E******w 发帖数: 2616 | 1 其实我并不觉得buy & hold index fund不好。但是它只是投资策略之一(当然是一个
很重要的策略),我只是反对把它教条化。
新手在没有很多知识和技巧的时候,坚定地buy & hold index fund,可以轻松拿到
market average return rate。而且华尔街操纵市场的各种策略,对buy & hold index
fund基本上都没用。打个比方来说,这好比是下围棋的时候因为棋盘对称,你跟着对
手下模仿棋。你如果自己水平不行,下模仿棋一般不会输很多。重要的是,哪怕对面碰
上的是9段高手,模仿棋也照样是能下的。因此,buy & hold index fund对普通人来说
是一个非常重要而且实用的投资策略。
而且,buy & hold index fund的策略可以有很多简单的衍生策略。稍微做点研究就不
难掌握。比如,在mortgage rate低的时候,你可以做cash out refinance,把钱拿出
来去买index fund。如果贷款利率是4%,你冒的风险只是几年的market average年平均
收益可能低于4%。其实就算真是这样,你的损失也有限。而且,历史上index的年增长
率什么时候会低于4%,那些年谁做总统,美国的经济状况如何,经济外交政策如何。现
在的美国社会是不是处在类似的情况。这些东西很好研究,并不需要太多的时间和精力
。这样简单的衍生策略,虽然你是在做market timing,但是同时也在依靠buy & hold
index fund的策略给你提供保护,总的risk并不大。
其他的例子,如果你对杠杆产品有些兴趣,可以找到premium很低的杠杆产品,用很低
的杠杆去做buy & hold。认真分析一下什么情况你的策略会失败,风险是多少。也很容
易拿到高一些的回报率。
这些例子中,你的前提假设是自己水平不高,因此以buy & hold index fund为基础,
不变应万变。但是你并没有把这个策略当作死板的教条,在自己力所能及的范围内,可
以研究一些自己能够搞明白的东西,用以提升buy & hold基本策略的回报率。
总的来说,buy & hold index fund是投资策略的一个极端。短期的market timing是投
资策略的另一个极端。没必要去争到底谁好谁坏,因为中间还有无数的衍生策略。关键
是你对自己的水平和目标要有清醒的认识。而且要有对自己的资金负责的想法。自己的
策略具体在做什么要理解得非常透彻,同时在此基础上也要勇于尝试一些新的东西。这
样才能够把不同的策略灵活掌握,发扬光大。 |
d*******e 发帖数: 1649 | 2 等到有你说的这些知识水平和策略的时候,已经不能叫做新手了。呵呵。
index
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】 : 其实我并不觉得buy & hold index fund不好。但是它只是投资策略之一(当然是一个 : 很重要的策略),我只是反对把它教条化。 : 新手在没有很多知识和技巧的时候,坚定地buy & hold index fund,可以轻松拿到 : market average return rate。而且华尔街操纵市场的各种策略,对buy & hold index : fund基本上都没用。打个比方来说,这好比是下围棋的时候因为棋盘对称,你跟着对 : 手下模仿棋。你如果自己水平不行,下模仿棋一般不会输很多。重要的是,哪怕对面碰 : 上的是9段高手,模仿棋也照样是能下的。因此,buy & hold index fund对普通人来说 : 是一个非常重要而且实用的投资策略。 : 而且,buy & hold index fund的策略可以有很多简单的衍生策略。稍微做点研究就不 : 难掌握。比如,在mortgage rate低的时候,你可以做cash out refinance,把钱拿出
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E******w 发帖数: 2616 | 3 不敢脱离buy & hold index fund的基本都算新手。虽然模仿棋9段也下过,但是下围棋
以模仿棋为主的,没人敢说自己是高手。
【在 d*******e 的大作中提到】 : 等到有你说的这些知识水平和策略的时候,已经不能叫做新手了。呵呵。 : : index
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m*********y 发帖数: 1890 | 4 闹了半天在楼主眼里成新手了...
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】 : 不敢脱离buy & hold index fund的基本都算新手。虽然模仿棋9段也下过,但是下围棋 : 以模仿棋为主的,没人敢说自己是高手。
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E******w 发帖数: 2616 | 5 嘿嘿,谅你也不敢自报家门证明你不是新手。。。
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】 : 闹了半天在楼主眼里成新手了...
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m*********y 发帖数: 1890 | 6 楼主把选择buy & hold和只能如此混淆了.
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】 : 嘿嘿,谅你也不敢自报家门证明你不是新手。。。
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p*****y 发帖数: 529 | 7 再来敲打敲打你吧, 看你很自以为是。
如果你看看历史, 你就会知道mortgage rate和10 yr treasury是强正相关, 和
equity market是弱负相关, 也就是说mortgage
rate低的时候正好是经济不好的时候, equity market expected return很差的时候
, 这个时候你用refi拿钱出来炒股leverage up, 一般情况是找死。 如果你从09年开
始就这么做了, 恭喜你hit了jackpot, 因为你遇上了百年一遇的和bond market正相
关的牛市, 不过劝你一句:下次别再赌了, 看明白了再上。
btw: 别一上来就摆出老手训小弟的架势, 板上懂的比你多的人有的是,虚心一点不是
坏处。 你帖子里面对investing的认识很多是错的, 你不虚心学迟早会pay的。
index
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】 : 其实我并不觉得buy & hold index fund不好。但是它只是投资策略之一(当然是一个 : 很重要的策略),我只是反对把它教条化。 : 新手在没有很多知识和技巧的时候,坚定地buy & hold index fund,可以轻松拿到 : market average return rate。而且华尔街操纵市场的各种策略,对buy & hold index : fund基本上都没用。打个比方来说,这好比是下围棋的时候因为棋盘对称,你跟着对 : 手下模仿棋。你如果自己水平不行,下模仿棋一般不会输很多。重要的是,哪怕对面碰 : 上的是9段高手,模仿棋也照样是能下的。因此,buy & hold index fund对普通人来说 : 是一个非常重要而且实用的投资策略。 : 而且,buy & hold index fund的策略可以有很多简单的衍生策略。稍微做点研究就不 : 难掌握。比如,在mortgage rate低的时候,你可以做cash out refinance,把钱拿出
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L*******n 发帖数: 3169 | 8 bond和stock短期是负相关的,看长期其实是正相关的。你看过去四十年,就是债市上
涨推动融资成本降低,加上导致股市平均市盈率上升造成的。这条路已经到头了
【在 p*****y 的大作中提到】 : 再来敲打敲打你吧, 看你很自以为是。 : 如果你看看历史, 你就会知道mortgage rate和10 yr treasury是强正相关, 和 : equity market是弱负相关, 也就是说mortgage : rate低的时候正好是经济不好的时候, equity market expected return很差的时候 : , 这个时候你用refi拿钱出来炒股leverage up, 一般情况是找死。 如果你从09年开 : 始就这么做了, 恭喜你hit了jackpot, 因为你遇上了百年一遇的和bond market正相 : 关的牛市, 不过劝你一句:下次别再赌了, 看明白了再上。 : btw: 别一上来就摆出老手训小弟的架势, 板上懂的比你多的人有的是,虚心一点不是 : 坏处。 你帖子里面对investing的认识很多是错的, 你不虚心学迟早会pay的。 :
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B*Q 发帖数: 25729 | 9 大部分买进卖出不亦乐乎的
都是给庄稼送钱的
还都以为自己是不平凡的一小撮 |
m*********y 发帖数: 1890 | 10 自以为还好,楼主还要出来嚷嚷"新手不敢脱离buy & hold.."
【在 B*Q 的大作中提到】 : 大部分买进卖出不亦乐乎的 : 都是给庄稼送钱的 : 还都以为自己是不平凡的一小撮
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f*******e 发帖数: 5277 | 11 不敢脱离buy & hold大盘的,确实是新手,有什么问题么?新手又不是不能赚钱。当然
胡乱买卖最后跑不赢大盘的,根本就是失败,连新手都不如。
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】 : 自以为还好,楼主还要出来嚷嚷"新手不敢脱离buy & hold.."
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E******w 发帖数: 2616 | 12 这只是对“新手”的定义而已。拿围棋做比喻,业余3段也未必就能很好地对付模仿棋
。但是,成天下模仿棋的肯定不敢大言不惭地说自己是高手。
股市不大一样,一堆华尔街的人为了收管理费把buy & hold捧为了圣典。而且本来算是
重要策略之一的也只有buy & hold index fund。现在似乎是个fund华尔街就鼓吹要buy
& hold。你看看,就是在这个版,虽然大家都统一反对我,可是内部也不都认为只应
该hold index fund的吧。其实华尔街的收费模式和他们鼓吹的理论是有很强的相关性
的。不过这需要对历史做点研究才能想明白。
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】 : 自以为还好,楼主还要出来嚷嚷"新手不敢脱离buy & hold.."
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m*********y 发帖数: 1890 | 13 你还是混淆了 不得不buy&hold和选择如此
buy
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】 : 这只是对“新手”的定义而已。拿围棋做比喻,业余3段也未必就能很好地对付模仿棋 : 。但是,成天下模仿棋的肯定不敢大言不惭地说自己是高手。 : 股市不大一样,一堆华尔街的人为了收管理费把buy & hold捧为了圣典。而且本来算是 : 重要策略之一的也只有buy & hold index fund。现在似乎是个fund华尔街就鼓吹要buy : & hold。你看看,就是在这个版,虽然大家都统一反对我,可是内部也不都认为只应 : 该hold index fund的吧。其实华尔街的收费模式和他们鼓吹的理论是有很强的相关性 : 的。不过这需要对历史做点研究才能想明白。
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E******w 发帖数: 2616 | 14 我没有混淆。9段高手也有下模仿棋的,那也是主动选择的策略之一。但是9段高手这么
下,绝对不会是单纯的模仿,而是在等待机会。
模仿棋和buy&hold index一样,核心是采取一个保守策略。在看不清楚或者对自己与市
场搏杀的能力没有信心的前提下,保证拿到average return。但是,要记住,hold
index,你永远只是average。不能说着说着就自我感觉above average了。敢自称"高手
"的,至少都是认为自己是above average的。这个title和主动选则average return的
策略是矛盾的。因此我认为坚定hold index的,至少不能算高手。
我并不那么反对buy & hold index。人贵在有自知之明。就算是能做market timing,
也不是任何时刻任何环境下都能做到above average的。在看不清的时候退回average的
策略本来就是常用手法。不过愿意认真研究的,一般不会满足于average。我反对的是
把一个average的策略吹成圣典,搞得好像这是高手中的高手一样。这是华尔街希望大
家相信的。不是average策略本身该有的地位。
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】 : 你还是混淆了 不得不buy&hold和选择如此 : : buy
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m*********y 发帖数: 1890 | 15 有一定道理。但是你没有提到大多数散户的收益要显著低于市场平均值。从这个角度讲
,long term buy & hold在散户里算是不错的了。
另外股市是要拿数字说话的。你有没有数字支持你的理论呵?
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】 : 我没有混淆。9段高手也有下模仿棋的,那也是主动选择的策略之一。但是9段高手这么 : 下,绝对不会是单纯的模仿,而是在等待机会。 : 模仿棋和buy&hold index一样,核心是采取一个保守策略。在看不清楚或者对自己与市 : 场搏杀的能力没有信心的前提下,保证拿到average return。但是,要记住,hold : index,你永远只是average。不能说着说着就自我感觉above average了。敢自称"高手 : "的,至少都是认为自己是above average的。这个title和主动选则average return的 : 策略是矛盾的。因此我认为坚定hold index的,至少不能算高手。 : 我并不那么反对buy & hold index。人贵在有自知之明。就算是能做market timing, : 也不是任何时刻任何环境下都能做到above average的。在看不清的时候退回average的 : 策略本来就是常用手法。不过愿意认真研究的,一般不会满足于average。我反对的是
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E******w 发帖数: 2616 | 16 我的理论只是自己需要多研究多学习多验证啊。index是average,就说明有一部分人的
long term average是高于index的。虽然也许你能听到一两个他们亏损的故事,但是统
计的角度来说,因为你认为大部分人长期低于average,说明必然也有一部分人长期收
益高于average。这需要数据支持的吗?
其他的数据我没有。
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】 : 有一定道理。但是你没有提到大多数散户的收益要显著低于市场平均值。从这个角度讲 : ,long term buy & hold在散户里算是不错的了。 : 另外股市是要拿数字说话的。你有没有数字支持你的理论呵?
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m*********y 发帖数: 1890 | 17 "因为你认为大部分人长期低于average,说明必然也有一部分人长期收
益高于average。这需要数据支持的吗?"
这句貌似外行话。你自己想想...
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】 : 我的理论只是自己需要多研究多学习多验证啊。index是average,就说明有一部分人的 : long term average是高于index的。虽然也许你能听到一两个他们亏损的故事,但是统 : 计的角度来说,因为你认为大部分人长期低于average,说明必然也有一部分人长期收 : 益高于average。这需要数据支持的吗? : 其他的数据我没有。
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E******w 发帖数: 2616 | 18 我知道你想说的是很多人在手续费上消耗太多的因素。我觉得这个因素并不那么重要,
所以我的结论大致还是有道理的。(我承认推理不那么严格)
但是,401K里hold index fund也是有expense的,虽然很低。其次,按照前面大家给的
各种"用杠杆最后破产“的例子,显然大家心目中认为很多"loser"损失的主要不是手续
费。市场除开手续费,交易盈亏大致是平衡的。有输的就有赚的。有长期输的很惨的,
至少就有长期超过average的。甚至在期货期权这种高风险的市场也一样。而你的hold
index的策略,长期来看是不可能高于average的(tracking error除外)。那么那些长
期高于average的人使用的是什么策略呢?
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】 : "因为你认为大部分人长期低于average,说明必然也有一部分人长期收 : 益高于average。这需要数据支持的吗?" : 这句貌似外行话。你自己想想...
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m*********y 发帖数: 1890 | 19 投资小户和市场收益相差不是一点半点。所以你说的市场平均和投资平均是两个概念.
有兴趣可以搜搜。
常识了解一下再琢磨策略不迟.
hold
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】 : 我知道你想说的是很多人在手续费上消耗太多的因素。我觉得这个因素并不那么重要, : 所以我的结论大致还是有道理的。(我承认推理不那么严格) : 但是,401K里hold index fund也是有expense的,虽然很低。其次,按照前面大家给的 : 各种"用杠杆最后破产“的例子,显然大家心目中认为很多"loser"损失的主要不是手续 : 费。市场除开手续费,交易盈亏大致是平衡的。有输的就有赚的。有长期输的很惨的, : 至少就有长期超过average的。甚至在期货期权这种高风险的市场也一样。而你的hold : index的策略,长期来看是不可能高于average的(tracking error除外)。那么那些长 : 期高于average的人使用的是什么策略呢?
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S**C 发帖数: 2964 | |
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m*********y 发帖数: 1890 | |
w***n 发帖数: 1519 | 22 Funny that I was going to search for this post.
Average investors are too dumb to have performance close to the "averages".
I don't believe the major drag of performance is from fund expense (or "
hidden fees"), slippage, commissions, or taxes, etc.
OP's statement: "新手在没有很多知识和技巧的时候,坚定地buy & hold index fund
..."
Quite on the contrary, newbies usually either don't have the conviction/
skill/stomach to really buy and hold, or they have strong egos that they are
going to find the holly grail and get rich by the next year.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】 : http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Investment/31305195_3.html
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r****m 发帖数: 1204 | 23 说得不错, 新手往往不会buy & hold index fund, 一般都认为自己有几把刷子, 如
果刚好又赢了几次, 那就基本不知天高地厚了, 而这一般也就是disaster的开始。
只有真正认识到market的厉害了, 才会老老实实考虑buy & hold index fund。
到中年甚至快退休前, 钱和经验都积累了够多了, 又会考虑actively trade the
market (看过一个统计, average professional traders' age is 50. Here the
pros are the people who work for themselves, not the young traders who work
for the big firms).
炒股最重要的是mind set right, 然后再谈方法。 |
E******w 发帖数: 2616 | 24 著名而又神秘的“新手”和"average investor",他怎么就不能从这些讨论中提高一点
智商,常年累月范同样的错误呢。。。呵呵
work
【在 r****m 的大作中提到】 : 说得不错, 新手往往不会buy & hold index fund, 一般都认为自己有几把刷子, 如 : 果刚好又赢了几次, 那就基本不知天高地厚了, 而这一般也就是disaster的开始。 : 只有真正认识到market的厉害了, 才会老老实实考虑buy & hold index fund。 : 到中年甚至快退休前, 钱和经验都积累了够多了, 又会考虑actively trade the : market (看过一个统计, average professional traders' age is 50. Here the : pros are the people who work for themselves, not the young traders who work : for the big firms). : 炒股最重要的是mind set right, 然后再谈方法。
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M********r 发帖数: 278 | 25 I started investing in 2000. was in school. didn't have money. lived in a
shitty apartment in a shitty neighborhood. Everybody was talking about
stocks. Cisco, Juniper, Broadcom, JDSU, verisign, you name it. Oh yeh, pets.
com. I was probably born cautious. I somehow on the first day made up my
mind: I am not going to touch individual stocks. But the market was going up
everyday. couldn't resist. So I decided to buy MF. What was the biggest
name in MF business that time? Janus. The greek god with two faces. I
figured buying a MF would be a good way to diversity with limited capital (
a couple of thousand, that is). No big deal. So I picked two fund: Janus
Olympus, and janus Life science. Got in around March. Just in for the last
leg of a crazy market. I saw my money grew 30% in a month or so. At one
point, I actually called up Janus and told them to keep up with the great
job. Then market started to crash, no big deal i thought, because one day
the headline said " Janus saved the market". On a huge down day in the
afternoon, the manager of the Janus Fund decided it's a good time to buy. So
he did. Big time. So much so that market rebounded. problem is the that was
not a good time to buy. Bigger problem is that Janus ran 4 or five large
cap growth funds. The managers apparently had similar mindset. They bought
the same thing. And they were big. Most of them were over couple of billions
. The made concentrated bets on a handful of go-go stocks and accumulated,
as a firm, huge positions of some no so big companies. The result? Janus was
not nimble. they had no way to get out certain positions without running
the risk of crashing the market. To investor liek me, this means I was not
diversified as I thought I was. I was watching my holding got huge haircut.
Then I thought I needed to be more diversified. Cannot just be in a couple
of large cap growth funds. So I picked one mid cap Janus strategic. A semi
quant fund that emphasized value over momentum. So I doubled down. still
confident. You have to give me credit. I was a novice and I was fearless,
Did n't have a freaking idea what I was in for. Market keeps going down
after a year. then two. I read books, watched CNBC, and tried to figured
what went wrong. Then I started to learn about asset allocation and realized
that buying a few large + mid funds was nowhere near real diversification.
Need bonds, I thought. So I acted on it. Early 2003, the market was about to
take off. I decided to switch to a balanced fund. So basically I resisted
selling during the whole bear market and changed my mind to reduce risk when
in hindsight I should " risk on". So I suffered 2nd blow. My performance
was way behind. At the same time I read more. Started to understand many
things That I heard before but never bothered to follow. I started to put
following words together: asset allocation, buy and hold, passive, index
funds,Vanguard. I never had a moment of epiphany. But gradually I realized
how I was wrong. It was humbling to realize that I was no good at this.
around 2004, I moved everything to vanguard and start building a balanced
portfolio using index and a few active funds to cover entire market. I still
lost a lot during the financial crisis. But I knew I will be just fine and
kept DCAing. I dont think I know everything about market, I don't use
leverage. dont trade options. I have a gigantic individual stock portfolio
of $100 (5 stocks $20 each) I did horribly. But I think my knowledge about
financial markets is enough for a non-professional regular Joe. |
E******w 发帖数: 2616 | 26 I heard the following rules from a friend:
The challenges of stock trading and market timing are that
1. Before you start, you have to realize that, some time down the road, you
will lose big. Big enough to make you feel that the sky will fall.
2. If you are smart enough to realize that before you start, it is a
challenge to still start learning how to trade, and to carefully learn from
your own bloody mistakes
3. It is even harder to still believe you can make it after you lose big.
Many people are too optimistic before they start, and they quit long before
they can actually see the sunrise.
Overall, stock trading, especially market timing, is not for the average.
You have to have enough confidence about your own capability, but in the
meantime, you have to also pay enough respect to the market.
pets.
up
(
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】 : I started investing in 2000. was in school. didn't have money. lived in a : shitty apartment in a shitty neighborhood. Everybody was talking about : stocks. Cisco, Juniper, Broadcom, JDSU, verisign, you name it. Oh yeh, pets. : com. I was probably born cautious. I somehow on the first day made up my : mind: I am not going to touch individual stocks. But the market was going up : everyday. couldn't resist. So I decided to buy MF. What was the biggest : name in MF business that time? Janus. The greek god with two faces. I : figured buying a MF would be a good way to diversity with limited capital ( : a couple of thousand, that is). No big deal. So I picked two fund: Janus : Olympus, and janus Life science. Got in around March. Just in for the last
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u****e 发帖数: 99 | 27 Thanks MinaHarker. You deserve credit for both groping your way out of
darkness and for writing up your story. This will help others. And I think
you must have found out your comfort zone with 60/40 allocation. Mine is
higher than that, and I have doubt what my actual response would be at next
downturn. Although I didn't do anything silly in 2008-2009, the stake at
risk was much smaller back then.
Sometimes I wonder why I stay on this board. I cannot convince the market
timers, and vice versa. If I want education and entertainment, I find other
places.
But I got my second piece of advice from this board many years ago. The
first one was from a friend: open a Roth IRA. Then I came to this board and
somebody gave a quick recommendation: you will not do wrong by going to
vanguard and buy a target retirement fund. I should be eternally thankful to
that person.
Years later I no longer use target fund since I built my own 3-fund
portfolio, but I am still thankful to that simple advice somebody gave me.
Maybe that's why I am still here.
pets.
up
(
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】 : I started investing in 2000. was in school. didn't have money. lived in a : shitty apartment in a shitty neighborhood. Everybody was talking about : stocks. Cisco, Juniper, Broadcom, JDSU, verisign, you name it. Oh yeh, pets. : com. I was probably born cautious. I somehow on the first day made up my : mind: I am not going to touch individual stocks. But the market was going up : everyday. couldn't resist. So I decided to buy MF. What was the biggest : name in MF business that time? Janus. The greek god with two faces. I : figured buying a MF would be a good way to diversity with limited capital ( : a couple of thousand, that is). No big deal. So I picked two fund: Janus : Olympus, and janus Life science. Got in around March. Just in for the last
|
E******w 发帖数: 2616 | 28 Thanks MinaHarker for sharing your story. I apologize that I can't share
mine in return since if I do that, I will reveal my real identity. But,
overall, everyone has to find his/her own comfortable zone eventually.
Trading is something no one can really avoid in this country. Either way, we
will have to deal with it.
pets.
up
(
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】 : I started investing in 2000. was in school. didn't have money. lived in a : shitty apartment in a shitty neighborhood. Everybody was talking about : stocks. Cisco, Juniper, Broadcom, JDSU, verisign, you name it. Oh yeh, pets. : com. I was probably born cautious. I somehow on the first day made up my : mind: I am not going to touch individual stocks. But the market was going up : everyday. couldn't resist. So I decided to buy MF. What was the biggest : name in MF business that time? Janus. The greek god with two faces. I : figured buying a MF would be a good way to diversity with limited capital ( : a couple of thousand, that is). No big deal. So I picked two fund: Janus : Olympus, and janus Life science. Got in around March. Just in for the last
|
w***n 发帖数: 1519 | 29 It was nice reading your story. Thanks for sharing.
pets.
up
(
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】 : I started investing in 2000. was in school. didn't have money. lived in a : shitty apartment in a shitty neighborhood. Everybody was talking about : stocks. Cisco, Juniper, Broadcom, JDSU, verisign, you name it. Oh yeh, pets. : com. I was probably born cautious. I somehow on the first day made up my : mind: I am not going to touch individual stocks. But the market was going up : everyday. couldn't resist. So I decided to buy MF. What was the biggest : name in MF business that time? Janus. The greek god with two faces. I : figured buying a MF would be a good way to diversity with limited capital ( : a couple of thousand, that is). No big deal. So I picked two fund: Janus : Olympus, and janus Life science. Got in around March. Just in for the last
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