w*r
发帖数: 11 | 1 刚工作的小白，请大牛们帮忙看下分配合不合理。
我的分配：
Vanguard Value Index Fund Admiral Shares VVIAX 0506 20.00%
Vanguard Growth Index Fund Admiral Shares VIGAX 0509 30.00%
Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares VFIAX 0540 40.00%
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund VBTLX 0584 10.00%
可选funds：
Short-Term Reserves
Vanguard Prime Money Mkt Fund VMMXX 0.16%
Vanguard Retire Savings Trust IV — 0.43%
Bond Funds
Vanguard Tot Intl Bond Ix Admiral VTABX 0.19%
Vanguard Total Bond Mkt Index Adm VBTLX 0.07%
Domestic Stock Funds
Vanguard Extended Mkt Index Adm VEXAX 0.10%
Vanguard Growth Index Fund Adm VIGAX 0.09%
Vanguard Morgan Growth Fund Adm VMRAX 0.26%
Vanguard Value Index Fund Adm VVIAX 0.09%
Vanguard Windsor II Fund Adm VWNAX 0.28%
Vanguard 500 Index Fund Adm VFIAX 0.05%
International Stock Funds
Vanguard Tot Intl Stock Ix Admiral VTIAX 0.14%
Vanguard Target Retirement Income VTINX 0.16%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2010 VTENX 0.16%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2015 VTXVX 0.16%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2020 VTWNX 0.16%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2025 VTTVX 0.17%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 VTHRX 0.17%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2035 VTTHX 0.18%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 VFORX 0.18%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 VTIVX 0.18%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2050 VFIFX 0.18%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 VFFVX 0.18%
Vanguard Target Retirement 2060 VTTSX 0.18% |
s******e
发帖数: 2181 | 2 最近股市萎靡，买啥都不保险，也许还要亏。
建议大多数时间都持stable value cash，你的Short-Term Reserves也许类似。然后等
时机，靠投机赚一笔，然后立刻再买回stable value。
我星期三看见纳指冲高，本打算sold out funds全转成stable value，结果被manager
喊去开会，一转身忘了这件事，结果周四跌惨了，损失一千刀。。。。：（ |
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 3 Your current allocation is fine except there is some redundancy. If I were
you, I would simply use 500 index (90%) and total bond index (10%). If you
want to have a value or growth tilt, then add either value index or growth
index.
You may also include international and US small cap to your portfolio. But
it's totally fine without them
Your current bond percentage is 10%. So you have to understand this is a
very aggressive allocation and you should be prepared for the consequence.
As long as you are ok with the risk level, 10% even 0% bond allocation
shouldn't be a problem.
401K is for retirement. The worst thing you can do is to time the market and
do it wrong. You can probably time the market correctly once in while. But
ask yourself: can I time the market correctly every time?
【在 w*r 的大作中提到】
: 刚工作的小白，请大牛们帮忙看下分配合不合理。
: 我的分配：
: Vanguard Value Index Fund Admiral Shares VVIAX 0506 20.00%
: Vanguard Growth Index Fund Admiral Shares VIGAX 0509 30.00%
: Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares VFIAX 0540 40.00%
: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund VBTLX 0584 10.00%
: 可选funds：
: Short-Term Reserves
: Vanguard Prime Money Mkt Fund VMMXX 0.16%
: Vanguard Retire Savings Trust IV — 0.43%
|
s******e
发帖数: 2181 | 4 It's always easy to time the market for a short term to earn small money.
Cumulating will end up with a considerable profit.
Broad allocations do reduce the risk of losing money, but you truss yourself
up with the Index. Especially that when it is so clear that the Index will
be falling, you will be definitely losing money if still hold an old
strategy of past a few years. Time is changed. Find an appropriate strategy
for present.
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: Your current allocation is fine except there is some redundancy. If I were
: you, I would simply use 500 index (90%) and total bond index (10%). If you
: want to have a value or growth tilt, then add either value index or growth
: index.
: You may also include international and US small cap to your portfolio. But
: it's totally fine without them
: Your current bond percentage is 10%. So you have to understand this is a
: very aggressive allocation and you should be prepared for the consequence.
: As long as you are ok with the risk level, 10% even 0% bond allocation
: shouldn't be a problem.
|
r***x
发帖数: 155 | 5 问一个问题，如果现在知道index is falling
应该怎样调整401K？
1. 已经投资到index fund的share，
a. 不动
b. 转成bond
2. 将来的投入
a. 不动，还是投到 index fund
b. 投到bond
什么的组合算是比较好呢
yourself
will
strategy
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: It's always easy to time the market for a short term to earn small money.
: Cumulating will end up with a considerable profit.
: Broad allocations do reduce the risk of losing money, but you truss yourself
: up with the Index. Especially that when it is so clear that the Index will
: be falling, you will be definitely losing money if still hold an old
: strategy of past a few years. Time is changed. Find an appropriate strategy
: for present.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 6 Says who? Someone who has been consistently doing it for 10+ years, or just
10+ months? There's a big difference, because the 10+ months guru hasn't
seen all that market can throw at him.
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: It's always easy to time the market for a short term to earn small money.
: Cumulating will end up with a considerable profit.
: Broad allocations do reduce the risk of losing money, but you truss yourself
: up with the Index. Especially that when it is so clear that the Index will
: be falling, you will be definitely losing money if still hold an old
: strategy of past a few years. Time is changed. Find an appropriate strategy
: for present.
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 7 not a good idea in my opinion.
be consistent. trying to outsmart the market will make you lose money fast.
yourself
will
strategy
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: It's always easy to time the market for a short term to earn small money.
: Cumulating will end up with a considerable profit.
: Broad allocations do reduce the risk of losing money, but you truss yourself
: up with the Index. Especially that when it is so clear that the Index will
: be falling, you will be definitely losing money if still hold an old
: strategy of past a few years. Time is changed. Find an appropriate strategy
: for present.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 8 I suggest to take a look at the target funds. Even if you want to do it
yourself, the target funds give you a good reference on what exposure you
may consider. They are probably using four funds, if they haven't made
changes since last time I looked, which you can check yourself:
1. Total domestic stocks
2. Total intl stocks
3. Total domestic bonds
4. Total intl bonds
You don't have a total domestic index, but you can use Vanguard 500 Index
and extended market to build one yourself.
As MinaHarker pointed out, the risk level is tricky. It'll probably take at
least a full market cycle to let you really understand how much risk you can
take, or for that matter, whether you have a sound strategy. One extended
bull market makes lots of guys thinking they don't need bonds, or even
themselves are genius and know how to time the market. This recency bias is
dangerous.
Having said that, 10% or 0% bond should be okay if you can stomach the
volatility. When you are young, your salary and monthly contribution allow
you to keep accumulating and to be aggressive. |
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 9 target funds are not a good place to place your money. you are making fund
managers rich.
study each fund and adjust accordingly based on your market assessment.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: I suggest to take a look at the target funds. Even if you want to do it
: yourself, the target funds give you a good reference on what exposure you
: may consider. They are probably using four funds, if they haven't made
: changes since last time I looked, which you can check yourself:
: 1. Total domestic stocks
: 2. Total intl stocks
: 3. Total domestic bonds
: 4. Total intl bonds
: You don't have a total domestic index, but you can use Vanguard 500 Index
: and extended market to build one yourself.
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 10 With VG target retirement funds, you get exposure to a basket of great index
funds, automatic rebalacing and age dependent risk adjustment. And all
these comes with a mere cost of 0.18%. I would argue this is a bargain. of
course I can manage my own portfolio and save 10 basis points. but for
novices or those who would rather spend time on other things, these funds
are great investment vehicles. Fund managers do make good money. Many don't
deserve it. But for low cost good services such as the VG target date funds,
I just cant see why one would feel being ripped off.
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: target funds are not a good place to place your money. you are making fund
: managers rich.
: study each fund and adjust accordingly based on your market assessment.
|
|
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 11 well said.
index
t
funds,
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: With VG target retirement funds, you get exposure to a basket of great index
: funds, automatic rebalacing and age dependent risk adjustment. And all
: these comes with a mere cost of 0.18%. I would argue this is a bargain. of
: course I can manage my own portfolio and save 10 basis points. but for
: novices or those who would rather spend time on other things, these funds
: are great investment vehicles. Fund managers do make good money. Many don't
: deserve it. But for low cost good services such as the VG target date funds,
: I just cant see why one would feel being ripped off.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 12 Vanguard has a different structure than others. It's owned by its funds/
clients. That's why even the target funds incur very low cost. The target
funds in my 401K plan all have an ER of 0.06%. It's next to impossible for
retail investors to beat that else where.
I do still avoid target funds, but it's for other reasons. I don't like that
a committee can decide what I own in my portfolio. One day they decide it's
a good idea to own international bonds and then I'll have to own that? I
like to cherry pick.
Still, for novice who doesn't have much of a clue how/what to invest, VG
target funds are among the best choices. |
s******e
发帖数: 2181 | 13 taget funds是稳一些，但expense高
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: I suggest to take a look at the target funds. Even if you want to do it
: yourself, the target funds give you a good reference on what exposure you
: may consider. They are probably using four funds, if they haven't made
: changes since last time I looked, which you can check yourself:
: 1. Total domestic stocks
: 2. Total intl stocks
: 3. Total domestic bonds
: 4. Total intl bonds
: You don't have a total domestic index, but you can use Vanguard 500 Index
: and extended market to build one yourself.
|
s******e
发帖数: 2181 | 14 不动和stock fund之间滚动。不管1还是2
不动是为了falling的时候守住你的家财
切换进stock fund需要等待和看准时机，每次falling到一个点后总会有些反弹，顺势
捞上一笔。
4M兄的建议是从来不买bond
【在 r***x 的大作中提到】
: 问一个问题，如果现在知道index is falling
: 应该怎样调整401K？
: 1. 已经投资到index fund的share，
: a. 不动
: b. 转成bond
: 2. 将来的投入
: a. 不动，还是投到 index fund
: b. 投到bond
: 什么的组合算是比较好呢
:
|
s******e
发帖数: 2181 | 15 those who don't like adjust their investment strategy to catch up with the
time will definitely lose money. There's no strategy can work for 10+ years
consistently.
just
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Says who? Someone who has been consistently doing it for 10+ years, or just
: 10+ months? There's a big difference, because the 10+ months guru hasn't
: seen all that market can throw at him.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 16 0.06% or even 0.18% is not high by any standard.
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: taget funds是稳一些，但expense高
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 17 Buy and hold is a time tested, winning strategy. What can be better than
that over a long time? Capturing MAJOR turning points and then buy and hold,
which is possible but very difficult and not for everyone.
There sure can be other winning strategies, but if you are focusing on day-
to-day fluctuations, and even panicking over some funds' dividend
distribution, I can tell you it won't work. It's not even a strategy imo. I
know you are going to say you made money doing so. Wait for at least a few
more years. That's why I brought up the 10+ years vs 10+ months.
years
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: those who don't like adjust their investment strategy to catch up with the
: time will definitely lose money. There's no strategy can work for 10+ years
: consistently.
:
: just
|
s******e
发帖数: 2181 | 18 buy and hold是寄望于股票长期是看涨的。在股市如此之高的今天，有句老话，叫好汉
不吃眼前亏。虽然相信就算股灾之后一定还能扳回来，但如果能在跳水之前稳住自己的
阵脚，而在股市回升的时候你放开脚步跟上，那就可以比一直hold的人挣更多。
very difficult不能成为不学习、甚至懒惰的理由。there's always a trade off
between 赚更多and更舒服。
hold,
I
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Buy and hold is a time tested, winning strategy. What can be better than
: that over a long time? Capturing MAJOR turning points and then buy and hold,
: which is possible but very difficult and not for everyone.
: There sure can be other winning strategies, but if you are focusing on day-
: to-day fluctuations, and even panicking over some funds' dividend
: distribution, I can tell you it won't work. It's not even a strategy imo. I
: know you are going to say you made money doing so. Wait for at least a few
: more years. That's why I brought up the 10+ years vs 10+ months.
:
: years
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 19 "buy and hold是寄望于股票长期是看涨的"
That's not the entire point. One important missing part is that mistiming
can be very costly. As I was saying, capturing the major turning points can
be better than buy and hold, but you need to be able to do it, consistently,
in the first place. Jumping in and out and focusing on day-to-day
fluctuations are self-destructing to the portfolio. Have you been trading
long enough to have experienced some sort of losing streaks? If you have,
you will understand what I said. If not, wait to see the effects of luck
getting averaged out a bit first. A couple of full market/economic cycles
will do. At the bare minimum, have you at least back-tested your strategy
for a few decades? If you don't have a clearly-defined one, but are instead
just making instantaneous decisions on the fly, that's just fear/greed
taking place.
Either way, I wish you luck trading whatever way you want.
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: buy and hold是寄望于股票长期是看涨的。在股市如此之高的今天，有句老话，叫好汉
: 不吃眼前亏。虽然相信就算股灾之后一定还能扳回来，但如果能在跳水之前稳住自己的
: 阵脚，而在股市回升的时候你放开脚步跟上，那就可以比一直hold的人挣更多。
: very difficult不能成为不学习、甚至懒惰的理由。there's always a trade off
: between 赚更多and更舒服。
:
: hold,
: I
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 20 buy fear sell greed. it's that easy. but can you do it?
can
consistently,
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: "buy and hold是寄望于股票长期是看涨的"
: That's not the entire point. One important missing part is that mistiming
: can be very costly. As I was saying, capturing the major turning points can
: be better than buy and hold, but you need to be able to do it, consistently,
: in the first place. Jumping in and out and focusing on day-to-day
: fluctuations are self-destructing to the portfolio. Have you been trading
: long enough to have experienced some sort of losing streaks? If you have,
: you will understand what I said. If not, wait to see the effects of luck
: getting averaged out a bit first. A couple of full market/economic cycles
: will do. At the bare minimum, have you at least back-tested your strategy
|
|
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 21 Did I ever advocate "buy fear and sell greed"? And you are the one saying it
's easy. Why ask me?
I can't do it, and I won't. Honestly, I can't care less if others are
fearful or greedy. Market sentiment is never part of my decision process.
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: buy fear sell greed. it's that easy. but can you do it?
:
: can
: consistently,
|
w********1
发帖数: 266 | 22 this is such a dangerous statement to beginners....index is the only thing
that will never fall if you buy and hold....
yourself
will
strategy
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: It's always easy to time the market for a short term to earn small money.
: Cumulating will end up with a considerable profit.
: Broad allocations do reduce the risk of losing money, but you truss yourself
: up with the Index. Especially that when it is so clear that the Index will
: be falling, you will be definitely losing money if still hold an old
: strategy of past a few years. Time is changed. Find an appropriate strategy
: for present.
|
w********1
发帖数: 266 | 23 for me as a new bee in investment, it is not that i do not need the bond...i
just never find a good time to buy...i know i should never time the market
but i was waiting for the interest rat
e increase becomes concrete so the market is less chaotic...
that being said, one should just buy it today because speculation does not
matter for long term investors....
however conquering emotion is just very hard....
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: I suggest to take a look at the target funds. Even if you want to do it
: yourself, the target funds give you a good reference on what exposure you
: may consider. They are probably using four funds, if they haven't made
: changes since last time I looked, which you can check yourself:
: 1. Total domestic stocks
: 2. Total intl stocks
: 3. Total domestic bonds
: 4. Total intl bonds
: You don't have a total domestic index, but you can use Vanguard 500 Index
: and extended market to build one yourself.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 24 Years ago, an acquaintance (a rookie at the time) told me this: "How hard
can it be to make money in the stock market? You just buy low and sell high.
" That's just ignorant. He gets better and better and no longer says that
any more.
Every single year in the past a few, people have been saying: "Look, this
bull market has been going on for x years. The average duration of a bull
market is y years. It's about to crash very soon. In this May!... August, no
, September. Damn it, before Thanks Giving..." That's just as ignorant.
Market has a way to fool most of the participants for majority of the times,
especially for those always feel the urge of taking some actions and those
always need instant gratifications. I know most people believe they are
above average, and they are definitely the exceptions. The truth is they are
not, we are not, I am not. Buy and hold doesn't solve all the problems, but
at least it lets you focus on the big picture and don't get fooled as often
. |
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 25 timing doesn't matter? ask those who bought at 2000 top. it only takes them
15 years to get back to even.
.i
market
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: for me as a new bee in investment, it is not that i do not need the bond...i
: just never find a good time to buy...i know i should never time the market
: but i was waiting for the interest rat
: e increase becomes concrete so the market is less chaotic...
: that being said, one should just buy it today because speculation does not
: matter for long term investors....
: however conquering emotion is just very hard....
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 26 people have different ways to make money in the stock market. as long as
they make money. that's good strategy.
high.
no
times,
those
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Years ago, an acquaintance (a rookie at the time) told me this: "How hard
: can it be to make money in the stock market? You just buy low and sell high.
: " That's just ignorant. He gets better and better and no longer says that
: any more.
: Every single year in the past a few, people have been saying: "Look, this
: bull market has been going on for x years. The average duration of a bull
: market is y years. It's about to crash very soon. In this May!... August, no
: , September. Damn it, before Thanks Giving..." That's just as ignorant.
: Market has a way to fool most of the participants for majority of the times,
: especially for those always feel the urge of taking some actions and those
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 27 If you ask me, I would say bonds' valuation is much worse than stocks'. My
opinion doesn't matter, however. The expectation of interest rate hike has
been there for quite a while, what's happened is VNQ and TLT both had a good
run last year. Waiting on the side line actually costs a lot, although one
didn't really "lose" money on that bet. What could cost more is when one
eventually can't take it any more and jump in right before a correction and
then sell out near the bottom.
.i
market
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: for me as a new bee in investment, it is not that i do not need the bond...i
: just never find a good time to buy...i know i should never time the market
: but i was waiting for the interest rat
: e increase becomes concrete so the market is less chaotic...
: that being said, one should just buy it today because speculation does not
: matter for long term investors....
: however conquering emotion is just very hard....
|
w********1
发帖数: 266 | 28 well...that is what we call market cycle and no one can avoid that.
hopefully with dollar averaging and a diversified portfolio you suffer less.
..you have to suffer it to enjoy the average annual return of like 6% after
a decade....
the cost of timing is that you can NEVER pick the right timing plus timing
means trading more frequent so more trading costs...
the 101 lesson i learnt is that i am not Buffet and i am average and should
be happy with the average return...
them
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: timing doesn't matter? ask those who bought at 2000 top. it only takes them
: 15 years to get back to even.
:
: .i
: market
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 29 I agree with dollar cost average. but if you invest time to learn about
charting and buy fear sell greed. you can easily double your return than
just sitting on hands.
just my personal experience.
less.
after
should
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: well...that is what we call market cycle and no one can avoid that.
: hopefully with dollar averaging and a diversified portfolio you suffer less.
: ..you have to suffer it to enjoy the average annual return of like 6% after
: a decade....
: the cost of timing is that you can NEVER pick the right timing plus timing
: means trading more frequent so more trading costs...
: the 101 lesson i learnt is that i am not Buffet and i am average and should
: be happy with the average return...
:
: them
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 30 unless you fear losing money with your own hands.
less.
after
should
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: well...that is what we call market cycle and no one can avoid that.
: hopefully with dollar averaging and a diversified portfolio you suffer less.
: ..you have to suffer it to enjoy the average annual return of like 6% after
: a decade....
: the cost of timing is that you can NEVER pick the right timing plus timing
: means trading more frequent so more trading costs...
: the 101 lesson i learnt is that i am not Buffet and i am average and should
: be happy with the average return...
:
: them
|
|
|
w********1
发帖数: 266 | 31 that is right... i read biography of buffet...he spends like all day reading
financials and he studied a company for years before he buys it. once he
buys he seldomly sells...
how many ppl on this board has the time, energy and discipline? i know i do
not..all i can do is to pick some funds with low expense and expect an
average return...
you are not wrong...your experience will not be applicable to 80% of the
dumb busy people....
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: I agree with dollar cost average. but if you invest time to learn about
: charting and buy fear sell greed. you can easily double your return than
: just sitting on hands.
: just my personal experience.
:
: less.
: after
: should
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 32 people are not dumb. just lazy and afraid of losing.
I'm just not brave enough to quit my job and day trade. maybe that's a bad
idea. lol
reading
do
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: that is right... i read biography of buffet...he spends like all day reading
: financials and he studied a company for years before he buys it. once he
: buys he seldomly sells...
: how many ppl on this board has the time, energy and discipline? i know i do
: not..all i can do is to pick some funds with low expense and expect an
: average return...
: you are not wrong...your experience will not be applicable to 80% of the
: dumb busy people....
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 33 That I don't disagree. One caveat though, is to be careful not to confuse
luck with strategy effectiveness, and not to extrapolate outcomes during a
recent, particular period to a long run.
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: people have different ways to make money in the stock market. as long as
: they make money. that's good strategy.
:
: high.
: no
: times,
: those
|
w********1
发帖数: 266 | 34 well you must love market and trading as a hobby...
for me, as you said, i am lazy and i do not want to spend enormous time in
studying individual companies...plus i feel it is not efficient to use my
time in this way...
however, my goal is that i want to retire with some money and preserve the
wealth. so what i do? i read two investment books each year, to learn the
basics...
different ppl have different financial goal...and you do not need to take
excessive risk or spend more time than it is required to achieve it.
i am not greedy coz i know i am lazy and do not deserve buffet return...
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: people are not dumb. just lazy and afraid of losing.
: I'm just not brave enough to quit my job and day trade. maybe that's a bad
: idea. lol
:
: reading
: do
|
D********2
发帖数: 2153 | 35 00年 5000点买的nasdaq 到现在才刚刚出水呢, 15年 buy & hold = nothing, 还亏了
通货膨胀
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: buy and hold是寄望于股票长期是看涨的。在股市如此之高的今天，有句老话，叫好汉
: 不吃眼前亏。虽然相信就算股灾之后一定还能扳回来，但如果能在跳水之前稳住自己的
: 阵脚，而在股市回升的时候你放开脚步跟上，那就可以比一直hold的人挣更多。
: very difficult不能成为不学习、甚至懒惰的理由。there's always a trade off
: between 赚更多and更舒服。
:
: hold,
: I
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 36 I don't buy individual companies since our fundamental analysis is just a
waste of time. it's just too much risk.
once a NYSE floor trader asked me. when you go to the doctor. did the doctor
ask you how you feel first or they cut you up and check fundamentally you
have any problem. price action of a stock tell the story faster than the
fundamental change. from there on. I trade based on chart alone and only use
news and fundamental data for after the fact entertainment.
ever heard of sell the news and buy the rumor? when you know something. it's
too late in terms of trading.
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: well you must love market and trading as a hobby...
: for me, as you said, i am lazy and i do not want to spend enormous time in
: studying individual companies...plus i feel it is not efficient to use my
: time in this way...
: however, my goal is that i want to retire with some money and preserve the
: wealth. so what i do? i read two investment books each year, to learn the
: basics...
: different ppl have different financial goal...and you do not need to take
: excessive risk or spend more time than it is required to achieve it.
: i am not greedy coz i know i am lazy and do not deserve buffet return...
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 37 or investing for that matter. what the chances you could pick the next Apple
. and Apple now is possibly the next sony or blackberry in a few years.
doctor
use
's
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: I don't buy individual companies since our fundamental analysis is just a
: waste of time. it's just too much risk.
: once a NYSE floor trader asked me. when you go to the doctor. did the doctor
: ask you how you feel first or they cut you up and check fundamentally you
: have any problem. price action of a stock tell the story faster than the
: fundamental change. from there on. I trade based on chart alone and only use
: news and fundamental data for after the fact entertainment.
: ever heard of sell the news and buy the rumor? when you know something. it's
: too late in terms of trading.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 38 I provide a dead simple indicator that has 10% yearly gain backtested all
the way to 1923. Granted history doesn't always repeat itself. But I would
encourage every one to have an open mind whether market can be timed.
Because you can't doesn't mean no one can.
less.
after
should
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: well...that is what we call market cycle and no one can avoid that.
: hopefully with dollar averaging and a diversified portfolio you suffer less.
: ..you have to suffer it to enjoy the average annual return of like 6% after
: a decade....
: the cost of timing is that you can NEVER pick the right timing plus timing
: means trading more frequent so more trading costs...
: the 101 lesson i learnt is that i am not Buffet and i am average and should
: be happy with the average return...
:
: them
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 39 can you share that indicator so we all get rich? LOL.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: I provide a dead simple indicator that has 10% yearly gain backtested all
: the way to 1923. Granted history doesn't always repeat itself. But I would
: encourage every one to have an open mind whether market can be timed.
: Because you can't doesn't mean no one can.
:
: less.
: after
: should
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 40 You can find on ssrn.com, under the finance category, plenty of papers
published each year, conducting research on thousands and thousands of ideas
that could work. |
|
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 41 If investing is your hobby, you are missing out on the most exciting/
rewarding part in my opinion.
You don't need to be an accountant/chartist to understand how great and how
disruptive the products/services are when you see one.
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: I don't buy individual companies since our fundamental analysis is just a
: waste of time. it's just too much risk.
: once a NYSE floor trader asked me. when you go to the doctor. did the doctor
: ask you how you feel first or they cut you up and check fundamentally you
: have any problem. price action of a stock tell the story faster than the
: fundamental change. from there on. I trade based on chart alone and only use
: news and fundamental data for after the fact entertainment.
: ever heard of sell the news and buy the rumor? when you know something. it's
: too late in terms of trading.
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 42 especially nowadays, products are computerized and predictability is high.
how
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: If investing is your hobby, you are missing out on the most exciting/
: rewarding part in my opinion.
: You don't need to be an accountant/chartist to understand how great and how
: disruptive the products/services are when you see one.
|
s******e
发帖数: 2181 | 43 所以我反对一贯简单遵循buy&hold。如果是正从谷底爬出来，那这样走长线没问题。
而在已经达到上一个波峰的两倍的情况下，技术上来讲，应该转入保守、看一步走一步
的策略。
【在 D********2 的大作中提到】
: 00年 5000点买的nasdaq 到现在才刚刚出水呢, 15年 buy & hold = nothing, 还亏了
: 通货膨胀
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 44 And conviction. It is easy to say one is a value investor when the initial
purchase appreciates right off the bat, but if it continuously drops and
drops, (and as self-proclaimed value investor, he said to himself something
like he like it more when it went down, so he bought more). BUT it still
drops, to 30-40-50% off his cost base, and seemingly no catalyst within
sight. As an amateur, he probably will question himself and cut the loss, in
the name of "tax-loss harvesting", but never get back after realizing the
loss.
I know I will.
reading
do
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: that is right... i read biography of buffet...he spends like all day reading
: financials and he studied a company for years before he buys it. once he
: buys he seldomly sells...
: how many ppl on this board has the time, energy and discipline? i know i do
: not..all i can do is to pick some funds with low expense and expect an
: average return...
: you are not wrong...your experience will not be applicable to 80% of the
: dumb busy people....
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 45 and right after you cut. that stock shoots up 50%. lol
something
in
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: And conviction. It is easy to say one is a value investor when the initial
: purchase appreciates right off the bat, but if it continuously drops and
: drops, (and as self-proclaimed value investor, he said to himself something
: like he like it more when it went down, so he bought more). BUT it still
: drops, to 30-40-50% off his cost base, and seemingly no catalyst within
: sight. As an amateur, he probably will question himself and cut the loss, in
: the name of "tax-loss harvesting", but never get back after realizing the
: loss.
: I know I will.
:
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 46 13,34 EMA 周线交叉。我老提过好几次。自己不愿意动脑子罢了，觉得 DCA是天下最好
的策略就搞笑了，万一连跌三十年。我这策略还能挣钱， DCA行吗？
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: can you share that indicator so we all get rich? LOL.
|
s******e
发帖数: 2181 | 47 连跌30年倒是不可能，但是上周加上今天的大红线，不知道能不能敲醒小将们的梦。全
球经济普遍萎靡的情况下，你不可能独树一帜。我本以为执政党第3年，为了大选，起
码也会死撑到明年才会出现那么多次的连续红线日，可是最近两个月实在感到不妙
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 13,34 EMA 周线交叉。我老提过好几次。自己不愿意动脑子罢了，觉得 DCA是天下最好
: 的策略就搞笑了，万一连跌三十年。我这策略还能挣钱， DCA行吗？
|
w********1
发帖数: 266 | 48 you can look at the index return in the past it never depreciate 30 years in
a roll not even for 10 years...and that is the magic of buying and hold the
index...coz you get the time compounding value with lowest cost...
i am not saying that it is the best strategy in the world...but probably the
best for new bee and lazy ppl like me...
in this world...the reality is that more ppl think they are smarter than
they are and no one is willing to admit they are average joe....
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 13,34 EMA 周线交叉。我老提过好几次。自己不愿意动脑子罢了，觉得 DCA是天下最好
: 的策略就搞笑了，万一连跌三十年。我这策略还能挣钱， DCA行吗？
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 49 Not sure whether you realize this, but there is a big difference between
goodbug's method and your method.
That is a trend-following system, which if one follows that particular
signal, he would have been holding for quite several years (I don't even
need to look at the chart to know it probably never signaled a sell signal
in this bull cycle). In other words, you buy with an intention to hold
indefinitely, till you are forced out when the major trend changes. For a
good stock picker, that could mean significant outperformance, for periods
like this.
Panicking over a few days' weakness is a totally different story. These so-
called "大红线" happens all the time even during strongest secular bull
cycles. Even if you just joined the game and haven't experienced these
yourself, just take a look at a chart of any index or any big winning stock,
you will see plenty of occasions like that, only much more severe. Even if
you bought an AAPL when it first rolled out ipod, and again iphone, I bet
you would be selling within 2 weeks and not be able to make much money.
Trend following or momentum trading is not free though. It's just a tradeoff
. Max draw-down is controlled, which is a plus, but you run at the risk of
being whipsawed and churned. If there is truly a holy grail like that,
everyone would be super rich, except for the analysts because the fund
managers are just staring at charts by themselves and don't need fundamental
analysis. LOL
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: 连跌30年倒是不可能，但是上周加上今天的大红线，不知道能不能敲醒小将们的梦。全
: 球经济普遍萎靡的情况下，你不可能独树一帜。我本以为执政党第3年，为了大选，起
: 码也会死撑到明年才会出现那么多次的连续红线日，可是最近两个月实在感到不妙
|
w********1
发帖数: 266 | 50 just for my learning purposes...does a bogle head investor ever care the
trend? i feel you just buy and hold and you sell when you need the money (
like when you retire).
you will rebalance and adjust the portfolio when you age....although there
is theory that you adjust your asset allocation based on the economic trend.
..but it is beyond investment 101...
is my understanding above correct?
thanks a lot.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Not sure whether you realize this, but there is a big difference between
: goodbug's method and your method.
: That is a trend-following system, which if one follows that particular
: signal, he would have been holding for quite several years (I don't even
: need to look at the chart to know it probably never signaled a sell signal
: in this bull cycle). In other words, you buy with an intention to hold
: indefinitely, till you are forced out when the major trend changes. For a
: good stock picker, that could mean significant outperformance, for periods
: like this.
: Panicking over a few days' weakness is a totally different story. These so-
|
|
|
D********2
发帖数: 2153 | 51 你这个其实也是gamble, gamble 美国未来50年还是龙头老大,
in
the
the
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: you can look at the index return in the past it never depreciate 30 years in
: a roll not even for 10 years...and that is the magic of buying and hold the
: index...coz you get the time compounding value with lowest cost...
: i am not saying that it is the best strategy in the world...but probably the
: best for new bee and lazy ppl like me...
: in this world...the reality is that more ppl think they are smarter than
: they are and no one is willing to admit they are average joe....
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 52 I don't think a boglehead investor would care about trend/momentum, or any
other particular market anomaly. It's about investing with simplicity,
diversifying, and staying with the course.
Of course, many want to tweak and add some parameters into it,
so that they feel that this becomes now their own strategy, which should
have been optimized because most people are self-considered above average
and deserve outperformance for that.
I believe you'll be fine if you just stay true to the boglehead philosophy.
Momentum, however, is quite unique and interesting, if you understand the
risk and would like to explore some alternatives. Unlike other anomalies,
this one actually strengthens itself when more people follow. It's in human
nature.
trend.
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: just for my learning purposes...does a bogle head investor ever care the
: trend? i feel you just buy and hold and you sell when you need the money (
: like when you retire).
: you will rebalance and adjust the portfolio when you age....although there
: is theory that you adjust your asset allocation based on the economic trend.
: ..but it is beyond investment 101...
: is my understanding above correct?
: thanks a lot.
|
w********1
发帖数: 266 | 53 thanks a lot...consistent with my understanding...
The issue of being a boglehead investor is that it is against human nature.
i feel very hard to overcome my emotion, like fear to buy bond, fear to see
the volatility of vnq...and cannot help myself with some actively managed
funds....but i am glad my emotion prevents me from playing with momentum...
which is a game called "who is the next fool"....
.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: I don't think a boglehead investor would care about trend/momentum, or any
: other particular market anomaly. It's about investing with simplicity,
: diversifying, and staying with the course.
: Of course, many want to tweak and add some parameters into it,
: so that they feel that this becomes now their own strategy, which should
: have been optimized because most people are self-considered above average
: and deserve outperformance for that.
: I believe you'll be fine if you just stay true to the boglehead philosophy.
: Momentum, however, is quite unique and interesting, if you understand the
: risk and would like to explore some alternatives. Unlike other anomalies,
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 54 Good for you.
Learning about other methods/strategies, no matter whether I use them or not
, does help me understand the market better. A lot of fears are from not
knowing/understanding the subjects...
.
see
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: thanks a lot...consistent with my understanding...
: The issue of being a boglehead investor is that it is against human nature.
: i feel very hard to overcome my emotion, like fear to buy bond, fear to see
: the volatility of vnq...and cannot help myself with some actively managed
: funds....but i am glad my emotion prevents me from playing with momentum...
: which is a game called "who is the next fool"....
:
: .
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 55 So you kind of believing history will repeat itself. Then my indicator beats
DCA to death, any more objection? And look no further to Nasdaq in 2000 if
you believe buy and hold is a successful strategy.
in
the
the
【在 w********1 的大作中提到】
: you can look at the index return in the past it never depreciate 30 years in
: a roll not even for 10 years...and that is the magic of buying and hold the
: index...coz you get the time compounding value with lowest cost...
: i am not saying that it is the best strategy in the world...but probably the
: best for new bee and lazy ppl like me...
: in this world...the reality is that more ppl think they are smarter than
: they are and no one is willing to admit they are average joe....
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 56 Yes, trend following system will get killed in a pig market. But if there's
no trending, why do we talk about bull/bear market all the time? If you
believe history will repeat itself, then it's easy to pick an index that
trends historically. It's the same philosophy you believe B&H will give you
good return over the long run.
I don't mind people believing B&H. I am annoyed people believing B&H is the
holy grail while thinking timing market is suicide. I am not a 文科生 and I'
d trust backtest over any belief.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Not sure whether you realize this, but there is a big difference between
: goodbug's method and your method.
: That is a trend-following system, which if one follows that particular
: signal, he would have been holding for quite several years (I don't even
: need to look at the chart to know it probably never signaled a sell signal
: in this bull cycle). In other words, you buy with an intention to hold
: indefinitely, till you are forced out when the major trend changes. For a
: good stock picker, that could mean significant outperformance, for periods
: like this.
: Panicking over a few days' weakness is a totally different story. These so-
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 57 i don't think buy-and-hold a single stock index, be it nasdaq or sp500, is a
viable strategy. however buy and hold a diversified portfolio that includes
equity and bond, is time tested. Historical data suggests this will yield
annualized return around 6-7%, not spectacular, but certainly respectable,
especiually considering the fact that average investor cannot even beat 3
month t bill. I don't consider b&h is the holy grail either. But it is very
doable and fits most average joes, while market timing or trend following
requires knowledge, experience and most importantly conviction, which most
investors lack, and is a perfect recipe for losing money when poorly
executed. (To be fair, not every one can buy and hold. but it is certainly a
easier approach compared with market timing)
beats
if
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: So you kind of believing history will repeat itself. Then my indicator beats
: DCA to death, any more objection? And look no further to Nasdaq in 2000 if
: you believe buy and hold is a successful strategy.
:
: in
: the
: the
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 58 I thought I gave credit to trend following. I myself has been using it for
my individual stocks. What I'm not a big fan is jumping in and out
frequently.
The philosophy behind B&H to my understanding is as long as the economy or
the particular company will grow x amount over y years, it will take you
from A to B (the levels are of course vague). It doesn't matter during the
process how choppy or smooth the curve looks like. In fact, when valuation
becomes better because of fear/uncertainty/whatever reason, it creates
opportunities for you to add on your bets and benefit from it. I can't say
the same about trend following. Just saying... Gee...I'm still using trend
following to an extent, but at least I understand the limitations of these
strategies, not that I'm arguing for the sake of arguing.
I'm sure you did backtest, that's great. I'd venture to guess that most
smart guys that enjoy trading have had a crazy time doing all kinds of back
tests trying to find the holly grail. During the process, all kinds of
erroneous conclusions have been made when the fabulous model suddenly doesn'
t work for additional out-of-sample data, a different market, or a different
time period. Been there, done that. I'll just leave it that way.
s
you
the
I'
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Yes, trend following system will get killed in a pig market. But if there's
: no trending, why do we talk about bull/bear market all the time? If you
: believe history will repeat itself, then it's easy to pick an index that
: trends historically. It's the same philosophy you believe B&H will give you
: good return over the long run.
: I don't mind people believing B&H. I am annoyed people believing B&H is the
: holy grail while thinking timing market is suicide. I am not a 文科生 and I'
: d trust backtest over any belief.
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 59 no. the reason why bond is up for the last 30 years is interest rate been
dropping. so it's not tested in a raising rate environment for the next 30
years.
a
includes
very
a
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: i don't think buy-and-hold a single stock index, be it nasdaq or sp500, is a
: viable strategy. however buy and hold a diversified portfolio that includes
: equity and bond, is time tested. Historical data suggests this will yield
: annualized return around 6-7%, not spectacular, but certainly respectable,
: especiually considering the fact that average investor cannot even beat 3
: month t bill. I don't consider b&h is the holy grail either. But it is very
: doable and fits most average joes, while market timing or trend following
: requires knowledge, experience and most importantly conviction, which most
: investors lack, and is a perfect recipe for losing money when poorly
: executed. (To be fair, not every one can buy and hold. but it is certainly a
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 60 I am sure economy will grow. But you don't know if the index is a fair
reflection.
Nasdaq in 2000 is an example, DJI in 1929 is an example. Taiwan index in
1990s is an example. It's been 20+ years for Taiwan and it hasn't recovered.
At the end of the day, I'd take backtest over hearsay and personal
experience. Most traders lose money because they become emotional in front
of the market and they can't stick to their model. General market won't
change for a long time frame, because greed and fear are human nature and
they can't be changed, and no institute would be able to manipulate that
either.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: I thought I gave credit to trend following. I myself has been using it for
: my individual stocks. What I'm not a big fan is jumping in and out
: frequently.
: The philosophy behind B&H to my understanding is as long as the economy or
: the particular company will grow x amount over y years, it will take you
: from A to B (the levels are of course vague). It doesn't matter during the
: process how choppy or smooth the curve looks like. In fact, when valuation
: becomes better because of fear/uncertainty/whatever reason, it creates
: opportunities for you to add on your bets and benefit from it. I can't say
: the same about trend following. Just saying... Gee...I'm still using trend
|
|
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 61 http://theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com/post/122267738213/how-s
In this article the author back tested a 60/40 portfolio from 1926 to 2015
in two segments, 1926-1980, 1976-2015. Average returns in rolling ten year
periods are 8.8% (1926-2015), 7.1% (1926-1980), 10.6% (1976-2015) (note:
fed fund rate topped in 1981)
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/real-risk-6040-portfolio/
In the 2nd arttcle, the author tested a 60/40 portfolio from 1948-2014 and
found annualized returns are 8.1% (1948-1981) and 10.9% (1982-2014)
So it's safe to say that overall return of a 60/40 portfolio is around 7%,
regardless of interest rate cycles.
Of course, return in the downward interest rate cycle is better. also a 60/
40 portfolio returned less than 3% in five percent of all rolling ten-year
periods since 1926 and there were five separate ten-year periods where
returns were less than 1%. This says to me that a 60/40 portfolio is not 100
% all weather. Bit odds are pretty darn good (95%).
The 2nd paper also says that " (in terms of range of return), not much of a
difference between the rising and falling rate environments in these returns
. What’s interesting to note is that the worst 10 year returns for both
periods came right after huge bear markets in stocks – 1974 in the first
instance and 2008 in the second one. And this is the reason that bonds are
not the biggest risk to a 60/40 portfolio. It’s always going to be stocks
that carry the largest risks for investors"
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: no. the reason why bond is up for the last 30 years is interest rate been
: dropping. so it's not tested in a raising rate environment for the next 30
: years.
:
: a
: includes
: very
: a
|
