y****t 发帖数: 10233 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: yourtt (rainmaker), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 5-Year TIPS Sold At Negative Yield For First Time
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 26 01:17:11 2010, 美东)
If you know what it means...
hehe...
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101025-711679.html |
h****d 发帖数: 358 | 2 what does it imply? the TIPS is very expensive now and high inflation ahead?
【在 y****t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】 : 发信人: yourtt (rainmaker), 信区: SanFrancisco : 标 题: 5-Year TIPS Sold At Negative Yield For First Time : 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 26 01:17:11 2010, 美东) : If you know what it means... : hehe... : http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101025-711679.html
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t*m 发帖数: 4414 | 3 yes. high inflation in 2-5 years.
ahead?
【在 h****d 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : what does it imply? the TIPS is very expensive now and high inflation ahead?
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n******n 发帖数: 12088 | 4 but long-term treasury price still high
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : yes. high inflation in 2-5 years. : : ahead?
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s********n 发帖数: 1962 | 5 Treasury and Fed are playing a very very dangerous game.
Treasury bond will crash really hard at some point. That will be followed
by a stock market crash soon after.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : but long-term treasury price still high
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t*m 发帖数: 4414 | 6 (1) what action should we take? buy more GLD ?
(2) by the way, how/why the treasure bond will crash? If true, any effect
on China?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Treasury and Fed are playing a very very dangerous game. : Treasury bond will crash really hard at some point. That will be followed : by a stock market crash soon after.
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l******u 发帖数: 3169 | 7 Wow...
【在 y****t 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】 : 发信人: yourtt (rainmaker), 信区: SanFrancisco : 标 题: 5-Year TIPS Sold At Negative Yield For First Time : 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 26 01:17:11 2010, 美东) : If you know what it means... : hehe... : http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101025-711679.html
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m***m 发帖数: 324 | |
S**C 发帖数: 2964 | 9 It may suggest two different things
1) The investors, especially the retirees, get led/scared by the talking
heads to believe inflation is on the horizon **AND** TIPS is the best hedge
against it, so they bought up TIPS, albeit market says otherwise.
2) Or the market is wrong, and the future inflation is much higher than the
market implied.
My thinking is on the former camp. People tend to forget the TIPS are, first
and foremost, treasury bonds. It has not been inflation tested since it is
pretty new stuff, and its correlation with inflation is rather weak, much
weaker than commodities. 19% vs. 50+% if my memory serves me right.
My bet is the interest rate will increase well before the inflation start to
hit, and there will be a rout for the TIPS, and it exacerbated by the
confused TIPS investors rushing to the door.
ahead?
【在 h****d 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : what does it imply? the TIPS is very expensive now and high inflation ahead?
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s******t 发帖数: 12883 | 10 high inflation + 加利息,
tips会怎么变?
理论上high inflation, tips会增值, 但是加息, tips会贬值,
那么现在持有tips到底是会亏还是会有收益?
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : yes. high inflation in 2-5 years. : : ahead?
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s******t 发帖数: 12883 | 11 我也觉得tips是overvalued. 就像所有的bond一样, 风险非常高。
hedge
the
first
is
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : It may suggest two different things : 1) The investors, especially the retirees, get led/scared by the talking : heads to believe inflation is on the horizon **AND** TIPS is the best hedge : against it, so they bought up TIPS, albeit market says otherwise. : 2) Or the market is wrong, and the future inflation is much higher than the : market implied. : My thinking is on the former camp. People tend to forget the TIPS are, first : and foremost, treasury bonds. It has not been inflation tested since it is : pretty new stuff, and its correlation with inflation is rather weak, much : weaker than commodities. 19% vs. 50+% if my memory serves me right.
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