r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 1 In one of his books in Techical and Fundamental Analysis, Jack Schwager
tells to story of the technical analyst and the fundamental analyst having
dinner together. As the fundamental analyst reaches for his glass of wine,
his sleeve brushes his steak knife off the table. Both men watch as the
steak knife tumbles through the air, as if in slow motion, and sticks in the
fundamental analyst's foot.
"Why didn't you move your foot?" asked the technical analyst.
The fundamental analyst replied, "I was waiting for it to come back up."
Never try to catch a falling knife, or pick the bottom of a downtrend. You
will be wrong 85-90% of the time.
Let the market tell you when the time is right, with a series of higher lows
and higher highs. Don't try to be the one guy who picks the best price,
because a thousand guys will die trying.
There's a saying in the futures market: "The market can stay irrational
longer than you can stay solvent." | B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 2 美国股市的大底，都是尖的，就象刀尖。只有真正的有独到见识和勇气的人，赚到了最
多的钱。绝大多数小散心理的，看图看表面现象的，看过去而不看未来的。绝大多数的
人，理念和方法，却恰恰是反的，正是他们不断泡输的原因。
当然，他们仍然认同公认的定理。 | g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 3 没有人能预测底和顶在哪里。但是跟随趋势要容易得多。说到底，牛市做牛，熊市做熊
而已。
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: 美国股市的大底，都是尖的，就象刀尖。只有真正的有独到见识和勇气的人，赚到了最
: 多的钱。绝大多数小散心理的，看图看表面现象的，看过去而不看未来的。绝大多数的
: 人，理念和方法，却恰恰是反的，正是他们不断泡输的原因。
: 当然，他们仍然认同公认的定理。
| P***5
发帖数: 1089 | 4 投资/投机没有Never和Ever。
赚钱方式有很多种，但所有方式共通的、最重要的一点是风险控制。
接飞刀是捞底赚钱的必要成本，我接过最厉害的飞刀是初始4%的仓位水下2年，浮亏接
近一半。成功例子就更多了。 |
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