s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 1 Sometime in 2012 or no later than early 2013.
Although Heroin taking still keeps her conscious, the time
between doses are getting shorter and shorter, and each dose
is getting stronger and stronger. Yet her behavior is more
and more lack of self-control.
These all point to one thing --- soon she will die. |
k****n
发帖数: 1334 | 2 那如何应对呢？
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Sometime in 2012 or no later than early 2013.
: Although Heroin taking still keeps her conscious, the time
: between doses are getting shorter and shorter, and each dose
: is getting stronger and stronger. Yet her behavior is more
: and more lack of self-control.
: These all point to one thing --- soon she will die.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 3 All cash.
【在 k****n 的大作中提到】
: 那如何应对呢？
|
a*w
发帖数: 4495 | 4 not gold?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: All cash.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 5 I reduced my exposure to gold/silver recently.
I will keep some gold and silver, but right now I don't think
it's a good idea to hold too much.
【在 a*w 的大作中提到】
: not gold?
|
a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 6 Great move !
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I reduced my exposure to gold/silver recently.
: I will keep some gold and silver, but right now I don't think
: it's a good idea to hold too much.
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 7 the problem is will stock or dollar die
I know one of them will die, but not sure which one
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Sometime in 2012 or no later than early 2013.
: Although Heroin taking still keeps her conscious, the time
: between doses are getting shorter and shorter, and each dose
: is getting stronger and stronger. Yet her behavior is more
: and more lack of self-control.
: These all point to one thing --- soon she will die.
|
m*****i
发帖数: 628 | 8 SP500 底部是多少点儿？
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Sometime in 2012 or no later than early 2013.
: Although Heroin taking still keeps her conscious, the time
: between doses are getting shorter and shorter, and each dose
: is getting stronger and stronger. Yet her behavior is more
: and more lack of self-control.
: These all point to one thing --- soon she will die.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 9 wrong question. nobody can tell.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: SP500 底部是多少点儿？
|
m*****u
发帖数: 5534 | 10 all in FAZ
【在 k****n 的大作中提到】
: 那如何应对呢？
|
|
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 11 Please, we are serious people discussing serious issues.
【在 m*****u 的大作中提到】
: all in FAZ
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 12 Define 崩盘
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Sometime in 2012 or no later than early 2013.
: Although Heroin taking still keeps her conscious, the time
: between doses are getting shorter and shorter, and each dose
: is getting stronger and stronger. Yet her behavior is more
: and more lack of self-control.
: These all point to one thing --- soon she will die.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 13
Both will. In order for a currency to be viable there has to be strong
industrial output behind it. Now when was the last time we were able to
buy anything "Made In USA"? Hard to remember. W/o the proper industrial
production backing it Dollar is simply a doomed pretender.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: the problem is will stock or dollar die
: I know one of them will die, but not sure which one
|
f**********8
发帖数: 2276 | |
p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 15 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/business/worldbusiness/20iht-
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Both will. In order for a currency to be viable there has to be strong
: industrial output behind it. Now when was the last time we were able to
: buy anything "Made In USA"? Hard to remember. W/o the proper industrial
: production backing it Dollar is simply a doomed pretender.
|
a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 16 写这篇文章的人就是安慰人一下。就算美国制造业在二十多年时间里增长了，
但是比较其他国家，比如中国印度，增长率低得太多太多了。而科技进步使得
雇佣更少的人，美国增加的制造业产值并没有带来就业的增加。那些outsource
造成就业的纯减少。这不仅在体力工人方面，而且也在脑力劳动方面得到
体现。早期的全球化，使美国普通人享受到低价物品的实惠。而全球化
如果继续进行的话，美国普通人将面对长期高失业率，工资的实际下降，
而全球化的好处将由资本家和其代理独享。正如我们今天见到的大公司
业绩不断增长，而美国的就业和房市却不断下跌。
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/business/worldbusiness/20iht-
|
h**v
发帖数: 2010 | 17 why not buy UUP, TLT?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: All cash.
|
U******l
发帖数: 21 | 18 As long as a company has a sustainable business model and is expected to
earn decent profit then its stock price should not stay low in the long run?
The negative effect of globaization to the US and possibly other developed
countries, e.g., high unemployment rate and continually lowering life
quality, does not necessarily imply the long sustaining impact to the stock
market? This is because this negative effect can be more or less
compensated by better profits from other parts of the world, i.e.,
developing countries.
Given the extremely low interest rate, holding 100% cash would require
excellent skills (luck) to time the market. |
p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 19 Another round of dosage, and let's see how long it will last.
Economist magazine says that central banks are acting like providing water
to cancer patients. It surely is nice. Now the liquidity concern is removed,
FED can proudly claim that the patient didn't die of dehydration.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Sometime in 2012 or no later than early 2013.
: Although Heroin taking still keeps her conscious, the time
: between doses are getting shorter and shorter, and each dose
: is getting stronger and stronger. Yet her behavior is more
: and more lack of self-control.
: These all point to one thing --- soon she will die.
|
a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 20 大本在美联储的计算机里轻松得多敲了几个尾数零，全球的钱源源不断得流动起来。我
们目击的是一个crazy world. 等到某一天醒来发现，全球都跟津巴布韦
统一了。
removed,
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Another round of dosage, and let's see how long it will last.
: Economist magazine says that central banks are acting like providing water
: to cancer patients. It surely is nice. Now the liquidity concern is removed,
: FED can proudly claim that the patient didn't die of dehydration.
|
|
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 21 I think the CBs did the right thing to address the liquidity issue, but the
solvency issues remain, and there is nothing much monetary side can do about
insolvency, although liquidity freeze can turn into insolvency. It buys
some time for the EU politicians. If there is not much positive followup
from the fiscal side, the market will quickly drop.
Really, I think there is only one solution that will not rock the global
economy, the Club Med give up their fiscal sovereignty in exchage for fiscal
transfer. It may be terrible for both side, but the alternatives are worse
IMHO. But I do see it happens.
removed,
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Another round of dosage, and let's see how long it will last.
: Economist magazine says that central banks are acting like providing water
: to cancer patients. It surely is nice. Now the liquidity concern is removed,
: FED can proudly claim that the patient didn't die of dehydration.
|
p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 22 It buys them 10 days:
http://www.businessinsider.com/its-official-europe-has-10-days-
But that's not enough for Angela Merkel. She wants all EU governments to
commit to austerity plan before the German commits the help. It ain't gonna
happen in 10 days.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I think the CBs did the right thing to address the liquidity issue, but the
: solvency issues remain, and there is nothing much monetary side can do about
: insolvency, although liquidity freeze can turn into insolvency. It buys
: some time for the EU politicians. If there is not much positive followup
: from the fiscal side, the market will quickly drop.
: Really, I think there is only one solution that will not rock the global
: economy, the Club Med give up their fiscal sovereignty in exchage for fiscal
: transfer. It may be terrible for both side, but the alternatives are worse
: IMHO. But I do see it happens.
:
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 23 crisis的来源， 经济结构性问题， 供需失衡，
随着直升机本的印钞机的轰鸣声， the gap becomes bigger. |
x**k
发帖数: 358 | 24 Even in IRA or 401K?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: All cash.
|
g*****k
发帖数: 1669 | 25 那这个国家会怎摸样？
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 写这篇文章的人就是安慰人一下。就算美国制造业在二十多年时间里增长了，
: 但是比较其他国家，比如中国印度，增长率低得太多太多了。而科技进步使得
: 雇佣更少的人，美国增加的制造业产值并没有带来就业的增加。那些outsource
: 造成就业的纯减少。这不仅在体力工人方面，而且也在脑力劳动方面得到
: 体现。早期的全球化，使美国普通人享受到低价物品的实惠。而全球化
: 如果继续进行的话，美国普通人将面对长期高失业率，工资的实际下降，
: 而全球化的好处将由资本家和其代理独享。正如我们今天见到的大公司
: 业绩不断增长，而美国的就业和房市却不断下跌。
|
n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 26 What is cash? is US dollar cash? What if US dollar (or any other credit-
based money) collapses?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: All cash.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 27 US dollar won't crash overnight. If it does, I am sure there
will be other things much more important to worry about. There
is no need to plan for end of world scenario.
But anyway, I do keep some gold and silver just in case.
【在 n******h 的大作中提到】
: What is cash? is US dollar cash? What if US dollar (or any other credit-
: based money) collapses?
|
p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 28 I don't get doomsday people. Yes, dollar will eventually crash, just like
all currency does. But the question is when...because remember all human
dies as well. It doesn't matter if it happens when we are all dead.
According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, 20 percent
failed through hyperinflation, 21 percent were destroyed by war, 12 percent
destroyed by independence, 24 percent were monetarily reformed, and 23
percent are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.
Many people here are only concerned about helicopter Ben destroying dollar
via hyperinflation. But if history is of any guidance, political reasons (e.
g. war, independence, monetary reform such as the creation of euro) play
bigger roles. I would worry about the potential politically unstable region'
s currency such as euro and maybe even rmb, instead of dollar.
Yes, there is a non-trivial chance that hyperinflation would destroy dollar.
But it is normally a relatively slow process comparing the political ones.
Wake me up when we are out of asset/wage deflation in US. I will pay more
attention then.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: US dollar won't crash overnight. If it does, I am sure there
: will be other things much more important to worry about. There
: is no need to plan for end of world scenario.
: But anyway, I do keep some gold and silver just in case.
|
a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 29 你说得很有道理，但是没过债务增加的速度是前所未有的吧，伴随这个债务增长的是相
对的人口老龄化（比起以前几次危机），工作机会的减少。
以前美国不断扩大世界市场份额，把美国产的东西卖出去，所以美国的就业和经济都受
益。而现在美国通过金融扩张，绝大部分的海外利润滞留在海外，而且生产也在海外，
对美国的就业没有帮助。这种情况下，政府债务急剧增加，而税收跟不上，那货币是要
出大问题的。
相比之下，人民币很坚挺，是因为政府债务不是问题。现在债务量不大，以后就算债务
猛增，中国政府会有一系列创新手段来增加收入，弥补债务。比如土地上市，960万平
方公里，这是多少钱啊。
percent
e.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: I don't get doomsday people. Yes, dollar will eventually crash, just like
: all currency does. But the question is when...because remember all human
: dies as well. It doesn't matter if it happens when we are all dead.
: According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, 20 percent
: failed through hyperinflation, 21 percent were destroyed by war, 12 percent
: destroyed by independence, 24 percent were monetarily reformed, and 23
: percent are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.
: Many people here are only concerned about helicopter Ben destroying dollar
: via hyperinflation. But if history is of any guidance, political reasons (e.
: g. war, independence, monetary reform such as the creation of euro) play
|
n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 30 Of course you don't get doomsday people. Anyone who got will, living trust
or life insurance must be stupid.
Death is inevitable. I have gold, gun and sanity ready.
percent
e.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: I don't get doomsday people. Yes, dollar will eventually crash, just like
: all currency does. But the question is when...because remember all human
: dies as well. It doesn't matter if it happens when we are all dead.
: According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, 20 percent
: failed through hyperinflation, 21 percent were destroyed by war, 12 percent
: destroyed by independence, 24 percent were monetarily reformed, and 23
: percent are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.
: Many people here are only concerned about helicopter Ben destroying dollar
: via hyperinflation. But if history is of any guidance, political reasons (e.
: g. war, independence, monetary reform such as the creation of euro) play
|
|
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 31 You don't get the point, man.
By doomsday, it mean everybody will be going under. Nobody will
be there to fulfill your will. Your living trust itself is dead.
Your life insurance will worth nothing because the life insurance
company is bankrupted.
So yes, anybody who got a will or buy a life insurance for the
end of world is indeed stupid.
【在 n******h 的大作中提到】
: Of course you don't get doomsday people. Anyone who got will, living trust
: or life insurance must be stupid.
: Death is inevitable. I have gold, gun and sanity ready.
:
: percent
: e.
|
n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 32 In that sense, why do people refer to US dollar collapse as a doomsday
scenario?
Heck, not even US as a country collapses is a doomsday scenario.
Dynasties come and go. Human being survives.
Oh, I got it. So it's all about timing. People have faith in the ponzi
scheme and think it can continue for decades more. Good luck people.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: You don't get the point, man.
: By doomsday, it mean everybody will be going under. Nobody will
: be there to fulfill your will. Your living trust itself is dead.
: Your life insurance will worth nothing because the life insurance
: company is bankrupted.
: So yes, anybody who got a will or buy a life insurance for the
: end of world is indeed stupid.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 33 Our point is, if US Dollar collapse **overnight**, that's a doomsday.
It doesn't mean the end of the world, but I think you do agree if
that ever happens, it will be the end of global financial system,
and it will be a huge mess in real world.
We all agree US dollar will drop to trash, but it will be a long
process. We'll have enough time to response and make adjustment
to portfolio. On the other hand, stock or commodity market can
drop 20% in a day, 50% in a week. That's something I am more
worry about right now.
Besides, dynasties come and go, human being survives. Sure, I totally
agree. But that's never the question. I am not worrying about
human being as a whole. The question here is how an individual
person deal with it.
【在 n******h 的大作中提到】
: In that sense, why do people refer to US dollar collapse as a doomsday
: scenario?
: Heck, not even US as a country collapses is a doomsday scenario.
: Dynasties come and go. Human being survives.
: Oh, I got it. So it's all about timing. People have faith in the ponzi
: scheme and think it can continue for decades more. Good luck people.
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 34 I guess what he meant is that he prefers holding US dollar among all paper
assets at this moment. That's all. If dollar collapes, it will bring down
all paper assets with it.
Tangible VS paper, is another story.
【在 n******h 的大作中提到】
: What is cash? is US dollar cash? What if US dollar (or any other credit-
: based money) collapses?
|
n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 35 All fair points. I didn't read peacemaker's post in its entirety until now,
and all of us are on the same page more or less.
My point is, if we know what the end result is, why bother to play all the
intermittent ups-and-downs? There is no guarantee you will win in all
battles. After all, life is short and there are a lot more other meaningful
things to do besides managing your money.
Of course, if you are a professional money manager who needs to manage your
return on quarterly basis, that's a different story.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Our point is, if US Dollar collapse **overnight**, that's a doomsday.
: It doesn't mean the end of the world, but I think you do agree if
: that ever happens, it will be the end of global financial system,
: and it will be a huge mess in real world.
: We all agree US dollar will drop to trash, but it will be a long
: process. We'll have enough time to response and make adjustment
: to portfolio. On the other hand, stock or commodity market can
: drop 20% in a day, 50% in a week. That's something I am more
: worry about right now.
: Besides, dynasties come and go, human being survives. Sure, I totally
|
i*****h
发帖数: 169 | 36 Is bond still a choice?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: All cash.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 37 Short-term government bond is fine. No long term bond.
【在 i*****h 的大作中提到】
: Is bond still a choice?
|
r***e
发帖数: 2539 | 38 ibond怎么样，现在好像还有2.x% APR。
每人只能买5000，还是5000/年？
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Short-term government bond is fine. No long term bond.
|
p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 39 Faint. Shouldn't you guys make your own decisions about your own money? $5K
is meaningful for a small portfolio but makes absolute no sense to spend
time worrying about it for a million dollar one. So it definitely varies by
personal situation.
For the record, I don't understand why BM would recommend all cash as well.
While there are certainly many risks that things could go wrong, the equity
is not over richly priced. I made my AA move when the S&P is above 1300 but
haven't made any adjustment since then.
【在 r***e 的大作中提到】
: ibond怎么样，现在好像还有2.x% APR。
: 每人只能买5000，还是5000/年？
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 40 I realized the problem in my words. When I say "all cash", it's
more about an opinion to the market risk but not really a
suggestion to asset allocation. I do think cash is the best right
now. Especially nowadays all asset types are highly correlated,
means go up or down altogether. No meaningful diversification
can be done at this stage.However, people should always keep
certain asset allocation. For one thing, I could be deadly wrong.
For another, only risks means rewards.
Many people have asked since then if this or that account should
be all cash. This indeed completely depends on personal situation.
My suggestion is still to raise cash level. But depending on your
own risk tolerance, it is not necessary to be totally off.
5K
by
.
equity
but
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Faint. Shouldn't you guys make your own decisions about your own money? $5K
: is meaningful for a small portfolio but makes absolute no sense to spend
: time worrying about it for a million dollar one. So it definitely varies by
: personal situation.
: For the record, I don't understand why BM would recommend all cash as well.
: While there are certainly many risks that things could go wrong, the equity
: is not over richly priced. I made my AA move when the S&P is above 1300 but
: haven't made any adjustment since then.
|
|
|
f*****b
发帖数: 1649 | 41 Now， what if Euro collapsed or partially dismissed? And IMF takes over?
Will that be enough for rest of the world to revitalize?
percent
e.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: I don't get doomsday people. Yes, dollar will eventually crash, just like
: all currency does. But the question is when...because remember all human
: dies as well. It doesn't matter if it happens when we are all dead.
: According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, 20 percent
: failed through hyperinflation, 21 percent were destroyed by war, 12 percent
: destroyed by independence, 24 percent were monetarily reformed, and 23
: percent are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.
: Many people here are only concerned about helicopter Ben destroying dollar
: via hyperinflation. But if history is of any guidance, political reasons (e.
: g. war, independence, monetary reform such as the creation of euro) play
|
j*********g
发帖数: 3179 | 42 同意。我觉得下一个泡沫就是国际大公司的营收。全球化几十年，感觉越来越支撑不下
去了。发达国家和发展中国家的屁民们享受到的好处，相对资本家以及其代理享受的好
处会越来越微不足道。我预测在未来10-20年内，全球化将遇到一个瓶颈。到时候国际
化大公司会受到很大的打击。
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 写这篇文章的人就是安慰人一下。就算美国制造业在二十多年时间里增长了，
: 但是比较其他国家，比如中国印度，增长率低得太多太多了。而科技进步使得
: 雇佣更少的人，美国增加的制造业产值并没有带来就业的增加。那些outsource
: 造成就业的纯减少。这不仅在体力工人方面，而且也在脑力劳动方面得到
: 体现。早期的全球化，使美国普通人享受到低价物品的实惠。而全球化
: 如果继续进行的话，美国普通人将面对长期高失业率，工资的实际下降，
: 而全球化的好处将由资本家和其代理独享。正如我们今天见到的大公司
: 业绩不断增长，而美国的就业和房市却不断下跌。
|
p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 43 Although still early, it looks like a bad call for now. S&P is up more than
11% since the post.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Sometime in 2012 or no later than early 2013.
: Although Heroin taking still keeps her conscious, the time
: between doses are getting shorter and shorter, and each dose
: is getting stronger and stronger. Yet her behavior is more
: and more lack of self-control.
: These all point to one thing --- soon she will die.
|
a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 44 还是kafen最牛，他说已经改变了以前要fall from cliff的market view,
(当然他改变的时候，market已经经历过两次fall from cliff了，第一次
到1120， 第二次到1074. )
然后他说感觉market grinding higher, but not too much higher than
recent high. 到至今为止还非常正确。
kafen的市场感觉真牛。不知道他现在有没有新的感觉。
than
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Although still early, it looks like a bad call for now. S&P is up more than
: 11% since the post.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 45 I only said it will crash soon. I didn't say it will crash from where :)
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Although still early, it looks like a bad call for now. S&P is up more than
: 11% since the post.
|
a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 46 Why it will crash soon ?
I think the market is not cheap by history standard like shiller PE. But I d
on't quite understand why it has to crash - pls 指教
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I only said it will crash soon. I didn't say it will crash from where :)
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s********z
发帖数: 5411 | 47 it will crash sooner or later and it will boom sooner or later.
that's just how market works.
nobody can predict what will happen.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I only said it will crash soon. I didn't say it will crash from where :)
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 48 hehe making calls is one thing, executing in the real time is much more
important
I got out of 401K at 1250, hopefully I can get back in cheaper
so far the odd is high with a possible intermediate declining into March
from as early as the next few days.
but one lesson I have learnt is to be flexible and not to let the emotions
rule one's analysis. Too many people, especially those on the stock board,
seem to care more about being right rather than making real money.
there was a real high possibility for the market to drop into a major low in
the 2nd half of 2012. but we should keep in mind Ben certainly can abort it
just as he did in 2009. Stocks was grinding higher on the face of a strong
dollar recently, this might tell us Ben has already stepped up.
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 还是kafen最牛，他说已经改变了以前要fall from cliff的market view,
: (当然他改变的时候，market已经经历过两次fall from cliff了，第一次
: 到1120， 第二次到1074. )
: 然后他说感觉market grinding higher, but not too much higher than
: recent high. 到至今为止还非常正确。
: kafen的市场感觉真牛。不知道他现在有没有新的感觉。
:
: than
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 49 thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts!
我是彻底糊涂了。这几天金融，太阳能，还有别的股，比如lulu什么的所谓成长股，都
爆发性增长。这种情形我以前只在2007年大盘最高点和2009年大盘最低点附近见过。但
是现在显然不是大盘最高点，大盘在低位已经震荡了半年了。而现在也明显不是大盘最
低点。
在这种不高不低的位置出现的板块大幅度齐动，到底说明什么呢？
market向上或者向下突破哪个几率大些呢？
in
it
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: hehe making calls is one thing, executing in the real time is much more
: important
: I got out of 401K at 1250, hopefully I can get back in cheaper
: so far the odd is high with a possible intermediate declining into March
: from as early as the next few days.
: but one lesson I have learnt is to be flexible and not to let the emotions
: rule one's analysis. Too many people, especially those on the stock board,
: seem to care more about being right rather than making real money.
: there was a real high possibility for the market to drop into a major low in
: the 2nd half of 2012. but we should keep in mind Ben certainly can abort it
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 50 最近一个月，大盘貌似非常强大，虽然上涨主要靠高开，但是每次dip的时候都dip一点
点，并且很快就拉回至更高。好像有一股力量只许大盘涨，不许大盘跌。
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts!
: 我是彻底糊涂了。这几天金融，太阳能，还有别的股，比如lulu什么的所谓成长股，都
: 爆发性增长。这种情形我以前只在2007年大盘最高点和2009年大盘最低点附近见过。但
: 是现在显然不是大盘最高点，大盘在低位已经震荡了半年了。而现在也明显不是大盘最
: 低点。
: 在这种不高不低的位置出现的板块大幅度齐动，到底说明什么呢？
: market向上或者向下突破哪个几率大些呢？
:
: in
: it
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E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 51 现在是选举阶段，经济差奥巴马这样的利益集团代言人就没法当选。所以大盘近期最多
走平，不应该大跌（至少这算是政治任务，当然不排除任务失败的情况）。
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 最近一个月，大盘貌似非常强大，虽然上涨主要靠高开，但是每次dip的时候都dip一点
: 点，并且很快就拉回至更高。好像有一股力量只许大盘涨，不许大盘跌。
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 52 Of course there are people who can predict it. They may not succeed at every
time. But if you look at things in the right angle, you will be able to
predict it. I don't know how to predict it myself but I know reading news
and charts is not the way to predict future.
【在 s********z 的大作中提到】
: it will crash sooner or later and it will boom sooner or later.
: that's just how market works.
: nobody can predict what will happen.
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 53 a break higher of the stock market seemed to be a faked one to allow
the big boys to dump their positions to the retail investors
very normal for a top
it looks like we are going lower as I expected
with commodities selling off, now we might want to be open to an option
that the CRB index still has its low ahead of us. I thought its low was
in with a double bottom formation. This is still possible but I guess
being cautous and preparing for another leg down would not hurt. Dollar
is breaking out after coiling along its resistance. This is a hint IMO.
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts!
: 我是彻底糊涂了。这几天金融，太阳能，还有别的股，比如lulu什么的所谓成长股，都
: 爆发性增长。这种情形我以前只在2007年大盘最高点和2009年大盘最低点附近见过。但
: 是现在显然不是大盘最高点，大盘在低位已经震荡了半年了。而现在也明显不是大盘最
: 低点。
: 在这种不高不低的位置出现的板块大幅度齐动，到底说明什么呢？
: market向上或者向下突破哪个几率大些呢？
:
: in
: it
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 54 看昨天和今天，我觉得不是假装的break了。
MM是消息最灵通的人，他们早知道job data/trade deficit/sales等等很差，他们也早
就知道欧洲要被降级，但是他们没有在这之前卖空乘机打压，而是选择花费大力气去把
昨天的盘拉绿，又花了更大的力气把今天的盘拉回到开盘点以上，这不仅仅是信心的宣
示了吧。探讨一下。我觉得MM要用力做多。1290以下的套牢盘全部跑光了，去哪里了？
都被MM买去了。
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: a break higher of the stock market seemed to be a faked one to allow
: the big boys to dump their positions to the retail investors
: very normal for a top
: it looks like we are going lower as I expected
: with commodities selling off, now we might want to be open to an option
: that the CRB index still has its low ahead of us. I thought its low was
: in with a double bottom formation. This is still possible but I guess
: being cautous and preparing for another leg down would not hurt. Dollar
: is breaking out after coiling along its resistance. This is a hint IMO.
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j**s
发帖数: 1028 | 55 What % will you recommend for gold? and do you recommend gold etf? or
bullion physical gold.
Do you think us housing market will go down with this second recession?
Thanks for your insight.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: US dollar won't crash overnight. If it does, I am sure there
: will be other things much more important to worry about. There
: is no need to plan for end of world scenario.
: But anyway, I do keep some gold and silver just in case.
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 56 I would recommend 10% physical gold.
Housing market won't recovery until at least 5 years later.
I am not sure if it will go down much more though.
【在 j**s 的大作中提到】
: What % will you recommend for gold? and do you recommend gold etf? or
: bullion physical gold.
: Do you think us housing market will go down with this second recession?
: Thanks for your insight.
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c*****e
发帖数: 1106 | 57 I assume you meant you got of domestic stock funds (int'l too?).
May I ask which asset class you rotated to? I am very wary of bond funds at
current prices.
I feel I am lucky that my 401K has a stable value fund paying close to 2%,
but I am afraid many others would have MM funds paying much less.
Even with a 2% yield, i am reluctant to keep a sizable allocation there, I wish my 401k had some type of dividend fund.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: hehe making calls is one thing, executing in the real time is much more
: important
: I got out of 401K at 1250, hopefully I can get back in cheaper
: so far the odd is high with a possible intermediate declining into March
: from as early as the next few days.
: but one lesson I have learnt is to be flexible and not to let the emotions
: rule one's analysis. Too many people, especially those on the stock board,
: seem to care more about being right rather than making real money.
: there was a real high possibility for the market to drop into a major low in
: the 2nd half of 2012. but we should keep in mind Ben certainly can abort it
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c*****e
发帖数: 1106 | 58 What do people think of a good assert allocation now after a sizable run-up
in equity so far?
Personally, I don't like intermediate or long bonds here, I am a little bit
wary of int'l funds in developed markets, europe or japan. Euro and other
currencies have rebounded nicely; but in spite of whatever mandate BOE is
supposed to have, I am afraid it will have to print more money one way or
the other, so I am wondering if Euro will turn south sooner or later.
I have been rotating $ into the stable value fund lately. In my 401k, I
currently have
35% in stable value fund,
35% in domestic equity funds
25% large caps, 10% small-mid caps
30% in int'l equity funds
20% in developed market, 10% in emerging markets.
In my retail account, I have 1/3 long (primarily tech and energy), 1/3 short
(various) and 1/3 in cash. |
G***o
发帖数: 5158 | 59 I have about 5% in physical gold bought about 2 years ago.
Shall I add more?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I would recommend 10% physical gold.
: Housing market won't recovery until at least 5 years later.
: I am not sure if it will go down much more though.
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