p*l
发帖数: 270 | |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 RMB will stop rising again USD. But that's it. There will
not be significant depreciation again dollar.
【在 p*l 的大作中提到】
: 不懂求教。看最近很多预测说中国房地产泡沫将破。
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 3
应该是贬 现在出口已经垮了 而且在加速垮
但是天朝不想让他贬 因为贬了 资产价格要崩盘
【在 p*l 的大作中提到】
: 不懂求教。看最近很多预测说中国房地产泡沫将破。
|
l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 4 如果贬值，有没有目标区间？
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 应该是贬 现在出口已经垮了 而且在加速垮
: 但是天朝不想让他贬 因为贬了 资产价格要崩盘
|
B***i
发帖数: 1208 | 5 １０：１？
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 如果贬值，有没有目标区间？
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 6
不知道 反正要贬应该是一步到位
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 如果贬值，有没有目标区间？
|
l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 7 怕贬值预期？
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 不知道 反正要贬应该是一步到位
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 8
怕外汇储配顶不住
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 怕贬值预期？
|
l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 9 天朝的外汇储备会撑不住？汗了
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 怕外汇储配顶不住
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 10
没多少 外汇占款27t按现在的汇率多少美元 架设外资完全不撤
6亿+城市居民 每10个人中一个人换50000刀 就击穿了
还没算中国自己的7500亿刀外债
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 天朝的外汇储备会撑不住？汗了
|
|
|
l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 11 拼信心了，要求核心们戴钢盔在中国银行门口值班，呵呵
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 没多少 外汇占款27t按现在的汇率多少美元 架设外资完全不撤
: 6亿+城市居民 每10个人中一个人换50000刀 就击穿了
: 还没算中国自己的7500亿刀外债
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 12
拼信心就不能让rmb有贬值预期
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 拼信心了，要求核心们戴钢盔在中国银行门口值班，呵呵
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 13 你要是按银行挤兑的scenario看世界的话，没几个国家能不破产。
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 拼信心就不能让rmb有贬值预期
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 14
没资产泡沫的国家怕个屁挤兑 根本没那么多钱来挤
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 你要是按银行挤兑的scenario看世界的话，没几个国家能不破产。
|
l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 15 希望天朝能过次关吧，毕竟家人在那。。。
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 没资产泡沫的国家怕个屁挤兑 根本没那么多钱来挤
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 16 我不能说中国没有资产泡沫，但是就此说RMB会被挤兑，这个跨越未免太大了。
还是那句话，现有环境下，这世界上没有几个国家没有资产泡沫。最大的资产泡
沫不在中国而在美国。RMB的情况不是perfect，但是和很多货币比其实还是相当
不错的。
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 没资产泡沫的国家怕个屁挤兑 根本没那么多钱来挤
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 17
最大的资产泡沫不在中国而在美国
你在做梦啊 还活在08年
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 我不能说中国没有资产泡沫，但是就此说RMB会被挤兑，这个跨越未免太大了。
: 还是那句话，现有环境下，这世界上没有几个国家没有资产泡沫。最大的资产泡
: 沫不在中国而在美国。RMB的情况不是perfect，但是和很多货币比其实还是相当
: 不错的。
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 18 LOL. I am too tired to argue. You can believe what you believe. Time will
eventually tell the truth.
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 最大的资产泡沫不在中国而在美国
: 你在做梦啊 还活在08年
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 19
厚厚 理屈词穷开始博傻了 不要废话
rmb明显是现在 天朝咬着牙要硬挺 因为挺不住 资产就崩 资产崩会加速rmb崩 lol
还time tell truth lol
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: LOL. I am too tired to argue. You can believe what you believe. Time will
: eventually tell the truth.
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l******g
发帖数: 6771 | |
|
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O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 21
天朝现在基本上全身是泡 总负债比美国还多 而且产业竞争力在不断下降
撑住这些 就靠rmb
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 表吵了，拭目以待吧
|
l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 22 我倾向你的观点，但也知道很多变数会造成测不准现象
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 天朝现在基本上全身是泡 总负债比美国还多 而且产业竞争力在不断下降
: 撑住这些 就靠rmb
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 23
最搞笑的是那个所谓版主
也不看看今年中国的铁路货运量下滑 中央财政收入持平 ppi&cpi的背离 出口进口的连
续下滑
石油进口量下滑。。。
其实我很怀疑中国今年上半年 nominal gdp估计持平
real gdp略微下降
就这样还在拼命建钢材 盖空置的大楼 继续吹泡泡 堆债务
居民住宅商业住宅价格还在拼命往上拉
中国现在很像90年的苏联
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 我倾向你的观点，但也知道很多变数会造成测不准现象
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 24 hoho, 真谈不上理屈词穷，因为压根也没打算和你讲理。数字一摆就得一堆，道理也
一句两句说不清楚。可惜长篇大论的事情我早就没兴趣做了。就是随便表达一下观点，
听不听随你。
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 最搞笑的是那个所谓版主
: 也不看看今年中国的铁路货运量下滑 中央财政收入持平 ppi&cpi的背离 出口进口的连
: 续下滑
: 石油进口量下滑。。。
: 其实我很怀疑中国今年上半年 nominal gdp估计持平
: real gdp略微下降
: 就这样还在拼命建钢材 盖空置的大楼 继续吹泡泡 堆债务
: 居民住宅商业住宅价格还在拼命往上拉
: 中国现在很像90年的苏联
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 25 说的都不能算错。就是时间顺序因果关系有点不清楚。对挤泡泡和吹泡泡的
描述也有点前后矛盾。
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 最搞笑的是那个所谓版主
: 也不看看今年中国的铁路货运量下滑 中央财政收入持平 ppi&cpi的背离 出口进口的连
: 续下滑
: 石油进口量下滑。。。
: 其实我很怀疑中国今年上半年 nominal gdp估计持平
: real gdp略微下降
: 就这样还在拼命建钢材 盖空置的大楼 继续吹泡泡 堆债务
: 居民住宅商业住宅价格还在拼命往上拉
: 中国现在很像90年的苏联
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 26
还在吹泡泡 但是越吹越不灵光
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 说的都不能算错。就是时间顺序因果关系有点不清楚。对挤泡泡和吹泡泡的
: 描述也有点前后矛盾。
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 27 而且 天朝现在出口竞争力也不行了 还在硬挺rmb lol |
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 28 最搞笑的还有人认为tg在挤泡泡
也不看看 天朝一季度的总融资额 lol |
d*******2
发帖数: 1480 | 29 不是学经济的 大道理不懂
但是读读新闻就能感觉出来了一些蹊跷
前一段时间 A股暴跌 ZF跳出来说 坚决不提供流动性 一堆媒体跳出来说总理伟光正
后来撑不住 改口说 向符合规定的单位提供一定程度的流动性
一种神枪手是指哪儿打哪儿 另一种神枪手是打哪儿指哪儿
自己感觉吧ZF是哪一种
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
: 最搞笑的还有人认为tg在挤泡泡
: 也不看看 天朝一季度的总融资额 lol
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 30 Calm down, pal. Guys come to this forum not just looking for facts...they
are more interested in investment implications. People have different
perspective and opinions even if they have the same data, and that makes a
market. So if you are bearish on China, how will you invest? If someone else
thought China is doing OK, and given the current valuation, probably (s)he
should significantly overweight China equity and RE. One step further, if
one think China's (infrastructure) investment driven economy growth would
continue for some time, then one may look also at Latin America and some
mining stocks. Since if commodity price is permanantly elevated as Jeremy
Grantham alluded to, BHP, RIO etc. are rather appealing.
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
: 最搞笑的还有人认为tg在挤泡泡
: 也不看看 天朝一季度的总融资额 lol
|
|
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 31
else
he
天朝现在是所有经济体泡沫破裂前的特征都具备
巴西 苏联 日本 美国 东南亚 每个咋都看的那么像
而且天朝现在nominal gdp也严重高估
去年50t rmb的gdp 中央财政收入才6t 财政收入还不是税收
也就是税率小于12% 这谁能信啊 光个vat都多少的税率了
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Calm down, pal. Guys come to this forum not just looking for facts...they
: are more interested in investment implications. People have different
: perspective and opinions even if they have the same data, and that makes a
: market. So if you are bearish on China, how will you invest? If someone else
: thought China is doing OK, and given the current valuation, probably (s)he
: should significantly overweight China equity and RE. One step further, if
: one think China's (infrastructure) investment driven economy growth would
: continue for some time, then one may look also at Latin America and some
: mining stocks. Since if commodity price is permanantly elevated as Jeremy
: Grantham alluded to, BHP, RIO etc. are rather appealing.
|
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | 32 唱衰中国你有什么好处坏处吗？没有的话关你屁事
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: else
: he
: 天朝现在是所有经济体泡沫破裂前的特征都具备
: 巴西 苏联 日本 美国 东南亚 每个咋都看的那么像
: 而且天朝现在nominal gdp也严重高估
: 去年50t rmb的gdp 中央财政收入才6t 财政收入还不是税收
: 也就是税率小于12% 这谁能信啊 光个vat都多少的税率了
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 33 I doubt anyone can "唱衰" China or any major economy for that matter. I
think such comments are more suitable for the political echo chamber than an
investment forum.
As I said, if one believes China is fundamentally sound, one should
significantly over-weight China equity now, and probably Chinese RE too.
Over the past decade, Shanghai Composite Index rises ~34%, China GDP grows ~
340%.
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 唱衰中国你有什么好处坏处吗？没有的话关你屁事
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 34
晕 这种傻货除了扣帽子还会干什么
老子说了一些中国目前的数据 就唱衰了 你单细胞动物？
天朝昨天数据pmi 又创新低（欧洲都大幅反弹 日本出口都增长7。4%了） 你还是系好
安全滴 坐好吧
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 唱衰中国你有什么好处坏处吗？没有的话关你屁事
|
O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 35
an
~
gdp全是投资 投资一停折个70% 也正常
而且现在的nominal gdp仍然是高估
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I doubt anyone can "唱衰" China or any major economy for that matter. I
: think such comments are more suitable for the political echo chamber than an
: investment forum.
: As I said, if one believes China is fundamentally sound, one should
: significantly over-weight China equity now, and probably Chinese RE too.
: Over the past decade, Shanghai Composite Index rises ~34%, China GDP grows ~
: 340%.
|
l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 36 看看飞行员能怎么着陆吧
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: an
: ~
: gdp全是投资 投资一停折个70% 也正常
: 而且现在的nominal gdp仍然是高估
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 37 I don't quite follow your point -
You seems agree that Chinese stock market historically doesn't
follow its economic growth, yet you suggest that if one believes
Chinese economy, one should heavy-weight in stock market?
On the other hand, I think we were talking about the soundness
of RMB, not Chinese stock market or even its economy in short
term. I do hope everybody understand that they are two different
issues, although they could be highly related.
an
~
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I doubt anyone can "唱衰" China or any major economy for that matter. I
: think such comments are more suitable for the political echo chamber than an
: investment forum.
: As I said, if one believes China is fundamentally sound, one should
: significantly over-weight China equity now, and probably Chinese RE too.
: Over the past decade, Shanghai Composite Index rises ~34%, China GDP grows ~
: 340%.
|
g*********e
发帖数: 14401 | |
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 39 I am a reverse-to-the-mean guy. The bigger and longer the divergence is, the
more powerful the reversion would likely to be. I am not a buyer of xxx-
exceptionism, be it America or China or whatever.
So if one believe China economy is sound, then heavy-weight China equity
would be handily rewarded in the future as stock market would eventually
reflect economy. In addition, SSEC P/E sit around 10, P/B sit below 1.5,
with mean-reversion on your back, 6-8% GDP growth forecasted, what make one
not to heavily invested in China stocks? But no, I did not heavily invested
in China, because I do not think currently China economy is sound.
The OP seems leave the room, and didn't seem to mind the topic is changed to
asset bubble.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I don't quite follow your point -
: You seems agree that Chinese stock market historically doesn't
: follow its economic growth, yet you suggest that if one believes
: Chinese economy, one should heavy-weight in stock market?
: On the other hand, I think we were talking about the soundness
: of RMB, not Chinese stock market or even its economy in short
: term. I do hope everybody understand that they are two different
: issues, although they could be highly related.
:
: an
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 40 OK. Fair enough.
I agree Chinese economy has its own big problem. No doubt about
that. And I don't think 6-8% growth rate can be maintained, or
even should be tried to maintain. If GCD accepts a lower growth
rate, I do think it's much healthier for long term.
On the other hand, I don't think stock market will reflect economy
is a given. It's not about exceptionism. They are in general
correlated, but I can see a hundred ways to keep one healthy while
screw the other up. It just have to be dealt case by case.
Finally, none of this says anything about the soundness of RMB.
Maybe you didn't really try to imply anything about RMB. That's
fine.
the
one
invested
to
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I am a reverse-to-the-mean guy. The bigger and longer the divergence is, the
: more powerful the reversion would likely to be. I am not a buyer of xxx-
: exceptionism, be it America or China or whatever.
: So if one believe China economy is sound, then heavy-weight China equity
: would be handily rewarded in the future as stock market would eventually
: reflect economy. In addition, SSEC P/E sit around 10, P/B sit below 1.5,
: with mean-reversion on your back, 6-8% GDP growth forecasted, what make one
: not to heavily invested in China stocks? But no, I did not heavily invested
: in China, because I do not think currently China economy is sound.
: The OP seems leave the room, and didn't seem to mind the topic is changed to
|
|
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 41 I consider the only way, maybe only is a word too strong, to work off the
housing bubble is to maintain high economy growth and squeeze the housing
sector. Financial crisis often strikes when economy growth suddenly drop,
and I do not have much confidence that growth rate can be planned to glide
down to moderate level. Moreover, it is too bad the whole world is in bad
shape and could not give any lift for China economy transition.
I am aware that there are studies shows equity market returns are not linked
to GDP growth, but I am not sure how much of it is due to wars (e.g., WW I&
II) and political reasons (e.g., USSR collapse) rather than economical
forces.
Finally, I am pretty much agnostic to RMB valuation.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: OK. Fair enough.
: I agree Chinese economy has its own big problem. No doubt about
: that. And I don't think 6-8% growth rate can be maintained, or
: even should be tried to maintain. If GCD accepts a lower growth
: rate, I do think it's much healthier for long term.
: On the other hand, I don't think stock market will reflect economy
: is a given. It's not about exceptionism. They are in general
: correlated, but I can see a hundred ways to keep one healthy while
: screw the other up. It just have to be dealt case by case.
: Finally, none of this says anything about the soundness of RMB.
|
