c******e 发帖数: 39 | 1 我怎么觉得跟自己的理解相反?难道是因为我们是小地方房子价格浮动不大,而且不太
贵? |
t**********e 发帖数: 119 | 2 风险与收益成正比。当时citi跌到1美刀的时候谁敢去买?结果胆子大,建仓的人现在
就赚翻了。你买不动产当然收益率不如股票,但是风险低多了。而且买了房子是在提高
自己的生活质量。 |
q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 3 我股票投资回报还可以,但是只敢放现金的1/10玩,买房子我就敢all in,mortgage就
是margin,总赚头还是房子多。 |
q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 4 对呀,一方面住的好了,一方面是风险不大的投资,加上diversify了你的总资产,退
休账户大部分都在股市吧?所以其他钱还是放房子好,收益很大一部分还免税
【在 t**********e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 风险与收益成正比。当时citi跌到1美刀的时候谁敢去买?结果胆子大,建仓的人现在 : 就赚翻了。你买不动产当然收益率不如股票,但是风险低多了。而且买了房子是在提高 : 自己的生活质量。
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t***z 发帖数: 5112 | |
m***y 发帖数: 14763 | 6 Hoho, your agent is pretty honest, but what's his motive? Is he also a
broker and sorta financial adviser? |
y*******w 发帖数: 5917 | 7 房价上涨其实是很慢的,尤其在美国这种地方,美国百年房价,扣除通货膨胀好像平均
每年上涨0.3%。但是由于现在的房子普遍比过去的要大,所以其实房价平均是不涨的。
又由于房子过几十年是要坏掉的,所以投资房产,如果不能充分出租的话,平均而言,
是肯定要亏本的。
【在 c******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我怎么觉得跟自己的理解相反?难道是因为我们是小地方房子价格浮动不大,而且不太 : 贵?
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c******e 发帖数: 39 | 8 no, he is just an agent. He is very nice.
He did consulting engineering for many years。 He said he and his wife
knew how to save money. He saved enough money and then came back to the town
where he grew up and relax (as a real estate agent). I guess he wanted us
not to exhaust our money in buying a house (不要死撑)。
【在 m***y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Hoho, your agent is pretty honest, but what's his motive? Is he also a : broker and sorta financial adviser?
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q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 9 我认识一老太太,年轻时候十几万买的房子,去年1米3卖掉了,卖的是地价,已经被推
倒重建。买房要买稀缺地段,肯定赚
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 房价上涨其实是很慢的,尤其在美国这种地方,美国百年房价,扣除通货膨胀好像平均 : 每年上涨0.3%。但是由于现在的房子普遍比过去的要大,所以其实房价平均是不涨的。 : 又由于房子过几十年是要坏掉的,所以投资房产,如果不能充分出租的话,平均而言, : 是肯定要亏本的。
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t**s 发帖数: 1393 | 10
well said
【在 t**********e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 风险与收益成正比。当时citi跌到1美刀的时候谁敢去买?结果胆子大,建仓的人现在 : 就赚翻了。你买不动产当然收益率不如股票,但是风险低多了。而且买了房子是在提高 : 自己的生活质量。
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y*******w 发帖数: 5917 | 11 你咋知道什么地方是稀缺地段?汽车化之前,downtown旁边一圈是稀缺地段,现在是黑
人和劳模的天下。
老太太说不定持有房子30年,根据网上数据,过去30年大约通膨一共4.5, 所以架设老太
太15万买的房子,通膨后就应当有68万.加上1998年后的房价泡沫累计翻倍,1.3M也就是
正常数字了。
从另外一个角度看,要么现在的房价泡沫没有挤光,要么是将有大规模的通货膨胀发生。
【在 q********m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我认识一老太太,年轻时候十几万买的房子,去年1米3卖掉了,卖的是地价,已经被推 : 倒重建。买房要买稀缺地段,肯定赚
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s*******i 发帖数: 741 | 12 Only a couple of cities are稀缺地段. In my town, there are plenty of empty
land.
【在 q********m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我认识一老太太,年轻时候十几万买的房子,去年1米3卖掉了,卖的是地价,已经被推 : 倒重建。买房要买稀缺地段,肯定赚
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b*****e 发帖数: 5476 | 13 是啊是啊,几十年前的几十万可不是小数啊,要知道70年代初普通轿车才2000多。
生。
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 你咋知道什么地方是稀缺地段?汽车化之前,downtown旁边一圈是稀缺地段,现在是黑 : 人和劳模的天下。 : 老太太说不定持有房子30年,根据网上数据,过去30年大约通膨一共4.5, 所以架设老太 : 太15万买的房子,通膨后就应当有68万.加上1998年后的房价泡沫累计翻倍,1.3M也就是 : 正常数字了。 : 从另外一个角度看,要么现在的房价泡沫没有挤光,要么是将有大规模的通货膨胀发生。
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q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 14 30年4.5%通胀,15万变成56万吧。再翻一倍才1.2米不到,如果放股市,她敢15万全进
去?交的税也比她房子收益税重,再说,她总归要住的,两个孩子全国数的上的好学区
上n年学,你算了没有?那块地方已经跌下来一些,再往下的空间不多,我也要住的,
所以就买了,嘻嘻。
生。
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 你咋知道什么地方是稀缺地段?汽车化之前,downtown旁边一圈是稀缺地段,现在是黑 : 人和劳模的天下。 : 老太太说不定持有房子30年,根据网上数据,过去30年大约通膨一共4.5, 所以架设老太 : 太15万买的房子,通膨后就应当有68万.加上1998年后的房价泡沫累计翻倍,1.3M也就是 : 正常数字了。 : 从另外一个角度看,要么现在的房价泡沫没有挤光,要么是将有大规模的通货膨胀发生。
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q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 15 那块地方没什么空地的,几乎都是推倒重建。我下offer的地,一查10几年没有建房,
吓的我马上要去county查历史,8要有什么问题,不过owner是80几岁老头,估计折腾不
动。
【在 s*******i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Only a couple of cities are稀缺地段. In my town, there are plenty of empty : land.
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y*******w 发帖数: 5917 | 16 小看通胀了,80年代通胀10%好几年.
【在 q********m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 30年4.5%通胀,15万变成56万吧。再翻一倍才1.2米不到,如果放股市,她敢15万全进 : 去?交的税也比她房子收益税重,再说,她总归要住的,两个孩子全国数的上的好学区 : 上n年学,你算了没有?那块地方已经跌下来一些,再往下的空间不多,我也要住的, : 所以就买了,嘻嘻。 : : 生。
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q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 17 股票在涨了多少?到2008年
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 小看通胀了,80年代通胀10%好几年.
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q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 18 我去看了一下上班30分钟高速的不错学区,看到空地,立刻turned off,决定死撑近
downtown贵区
【在 s*******i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Only a couple of cities are稀缺地段. In my town, there are plenty of empty : land.
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m***y 发帖数: 14763 | 19 Oh, man, don't even start it. That dude was lucky in cashing out before the
astronomical market crash.
【在 q********m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 股票在涨了多少?到2008年
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m***y 发帖数: 14763 | 20 Have you realized that your 认识一老太太 never need to 死撑 that house?
Usually, 死撑 means that house is already priced in or even worse,
overpriced. Not enough room for house price appreciation.
【在 q********m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我去看了一下上班30分钟高速的不错学区,看到空地,立刻turned off,决定死撑近 : downtown贵区
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q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 21 死撑是说着玩的,或者是texas定义的死撑,我们这里好多人房贷和年税前收入差不多
,那么我的case就是死撑。
【在 m***y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Have you realized that your 认识一老太太 never need to 死撑 that house? : Usually, 死撑 means that house is already priced in or even worse, : overpriced. Not enough room for house price appreciation.
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T*********e 发帖数: 9208 | 22 sun, ur pretax income is 600k? u don't need to come here, go find a personal
financial consulant
【在 q********m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 死撑是说着玩的,或者是texas定义的死撑,我们这里好多人房贷和年税前收入差不多 : ,那么我的case就是死撑。
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h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 23 买房是消费,不是投资,除非是出租房.
【在 c******e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我怎么觉得跟自己的理解相反?难道是因为我们是小地方房子价格浮动不大,而且不太 : 贵?
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y*******w 发帖数: 5917 | 24 股票2008年巨变,所以取中点,7/1, 10850, 三十年前7/1,2112, 涨5倍.
股票平均年分红3%, 所以买指数的话, 这个计算是这样的:
假设股票增长率30年不变,即平均增长5.61%,假如分红全部投入股市,则实际收益是8.
61%,30年后得到11.915倍。买指数基本上是hassle-free的。
房子如果用mortgage,那么就更糟糕了,80年代morgage rate可是>8%的。这也是为什
么那时候房价便宜的原因。
一句话,买房投资必须充分出租,否则统计意义上亏钱,不用说损失的机会成本了。根
据统计,充分出租的情况下,收益率在5%左右,仍然比不上股票。
【在 q********m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 股票在涨了多少?到2008年
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p*a 发帖数: 3350 | 25 赞理解力
personal
不多
【在 T*********e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : sun, ur pretax income is 600k? u don't need to come here, go find a personal : financial consulant
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q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 26 看看清楚啊,我说不死撑的工资和房贷一样,我死撑当然一年收入比房贷少啦,再说谁
贷60万啊,付jumbo利息
personal
【在 T*********e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : sun, ur pretax income is 600k? u don't need to come here, go find a personal : financial consulant
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q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 27 税呢?
就算今天,我也不敢拿15万放股市,因为已经有退休帐户在股市上了。
如果当年15万全部进股市,在股市收益上,你要扣除房租和小孩上一般私立(质量不比
那个区的公立好)的学费。
我家上一个房子,涨上去的钱,扣除地税维护等,比房租多一些(没算省的income tax
),但是持有房子几年,股市是下去了的,所以还是赚。也是在稀缺地段,uptown,但
是学区烂,否则就翻番了。
8.
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 股票2008年巨变,所以取中点,7/1, 10850, 三十年前7/1,2112, 涨5倍. : 股票平均年分红3%, 所以买指数的话, 这个计算是这样的: : 假设股票增长率30年不变,即平均增长5.61%,假如分红全部投入股市,则实际收益是8. : 61%,30年后得到11.915倍。买指数基本上是hassle-free的。 : 房子如果用mortgage,那么就更糟糕了,80年代morgage rate可是>8%的。这也是为什 : 么那时候房价便宜的原因。 : 一句话,买房投资必须充分出租,否则统计意义上亏钱,不用说损失的机会成本了。根 : 据统计,充分出租的情况下,收益率在5%左右,仍然比不上股票。
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h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 28 Right. It is laughable that people claim that they are "investing" in their
houses. If any investment that does not generate cashflow, you are not
investing in it. You are only hoping that a greater fool will come one day
and pay a higher price than you did. If no one comes, you are the greater
fool. (Unless, the price to rent ratio is very reasonable that you are just
avoiding rent payments with the house)
Over the long run, the housing price just keeps up with the wage-inflation,
there are dat
【在 y*******w 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 股票2008年巨变,所以取中点,7/1, 10850, 三十年前7/1,2112, 涨5倍. : 股票平均年分红3%, 所以买指数的话, 这个计算是这样的: : 假设股票增长率30年不变,即平均增长5.61%,假如分红全部投入股市,则实际收益是8. : 61%,30年后得到11.915倍。买指数基本上是hassle-free的。 : 房子如果用mortgage,那么就更糟糕了,80年代morgage rate可是>8%的。这也是为什 : 么那时候房价便宜的原因。 : 一句话,买房投资必须充分出租,否则统计意义上亏钱,不用说损失的机会成本了。根 : 据统计,充分出租的情况下,收益率在5%左右,仍然比不上股票。
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h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 29 It is rather stupid to use a sample of recent data to prove anything.
In 2006, people were saying that housing price never goes down and everybody
makes money by buying a house. How did that drama end?
tax
【在 q********m 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 税呢? : 就算今天,我也不敢拿15万放股市,因为已经有退休帐户在股市上了。 : 如果当年15万全部进股市,在股市收益上,你要扣除房租和小孩上一般私立(质量不比 : 那个区的公立好)的学费。 : 我家上一个房子,涨上去的钱,扣除地税维护等,比房租多一些(没算省的income tax : ),但是持有房子几年,股市是下去了的,所以还是赚。也是在稀缺地段,uptown,但 : 是学区烂,否则就翻番了。 : : 8.
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q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 30 total return = capital gain + cash flow
房子还是好的investment, 主要的功能是diversification,特别是和自住结合在一起
后。照你这样说,美国股市也不可能维持高增长了。当然,美国买投资房很不合算,持
有成本太高。 反正我退休帐户放minimum,把钱用来还房贷,多出来的就往中国投。
their
just
,
inflation
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Right. It is laughable that people claim that they are "investing" in their : houses. If any investment that does not generate cashflow, you are not : investing in it. You are only hoping that a greater fool will come one day : and pay a higher price than you did. If no one comes, you are the greater : fool. (Unless, the price to rent ratio is very reasonable that you are just : avoiding rent payments with the house) : Over the long run, the housing price just keeps up with the wage-inflation, : there are dat
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q********m 发帖数: 3234 | 31 timing是很重要啊,我从来不追涨的,年初看过上海的房子,觉得有风险,没有下手。
反正我家就是喜欢买房子,股市俺没本事×4,房子就有过。 当然,美国的房子绝对不
适合投资。要自住和投资结合。
everybody
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : It is rather stupid to use a sample of recent data to prove anything. : In 2006, people were saying that housing price never goes down and everybody : makes money by buying a house. How did that drama end? : : tax
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l******c 发帖数: 2555 | 32 location, location, location
In Sillicon Valley, many house prices jumped 30 times in the last 30 years,
far better that stock
from 25k to 750k, downpayment is 5k. 15000% return in 30 years. |
L****n 发帖数: 12932 | 33
their
errh, 哪买不分红的公司股票(比如aapl)也不算investment了?
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Right. It is laughable that people claim that they are "investing" in their : houses. If any investment that does not generate cashflow, you are not : investing in it. You are only hoping that a greater fool will come one day : and pay a higher price than you did. If no one comes, you are the greater : fool. (Unless, the price to rent ratio is very reasonable that you are just : avoiding rent payments with the house) : Over the long run, the housing price just keeps up with the wage-inflation, : there are dat
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h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 34
There is difference between cashflow and dividend. It is perfectly fine
for company not to pay dividend but instead used it for future growth.
But if the company does not generate any cash and does not have
any hope of generating cash in the future, then it is not investment.
There is the old story about the market craze in sardine trading
when the sardines disappeared from their traditional waters in
Monterey, California. The commodity traders bid them up and
the price of a can of sardines soa
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : their : errh, 哪买不分红的公司股票(比如aapl)也不算investment了?
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L****n 发帖数: 12932 | 35
by your token, people who bought houses (actually apartments) in china a few
years back now selling at 3-4 times higher are all speculators, rather than
investors...which is fine but beyond the topic.
People buying houses to live in here effectively stop paying rent, isn't
that a positive cash flow? buying your own home is not different than buying
to rent out, except you getting the best renter you can possibly find-who
is never late on rent, who takes care of the property and who don't do
thi
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : There is difference between cashflow and dividend. It is perfectly fine : for company not to pay dividend but instead used it for future growth. : But if the company does not generate any cash and does not have : any hope of generating cash in the future, then it is not investment. : There is the old story about the market craze in sardine trading : when the sardines disappeared from their traditional waters in : Monterey, California. The commodity traders bid them up and : the price of a can of sardines soa
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h*******y 发帖数: 864 | 36
few
than
buying
life
Yes, only if they are paying anything close to the rational rent multiple.
Many people now are bidding up the price in places that still have
unreasonable rent multiple (i.e. the interest payment plus taxes, etc is
far higher than the rents). And they felt comfortable just because it is
an "upscale" neighborhood and other peoples are willing to pay the same
high price. A sound decision should based on its own merit, not based on
there are greater fools out there.
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : by your token, people who bought houses (actually apartments) in china a few : years back now selling at 3-4 times higher are all speculators, rather than : investors...which is fine but beyond the topic. : People buying houses to live in here effectively stop paying rent, isn't : that a positive cash flow? buying your own home is not different than buying : to rent out, except you getting the best renter you can possibly find-who : is never late on rent, who takes care of the property and who don't do : thi
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