m****m
发帖数: 101 | 1 现在投资：
65% stable value,
20% TRP EXT EQ MRKT IDX (mid cap)
15% TEMPLETON FOREIGN AD (international)
去年收益－４。１％，今年YTD ４。５％。 我这STABLE VALUE是不是太多了？ 能帮我
看看吗？下面是可选的Plan。
Large Cap
BLKRK EQUITY DIV I
DREY BASIC S&P 500
FA NEW INSIGHTS I
Mid-Cap
BLKRK MDCPVL OP INST
COLUMBIA ACORN Z
* TRP EXT EQ MRKT IDX
Small Cap
HEARTLAND VAL PLS IS
JANUS TRITON T
Inception Date 02/25/2005
International
OPPHMR DEV MKTS Y
OPPHMR INTL GRTH Y
* TEMPLETON FOREIGN AD
THORNBURG INT VAL R5
Blended Investments
FA FREEDOM 2005 I
FA FREEDOM 2010 I
FA FREEDOM 2015 I
FA FREEDOM 2020 I
FA FREEDOM 2025 I
FA FREEDOM 2030 I
FA FREEDOM 2035 I
FA FREEDOM 2040 I
FA FREEDOM 2045 I
FA FREEDOM 2050 I
FA FREEDOM INC I
Bond Investments
Stable Value
* FA STABLE VALUE
Income
AM CENT GOVT BD INV
FA STRAT INCOME I
FKLN HIGH INCOME ADV
PIM REAL RETURN INST
PIM TOTAL RT INST
Short-Term Investments
FID RETIRE MMKT |
b******l
发帖数: 299 | 2 It depends on your personal needs. You have to tell us more information about yourself. For
example, what is the purpose of your investment? Retirement plan or just
saving? How long do you plan to invest these funds? How much risk can you
take? Just seeing your fund, I think your portfolio looks like a conservative
approach. There is nothing wrong with this approach, but it may not fit your
financial needs.
【在 m****m 的大作中提到】
: 现在投资：
: 65% stable value,
: 20% TRP EXT EQ MRKT IDX (mid cap)
: 15% TEMPLETON FOREIGN AD (international)
: 去年收益－４。１％，今年YTD ４。５％。 我这STABLE VALUE是不是太多了？ 能帮我
: 看看吗？下面是可选的Plan。
: Large Cap
: BLKRK EQUITY DIV I
: DREY BASIC S&P 500
: FA NEW INSIGHTS I
|
m****m
发帖数: 101 | 3 这是RETIREMENT PLAN。想长期投资 （２０ 年？）希望平均年收益＞５％ （or 左右
）我现在是去年－４。１％，前年+７。５％，再前年好象是－２０％。感觉这样下去
最后是０。
about yourself. For
conservative
your
【在 b******l 的大作中提到】
: It depends on your personal needs. You have to tell us more information about yourself. For
: example, what is the purpose of your investment? Retirement plan or just
: saving? How long do you plan to invest these funds? How much risk can you
: take? Just seeing your fund, I think your portfolio looks like a conservative
: approach. There is nothing wrong with this approach, but it may not fit your
: financial needs.
|
b******l
发帖数: 299 | 4 20 years is really long-term. I think you should move some (around 50%) of
your stable value funds into stock mutual funds, such as S&P index funds.
【在 m****m 的大作中提到】
: 这是RETIREMENT PLAN。想长期投资 （２０ 年？）希望平均年收益＞５％ （or 左右
: ）我现在是去年－４。１％，前年+７。５％，再前年好象是－２０％。感觉这样下去
: 最后是０。
:
: about yourself. For
: conservative
: your
|
m****m
发帖数: 101 | 5 thank you so much...
不好意思问一下，我怎么知道哪些是S＆P index funds....
【在 b******l 的大作中提到】
: 20 years is really long-term. I think you should move some (around 50%) of
: your stable value funds into stock mutual funds, such as S&P index funds.
|
b******l
发帖数: 299 | 6 DREY BASIC S&P 500
【在 m****m 的大作中提到】
: thank you so much...
: 不好意思问一下，我怎么知道哪些是S＆P index funds....
|
m****m
发帖数: 101 | 7 谢谢。谢谢。。
【在 b******l 的大作中提到】
: DREY BASIC S&P 500
|
s********y
发帖数: 3811 | 8 这里热心人太多。其实问这种问题的都该自己去看看书..
about yourself. For
conservative
your
【在 b******l 的大作中提到】
: It depends on your personal needs. You have to tell us more information about yourself. For
: example, what is the purpose of your investment? Retirement plan or just
: saving? How long do you plan to invest these funds? How much risk can you
: take? Just seeing your fund, I think your portfolio looks like a conservative
: approach. There is nothing wrong with this approach, but it may not fit your
: financial needs.
|
b******l
发帖数: 299 | 9 It looks like I should not answer his questions. I
feel very bad to see his questions unanswered in this board. I guess, if I
did not answer his questions, he would have gone his local lib to read his
books now.
【在 s********y 的大作中提到】
: 这里热心人太多。其实问这种问题的都该自己去看看书..
:
: about yourself. For
: conservative
: your
|
c*******d
发帖数: 353 | 10 Can you guys suggest some books? |
|
|
x***u
发帖数: 1087 | 11 如果很年轻没有必要搞stable value,可以多上stock index.股票怕破产，但是index怕
啥？几年肯定会回去。
【在 m****m 的大作中提到】
: 现在投资：
: 65% stable value,
: 20% TRP EXT EQ MRKT IDX (mid cap)
: 15% TEMPLETON FOREIGN AD (international)
: 去年收益－４。１％，今年YTD ４。５％。 我这STABLE VALUE是不是太多了？ 能帮我
: 看看吗？下面是可选的Plan。
: Large Cap
: BLKRK EQUITY DIV I
: DREY BASIC S&P 500
: FA NEW INSIGHTS I
|
s********y
发帖数: 3811 | 12 go to amazon or barnes & noble stores.
【在 c*******d 的大作中提到】
: Can you guys suggest some books?
|
b****n
发帖数: 993 | 13 万恶的美帝把万能的library.nu关了，以前那上面好多好书啊。
不花钱的，看看这个，写得不错：
http://www.investorsolutions.com/uploads/documents/Investment_S
舍得花点钱的话，看看这些：
William Bernstein:
The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio
Jeremy Siegel:
Stocks for the long run
Roger Gibson:
Asset allocation
这些我都有ecopy，如果需要的话告诉一声。
【在 c*******d 的大作中提到】
: Can you guys suggest some books?
|
b******l
发帖数: 299 | 14 Not really. I have read so many of them that I almost forget their titles.
Just go to the lib and find the finance and investment section. See whether
you can find something interesting. If you are an absolute beginner, try to
find some books such as "investment for dummy" or "retirement for dummy",
etc.
【在 c*******d 的大作中提到】
: Can you guys suggest some books?
|
m****m
发帖数: 101 | 15 谢谢热心人的回复。这里提问的基本都是初学者。我们工作的前几年常换工作，没有心
思管理退休帐户，后来又忙买房。本人非懒人，做什么也喜欢研究，比如买房，现在也
成了半个专家。其他比如报税，贷款，每样都搞的很清。申请绿卡老工是主申请，但绿
卡的每个细节我比他还上心。找DEAL也是能手。我相信在不远的将来也会把投资搞好。
到时与大家分享。
【在 b******l 的大作中提到】
: It looks like I should not answer his questions. I
: feel very bad to see his questions unanswered in this board. I guess, if I
: did not answer his questions, he would have gone his local lib to read his
: books now.
|
m****m
发帖数: 101 | 16 再问弱弱一下，现在index fund长了不少了，是不是应该等回落些在买？
【在 x***u 的大作中提到】
: 如果很年轻没有必要搞stable value,可以多上stock index.股票怕破产，但是index怕
: 啥？几年肯定会回去。
|
b******l
发帖数: 299 | 17 It is very hard to answer this question. I have been trading stocks for
years and I still have a hard time predicting when the stock market will
pull back.
【在 m****m 的大作中提到】
: 再问弱弱一下，现在index fund长了不少了，是不是应该等回落些在买？
|
R***n
发帖数: 25 | 18 for 20+ years, you should invest 70-80% in equities regardless of market
conditions. If you insist on market timing, fixed income looks bad for next
several years. You can invest in Freedom founds while you are figuring out.
【在 m****m 的大作中提到】
: 这是RETIREMENT PLAN。想长期投资 （２０ 年？）希望平均年收益＞５％ （or 左右
: ）我现在是去年－４。１％，前年+７。５％，再前年好象是－２０％。感觉这样下去
: 最后是０。
:
: about yourself. For
: conservative
: your
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 19 Tell that to Japanese broad market equity investors in 1990.
next
.
【在 R***n 的大作中提到】
: for 20+ years, you should invest 70-80% in equities regardless of market
: conditions. If you insist on market timing, fixed income looks bad for next
: several years. You can invest in Freedom founds while you are figuring out.
|
b****n
发帖数: 993 | 20 That's why we need diversification cross the border in this time of globalization.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Tell that to Japanese broad market equity investors in 1990.
:
: next
: .
|
|
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 21 Japanese market consists of 40% total world market in 1990. Diversification
soften the blow, but without paying attention to valuation, it won't be
pretty.
globalization.
【在 b****n 的大作中提到】
: That's why we need diversification cross the border in this time of globalization.
|
b****n
发帖数: 993 | 22 如果只看到1990年以后日本资产泡沫的破裂，那的确是非常吓人的。但是，如果一个投资者在日本经济腾飞，资产泡沫也相应急速膨胀的那些年头里面始终坚持全球化的分散投资以及定期rebalance，那么他的投资收益会相当不错。因为通过不断的rebalance，可以把长期上涨过程中的账面收益变成事实收益。这一点是可以用历史数据证明的。从1980年到1990年，日经指数从6000出头涨到了40000左右，而同期标普指数只从115涨到350左右。如果这十年坚持分散平衡的策略，那么90年的日本资产泡沫破裂的冲击从长期来看就显得小多了，尤其是接下来十年又是美国的疯牛市。问题在于，投资者身处疯牛市中，往往会觉得卖出高价的资产是脑子进水的表现，结果就是把正确有效的投资策略抛之脑后了。
当然，在那个年代，投资工具没有现在齐全，所以全球化的分散投资可能不容易。现在的投资条件好多了，更有可能实现上面讲的投资理念。
Diversification
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Japanese market consists of 40% total world market in 1990. Diversification
: soften the blow, but without paying attention to valuation, it won't be
: pretty.
:
: globalization.
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 23 gloabolization has made all global markets basically move the same way
there is just no real diversification here
【在 b****n 的大作中提到】
: 如果只看到1990年以后日本资产泡沫的破裂，那的确是非常吓人的。但是，如果一个投资者在日本经济腾飞，资产泡沫也相应急速膨胀的那些年头里面始终坚持全球化的分散投资以及定期rebalance，那么他的投资收益会相当不错。因为通过不断的rebalance，可以把长期上涨过程中的账面收益变成事实收益。这一点是可以用历史数据证明的。从1980年到1990年，日经指数从6000出头涨到了40000左右，而同期标普指数只从115涨到350左右。如果这十年坚持分散平衡的策略，那么90年的日本资产泡沫破裂的冲击从长期来看就显得小多了，尤其是接下来十年又是美国的疯牛市。问题在于，投资者身处疯牛市中，往往会觉得卖出高价的资产是脑子进水的表现，结果就是把正确有效的投资策略抛之脑后了。
: 当然，在那个年代，投资工具没有现在齐全，所以全球化的分散投资可能不容易。现在的投资条件好多了，更有可能实现上面讲的投资理念。
:
: Diversification
|
b****n
发帖数: 993 | 24 各国股市不可能完全同步，但差异变小的确也是趋势。所以今后可能要从不同的角度来考虑分散平衡的具体策略，例如通过综合考虑地域，行业，企业规模等各种因素来实现风险分散。
此外，分散平衡也还包括股票类资产和债券类资产，以及其他资产种类的平衡。事实上，如果坚持股票和债券的平衡，那么美国股市2000年和2008年两次惊天动地的崩溃，放在长时间段里来看，其冲击其实也小多了。问题还是在于，人在大牛市中坚持出售自己的股票资产，听上去容易，做起来则如同割肉。我现在越来越明白为什么说投资成功最难就在于长期的坚持和严格的纪律。
好的投资策略应该是让人觉得昏昏欲睡，因为一点儿都不让人激动:“Investing should be dull... more like watching paint dry or grass grow.”
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: gloabolization has made all global markets basically move the same way
: there is just no real diversification here
|
R***n
发帖数: 25 | 25 If you actually check your portfolio, you will find it is not true. Besides
international stocks, REITs and small value stocks offer diversification too
.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: gloabolization has made all global markets basically move the same way
: there is just no real diversification here
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 26 http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#chart3:s
this diversification is pretty much useless
if you were saying the diversification like what the permanent fund does,
I might agree a little bit.
The whole financial sector has been turned into a monster thanks to the WS
and
FED. Pretty much all the stock markets are floating on the same liquidity
sea.
Besides
too
【在 R***n 的大作中提到】
: If you actually check your portfolio, you will find it is not true. Besides
: international stocks, REITs and small value stocks offer diversification too
: .
|
R***n
发帖数: 25 | 27 haha, you picked the worst time in us stock history to make your point.
ok, I just did a quick back test with the following portfolios. Total return
including divdend from Feb 2007 to Feb 2012 rebalanced yearly are:
8.8% (SPY 100)
9.4% (SPY 70 JKL 15 VNQ 15)
23.5% (SPY 70 AGG 30)
26.0% (SPY 50 AGG 30 JKL 10 VNQ 10)
27.7% (VTI 50 AGG 30 JKL 10 VNQ 10)
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#chart3:s
: this diversification is pretty much useless
: if you were saying the diversification like what the permanent fund does,
: I might agree a little bit.
: The whole financial sector has been turned into a monster thanks to the WS
: and
: FED. Pretty much all the stock markets are floating on the same liquidity
: sea.
:
: Besides
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 28 you totally missed my point
I picked the most recent history and it clearly tells you the trend
those things are trending alomost the same way so you wont be able to
get much diversification as you wished
absolute return is totally another issue
as I mentioned, if you really want "diversification", PRPFX is something
you want instead of the one you argued for. It has been discussed on this
board many times before.
return
【在 R***n 的大作中提到】
: haha, you picked the worst time in us stock history to make your point.
: ok, I just did a quick back test with the following portfolios. Total return
: including divdend from Feb 2007 to Feb 2012 rebalanced yearly are:
: 8.8% (SPY 100)
: 9.4% (SPY 70 JKL 15 VNQ 15)
: 23.5% (SPY 70 AGG 30)
: 26.0% (SPY 50 AGG 30 JKL 10 VNQ 10)
: 27.7% (VTI 50 AGG 30 JKL 10 VNQ 10)
|
n****u
发帖数: 229 | 29 i used to have the thoughts about stocks, bonds.
but stocks are always stocks, no matter which industry, where the market is.
these stocks have almost 100% correlation.
you cannot be protected in any year when stocks fall 30 or 40%.
the bond maybe useless if you pick total bond index fund.
return
【在 R***n 的大作中提到】
: haha, you picked the worst time in us stock history to make your point.
: ok, I just did a quick back test with the following portfolios. Total return
: including divdend from Feb 2007 to Feb 2012 rebalanced yearly are:
: 8.8% (SPY 100)
: 9.4% (SPY 70 JKL 15 VNQ 15)
: 23.5% (SPY 70 AGG 30)
: 26.0% (SPY 50 AGG 30 JKL 10 VNQ 10)
: 27.7% (VTI 50 AGG 30 JKL 10 VNQ 10)
|
b****n
发帖数: 993 | 30 虽然现在各国股市的关联性越来越强，但是还远没你说的100%。至于说不同行业，因为
08年的整体崩盘导致不同业界关联性上升，但是即使那样，看看过去几年的金融，消费
品，能源三个领域的指数，会发现关联并不强。
分散风险的目的不是要保证避开那些30%或者50%的市场崩溃，而是要通过投资不同种类
资产以及坚持rebalance的策略来把这样的崩溃带来的冲击在相对长的时间尺度上弱化
。不管持有什么样的投资组合，只要它包含相当百分比的股票类资产，那么碰到08年那
样的时候都会让人觉得惊心动魄，但是长期来看，则是另一回事。
is.
【在 n****u 的大作中提到】
: i used to have the thoughts about stocks, bonds.
: but stocks are always stocks, no matter which industry, where the market is.
: these stocks have almost 100% correlation.
: you cannot be protected in any year when stocks fall 30 or 40%.
: the bond maybe useless if you pick total bond index fund.
:
: return
|
|
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 31 then SP500 itself is diversified enough
manually balancing among different stock sectors may not give
you an edge over SP500 in the long run
【在 b****n 的大作中提到】
: 虽然现在各国股市的关联性越来越强，但是还远没你说的100%。至于说不同行业，因为
: 08年的整体崩盘导致不同业界关联性上升，但是即使那样，看看过去几年的金融，消费
: 品，能源三个领域的指数，会发现关联并不强。
: 分散风险的目的不是要保证避开那些30%或者50%的市场崩溃，而是要通过投资不同种类
: 资产以及坚持rebalance的策略来把这样的崩溃带来的冲击在相对长的时间尺度上弱化
: 。不管持有什么样的投资组合，只要它包含相当百分比的股票类资产，那么碰到08年那
: 样的时候都会让人觉得惊心动魄，但是长期来看，则是另一回事。
:
: is.
|
m*******s
发帖数: 758 | 32 我觉得很多书太头疼了，有个基本策略就马马虎虎了。
如果是20年的投资，就买最简单的比如
选择FIDELITY FREEDOM 2040 (FFFFX)
然后每个月存入saving或者check定额数，比如$500,
然后等待如下具体时间买入FFFFX，总共一年大概$6000刀买入。
(1)当天下午3点左右SP500跌1%以上， 买入FFFFX, 比如$100.
跌2%以上，买入FFFFX, $200. 只买跌，不买涨。
(2) 50天均线 上叉 200天 均线， 并且20天均线 上叉 50天均线，
买入FFFFX, 比如$500.
(3) 每月最多买入三次，每次最多不超过$1000，相邻两次购买间隔至少10天。
有些月可以不买。估计一半的月份都不需要买。
只管买，不管收益，先坚持两年再看看进一步调整。
【在 m****m 的大作中提到】
: 这是RETIREMENT PLAN。想长期投资 （２０ 年？）希望平均年收益＞５％ （or 左右
: ）我现在是去年－４。１％，前年+７。５％，再前年好象是－２０％。感觉这样下去
: 最后是０。
:
: about yourself. For
: conservative
: your
|
