s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 1 每年每个成员国的赤字不得超过一个很低的比例， 超过的话就制裁。
问题是怎么制裁？ 没有制裁手段的吧？
同时又筹集五千亿欧元作为稳定基金， 那这五千亿就增加了很多筹集国的赤字了吧？
很矛盾的两个声明。
再者， 四猪和意大利的财政赤字无论如何也无法在近几年达到今天新设的标准吧。
他们每年利息就得付那么多，除非把政府全部解散， 公务员全部解雇，
要不然哪能控制赤字在那么低的程度呢？ |
s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 2 hehe, yahoo有文章来看这个under the hook了.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/313100-eu-relief-rally-likely-t
Investors were treated this week to another eurozone rolle
r coaster ride. On Friday there was a “relief rally” bas
ed upon the fact that the eurozone leaders were able to fo
rge some type of consensus in addressing its roiling finan
cial crisis. This was clearly better than what most had fe
ared.
Under the Hood: However, looking under the hood, what you
have is an inter-governmental agreement basically acknowle
dging that the 17 participating euro zone governments will
comply with deficit restrictions, cede national fiscal so
vereignty to a supranational organization and subject part
icipants to automatic sanctions in breaching the terms of
the agreement.
Running on Empty: In reality, 12 of the 17 eurozone countr
ies in 2011 will be running deficits greater than 3%—the
current self-imposed budget limit for participating member
s. The question is: what kind of sanctions would be impose
d on non-compliers? It’s not like you’re dealing with No
rth Korea or Iran where sanctions are intended to topple r
egimes. Tough sanctions would just create a “death spiral
” in countries that may be hobbled economically dragging
the rest with them.
OECD warns of lower global growth and lowered its forecast
for its 34 members to 1.9% in 2011 and 1.6% in 2012 from
2.3% and 2.8%, respectively. The organization anticipates
a mild recession in the eurozone. Given that the European
Union is staring at a recession—mild or otherwise, the ab
ility to both finance and reduce the sovereign debt is pro
blematic in the near term. And we haven’t even started ta
lking about the banks.
Coming Up Short? The items where this summit fell short in
clude the U.K. opting out. This makes this agreement a non
-starter as a broader European Union treaty change. Second
ly, and more importantly, the summit did not produce a com
mitment by the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) to
a wholesale rescue of sovereign debt of participating coun
tries nor their banks.
The Devil’s Boots Don’t Squeak: Now that we enjoyed this
victory lap, it’s time to give the Devil his/her due. Th
e focus will now turn to the process and details of admini
stering and punishing non-compliers—and this is where the
Devil lives.
The Sixth Eurozone Crisis Summit: Unless the ECB weighs in
with the ability to create euros to support sovereign and
related bank debt, we are all just waiting for the sixth
eurozone crisis summit to be announced.
【在 s******t 的大作中提到】
: 每年每个成员国的赤字不得超过一个很低的比例， 超过的话就制裁。
: 问题是怎么制裁？ 没有制裁手段的吧？
: 同时又筹集五千亿欧元作为稳定基金， 那这五千亿就增加了很多筹集国的赤字了吧？
: 很矛盾的两个声明。
: 再者， 四猪和意大利的财政赤字无论如何也无法在近几年达到今天新设的标准吧。
: 他们每年利息就得付那么多，除非把政府全部解散， 公务员全部解雇，
: 要不然哪能控制赤字在那么低的程度呢？
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 3 Everybody knows it's just a show. The whole idea is to create
an excuse for ECB to print EUR to directly buy sovereign bonds.
Now the chance of ECB action is indeed greater but we still
don't know how much they will really do.
【在 s******t 的大作中提到】
: hehe, yahoo有文章来看这个under the hook了.
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/313100-eu-relief-rally-likely-t
: Investors were treated this week to another eurozone rolle
: r coaster ride. On Friday there was a “relief rally” bas
: ed upon the fact that the eurozone leaders were able to fo
: rge some type of consensus in addressing its roiling finan
: cial crisis. This was clearly better than what most had fe
: ared.
: Under the Hood: However, looking under the hood, what you
: have is an inter-governmental agreement basically acknowle
|
s********z
发帖数: 5411 | 4 rather than looking for excuse, i think the whole idea is to push Germany to
agree on printing money. Many Germans still remember horrible experience
of hyper inflation and would never agree to print more money,and that's why
ECB only has one mandate, to keep prices stable.
now, even the borrowing costs of Germany is rising, so Germany finally will
sign up the deal. But we all know it is a joke to have them police
themselves. Euro will be gone!
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Everybody knows it's just a show. The whole idea is to create
: an excuse for ECB to print EUR to directly buy sovereign bonds.
: Now the chance of ECB action is indeed greater but we still
: don't know how much they will really do.
|
s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 5 我觉得关键不是怕通胀， 而是ecb印钱的话， 最后买单的会是德国人。
相当于德国养欧洲。 这样的deal德国人一般不会同意吧， 除了少数可以收益的人，
比如银行界。
to
why
will
【在 s********z 的大作中提到】
: rather than looking for excuse, i think the whole idea is to push Germany to
: agree on printing money. Many Germans still remember horrible experience
: of hyper inflation and would never agree to print more money,and that's why
: ECB only has one mandate, to keep prices stable.
: now, even the borrowing costs of Germany is rising, so Germany finally will
: sign up the deal. But we all know it is a joke to have them police
: themselves. Euro will be gone!
|
p********a
发帖数: 6437 | 6 i agree that you get it exactly!!!
问题是怎么制裁？ 没有制裁手段的吧？
there is no way to guarantee this,unless a United States of Europe is born.
soon the market will realise this (looks like it has already)
【在 s******t 的大作中提到】
: 每年每个成员国的赤字不得超过一个很低的比例， 超过的话就制裁。
: 问题是怎么制裁？ 没有制裁手段的吧？
: 同时又筹集五千亿欧元作为稳定基金， 那这五千亿就增加了很多筹集国的赤字了吧？
: 很矛盾的两个声明。
: 再者， 四猪和意大利的财政赤字无论如何也无法在近几年达到今天新设的标准吧。
: 他们每年利息就得付那么多，除非把政府全部解散， 公务员全部解雇，
: 要不然哪能控制赤字在那么低的程度呢？
|
f*****b
发帖数: 1649 | 7 ECB could eventually cave in. But if they don't have an integrated strategy
for printing, then USA will have a very bright 2012.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Everybody knows it's just a show. The whole idea is to create
: an excuse for ECB to print EUR to directly buy sovereign bonds.
: Now the chance of ECB action is indeed greater but we still
: don't know how much they will really do.
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 8 杨白劳和黄世仁的关系
德国是黄世仁， 印钱等于变相降低债务， 债主当然不愿意。
【在 s******t 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得关键不是怕通胀， 而是ecb印钱的话， 最后买单的会是德国人。
: 相当于德国养欧洲。 这样的deal德国人一般不会同意吧， 除了少数可以收益的人，
: 比如银行界。
:
: to
: why
: will
|
