S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 1 The full article is here.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-
It is a very interesting paper although qualitatively nothing new. It
painted a gloomier picture for US equity market as a whole.
" ...actual P/E ratio should decline from about 15 in 2010 to about 8.3 in
2025 before recovering to about 9 in 2030."
"Indeed, real stock prices are not expected to return to their 2010 level
until 2027. On the brighter side, as the M/O ratio rebounds in 2025, we
should expect a strong stock price recovery. By 2030, our calculations
suggest that the real value of equities will be about 20% higher than in
2010." | S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 2 Given the demographic thesis, I took a look at Japan. It appears that
Japanese equity market in the coming decade could be a nice place to be in.
They have low valuation, everybody knows, and they have a nice "baby boomer"
coming.
http://www.nationmaster.com/country/ja-japan/Age-_distribution
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: The full article is here.
: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-
: It is a very interesting paper although qualitatively nothing new. It
: painted a gloomier picture for US equity market as a whole.
: " ...actual P/E ratio should decline from about 15 in 2010 to about 8.3 in
: 2025 before recovering to about 9 in 2030."
: "Indeed, real stock prices are not expected to return to their 2010 level
: until 2027. On the brighter side, as the M/O ratio rebounds in 2025, we
: should expect a strong stock price recovery. By 2030, our calculations
: suggest that the real value of equities will be about 20% higher than in
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