H****y
发帖数: 2992 | 1 Simulation的结果
消息来源
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/scientist-who-simulated-the-global-impact-
of-a-coronavirus-outbreak-says-the-cats-already-out-of-the-bag-and-chinas-
efforts-to-contain-the-disease-unlikely-to-be-effective-2020-01-24?mod=mw_
latestnews
Scientist and scholar Eric Toner, quoted above in an excerpt from a Friday
interview with the business-news channel CNBC, explained that China’s
efforts to contain the current outbreak of a fast-moving upper-respiratory
illness are “unlikely to be effective.”
The comments come as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
confirmed a second case of coronavirus in the U.S.
Cases of the illness, which is related to SARS, or severe acute respiratory
syndrome, have now turned up in a number of countries beyond China, where
the illness originated in Wuhan City.
The number of infections has risen to at least 881, according to the Wall
Street Journal, citing Chinese state-run broadcaster China Central
Television. On top of that, the official death toll has risen to 26 from 17
yesterday. The Journal also reported that the outbreak was overwhelming
China’s local-area resources and hospitals.
Beijing has shut down parts of the Great Wall, as well as 16 cities,
restricting movement of some 46 million people, and canceling events related
to the Lunar New Year, one of the busiest periods of travel and consumerism
in the country.
Toner, an M.D. and researcher at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health
Security, took part in a simulation, undertaken in partnership with the
World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, that posited
such a disease could kill 65 million people within 18 months under the right
circumstances.
Coronaviruses, with SARS among that group, are infections of the respiratory
tract that can lead to illnesses like pneumonia or the common cold.
Toner told Business insider during an interview that he hasn’t completed
research on the current strain of the Wuhan coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV,
but said that the death toll could run in the millions if the influenza
were resistant to modern vaccines and was as easy to catch as the common flu.
Read: This is how far and fast the coronavirus has spread through U.S.
stocks
To be sure, an outbreak of SARS about 17 years ago claimed nearly 800 lives
and infected more than 8,000 people worldwide. However, the death toll from
that 2002-03 disease was nowhere near a million.
To put things into further perspective, the most virulent pandemic, the 1918
influenza, also known as the Spanish flu, killed an estimated 20 million to
50 million people.
Toner said that his coronavirus simulation “was not [focused primarily on]
the number of deaths; it was to point out that there could be societal and
economic consequences from a severe pandemic, not just health consequences.
” The simulation was also geared toward engendering international
cooperation, making the case that governments and private companies alone
can’t adequately respond to a pandemic.
One report estimates that a pandemic could cause an average annual economic
loss of 0.7% of global GDP — or $570 billion.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization on Thursday wasn’t sounding global
alarm bells about the illness either, declaring the coronavirus an
emergency in China but falling short of calling the outbreak an
international emergency. U.S. health officials also have said that the risk
domestically from the illness is low.
Check out: Here’s how the stock market has performed during past viral
outbreaks, as epidemic locks down 3 Chinese cities
However, the coronavirus was exacting a toll on the U.S. stock market. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.58% was last down about 200 points, or
0.7%, at 28,962 but had been as low as 28,843 in Friday trading. Meanwhile,
the S&P 500 SPX, -0.90% was last down 34 points, or 1%, at 3,290. The
Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.93% was off 97 points, or 1%, at 9,301,
after touching a fresh intraday high in early action.
Toner said the WHO may have made a mistake by not declaring 2019-nCoV an
international emergency.
Check out the CNBC interview below: |
H********g
发帖数: 43926 | |
n****4
发帖数: 12553 | 3 这6500万这个数字，我敢肯定套用的是6500万年前，就是彗星砸死恐龙的白垩纪某年
impact-
【在 H****y 的大作中提到】
: Simulation的结果
: 消息来源
: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/scientist-who-simulated-the-global-impact-
: of-a-coronavirus-outbreak-says-the-cats-already-out-of-the-bag-and-chinas-
: efforts-to-contain-the-disease-unlikely-to-be-effective-2020-01-24?mod=mw_
: latestnews
: Scientist and scholar Eric Toner, quoted above in an excerpt from a Friday
: interview with the business-news channel CNBC, explained that China’s
: efforts to contain the current outbreak of a fast-moving upper-respiratory
: illness are “unlikely to be effective.”
|
d****o
发帖数: 32610 | 4 其实就是每年流感数乘了个系数
系数是编的一个接近1的实数
【在 n****4 的大作中提到】
: 这6500万这个数字，我敢肯定套用的是6500万年前，就是彗星砸死恐龙的白垩纪某年
:
: impact-
|
j******l
发帖数: 2790 | 5 so far是不是没有白人被传染全是东亚裔的得病 |
H********g
发帖数: 43926 | 6 是的吧 全是中国出来的 而且不是新疆人
【在 j******l 的大作中提到】
: so far是不是没有白人被传染全是东亚裔的得病
|
H****y
发帖数: 2992 | 7 内部消息说康奈尔一个武汉学生病了，并且把roommate 传染了。不知道是老中老美。
其实我倒真希望白人或者黑人有免疫力，这对大家都好
: 是的吧 全是中国出来的 而且不是新疆人
【在 H********g 的大作中提到】
: 是的吧 全是中国出来的 而且不是新疆人
|
H********g
发帖数: 43926 | 8 不大可能有人种区别 这次的病毒 跟SARS区别很小 而且受体大概率还是sars的同一
个受体 所以如果SARS可以感染白人 这个应该也可以
我估计很快国内就会搞出一堆新病毒的晶体结构和电镜结构 为啥 因为跟以前做过的
东西基本一样
【在 H****y 的大作中提到】
: 内部消息说康奈尔一个武汉学生病了，并且把roommate 传染了。不知道是老中老美。
: 其实我倒真希望白人或者黑人有免疫力，这对大家都好
:
:
: 是的吧 全是中国出来的 而且不是新疆人
:
|
H********g
发帖数: 43926 | 9 新弃婴说法国第一例确诊的就是白人
【在 H****y 的大作中提到】
: 内部消息说康奈尔一个武汉学生病了，并且把roommate 传染了。不知道是老中老美。
: 其实我倒真希望白人或者黑人有免疫力，这对大家都好
:
:
: 是的吧 全是中国出来的 而且不是新疆人
:
|
H********g
发帖数: 43926 | 10 Bear
qiing (契旲)
6 97.* 1/25/20, 9:14:54 AM (25")
法国确诊的就是白皮。
【在 H********g 的大作中提到】
: 新弃婴说法国第一例确诊的就是白人
|
|
|
y****i
发帖数: 511 | 11 他说的消息，你证实过了么？
【在 H********g 的大作中提到】
: 新弃婴说法国第一例确诊的就是白人
|
H********g
发帖数: 43926 | 12 没必要
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: 他说的消息，你证实过了么？
|
H********g
发帖数: 43926 | 13 如果真是敌特投毒 京上广的人民要自省 我们做错了什么 害得你去大县城投毒
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: 他说的消息，你证实过了么？
|
y****i
发帖数: 511 | 14 第一，姐从来没觉得是美帝投毒的，这个说法太操蛋了。
第二，姐提问的时候没想那么多，只是单纯问你这个数据来源的可信度而已。
大家都读过哈佛的人了，平等自由博爱人权的条条款款都签了无数次了。不能这么点
common sense都不具备，LOL
【在 H********g 的大作中提到】
: 如果真是敌特投毒 京上广的人民要自省 我们做错了什么 害得你去大县城投毒
|
y****i
发帖数: 511 | 15 白人不容易得肝炎，但是亚裔容易得。这个能查到统计文献的。
白人皮肤光晒以后身上长斑点，但亚裔不会这样。
所以不一定是投毒造成的，就是人种的差异。
【在 H********g 的大作中提到】
: 不大可能有人种区别 这次的病毒 跟SARS区别很小 而且受体大概率还是sars的同一
: 个受体 所以如果SARS可以感染白人 这个应该也可以
: 我估计很快国内就会搞出一堆新病毒的晶体结构和电镜结构 为啥 因为跟以前做过的
: 东西基本一样
|
l*******r
发帖数: 39279 | 16 有白人，有个从武汉回法国的法国人
【在 j******l 的大作中提到】
: so far是不是没有白人被传染全是东亚裔的得病
|
l*******r
发帖数: 39279 | 17 哈哈哈
但是如果投上海，可能不会发展到现在这样
【在 H********g 的大作中提到】
: 如果真是敌特投毒 京上广的人民要自省 我们做错了什么 害得你去大县城投毒
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 18 你们都是只看标题的吗？
这里面最奇怪的是这个关于冠状病毒死亡人数的模拟是去年10月做的。
impact-
【在 H****y 的大作中提到】
: Simulation的结果
: 消息来源
: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/scientist-who-simulated-the-global-impact-
: of-a-coronavirus-outbreak-says-the-cats-already-out-of-the-bag-and-chinas-
: efforts-to-contain-the-disease-unlikely-to-be-effective-2020-01-24?mod=mw_
: latestnews
: Scientist and scholar Eric Toner, quoted above in an excerpt from a Friday
: interview with the business-news channel CNBC, explained that China’s
: efforts to contain the current outbreak of a fast-moving upper-respiratory
: illness are “unlikely to be effective.”
|
n****4
发帖数: 12553 | 19 白人要大规模杀伤，是有考虑的。比如原子弹就丢在广岛长崎，并不是东京大板
【在 H********g 的大作中提到】
: 如果真是敌特投毒 京上广的人民要自省 我们做错了什么 害得你去大县城投毒
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 20 九省通衢加领导昏庸，确实是最佳选择。始发地就在火车站附近。：）
【在 H********g 的大作中提到】
: 如果真是敌特投毒 京上广的人民要自省 我们做错了什么 害得你去大县城投毒
|
H********g
发帖数: 43926 | 21 要点链接 再点链接才能看到是去年10月的
这就是典型的冷饭新炒 凑个热闹 天天胡说 总有碰上的
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 你们都是只看标题的吗？
: 这里面最奇怪的是这个关于冠状病毒死亡人数的模拟是去年10月做的。
:
: impact-
|
r*******e
发帖数: 680 | 22 病毒受体似乎是血管紧张素转化酶ACE，就是心脏病药物ACEI的靶点。ACEI都是美国公
司开发的药。没听说ACE还有种族特异性。生物武器论可以休矣 |
