y****i
发帖数: 778 | 1 CUSIP 086516AK7, coupon 3.75%, ask price $93.5, if you believe it won't
bankrupt in 3 years. |
p***e
发帖数: 472 | 2 有Insurance 么？
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: CUSIP 086516AK7, coupon 3.75%, ask price $93.5, if you believe it won't
: bankrupt in 3 years.
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 3 No, but I think the bankruptcy possibility is very low for shorterm because
amazon will charge state tax at most states. The biggest risk is the stock
buy back plan which will cost large cash flow, but S&P already downgrade it
to BB from BBB- because of this uncertainty. The long term 2021 BBY bond
offer up to 9% yield but riskier than this short term bond as a high yield,
so I skip that one even the return may be higher.
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: 有Insurance 么？
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
|
s********z
发帖数: 5411 | 4 how senior the debt is?
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: CUSIP 086516AK7, coupon 3.75%, ask price $93.5, if you believe it won't
: bankrupt in 3 years.
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 5 It's an unsecured debt, but again BBY bankrupt in 3 years is unlikely though
five year CDS trade the company like single B. I think it will be downgrade
to B3 at 2016, or CCC+ in the worst case. |
p***e
发帖数: 472 | 6 It's a hard call. In my opinion, the biggest advantage of best buy is that
it allows you to see and buy the products in-person and immediately. I
think the tax at amazon is still lower than that at local stores, since
amazon only charges state tax, no county tax.
though
downgrade
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: It's an unsecured debt, but again BBY bankrupt in 3 years is unlikely though
: five year CDS trade the company like single B. I think it will be downgrade
: to B3 at 2016, or CCC+ in the worst case.
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 7 County tax is much lower than state tax. Here is 1.5% county tax vs 7.5%
state tax. Personally I bought electronics before on amazon only because it
is tax free. Sure BBY has other local store like Fry's, WMT, Costco to
compete, but amazon effect is so huge that I want to see if this Dec sale of
BBY can show the trend.
that
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: It's a hard call. In my opinion, the biggest advantage of best buy is that
: it allows you to see and buy the products in-person and immediately. I
: think the tax at amazon is still lower than that at local stores, since
: amazon only charges state tax, no county tax.
:
: though
: downgrade
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 8 Common stocks from strong franchises such as T and LMT would be better
choices.
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: CUSIP 086516AK7, coupon 3.75%, ask price $93.5, if you believe it won't
: bankrupt in 3 years.
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 9 If the stock price going down, the div yield can not cover capital loss. If
this bond market price going south, bond holder can hold it till maturity to
have garanteed 6% return unless it defaults. If this bond price going up,
you can sell it before maturity to have both capital gain and interest.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Common stocks from strong franchises such as T and LMT would be better
: choices.
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 10 if economy tanks, strong franchises like LMT and T will survive and back up
as storm pass, BBY may well go through chap-11.
If
to
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: If the stock price going down, the div yield can not cover capital loss. If
: this bond market price going south, bond holder can hold it till maturity to
: have garanteed 6% return unless it defaults. If this bond price going up,
: you can sell it before maturity to have both capital gain and interest.
|
|
|
h******b
发帖数: 6055 | 11 Amazing pick! Is it gone already? It is incredible to be able to get such
a short term bond with 6%, on a major name like best buy. Unless you trade
individual bonds you don't even understand how good it is.
I have been following your posts on bonds and tried out Fidelity. I made
1500 in last month alone using Fidelity screening tool, on just price
movements alone off 50k. Great bonds are extremely hard to find. You have
to run the screener many many times a day and it is like a flash sale.
Good bonds are gone in a few minutes, a hour at most.
Ultimately it is a lot of work to build a diversified Bond portfolio. I
only found 3 good bonds entire month and I screened at least 4 times a day.
My wife prefers NYC condo (it is a 4% bond with a floating coupon rate
that goes up over time, and Bond price itself goes up over time!) but there
is obviously work/risk with tenants. I have to support her so I am out for
now. But your method definitely works! I will try again once we recover
financially. |
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 12 From today's ask price, you can still buy that one at 93.5$
such
trade
have
.
【在 h******b 的大作中提到】
: Amazing pick! Is it gone already? It is incredible to be able to get such
: a short term bond with 6%, on a major name like best buy. Unless you trade
: individual bonds you don't even understand how good it is.
: I have been following your posts on bonds and tried out Fidelity. I made
: 1500 in last month alone using Fidelity screening tool, on just price
: movements alone off 50k. Great bonds are extremely hard to find. You have
: to run the screener many many times a day and it is like a flash sale.
: Good bonds are gone in a few minutes, a hour at most.
: Ultimately it is a lot of work to build a diversified Bond portfolio. I
: only found 3 good bonds entire month and I screened at least 4 times a day.
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 13 Best Buy online sales rise as Amazon collects more sales tax
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/10/bestbuy-amazon-salest
because
it
,
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: No, but I think the bankruptcy possibility is very low for shorterm because
: amazon will charge state tax at most states. The biggest risk is the stock
: buy back plan which will cost large cash flow, but S&P already downgrade it
: to BB from BBB- because of this uncertainty. The long term 2021 BBY bond
: offer up to 9% yield but riskier than this short term bond as a high yield,
: so I skip that one even the return may be higher.
|
g*****k
发帖数: 1669 | 14 can I buy it through regular stock brokerage, such as IB? Thanks.
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: CUSIP 086516AK7, coupon 3.75%, ask price $93.5, if you believe it won't
: bankrupt in 3 years.
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 15 You need to check if they have the same ask price as Fidelity or not.
Usually their ask price is higher than that of Fidelity, that's why I only
buy stock at IB but individual bond at Fidelity even transaction fee of
Fidelity is more.
【在 g*****k 的大作中提到】
: can I buy it through regular stock brokerage, such as IB? Thanks.
|
z******a
发帖数: 5381 | 16 Is it a joke or something?
It is unlikely to file today or next week, next month, but back in 2006 I
tought my house would go up another 50% in 3 years (and it did) and you know
what happens afterwords
Points being: You don't know shit about what the world looks like in 3 years
. No one does.
though
downgrade
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: It's an unsecured debt, but again BBY bankrupt in 3 years is unlikely though
: five year CDS trade the company like single B. I think it will be downgrade
: to B3 at 2016, or CCC+ in the worst case.
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 17 The best for individual bond is that you don't need to hold it to maturity
if the market price is going up, but you have the right to keep the fixed
income until maturity if the market price is lower. I guarantee you will
have better chance to beat either stock or real estate in the long term run
because there is no negative return.
know
years
【在 z******a 的大作中提到】
: Is it a joke or something?
: It is unlikely to file today or next week, next month, but back in 2006 I
: tought my house would go up another 50% in 3 years (and it did) and you know
: what happens afterwords
: Points being: You don't know shit about what the world looks like in 3 years
: . No one does.
:
: though
: downgrade
|
z******a
发帖数: 5381 | 18 have better chance to beat either stock or real estate
At what risk?
I have better chance to beat everything on this board if I choose to sell 白粉
Most of the time markets price risk correctly.
哇哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈
run
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: The best for individual bond is that you don't need to hold it to maturity
: if the market price is going up, but you have the right to keep the fixed
: income until maturity if the market price is lower. I guarantee you will
: have better chance to beat either stock or real estate in the long term run
: because there is no negative return.
:
: know
: years
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 19 You are right. Most time Wall Street or agents do not have much profit left
for individual investors. We can only earn extra money if their bets are
wrong. BBY stock went up 20% in 2 days, better than this bond entire profit
for 3 years. But the timing is so critical that only bond investors can test
the bottom without the risk as stock investors. Even you have huge profit
from the stock or real estate, you still need to switch to fixed income at
one day to lock the profit.
白粉
【在 z******a 的大作中提到】
: have better chance to beat either stock or real estate
: At what risk?
: I have better chance to beat everything on this board if I choose to sell 白粉
: Most of the time markets price risk correctly.
: 哇哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈
:
: run
|
n******h
发帖数: 2544 | 20 not a good choice for individual investors, can not diversify the risk and
hedge.
if it defaults, you cannot sleep.
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: CUSIP 086516AK7, coupon 3.75%, ask price $93.5, if you believe it won't
: bankrupt in 3 years.
|
|
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 21 Investing in individual bonds not only has the systematic risks, being for
example rising interest rate, but also has the default risk that can wipe
out all your investment. It doesn't matter whether you have confidence on
the company not going bankrupt. You simply just don't know. Shit happens
from time to time.
Meanwhile, your return is only limited to such a small number. I would say
it's not worthwhile for most investors: Even if you are right 16 times in a
row (let's say 6% yield), it only takes one default to evaporate all your
past gains and some. If you want to take risk, take risk on stocks, where at
least you have unlimited profit potentials to make up for your inevitable
mistakes. Bond is supposed to reduce risk/volatility, not increase it. |
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 22 Sold today @$96. No need to hold the junk bond until maturity. Half month 2-
3% or 18-24% year return is good for bond.
a
at
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Investing in individual bonds not only has the systematic risks, being for
: example rising interest rate, but also has the default risk that can wipe
: out all your investment. It doesn't matter whether you have confidence on
: the company not going bankrupt. You simply just don't know. Shit happens
: from time to time.
: Meanwhile, your return is only limited to such a small number. I would say
: it's not worthwhile for most investors: Even if you are right 16 times in a
: row (let's say 6% yield), it only takes one default to evaporate all your
: past gains and some. If you want to take risk, take risk on stocks, where at
: least you have unlimited profit potentials to make up for your inevitable
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 23 Don't think the short-term trading discussion belongs here.
2-
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: Sold today @$96. No need to hold the junk bond until maturity. Half month 2-
: 3% or 18-24% year return is good for bond.
:
: a
: at
|
g*****k
发帖数: 1669 | 24 Thanks very much!
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: You need to check if they have the same ask price as Fidelity or not.
: Usually their ask price is higher than that of Fidelity, that's why I only
: buy stock at IB but individual bond at Fidelity even transaction fee of
: Fidelity is more.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 25 It doesn't matter whether you do short-term trading or long-term holding.
Default/bankruptcy can happen anytime after you buy the bond.
Again as I mentioned, it doesn't translate to 18-24% year return. One
default, after 16 of your consecutive winnings in a row, can wipe out your
prior gains. That means you have to make right/lucky decisions at least ~95%
of the time to just break even. What are the odds that you expect those
companies to go belly up? If the odds are not significantly lower than 5%,
you don't have much of a chance if you do this long enough.
2-
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: Sold today @$96. No need to hold the junk bond until maturity. Half month 2-
: 3% or 18-24% year return is good for bond.
:
: a
: at
|
