a***s 发帖数: 5417 | 1 这次会不会是spx在十月初1074点最后一次shake off之后冲向3000点的第一阶段?
2008年的时候中国很好的机会软着陆,温家宝却忧心忡忡得救市,结果
房价涨了超过100%。
现在本南克忧心忡忡经济复苏不够,一脚踢出qe3, spx在一两年内上涨
100%到200%.
我觉得这个可能性很大! |
a***s 发帖数: 5417 | 2 再说,欧洲也要qe了,市场上会充满流动性,充满投机的热钱。
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 这次会不会是spx在十月初1074点最后一次shake off之后冲向3000点的第一阶段? : 2008年的时候中国很好的机会软着陆,温家宝却忧心忡忡得救市,结果 : 房价涨了超过100%。 : 现在本南克忧心忡忡经济复苏不够,一脚踢出qe3, spx在一两年内上涨 : 100%到200%. : 我觉得这个可能性很大!
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t*******n 发帖数: 446 | |
k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 4
only if US goes zimbabwe
Stock market has been in a secular bear market since 2000
There wont be meaningful growth untill the bad debts are cleaned
injecting liquidity into the system would make all paper assets float
but soon companies would be squeezed by the rising commodity price
leading to another leg down in the stock market
We are in the Kondratieff winter now.
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 这次会不会是spx在十月初1074点最后一次shake off之后冲向3000点的第一阶段? : 2008年的时候中国很好的机会软着陆,温家宝却忧心忡忡得救市,结果 : 房价涨了超过100%。 : 现在本南克忧心忡忡经济复苏不够,一脚踢出qe3, spx在一两年内上涨 : 100%到200%. : 我觉得这个可能性很大!
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a***s 发帖数: 5417 | 5 但是股市这几个月的走势,一直是坏消息跌一下,而坏消息减弱,(所谓的“正面”消
息), 就升回来还不止,涨势一直强于跌势。所以我的感觉是市场整体是向上的,可
能正是由于已经走了11年的secular bear market了。所以是时候向上走了。另外一方
面,大部分的人都对现状感到忧虑,都觉得欧债危机(和尚未爆发的美债危机)会把美
国拖向深渊,所以市场反而失去了向下的动能。只留下向上的道路。
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : only if US goes zimbabwe : Stock market has been in a secular bear market since 2000 : There wont be meaningful growth untill the bad debts are cleaned : injecting liquidity into the system would make all paper assets float : but soon companies would be squeezed by the rising commodity price : leading to another leg down in the stock market : We are in the Kondratieff winter now.
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S**C 发帖数: 2964 | 6 Secular bear market runs 15-20 years, it is likely we are just halfway
through, maybe a little more than halfway. But from valuation standpoint,
the market is not cheap. We may not test the March 2009 bottom, but IMO the
secular bear market is far from over.
I do not pay much attention on the headline news, I am watching the Italian,
and to some extend, French, bond yields, and they are not pretty. Adding
the EU GDP forecast for the next year, things are getting worse, not better.
The unfolding event in EU is not just some ordinary recession risk, it has
the potential to permanently impair firms earning power around the world. So
I am quite pessimistic so far and very defensive for about a year now. My
equity and equity-like exposures can be seen as a hedge against possible
scenario that things could somehow muddle through.
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 但是股市这几个月的走势,一直是坏消息跌一下,而坏消息减弱,(所谓的“正面”消 : 息), 就升回来还不止,涨势一直强于跌势。所以我的感觉是市场整体是向上的,可 : 能正是由于已经走了11年的secular bear market了。所以是时候向上走了。另外一方 : 面,大部分的人都对现状感到忧虑,都觉得欧债危机(和尚未爆发的美债危机)会把美 : 国拖向深渊,所以市场反而失去了向下的动能。只留下向上的道路。
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a***s 发帖数: 5417 | 7 欧洲越差美股越容易涨。欧洲撑不住了就会由ecb印钞票。印钞票就像吸食海洛因,越
印越离不开。以后流动性充分多了,会有很多流到美国买美国的股票和债券。目前股市
跌不下去也是因为这个吧。
the
Italian,
better.
has
So
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Secular bear market runs 15-20 years, it is likely we are just halfway : through, maybe a little more than halfway. But from valuation standpoint, : the market is not cheap. We may not test the March 2009 bottom, but IMO the : secular bear market is far from over. : I do not pay much attention on the headline news, I am watching the Italian, : and to some extend, French, bond yields, and they are not pretty. Adding : the EU GDP forecast for the next year, things are getting worse, not better. : The unfolding event in EU is not just some ordinary recession risk, it has : the potential to permanently impair firms earning power around the world. So : I am quite pessimistic so far and very defensive for about a year now. My
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s********n 发帖数: 1962 | 8 要说印钞票,ECB 跟 Fed 比那是小学生。
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 欧洲越差美股越容易涨。欧洲撑不住了就会由ecb印钞票。印钞票就像吸食海洛因,越 : 印越离不开。以后流动性充分多了,会有很多流到美国买美国的股票和债券。目前股市 : 跌不下去也是因为这个吧。 : : the : Italian, : better. : has : So
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a***s 发帖数: 5417 | 9 小学生会长大的,真等到意大利撑不下去的时候,肯定是印钞票。
不会有别的办法了。欧洲以外的国家都不是傻子,不会去救那些猪国和意大利的。
法国自己难保全,德国救不了那么多,只能靠印钞票。美国的银行们之所以敢卖那么多
保险,就是赌欧洲会印钞票。到时候美国政府会动用一切资源促进德国同意ecb印钞票
的。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 要说印钞票,ECB 跟 Fed 比那是小学生。
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S**C 发帖数: 2964 | 10 German will restore their DM. They will tolerate their lower salary, and
delayed retirement in exchange for low inflation. If inflation go up, good
luck with that.
Look, to save EMU, Italy and Spain need to have real reform to mirror
Germany and German need to allow ECB to have QE. Without either one the
chance of success is much lower. Currently I do not see Italy has the
political will to have real reform.
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 小学生会长大的,真等到意大利撑不下去的时候,肯定是印钞票。 : 不会有别的办法了。欧洲以外的国家都不是傻子,不会去救那些猪国和意大利的。 : 法国自己难保全,德国救不了那么多,只能靠印钞票。美国的银行们之所以敢卖那么多 : 保险,就是赌欧洲会印钞票。到时候美国政府会动用一切资源促进德国同意ecb印钞票 : 的。
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a***s 发帖数: 5417 | 11 可是意大利每年新增的赤字,只有gdp的4%. 所以它的主要问题还是利率。
只要利率不彪高,意大利是可以撑下去的。
比起意大利,美国倒是真的有问题,每年新增赤字占gdp 10%。
那是非常可怕的。
不过,again, 只要流动性充分,股市可以一直涨,大不了p/e变很高就是了。
反正历史上的p/e都比现在高。
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : German will restore their DM. They will tolerate their lower salary, and : delayed retirement in exchange for low inflation. If inflation go up, good : luck with that. : Look, to save EMU, Italy and Spain need to have real reform to mirror : Germany and German need to allow ECB to have QE. Without either one the : chance of success is much lower. Currently I do not see Italy has the : political will to have real reform.
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S**C 发帖数: 2964 | 12 Italy's problem is lack of competitiveness, high debt burden, and slow
growth. It is more and more likely become a one-way bet for Italy default.
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 可是意大利每年新增的赤字,只有gdp的4%. 所以它的主要问题还是利率。 : 只要利率不彪高,意大利是可以撑下去的。 : 比起意大利,美国倒是真的有问题,每年新增赤字占gdp 10%。 : 那是非常可怕的。 : 不过,again, 只要流动性充分,股市可以一直涨,大不了p/e变很高就是了。 : 反正历史上的p/e都比现在高。
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k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 13 pumping liquidity would boost commodity price more than stocks
any gains on stocks would be offset by inflation
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 可是意大利每年新增的赤字,只有gdp的4%. 所以它的主要问题还是利率。 : 只要利率不彪高,意大利是可以撑下去的。 : 比起意大利,美国倒是真的有问题,每年新增赤字占gdp 10%。 : 那是非常可怕的。 : 不过,again, 只要流动性充分,股市可以一直涨,大不了p/e变很高就是了。 : 反正历史上的p/e都比现在高。
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