k**********g
发帖数: 378 | 1 年初在不懂的情况下，入了fidelity 的 treas bond fund（focus on 长期），现在要
割掉吗，还是长期hold? 现在已经跌了15%了。
哪位大牛给个建议。 |
a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 2 速割？
卖给我？
【在 k**********g 的大作中提到】
: 年初在不懂的情况下，入了fidelity 的 treas bond fund（focus on 长期），现在要
: 割掉吗，还是长期hold? 现在已经跌了15%了。
: 哪位大牛给个建议。
|
D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 3 with a predetermined asset allocation plan, you are bound to lose money on
some asset class at certain point of time. that's the whole point of having
a diversified portfolio. i would actually go so far as to say that i am more
than happy to have something in my portfolio losing money.
that being said, under current interest rate environment, i will bet, if i
have to, interest rate will more likely than not go higher in the
foreseeable future. i would rather own short term bonds, which is lees
interest rate sensitive. |
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 4 I agree. Buy short term sell long term bonds unless you hear that QE4 is
coming.
【在 D*****t 的大作中提到】
: with a predetermined asset allocation plan, you are bound to lose money on
: some asset class at certain point of time. that's the whole point of having
: a diversified portfolio. i would actually go so far as to say that i am more
: than happy to have something in my portfolio losing money.
: that being said, under current interest rate environment, i will bet, if i
: have to, interest rate will more likely than not go higher in the
: foreseeable future. i would rather own short term bonds, which is lees
: interest rate sensitive.
|
k**********g
发帖数: 378 | 5 what i have a bond fund. i heard the performance of bond and bond fund can
be quite different, but haven't understand it yet.
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: I agree. Buy short term sell long term bonds unless you hear that QE4 is
: coming.
|
D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 6 i was assuming you bought a long term treasury bond fund. daily fund price
reflects the prices of its underlying holdings, in this case, various
individual long term treasury bonds. bond price is determined by the market
, prices of bond fund fluctuates all the time.
if you have an individual bond and HOLD TO MATURITY, as long as it doesn't
default, you will get your principal back, not one cent less.
would US treasury ever default? that's a whole different debate. |
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 7 The yield curve can get flatterned such that short term bond get hammered
while long bond do OK. It happened before. I would rather in cash than in
short term bond now, unless if we are talking about something like emerging
market bonds that have a meaningful coupon payment and also could be a
currency play.
having
more
i
【在 D*****t 的大作中提到】
: with a predetermined asset allocation plan, you are bound to lose money on
: some asset class at certain point of time. that's the whole point of having
: a diversified portfolio. i would actually go so far as to say that i am more
: than happy to have something in my portfolio losing money.
: that being said, under current interest rate environment, i will bet, if i
: have to, interest rate will more likely than not go higher in the
: foreseeable future. i would rather own short term bonds, which is lees
: interest rate sensitive.
|
D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 8 i have to admit i have zero confidence in my interest rate prediction. i
would argue that even if there were a mild yield curve flattening with the
short end going up more than the long end, one who holds short term bonds
would still lose less money than the long bond holders. and i really can't
see a severe and quick yield curve flattening or inverted yield curve. that
would be a harbinger of another upcoming recession.
generally i would say that bond market in the next decade won't be as
generous to investors as it was in the past. we should emphasize the role of
fixed income simply as asset allocators instead of income generators. and
forget about capital gains altogether.
emerging
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: The yield curve can get flatterned such that short term bond get hammered
: while long bond do OK. It happened before. I would rather in cash than in
: short term bond now, unless if we are talking about something like emerging
: market bonds that have a meaningful coupon payment and also could be a
: currency play.
:
: having
: more
: i
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 9 It is ridiculous to believe, even to think that interest rate of short term
treasury note will spike, when FED said that it will hold interest rate to 0
-0.25% range. What is happening right now is the dramatic increase of long
term rate in anticipating of tapering and eventual end of QE3. The yield
curve is widening as I am writing this. Curent FED's policy is that it will
not raise interest rate until unemployment rate decreases to 6.5%, and
targeting inflation rate of 2%. If Yellen is nominated for the next FED
chairwoman, FED likely adopts more dovish policy, completely discarding the
inflation target and reducing the target of unemployment rate to 5.5%. Those
policy will not be changed unless inflation is increased significantly out
of control. |
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 10 I have no crystal ball on what FED will do and how the bond market will
react, just pointing out some recent history. Do I think the history will
repeat? No. Do I think there is a non-trivial possibility it may repeat?
Hell yes! |
|
|
c****2
发帖数: 345 | 11 So when QE tapers off and interest rate rises what will happen to bond funds |
s***n
发帖数: 678 | 12 假如Taper off 开始了, 并且所有长期短期interest rate 都上升的话，所有bond
fund的价格都要下跌。但是现实情况是bond fund的当下价格已经把对taper off时间的
预期算进来了。比如三个月内很可能不会taper off，但是明年非常可能会；这也就是
前面帖子说的三个月的bond大概不会跌价，而3-5年都在跌。
funds
【在 c****2 的大作中提到】
: So when QE tapers off and interest rate rises what will happen to bond funds
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 13 Would you tell us what is the driver that will drive the short term rate up?
Of course there is always possibility. In 2006, Fed jacked the short term
interest rate up to 5%, hoping to cool down overheating economy.
Fed will act to increase the short term rate either to suppress high
inflation or to discourage lending. However,for now, Fed is worrying about
deflation and wants to encourage lending. I see no catalyst to see the
yield reversal. But yielding widening is quite likely.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I have no crystal ball on what FED will do and how the bond market will
: react, just pointing out some recent history. Do I think the history will
: repeat? No. Do I think there is a non-trivial possibility it may repeat?
: Hell yes!
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 14 Common suspects, such as asset bubbles, unexpected inflation, and Big Ben
being right that is US economy will do well in the next couple of years. And
more importantly, flattered yield may not simply come from a rising short
term interest rate.
Given central banks have nothing to show in terms of battling deflation, and
Fed are rightfully worrying about deflation rather than inflation since the
crisis, what make you think the yield curve would steepen from here.
up?
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: Would you tell us what is the driver that will drive the short term rate up?
: Of course there is always possibility. In 2006, Fed jacked the short term
: interest rate up to 5%, hoping to cool down overheating economy.
: Fed will act to increase the short term rate either to suppress high
: inflation or to discourage lending. However,for now, Fed is worrying about
: deflation and wants to encourage lending. I see no catalyst to see the
: yield reversal. But yielding widening is quite likely.
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 15 yield curve is widening more than 100 bps in the past several weeks, the
most dramatic rising of long term rate in the history with short term rate
moving very little. It is thus quite reasonable to assume that when FED
tapers its purchase of long term treasury bonds and MBSs, the yield curve
will continue to widen. FED withdraws the qualitative easing because
evidence starts to show that QE becomes very expensive but the effect on the
economy is smaller than expected. FED will not change its guidance unless
economy growth makes yet another downturn. Otherwise FED will lose a lot of
its credibility. |
