negative
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 资本市场上百年来都是这样的 ...
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 13 well, there is never a guaranteed return, no matter how long your time scale
is. You cannot say the market changed just because you lost money ... there
are too many times in the last hundreds years that people lost more than
30% on 7-yr scale.
give
care
years
I
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: bubbles in recent years are much too big, too long, too frequent. look at
: the SP500, house price curves in history. all are huge bubbles. and still
: bubbles now even with the recent crash.
: I start to invest my spare money from 2003, I believed investment would give
: me positive return better than interest return in long term, I do not care
: about fluctuation in stock market, alway buy and hold, but now after 7 years
: , when I check my investment accout, total money (including dividens) has
: negative
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 14 sorry to hear that but there is NO guarantee that stock return will beat
risk-free rate regardless how long you hold your stocks. Your odds will
improve as the investment horizon increases but the chance of losing money
always exists.
There is no free lunch in the market, except for diversification &
rebalancing. The market is not efficient when it comes to fair pricing
across asset classes so asset bubbles of one kind or another (stock/bond/
real estate/gold and the latest, garlic) will always
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: bubbles in recent years are much too big, too long, too frequent. look at
: the SP500, house price curves in history. all are huge bubbles. and still
: bubbles now even with the recent crash.
: I start to invest my spare money from 2003, I believed investment would give
: me positive return better than interest return in long term, I do not care
: about fluctuation in stock market, alway buy and hold, but now after 7 years
: , when I check my investment accout, total money (including dividens) has
: negative
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 15 这和买房自住一个心态。涨了夸自己眼光好，跌了也没事，自己住。。。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 投资最常见于投机失败死捂安慰自己的时候。
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 16 exactly..so there is no fundamental difference between 投机 and 投资... some
prefer blackjack, others prefer majong.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: In that sense, your whole life is gambling. Every step you make is based
: on a prediction that some consequence will follow. Yet you don't know it
: for sure. You make decison based on your best knowledge. You give up what
: you have in your life hoping to make your life better. Sometimes you does
: get what you want but sometimes you end up lossing more.
:
: you
|
m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 17
some
But...but...but... fundamentality is subjective!
...and subjectivity is objective!
//duck
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】
: exactly..so there is no fundamental difference between 投机 and 投资... some
: prefer blackjack, others prefer majong.
|
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 18
if so, why people chose high risk option. I learned from all kinds of
readings that the stock market has high risk, but it is rewarded with return
better than interest rate in a long term since the word is alway advancing
up. this was approved by history. this may not be true right now. the world
nature resource is being exhausted up, the world population is saturating
and aging. the production yield is smaller and smaller, and people turns
into speculation more and nmore. with extrem high and
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】
: sorry to hear that but there is NO guarantee that stock return will beat
: risk-free rate regardless how long you hold your stocks. Your odds will
: improve as the investment horizon increases but the chance of losing money
: always exists.
: There is no free lunch in the market, except for diversification &
: rebalancing. The market is not efficient when it comes to fair pricing
: across asset classes so asset bubbles of one kind or another (stock/bond/
: real estate/gold and the latest, garlic) will always
|
d*****z
发帖数: 114 | 19 Hi, it is true that stock has a higher return than bond or inflation in the
long run. What people say is this can not be guaranteed in a fixed 5 or 10-
year period. But when the time frame increases, the possibility that stock
underperforms bond/inflation turns smaller.
The world is always changing, not ending. In every age, people say it is
different this time. Think of the Great Depression in 30s, World War in 40s,
nulear war threat in 50s, Vietnam War and society caos in 60s, oil crisis
and h
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
:
: if so, why people chose high risk option. I learned from all kinds of
: readings that the stock market has high risk, but it is rewarded with return
: better than interest rate in a long term since the word is alway advancing
: up. this was approved by history. this may not be true right now. the world
: nature resource is being exhausted up, the world population is saturating
: and aging. the production yield is smaller and smaller, and people turns
: into speculation more and nmore. with extrem high and
|
P********e
发帖数: 2610 | 20 http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/55618810.html
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】
: 投资 vs. 投机 -- what's the fundamental difference?
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 21 看准有发展潜力的题材
在低谷时入场投资，持有到投机者入场再RIDE一段直到自己心跳无法承受
当然这是最理想的情况。。。
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 通常的供需价格调节关系不work了。当一个东西供需有点失衡，供小于求时，价格会上
: 升，抑制需求，提高供给。但在一个投机社会，价格上升不但不会抑制需求，反而会引
: 来投机，造成需求越来越大，价格越来越高，并持续恒久，资本市场本来应该是调节和
: 有效配置资源的，也被投机扭曲，不但不能有效配置资源，反而变成政府和投机金融大
: 亨掠夺大众的工具。一个接着一个的泡末。投资变得很危险，你的辛辛苦苦缵的钱很大
: 的几率会泡末wipe out. 这几十年来，资本市场是个巨大的泡末。如果不能改革金融，
: 抑制投机，投资 is a dream
|
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 22 还是timing market。 如果我有本事time market right. 我都不用上班了
除非你有内部消息或能操纵市场，99。9%的人都不可能。
也许我应该平时只存高利息存款帐号。只有等到市场有个特大的crash时，才入场投资
，这种机会一生也不多。并应用加倍投资法，当市场跌20%时，投12%的存款，如果市场
再跌20%， 加倍投24%的存款，如果市场再跌20%，加倍投48%的存款。如果市场再跌，
。。。
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: 看准有发展潜力的题材
: 在低谷时入场投资，持有到投机者入场再RIDE一段直到自己心跳无法承受
: 当然这是最理想的情况。。。
|
