j**********e 发帖数: 442 | 1 我今天把S&P500从1950年1月1日的daily return排了个序,结果看到1987年十月到十一
月间,两个月就有五天进入前40名大跌榜(60年一共15,000多个交易日)。我接着又算了一下1987年的年度收益率,结
果居然是7.51%。可见1987年10月和11月卖掉股票的熊们傻了吧。以史为鉴,我决定长
期持有。
排名 日期 日收益率 星期几
1. 19 oct1987 -.20466926 1 |
5. | 26oct1987 -.08278946 1 |
22. | 16oct1987 -.05159689 5 |
35. | 30nov1987 -.04177415 1 |
40. | 22oct1987 -.03920582 4 | s********n 发帖数: 1962 | 2 上次彩票中奖号码是 1234567,上次没写 1234567 的彩民们都傻了。
我要以史为鉴,下次买彩票就写 1234567.
算了一下1987年的年度收益率,结
【在 j**********e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我今天把S&P500从1950年1月1日的daily return排了个序,结果看到1987年十月到十一 : 月间,两个月就有五天进入前40名大跌榜(60年一共15,000多个交易日)。我接着又算了一下1987年的年度收益率,结 : 果居然是7.51%。可见1987年10月和11月卖掉股票的熊们傻了吧。以史为鉴,我决定长 : 期持有。 : 排名 日期 日收益率 星期几 : 1. 19 oct1987 -.20466926 1 | : 5. | 26oct1987 -.08278946 1 | : 22. | 16oct1987 -.05159689 5 | : 35. | 30nov1987 -.04177415 1 | : 40. | 22oct1987 -.03920582 4
| j**********e 发帖数: 442 | 3 我只不过举个例子,看了个极端个案而已(主要是因为1987年的10月19日太令人震撼了,所以我看看在这前后发生了什么事)。
最近在重读《Fooled by randomness》,《Random Walk Down Wall Street》和《Stocks for the long run》。刚刚订了刚出的《Black Swan》第二版。
请各位高手也推荐点好书让我学习学习?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 上次彩票中奖号码是 1234567,上次没写 1234567 的彩民们都傻了。 : 我要以史为鉴,下次买彩票就写 1234567. : : 算了一下1987年的年度收益率,结
| h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 4 Try this one, free shipping:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290441757930
了,所以我看看在这前后发生了什么事)。
Stocks for the long run》。刚刚订了刚出的《Black Swan》第二版。
【在 j**********e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我只不过举个例子,看了个极端个案而已(主要是因为1987年的10月19日太令人震撼了,所以我看看在这前后发生了什么事)。 : 最近在重读《Fooled by randomness》,《Random Walk Down Wall Street》和《Stocks for the long run》。刚刚订了刚出的《Black Swan》第二版。 : 请各位高手也推荐点好书让我学习学习?
| K****D 发帖数: 30533 | 5 How do they ship this? @_@
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Try this one, free shipping: : http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290441757930 : : 了,所以我看看在这前后发生了什么事)。 : Stocks for the long run》。刚刚订了刚出的《Black Swan》第二版。
| j**********e 发帖数: 442 | 6 They will ship a hamburger with Buffet's autograph and his Skype username so that you can have a video conference with him while having lunch (hamburger)...
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : How do they ship this? @_@
| f*****b 发帖数: 1649 | 7 LOL
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 上次彩票中奖号码是 1234567,上次没写 1234567 的彩民们都傻了。 : 我要以史为鉴,下次买彩票就写 1234567. : : 算了一下1987年的年度收益率,结
| f*****b 发帖数: 1649 | 8 burger with ketchup autograph on top...
so that you can have a video conference with him while having lunch (
hamburger)...
【在 j**********e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : They will ship a hamburger with Buffet's autograph and his Skype username so that you can have a video conference with him while having lunch (hamburger)...
| h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 9 Taleb的书是近年来难得的好书. 最突出的是名字起的好,black swan,多通俗易懂便于
流传啊. 这在畅销书作家中是个共同点,什么long tail啦,butterfly effect啦,the
world is flat啦. 用一个词概括所有内容,是一件很不容易的事情.
在思想上,这书的最重要的贡献,按Taleb自己的话是"teasing people who take
themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously and those who
don’t have the guts to sometimes say: 'I don’t know...."
我觉得金融经济的学术界在过去几十年来,确实走了弯路. 从efficient market theory
到portofolio management,从game theory到VAR/real option pricing,都是数学上非
常严谨,跟现实完全没有关系. 连Volker都说,金融界这些年唯一有价值的发明就只是
ATM机了. 2008年危机, | b****e 发帖数: 460 | 10 好的观点也得多说几遍,给人以思考的空间。就像佛虽是悟到的,也得在当一天和尚撞
一天钟里面悟到的。
theory
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Taleb的书是近年来难得的好书. 最突出的是名字起的好,black swan,多通俗易懂便于 : 流传啊. 这在畅销书作家中是个共同点,什么long tail啦,butterfly effect啦,the : world is flat啦. 用一个词概括所有内容,是一件很不容易的事情. : 在思想上,这书的最重要的贡献,按Taleb自己的话是"teasing people who take : themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously and those who : don’t have the guts to sometimes say: 'I don’t know...." : 我觉得金融经济的学术界在过去几十年来,确实走了弯路. 从efficient market theory : 到portofolio management,从game theory到VAR/real option pricing,都是数学上非 : 常严谨,跟现实完全没有关系. 连Volker都说,金融界这些年唯一有价值的发明就只是 : ATM机了. 2008年危机,
| | | s********n 发帖数: 1962 | 11 作者不是那个意思。作者的意思是:金融模型中的小概率事件在现实中出现的概率远大
于模型中所描述的,而这些小概率事件的破坏力非常大。这些黑天鹅破坏力超出想象的
原因恰恰是因为 people are not prepared for them at all. 换句话说,作者只是想
告诉读者:Black swan is not in that far tail of model, it does exist,and it
can be about live or die, be prepared for it!
, | N******r 发帖数: 642 | 12 taleb is so egotistical
ditto cangtian | m**********r 发帖数: 887 | 13 I wonder if anyone on this board did NOT read "Black Swan" ? | h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 14 原来你没有读过凯恩斯呀.
什么"搬出凯恩斯能说明什么?有什么用?没有任何指导性". 事实上,08年经济衰退了,
通缩了. 按理,既然有几十年这么先进的金融模型的发展,高深的数学概率论统计方法,
应该能搬出来有应付的对策呀,可以有"指导性"呀. 结果,一看模型,模型说根本不可能
发生,或者照Goldman的model是25个standard deviations, 概率为0.000...0006,六前
面138个零. 自然没有人研究过这种不会发生的现象,所以没有任何模型可用. 最后,仍
然要回到没有模型的凯恩斯,美国政府和全球政府后来采用的government stimulus
plan就是凯恩斯,QE也是他的理论的变形. 虽然,到底要多大的政府刺激才有用,没人知
道,只能"大概的估计",但总比定量到138个零的模型好.
It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, 很可惜,这也是凯恩斯的
话.
, | K****D 发帖数: 30533 | 15 ... //blush
【在 m**********r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I wonder if anyone on this board did NOT read "Black Swan" ?
| d*****z 发帖数: 114 | 16 Black swan是难得一见的好书,非常引人思考。我觉得比fooled by randomness好的多。
distribution | b****e 发帖数: 460 | 17 你也蹦出来了,看来大整还是有吸引力的。
多。
【在 d*****z 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Black swan是难得一见的好书,非常引人思考。我觉得比fooled by randomness好的多。 : : distribution
| b****e 发帖数: 460 | 18 同性恋万岁!
了,
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 原来你没有读过凯恩斯呀. : 什么"搬出凯恩斯能说明什么?有什么用?没有任何指导性". 事实上,08年经济衰退了, : 通缩了. 按理,既然有几十年这么先进的金融模型的发展,高深的数学概率论统计方法, : 应该能搬出来有应付的对策呀,可以有"指导性"呀. 结果,一看模型,模型说根本不可能 : 发生,或者照Goldman的model是25个standard deviations, 概率为0.000...0006,六前 : 面138个零. 自然没有人研究过这种不会发生的现象,所以没有任何模型可用. 最后,仍 : 然要回到没有模型的凯恩斯,美国政府和全球政府后来采用的government stimulus : plan就是凯恩斯,QE也是他的理论的变形. 虽然,到底要多大的政府刺激才有用,没人知 : 道,只能"大概的估计",但总比定量到138个零的模型好. : It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, 很可惜,这也是凯恩斯的
| h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 19 Sigh. 你还是没明白.
如果,说模型推到广义的说法,那什么都是模型,建模当然没有错. 比如,Buffett说要投
资有moat的公司,这个肯定没有错,广义上也可以算一种模型. 可是,如果说把它限制到
狭义的几个数理统计模型,问题就来了. 因为,社会的系统根本就是复杂到超过可以计算
的模型的可解度. 你为了让它可解,选择模型,简化变量,还认为仍然能适用,就天真了.
这不只是水平的问题,Myron Scholes,诺贝尔奖得主,水平够高了吧. 九十年代的时候,
加入LTCM,搞到要FED来Bailout结束. 后来,又加入Platinum Grove Asset Management,
08年亏损40%左右. 说他不懂risk,你肯定不同意,可是业绩在那里摆着呢. 他的model当
然也有挣钱的时候,可是"whatever large number times zero is zero",这么简单的算
数摆在那里. 在复杂的经济社会中,白天鹅的数量,根本不是概率能推算的. LTCM倒闭前
,他们的diversify portofolio的correlation接近1,因为华尔街的黑心大 | h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 20 I should add that most wallstreet quants, unlike cangtian, are well aware of
the risks of their methods. I doubt whether the majority of them would
believe so blindly into the models. It is not that you can not use models,
but you must be fully aware of its limitation and weakness, the whole point
of "black swan" argument.
In fact, survey showed that ninety-five percent quants felt that risk
management was the same, if not a larger part of their job. That's street
smartness.
.
Management,
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Sigh. 你还是没明白. : 如果,说模型推到广义的说法,那什么都是模型,建模当然没有错. 比如,Buffett说要投 : 资有moat的公司,这个肯定没有错,广义上也可以算一种模型. 可是,如果说把它限制到 : 狭义的几个数理统计模型,问题就来了. 因为,社会的系统根本就是复杂到超过可以计算 : 的模型的可解度. 你为了让它可解,选择模型,简化变量,还认为仍然能适用,就天真了. : 这不只是水平的问题,Myron Scholes,诺贝尔奖得主,水平够高了吧. 九十年代的时候, : 加入LTCM,搞到要FED来Bailout结束. 后来,又加入Platinum Grove Asset Management, : 08年亏损40%左右. 说他不懂risk,你肯定不同意,可是业绩在那里摆着呢. 他的model当 : 然也有挣钱的时候,可是"whatever large number times zero is zero",这么简单的算 : 数摆在那里. 在复杂的经济社会中,白天鹅的数量,根本不是概率能推算的. LTCM倒闭前
| | | s********n 发帖数: 1962 | 21 赫赫,你是被金融工程和投行思路毒害过深的典型啊。
你有没有跳出来想过:这世界上有些东西以人类现在的科学水平根本就建不了模的。
金融建模最大的问题在于过于简化,简化到了 doesn't make any sense.
我同意“模型都是错的,但有的是有用的”。问题在于,一个经济体怎么能依赖于
这些完全不可靠仅仅是“有用”的模型?你说“适应的范围,无论时间,地点,各
类潜在前提肯定有很大限制的”,可是这些潜在的前提在复杂的经济体中 ever 成
立过吗?如果一个模型错了,somebody lose some money,那没有问题。可是如果
一个模型错了,the whole economy collapses,那么问题就不在于模型的对错,而
在于为什么我们把如此不可靠的东西用在如此重要的事情上?
如果我们承认“模型都是错的”,也承认以人类现有的能力还不能也许永远不能精
确的对经济体和金融市场建模,那么金融学也好经济学也好,最大的问题不是如何
完善这样那样的模型,而是如何保证 the system has enough tolarence when
even the most basic mo | l**********t 发帖数: 5754 | 22 herding has been well researched in behavioral finance. a good read is
Andrei Shleifer's "inefficient market".
BTW, you may enjoy this clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk | j**********e 发帖数: 442 | 23 Wow,原来买股票和买彩票是同一回事,谢谢指教。
stockdemon (返璞归真),你让我领悟了股票和彩票, 除了都是“票” 这个共同点之外,原来还基本上就是一回事。我今后就去村口的彩票投注点天天买彩票就可以了,不用去股市混了。。。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 上次彩票中奖号码是 1234567,上次没写 1234567 的彩民们都傻了。 : 我要以史为鉴,下次买彩票就写 1234567. : : 算了一下1987年的年度收益率,结
| j**********e 发帖数: 442 | 24 Thank you very much, littletshirt. I'll read this book carefully. By the way
, what do you think of Bob Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance" and "Animal
Spirit" (coauthor with Akerlof)?
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : herding has been well researched in behavioral finance. a good read is : Andrei Shleifer's "inefficient market". : BTW, you may enjoy this clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk
| b****e 发帖数: 460 | 25 华尔街有的时候也没办法,大家都这么搞,自己不搞的话容易丢饭碗。华尔街的饭碗还
是很值钱的。
of
point
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I should add that most wallstreet quants, unlike cangtian, are well aware of : the risks of their methods. I doubt whether the majority of them would : believe so blindly into the models. It is not that you can not use models, : but you must be fully aware of its limitation and weakness, the whole point : of "black swan" argument. : In fact, survey showed that ninety-five percent quants felt that risk : management was the same, if not a larger part of their job. That's street : smartness. : : .
| j**********e 发帖数: 442 | 26 Taleb在Fooled by Randomness中说(大意):I read poems, instead of Bloomberg
news every day.
我今天也开始主要读《读者》了。。。
theory
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Taleb的书是近年来难得的好书. 最突出的是名字起的好,black swan,多通俗易懂便于 : 流传啊. 这在畅销书作家中是个共同点,什么long tail啦,butterfly effect啦,the : world is flat啦. 用一个词概括所有内容,是一件很不容易的事情. : 在思想上,这书的最重要的贡献,按Taleb自己的话是"teasing people who take : themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously and those who : don’t have the guts to sometimes say: 'I don’t know...." : 我觉得金融经济的学术界在过去几十年来,确实走了弯路. 从efficient market theory : 到portofolio management,从game theory到VAR/real option pricing,都是数学上非 : 常严谨,跟现实完全没有关系. 连Volker都说,金融界这些年唯一有价值的发明就只是 : ATM机了. 2008年危机,
| l**********t 发帖数: 5754 | 27 sorry I haven't read these books.
If investors herd, the stock price movement won't be "random walk". So "
Irrational Exuberance" and "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" (just judging
from the title since I haven't read them) may have totally different
perspective on investing-- the former based on inefficient market hypothesis
, the latter based on EMH.
way
【在 j**********e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Thank you very much, littletshirt. I'll read this book carefully. By the way : , what do you think of Bob Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance" and "Animal : Spirit" (coauthor with Akerlof)?
| l**********t 发帖数: 5754 | 28 the quants & models are the scapegoats. organization & incentive structure
are the root of the problem. risk management has lower ranking in the
organization power hierarchy in IBs, and quants have lower ranking in
political power compared to other profit-center roles. Rewards are based on
short-term profits on paper. All the parties (from quants to traders to
bankers) involved knew that the MBS and CDOs the they were peddling were
crap but as long as they got paid handsomely, why bother with "
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 华尔街有的时候也没办法,大家都这么搞,自己不搞的话容易丢饭碗。华尔街的饭碗还 : 是很值钱的。 : : of : point
| j**********e 发帖数: 442 | 29 Yes,you are right. Behavior finance incorporates psychology into finance to
explain the anomalies for EMH, such as the famous post-earnings-announcement
price drift...
hypothesis
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : sorry I haven't read these books. : If investors herd, the stock price movement won't be "random walk". So " : Irrational Exuberance" and "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" (just judging : from the title since I haven't read them) may have totally different : perspective on investing-- the former based on inefficient market hypothesis : , the latter based on EMH. : : way
| N******r 发帖数: 642 | 30 i haven't.
i read fooled by randomness. thats it. his "dynamic
hedging" is a good one tho.
Swan" ?
【在 m**********r 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I wonder if anyone on this board did NOT read "Black Swan" ?
| | | N******r 发帖数: 642 | 31 "black swan" events do happen more than people could imagine, or explain.
but i still think 90% of the time markets are driven by different scales of
momentums. Predicting "black swan" events does make someone feel like a hero
, but i doubt that would be profitable in the long run.
ps. thats why i don't really buy those conspiracy theories. they always make
headlines and are interesting to average Joes, but hey world is still
running. | h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 32 "Such illogical thinking, displays the standard folly bedeviling the
'expert' role in any soft science: one tends to use only models from
one's own segment of a discipline, ignoring or underweighing others.
Furthermore, the more powerful and useful is any model, the more error
it tends to produce through overconfident misuse.
This brings to mind Ben Graham's paradoxical observation that good
ideas cause more investment mischief than bad ideas. He had it right." | m******t 发帖数: 165 | 33 应该很容易地证明不存在一个可以预测未来的模型,用反证法,如果存在一个可以预测
未来的模型,那大家都可以根据这个模型来买低卖高挣钱。这是不可能的。
使用模型结果的人本身是模型的变量,这是个强烈的正反馈,会导致系统chaos 或震荡
不止。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 赫赫,你是被金融工程和投行思路毒害过深的典型啊。 : 你有没有跳出来想过:这世界上有些东西以人类现在的科学水平根本就建不了模的。 : 金融建模最大的问题在于过于简化,简化到了 doesn't make any sense. : 我同意“模型都是错的,但有的是有用的”。问题在于,一个经济体怎么能依赖于 : 这些完全不可靠仅仅是“有用”的模型?你说“适应的范围,无论时间,地点,各 : 类潜在前提肯定有很大限制的”,可是这些潜在的前提在复杂的经济体中 ever 成 : 立过吗?如果一个模型错了,somebody lose some money,那没有问题。可是如果 : 一个模型错了,the whole economy collapses,那么问题就不在于模型的对错,而 : 在于为什么我们把如此不可靠的东西用在如此重要的事情上? : 如果我们承认“模型都是错的”,也承认以人类现有的能力还不能也许永远不能精
| l**********t 发帖数: 5754 | 34 Actually positive feedback loop exists in the market (due to herding,
leverage, limited arbitrate, etc). the market boom & bust cycle (and the "
black swan" tail events) is just the manifestation of it. IMHO, recent
democratization of the stock market (discount brokerage with low txn cost,
index fund, leveraged ETF, access to futures & options) increases the
frequency of the cycle. For example, if most retail investors a) believe
shorting the financial sector stocks is a sure-bet and b) have eas
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 应该很容易地证明不存在一个可以预测未来的模型,用反证法,如果存在一个可以预测 : 未来的模型,那大家都可以根据这个模型来买低卖高挣钱。这是不可能的。 : 使用模型结果的人本身是模型的变量,这是个强烈的正反馈,会导致系统chaos 或震荡 : 不止。
| b****e 发帖数: 460 | 35 Charlie在The art of stock picking里面着重说了这个model的问题。
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : "Such illogical thinking, displays the standard folly bedeviling the : 'expert' role in any soft science: one tends to use only models from : one's own segment of a discipline, ignoring or underweighing others. : Furthermore, the more powerful and useful is any model, the more error : it tends to produce through overconfident misuse. : This brings to mind Ben Graham's paradoxical observation that good : ideas cause more investment mischief than bad ideas. He had it right."
| s********n 发帖数: 1962 | 36 I firmly believe government should tax highly liquid transactions, i.e.
increasing transaction cost. That's how it works in physical world ---
resistance increases stability.
.
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Actually positive feedback loop exists in the market (due to herding, : leverage, limited arbitrate, etc). the market boom & bust cycle (and the " : black swan" tail events) is just the manifestation of it. IMHO, recent : democratization of the stock market (discount brokerage with low txn cost, : index fund, leveraged ETF, access to futures & options) increases the : frequency of the cycle. For example, if most retail investors a) believe : shorting the financial sector stocks is a sure-bet and b) have eas
| b****e 发帖数: 460 | 37 Transactional stamp tax? Maybe it should be called as a contract stamp tax t
o eliminate some possible loopholes.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I firmly believe government should tax highly liquid transactions, i.e. : increasing transaction cost. That's how it works in physical world --- : resistance increases stability. : : .
| d*****z 发帖数: 114 | 38 BP is a current example of black swan. this at least shows that the damage
cost from a small probable event like deep-water drilling failure doesn't
look like to follow the normal distribution...
it
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 作者不是那个意思。作者的意思是:金融模型中的小概率事件在现实中出现的概率远大 : 于模型中所描述的,而这些小概率事件的破坏力非常大。这些黑天鹅破坏力超出想象的 : 原因恰恰是因为 people are not prepared for them at all. 换句话说,作者只是想 : 告诉读者:Black swan is not in that far tail of model, it does exist,and it : can be about live or die, be prepared for it! : : ,
| m******t 发帖数: 165 | 39 yes, the government is kidnapped by rich speculation guys. it taxes more on
wages while taxes less on capital gain. it encourages speculation and punish
real wealth making. Short term capital gain tax should be much higher (
twice or higher) than marginal income tax, and long term capital gain
definition should be changed to at least 5 years.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : I firmly believe government should tax highly liquid transactions, i.e. : increasing transaction cost. That's how it works in physical world --- : resistance increases stability. : : .
| m******t 发帖数: 165 | 40 BP is just an individual. its oil spilling is black swan to itself, but
not to the system. I think people here discussing a highly leveraged system
stability (white swan) can be very sensitive to very very small probable
events and system turns out to be black swan
【在 d*****z 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : BP is a current example of black swan. this at least shows that the damage : cost from a small probable event like deep-water drilling failure doesn't : look like to follow the normal distribution... : : it
| | | j**********e 发帖数: 442 | 41 Economists have been kidnapped by rich speculators too.
For example, Arthur Laffer published
an article in Wall Street Journal on June 6, titled "Tax Hikes and the 2011 Economic Collapse", arguing that
Obama should CUT tax, otherwise, the economy would collapse:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704113504575264513748386610.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines
on
punish
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : yes, the government is kidnapped by rich speculation guys. it taxes more on : wages while taxes less on capital gain. it encourages speculation and punish : real wealth making. Short term capital gain tax should be much higher ( : twice or higher) than marginal income tax, and long term capital gain : definition should be changed to at least 5 years.
| S**C 发帖数: 2964 | 42 Sure. Just like Security through obscurity, guys think they have security
until they don't.
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 应该很容易地证明不存在一个可以预测未来的模型,用反证法,如果存在一个可以预测 : 未来的模型,那大家都可以根据这个模型来买低卖高挣钱。这是不可能的。 : 使用模型结果的人本身是模型的变量,这是个强烈的正反馈,会导致系统chaos 或震荡 : 不止。
|
|