u****r
发帖数: 2053 | |
g*********e
发帖数: 14401 | 2
因为大盘一直在跌…
【在 u****r 的大作中提到】
: 新年以来，正常不？
: 谢谢
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u****r
发帖数: 2053 | 3 谢谢，回头给你包子
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.6
【在 g*********e 的大作中提到】
:
: 因为大盘一直在跌…
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g*****k
发帖数: 1669 | 4 balance it yourself.
【在 u****r 的大作中提到】
: 新年以来，正常不？
: 谢谢
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u****r
发帖数: 2053 | 5 谢谢，其实我想问的是对于401k这种长期投资是不是不必太在意短期波动，因为整个一
月份快少了3%了，所以有点疑惑。
【在 g*****k 的大作中提到】
: balance it yourself.
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a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 6 3% is nothing in Jan
【在 u****r 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢，其实我想问的是对于401k这种长期投资是不是不必太在意短期波动，因为整个一
: 月份快少了3%了，所以有点疑惑。
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i***i
发帖数: 499 | 7 No
【在 u****r 的大作中提到】
: 新年以来，正常不？
: 谢谢
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v***t
发帖数: 27100 | 8 这玩意儿，扔进去就不用看了，即便暴跌，也会涨回来的，到退休年龄附近看看就行了
【在 u****r 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢，其实我想问的是对于401k这种长期投资是不是不必太在意短期波动，因为整个一
: 月份快少了3%了，所以有点疑惑。
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 9 We haven't got a correction for more than 2 years. |
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 10 To long term inveetors every coorections is a godsend. And thats why one
should always hwve some cash or short term reserve in his account. Enjoy the
volitility. |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 11 Investors like to claim they are "long-term" investors until they cannot
bear the pain or resist the temptation. If one is not battle tested, i.e.,
went through at least the last melt down, better yet, the previous two
bubbles, he may want to lower his confidence level. If he traded backward
during the last two bubbles, he may want to further lower his confidence
level.
the
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: To long term inveetors every coorections is a godsend. And thats why one
: should always hwve some cash or short term reserve in his account. Enjoy the
: volitility.
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u****r
发帖数: 2053 | 12 谢谢，那我就放心了，401k还不到一年，没有往年年初跌的经验，这个是第一个1月，
跌的比较多，所以才发帖问问，谢谢。
【在 a**n 的大作中提到】
: 3% is nothing in Jan
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u****r
发帖数: 2053 | 13 意思是不正常？
看了下大盘似乎就是红的一片啊。
【在 i***i 的大作中提到】
: No
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u****r
发帖数: 2053 | 14 好。谢谢
【在 v***t 的大作中提到】
: 这玩意儿，扔进去就不用看了，即便暴跌，也会涨回来的，到退休年龄附近看看就行了
|
u****r
发帖数: 2053 | 15 由你的帖子才学习了下correction的含义，意思你是去年两年都没跌过？牛！
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: We haven't got a correction for more than 2 years.
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f****y
发帖数: 426 | 16 你要是还年轻，应该认识到跌是好事
因为在未来几十年内你是在不停地买入资产
买入的阶段当然是越便宜越好
【在 u****r 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢，其实我想问的是对于401k这种长期投资是不是不必太在意短期波动，因为整个一
: 月份快少了3%了，所以有点疑惑。
|
u****r
发帖数: 2053 | 17 对啊！谢谢，经你这么一说确实这个道理，受教了！
【在 f****y 的大作中提到】
: 你要是还年轻，应该认识到跌是好事
: 因为在未来几十年内你是在不停地买入资产
: 买入的阶段当然是越便宜越好
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 18 a long term chart to keep your heads up.
in this chart generational lows (1942, 1974 and 2009) are lined up. current
trend is in red. "history may not repeat, but it rhymes."
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/02/comparing-generational-low |
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 19 Who is this ritholtz guy?
current
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: a long term chart to keep your heads up.
: in this chart generational lows (1942, 1974 and 2009) are lined up. current
: trend is in red. "history may not repeat, but it rhymes."
: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/02/comparing-generational-low
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M********r
发帖数: 278 | 20 He is quite well known and often appears on Bloomberg TV ( but bot CNBC). He
pens a column on WaPo and runs his asset management business.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Who is this ritholtz guy?
:
: current
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|
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 21 A talking head then?
He
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: He is quite well known and often appears on Bloomberg TV ( but bot CNBC). He
: pens a column on WaPo and runs his asset management business.
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 22 yes he is, but a fine one IMHO
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: A talking head then?
:
: He
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u****r
发帖数: 2053 | 23 谢谢分享
current
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: a long term chart to keep your heads up.
: in this chart generational lows (1942, 1974 and 2009) are lined up. current
: trend is in red. "history may not repeat, but it rhymes."
: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/02/comparing-generational-low
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 24 Basically he is saying, 10 years from now, SP500 will rise to 3033-4375,
that is 73% - 250% increase, or 5.6% - 9.6% annualized, adding 2% current
SP500 dividend yield, he is predicting a 7.6% - 11.6% annualized total
return for the next 10 years if you invest in SP500.
I consider it grossly over-optimistic.
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: yes he is, but a fine one IMHO
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M********r
发帖数: 278 | 25 No he did not say that. he quoted Mark Twain and said history may not repeat
but rhymes. The chart is just a chart. It tells you there will likely be a
sustained growth after a generational low. What are the odds of that? How
far and how fast can it go? Who knows. But according to this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500),after a generational low, 7.6-11.6% annualized returns for a significant stretch of time do not seem to be an astronomical number. That is, of course, before the next generational low hits. Do i expect this to happen again? I don't know. Ritholz is simply showing the data.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Basically he is saying, 10 years from now, SP500 will rise to 3033-4375,
: that is 73% - 250% increase, or 5.6% - 9.6% annualized, adding 2% current
: SP500 dividend yield, he is predicting a 7.6% - 11.6% annualized total
: return for the next 10 years if you invest in SP500.
: I consider it grossly over-optimistic.
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 26 SP500 is not at generational low, SP500 is at 1750 right now instead of 666.
All the value matrix point to a somewhat overvalued to a grossly overvalued
US equity market, which won't give investors a "normal" equity return in
the next 10 years.
repeat
a
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: No he did not say that. he quoted Mark Twain and said history may not repeat
: but rhymes. The chart is just a chart. It tells you there will likely be a
: sustained growth after a generational low. What are the odds of that? How
: far and how fast can it go? Who knows. But according to this
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500),after a generational low, 7.6-11.6% annualized returns for a significant stretch of time do not seem to be an astronomical number. That is, of course, before the next generational low hits. Do i expect this to happen again? I don't know. Ritholz is simply showing the data.
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M********r
发帖数: 278 | 27 He did not say.. i did dnot say.. the chart did not say we are xcurrently at
a generational low . The generational low was early 2009. The chart simply
tels ypu that here could be a very long bull market after the generational
low and we are currently 5 years into and the middle of that process. Of
course valuation model can point to a diferent picture. But if history is
any guide, valuation can keep inflated for quite some time. Then either
economic output catches up with the valuation or we have anther bust. THE
point of the chart is to show investor to keep investing even at the
generational low or during the recovery such as now. THere will be bumpy
road ahead. But history tells us to have faith in the market
666.
overvalued
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: SP500 is not at generational low, SP500 is at 1750 right now instead of 666.
: All the value matrix point to a somewhat overvalued to a grossly overvalued
: US equity market, which won't give investors a "normal" equity return in
: the next 10 years.
:
: repeat
: a
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 28 "Your Ideology Is Killing Your Portfolio"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-10/ideology-is-killing-yo
This is why i like the ritholtz dude. |
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 29 History rhymes?
And this graph that went viral at the peak of the last crisis. |
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 30 whoever posted the first chart ( I saw it on marketwatch.com) needs to go
back to high school to understand absolute change and relative change. dow
had a gain 0f 30% in 2012. but in 1929 it almost doubled. so comparing the
two just doesn't make sense. In the chart Ritholtz posted ( see my earlier
post in this thread), the three trend lines were at least normalized.
again, it is true you can draw a chart to prove almost any point. but there
are good charts and bad charts. just as there are good talking heads and bad
talking heads.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: History rhymes?
: And this graph that went viral at the peak of the last crisis.
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G***e
发帖数: 535 | 31 If they used log scale for y-axis then it's fair comparison.
But looks they didn't.
there
bad
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: whoever posted the first chart ( I saw it on marketwatch.com) needs to go
: back to high school to understand absolute change and relative change. dow
: had a gain 0f 30% in 2012. but in 1929 it almost doubled. so comparing the
: two just doesn't make sense. In the chart Ritholtz posted ( see my earlier
: post in this thread), the three trend lines were at least normalized.
: again, it is true you can draw a chart to prove almost any point. but there
: are good charts and bad charts. just as there are good talking heads and bad
: talking heads.
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